India's population to surpass China's around 2024, says UN:

[StraightShooter]

That is from 2004.

Indian total fertility rate is now 2.4 and headed to 2.1 (replacement level) overall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_states_ranking_by_fertility_rate

I will include Pakistan as well to easily and sensibly counter the butthurt BS posted by a "think tank" earlier

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN-PK

Do the math yourself to figure out how many demographic development years separate the two now.



Actual inhabited area + arable land is roughly the same for both, hence effective realised population densities are similar too.

This graph that you posted is great and encouraging for India

Its actually good to see the big drops in fertility rate taking place in BIMARU since 2004.

Bihar has dropped by a full point (from 4.4 to 3.4)

UP almost by 2 points (from 4.5 to 2.7)

Madhya Pradesh by 1.5 points roughly (3.8 to 2.3)

Rajasthan by by about 1.3 points (form 3.7 to 2.3)

Its actually BIMARU that has been responsible for pushing down most of India's overall fertility rate (from 2.9 to about 2.2 now)...given they had the most to improve by back then.

Every state (however undeveloped they are to average) is now below Pakistan's TFR too.

India should hit replacement fertility overall by 2020 easily. By 2025 - 2030, every state will be at replacement fertility or below.

Very encouraging. Can't wait for that day.

 

[dreamer4eva]

Its actually good to see the big drops in fertility rate taking place in BIMARU since 2004.

Bihar has dropped by a full point (from 4.4 to 3.4)

UP almost by 2 points (from 4.5 to 2.7)

Madhya Pradesh by 1.5 points roughly (3.8 to 2.3)

Rajasthan by by about 1.3 points (form 3.7 to 2.3)

Its actually BIMARU that has been responsible for pushing down most of India's overall fertility rate (from 2.9 to about 2.2 now)...given they had the most to improve by back then.

Every state (however undeveloped they are to average) is now below Pakistan's TFR too.

India should hit replacement fertility overall by 2020 easily. By 2025 - 2030, every state will be at replacement fertility or below.

Good to know we are going in right direction 2.4 is almost same as replacement. Need to stay less than 2 for couple of decades to get things in order. IMO, Indian land mass should not have more than 800 million people...

 

[Han Patriot]

Alot of Indian members here were shouting demographics dividend. Why worried by the growth?

 

[SBUS-CXK]

Most of the population growth is due to Muslims.

India should consider implementing Chinese policy for Muslims.

So sorry, In China, Muslims (precisely ethnic minorities) do not have population restrictions. They can have more children, and they have all kinds of preferential policies.

 

[Mista]

India is actually doing pretty well demographically at her current level of development. At a TFR of 2.2, she has already reached replacement fertility levels. India's replacement rate is 0.1 higher than other countries' 2.1 because of her higher infant mortality rate and massive gender imbalance in favor of males.

India's TFR is not much higher than the US, Australia or France. I expect India's TFR to drop further as her economy and urbanization grows rapidly in the near future.

India's population seems to be expanding rapidly currently only because of the population momentum. Once the momentum finishes, it will slow down and follow the demographic trends of other more developed countries.

India is mimicking Japan’s population growth trend but with a 50 year lag. Which means that India's population will probably start shrinking 50 years later since Japan's population has already start shrinking.

 

[StraightShooter]

So sorry, In China, Muslims (precisely ethnic minorities) do not have population restrictions. They can have more children, and they have all kinds of preferential policies.

Then China is also doomed like India. I thought Chinese were wiser than India.

Alot of Indian members here were shouting demographics dividend. Why worried by the growth?

Growth should be comparable across the spectrum but in India Muslims grow 10% faster than the rest. That is the concern.

 

[Nilgiri]

Then China is also doomed like India. I thought Chinese were wiser than India.

Well their total muslim and minority % of total population is a lot lower than India...they can afford the leeway somewhat more.

But certain things are worrying certain Chinese members like @Dungeness

Growth should be comparable across the spectrum but in India Muslims grow 10% faster than the rest. That is the concern.

Important thing is that their birth rates (muslims) is also decreasing at a good clip now (and all trends show it will keep decreasing at same rate or more). There is just a lag between them and the non-muslim majority curves....but nowhere near enough to make them close to a majority down the road (when replacement or sub replacement is hit across the board).

 

[StraightShooter]

Well their total muslim and minority % of total population is a lot lower than India...they can afford the leeway somewhat more.

But certain things are worrying certain Chinese members like @Dungeness



Important thing is that their birth rates (muslims) is also decreasing at a good clip now (and all trends show it will keep decreasing at same rate or more). There is just a lag between them and the non-muslim majority curves....but nowhere near enough to make them close to a majority down the road (when replacement or sub replacement is hit across the board).

I would actually like to see Muslim rate go down and Sikh, Buddhist & Jain rates go up. That should balance/even out across the spectrum.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

Then China is also doomed like India. I thought Chinese were wiser than India.



Growth should be comparable across the spectrum but in India Muslims grow 10% faster than the rest. That is the concern.

Sorry, I don't know about the ethnic minority policy in India. But I don't think the population problem has anything to do with them. If you want to say "religious population", please ignore me.

 

[wiseone2]

Alot of Indian members here were shouting demographics dividend. Why worried by the growth?

What demographic dividend ?

 

[StraightShooter]

Sorry, I don't know about the ethnic minority policy in India. But I don't think the population problem has anything to do with them. If you want to say "religious population", please ignore me.

I am assuming in China, Muslims are treated same as all other Chinese but in India, Muslims have special laws and privileges that others do not have.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

I am assuming in China, Muslims are treated same as all other Chinese but in India, Muslims have special laws and privileges that others do not have.

I think you're confusing religion and population.

 

[StraightShooter]

I think you're confusing religion and population.

They both are interlinked. Tell me why different religions in India with same race and ethinicity have different growth rates?

The reason is simple. Muslims always make more babies to increase their population to influence the political policies of the country towards Islam. Read below what their religion advises its followers.

Firstly, what the Muslims should do is to try to have as many children as they can, because this is the command of the Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him), who said: “Marry the one who is loving and fertile, for I will be proud of your great numbers before the nations.” (Narrated by Abu Dawood, 2050; classed as saheeh by al-Albaani in Saheeh Abi Dawood, 1805).

Having more children increases the numbers of the ummah, and increasing the numbers of the ummah is a source of its glory, as Allaah says, reminding the Children of Israel of His blessings:

“and made you more numerous in man-power”

[al-Isra’ 15:6 – interpretation of the meaning]

And Shu’ayb said to his people:

“And remember when you were but few, and He multiplied you”

[al-A’raaf 7:86 – interpretation of the meaning]

No one can deny that having a large number is a source of pride and strength for the ummah, contrary to what those pessimists think who say that large numbers causes poverty and starvation in a nation.

If the ummah increases in number, puts its trust in Allaah and believes His promises as mentioned in the aayah,

https://islamqa.info/en/11885

 

[dreamer4eva]

I would actually like to see Muslim rate go down and Sikh, Buddhist & Jain rates go up. That should balance/even out across the spectrum.

We (Sikhs) are declining breed due to emigration and low birth rates. I think, our percentage in Indian population will shrink even further with the passage of time.

 

[StraightShooter]

We (Sikhs) are declining breed due to emigration and low birth rates. I think, our percentage in Indian population will shrink even further with the passage of time.

Unfortunately that is not good. Sikhs have protected India for centuries. India needs more Sikhs and less Muslims.