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The Ugly Truth About Pak Economy: A Brief History

@Mangus Ortus Novem , @Mentee , @Beethoven

You know my view has been that our corrupt, incompetent bureaucracy is the biggest hurdle in the development of Pakistan, are you guys following Dr. Ishrat's committee for transformation of bureaucracy, what they are coming up is abolition of CSS structure, they want it restructured around British/American model of public service, I know for sure IK and few team members are desperately trying for structural reforms but problem is this bureaucracy.

During last 10 years our economy has really been screwed and if you look at the finance secretaries during the last 11 years you ll be amazed to find one name repeatedly coming up, isn't it time while criminal investigations are being carried out against politicians this kind of people should also be put behind bars as abettors in all crimes.

Make a guess who owns the petrol pump next to Islamabad club?
Sir I don't know what this committee is upto
But with the new local bodies draft the govt has deliberately made provision for the DC to stay relevant instead they took out the very boss of the local bodies which is district mayor. It means nothing gonna change.

They were supposed to liberate sindh from the bureaucracy but couldnt even implement thier agenda where they are running the show.
 
Sir I don't know what this committee is upto
But with the new local bodies draft the govt has deliberately made provision for the DC to stay relevant instead they took out the very boss of the local bodies which is district mayor. It means nothing gonna change.

They were supposed to liberate sindh from the bureaucracy but couldnt even implement thier agenda where they are running the show.


Mentee,

DC provision was put in by the coconut clerks. This Buzdar is nothing but a humptydumpty.

#JinnahModel is the only way forward. Until we can defang the coconuts Pak can never advance.

Regarding this parasite Ishrat, @ps3linux , just look at his face... IK has zero capability in judging character.

What do you think about the assets of former NAB chairman.. why isn't NAB investigating him? And the LaWhore highcourt judge who resigned???

This entire system is a parasite that needs to be destroyed. Pak needs true democracy not this dimmocracy of Billo/Bill, Diesel and Nooraz...

A techonolgy based democracy can propel us forward otherwise it is going to be the same Swan Song.

Time for rebirth. Without Political transformation we can never have economic transformation.

Regards,

Mangus
 
Sir I don't know what this committee is upto
But with the new local bodies draft the govt has deliberately made provision for the DC to stay relevant instead they took out the very boss of the local bodies which is district mayor. It means nothing gonna change.

They were supposed to liberate sindh from the bureaucracy but couldnt even implement thier agenda where they are running the show.

That my friend is the collective competence of those who were working on local bodies reforms, I am sure they would have okayed the draft presented to them by the bureaucracy.

Mentee,

DC provision was put in by the coconut clerks. This Buzdar is nothing but a humptydumpty.

#JinnahModel is the only way forward. Until we can defang the coconuts Pak can never advance.

Regarding this parasite Ishrat, @ps3linux , just look at his face... IK has zero capability in judging character.

What do you think about the assets of former NAB chairman.. why isn't NAB investigating him? And the LaWhore highcourt judge who resigned???

This entire system is a parasite that needs to be destroyed. Pak needs true democracy not this dimmocracy of Billo/Bill, Diesel and Nooraz...

A techonolgy based democracy can propel us forward otherwise it is going to be the same Swan Song.

Time for rebirth. Without Political transformation we can never have economic transformation.

Regards,

Mangus

You sir would be labelled as anarchist in power corridors, have you followed cricket in IK era do you remember a cricketer by the name of Mansoor Akhtar, buzzzzzzdar reminds me of him.
 
I am sure they would have okayed the draft presented to them by the bureaucracy
This is the real deal

What do you think about the assets of former NAB chairman.. why isn't NAB investigating him? And the LaWhore highcourt judge who resigned???

The thing is in this system someone have to have a license to go scot free if we want to crackdown on bureaucracy and politicians. And right now only NAB guys and the judges have it. A necessary evil you know

Regarding this parasite Ishrat, @ps3linux , just look at his face... IK has zero capability in judging character.

Yeah he does look like the Asian twin of count Dracula :lol:
 
@zulu @ps3linux @Dubious @Mentee @Beethoven @Retired Troll @PakSword @TheTallGuy @Verve@Reddington

Hybridwar, #EconomicTerrorism, dead instituitions, paralysed judicial system... and what is left in under instituitional capture of #CriminalEnterprise.

These are the facts.

And within these ground conditions current government has to balance the budget, redeem about $30Bln debt in two years. Boost exports, reduce imports, create a tiny buffer in Forex.

With a political system in complete paralysis due to save-the-leader-from-jail political parties every single issue in the parliment or outside of it is becoming a bone of contention.

The laws that need to be passed, NFC award that Must be revisited to safeguard against inflation, a deep structural and instituitional reform that is needed to enable/facilitate an economic recovery and sustainable growth...

To completely stop moneylaundering and eliminate money exchanges... is being delayed... must have happened with far greater vengence.. for now only cosmetic actions to fulfill minimum FATF requirements...

It is becoming increasingly clear that the current government or for that matter any party in place today would have not been able to do the required. Because, the political system is designed to gain power and not deliver on economic, social or industrial front. Simply because there is no democracy in the political parites but rather Bhutparasti

The question that arrises here is: Can the current setup do more than firefighting? Even if it is honest?

Pak is facing a multidimensional attack and potency of hybridwar is becoming more lethal with Pak State on the backfoot.

At the moment no out-of-the-box approach is apparent from the present government. Whereas the need for deep change is needed...without edging towards public unrest.


https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-hybrid-war-on-hybrid-war-in-pakisan.616912/
 
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@zulu @ps3linux @Dubious @Mentee @Beethoven @Retired Troll @PakSword @TheTallGuy @Verve

Hybridwar, #EconomicTerrorism, dead instituitions, paralysed judicial system... and what is left in under instituitional capture of #CriminalEnterprise.

These are the facts.

And within these ground conditions current government has to balance the budget, redeem about $30Bln debt in two years. Boost exports, reduce imports, create a tiny buffer in Forex.

With a political system in complete paralysis due to save-the-leader-from-jail political parties every single issue in the parliment or outside of it is becoming a bone of contention.

The laws that need to be passed, NFC award that Must be revisited to safeguard against inflation, a deep structural and instituitional reform that is needed to enable/facilitate an economic recovery and sustainable growth...

To completely stop moneylaundering and eliminate money exchanges... is being delayed... must have happened with far greater vengence.. for now only cosmetic actions to fulfill minimum FATF requirements...

It is becoming increasingly clear that the current government or for that matter any party in place today would have not been able to do the required. Because, the political system is designed to gain power and not deliver on economic, social or industrial front. Simply because there is no democracy in the political parites but rather Bhutparasti

The question that arrises here is: Can the current setup do more than firefighting? Even if it is honest?

Pak is facing a multidimensional attack and potency of hybridwar is becoming more lethal with Pak State on the backfoot.

At the moment no out-of-the-box approach is apparent from the present government. Whereas the need for deep change is needed...without edging towards public unrest.


https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-hybrid-war-on-hybrid-war-in-pakisan.616912/
You missed out a very important point....expanding tax base
 
Growth rate slowing to 3+% was going to happen anyway. Regardless, who was in power.

Yet the intended goal of PKR devaluation was a little mismanaged or beter said sabotaged to a degree by the mafia within the system.

A far beter approach would have been 500-700% increase in duties on anything other than feul and edible oils....if an outright ban on imports was not possible for one reason or an other... barring only imports of machinery related to export industry... that too with clear certification.

The government has failed so far to crackdown on money exchanges and hundi dealers... a source of moneylaundering and blackmoney recycling.

Had IK government a preplanned game to manage deficit and balance-of-payment crisis... it would have done these thigns in first three months...

A simplified and single tax on everyone above the poverty-line.... would have achieved revenue goals as well...also providing relief to about 60% of the population, the actual povertyline.

With current style of recovery/economic management it goingt to cast another five years before actual economic reforms can take place towards medium and longterm sustainable growth and industrialisation...

As long the current rentenier mafia remains in control of the economy/politics no fundamental change is possible.

A country of youth can't afford to remain hostage to #CriminalEnterprise for long... it is basically a National Security Issue.

Pak can never attain its true potential nor can it utilise its strategic position if it carries on the same socio-economic-political path.

A fundamental rethink is necessary at strategic level.

Who has the capacity of such organised, structured thinking? #MarasiMedia? #LifafaJurnos? #MarasiPoliticians?
 
With a interest rate hovering above double digit business would be retiring their bank loans, SME sector is screwed if they borrow from the banks, business borrowing will be in the negative. Banks will be making tons of money and on the other side their NPLs will increase exponentially. Since the necessary trigger for economic growth is missing means viable borrowing rates, with rampant inflation YoY even 3% is more likely a pipe dream.

Asad Umer and his as**ole brother never did like them both, spoiled children of general who think they walk on water pure incompetence of IK and team, devaluation of currency could have been controlled easily but just to screw the country and benefit the mafiotic businessmen ruppee was allowed to depreciate in a landslide mode rather than gradual.
 
1990s.

The democracy of NS and BB... get-rich-quick-schemes. Zero policy of any kind.

1992 Money Bill to facilitate money laundering courtesy #EconomicHitman appearing on TV these days.


.

In the 1990s foreign aid dried up. The cold war ended. the writer did not get the memo
 
Sir I don't know what this committee is upto
But with the new local bodies draft the govt has deliberately made provision for the DC to stay relevant instead they took out the very boss of the local bodies which is district mayor. It means nothing gonna change.

They were supposed to liberate sindh from the bureaucracy but couldnt even implement thier agenda where they are running the show.


The main reason is 'Control'.

In a proper local body system, the Town Mayor or Nazim as we call him has the sole charge of the affairs of his/her area. This is what the grass-root is all about. However, this means that if the local Nazim/Mayor belongs to a different political party, the Provincial gov't would have a lot of say into the running of the Town/Tehsil/Village except allocation of funds.

A DC, on the other hand, is a government employee and his promotion/wellbeing is dependent upon what the 'Higher ups' think about him. He would, therefore, follow orders of the Provencial gov't. It is an indirect way of having the final say over the affairs down to the village level.

IMHO having a DC in addition to the Nazim, undermines true democracy and indicates inherent the autocratic attitude of the political leaders.
 
However, this means that if the local Nazim/Mayor belongs to a different political party, the Provincial gov't would have a lot of say into the running of the Town/Tehsil/Village except allocation of funds.

Would? Or would NOT?

Controlling funding would still remain a potent weapon to keep everyone in line, I would suggest.
 
Would? Or would NOT?

Controlling funding would still remain a potent weapon to keep everyone in line, I would suggest.

Correct. Regrettably, there is no such thing as 'City Tax' in Pakistan. During my time big cities earned some income through 'Octroi' but there are very avenues where smaller Councils can have income independently.

Majority of the funds are allocated to the Province under NFC award which then trickles down to the Baldia Councils. The only exception is special packages directly awarded to Metropolitan areas such as Karachi by the Federal gov't for specific projects. It is unavoidable that the Provoncil Gov't would some control over some of the areas of the city gov't, but with DC, it would control many local administrative matters as well.
 
Here is another article from an Economist published in the Dawn.

Don’t blame the IMF
S. Akbar ZaidiUpdated May 18, 2019
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The writer is a political economist.

THERE is little disagreement that Pakistan’s economy is in a disastrous state. Even the prime minister and Pakistan’s last finance minister have acknowledged this truth, publicly. In fact, the last elected politician to hold the job as finance minister was fired precisely because the economy was in such a mess.

Not only is every key economic indicator in poor shape, all indications suggest that things are going to get much, much worse. Pakistan’s economy is going to slow down to levels not seen for more than a decade, with inflation and unemployment both reaching proportions not seen for a decade. And this is just the beginning.

With the government having just signed onto yet another IMF programme, it is important to emphasise the point, that it is not the IMF which is to blame for Pakistan’s economic condition — not for the past nor for where we are now, and also not for what is about to come. Rest assured, Pakistan’s economy is going to be severely constrained over the next few years, with higher inflation, more unemployment and lower growth, and with a far greater burden on working people than what has been the case for many years. Yet, the IMF is not to be held responsible for the state of Pakistan’s economy.

Rest assured, Pakistan’s economy is going to be severely constrained over the next few years.

The entire responsibility for the wreck that is the Pakistani economy lies squarely on the shoulders of Pakistan’s ruling and propertied elite, both civilian and in uniform, since both have been and continue to hold power in and out of office. There should be no ambiguity about apportioning blame and responsibility here, and one needs to stop blaming the IMF for the mayhem created by this ruling elite.

It is not the IMF which has brought Pakistan’s economy to its knees, to rock bottom, not the IMF which has forced Pakistan to beg for money from supposedly friendly countries, and certainly not the IMF which has made the government of Pakistan finally run to the IMF for loans. The ruling elite, those who hold office and those who hold the strings of those who hold office, are all responsible for managing the economy the way they have over the last few years and over the last decades. This truth can be clearly explained by one simple economic policy measure and non-measure.

From the Musharraf military dictatorship, to the elected governments of Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari, and now to the Imran Khan government, all have gone to the IMF seeking a ‘bailout’ and assistance to stop the country’s deteriorating economic condition.

Yet all these governments, along with their allies and vested interests, have been the ones to have caused a situation where they have been forced to go to the IMF in the first place. They only need the IMF because they fail and refuse to undertake economic reforms since these would hurt their own interests. One key indicator regarding the state of the economy is that of fiscal deficit, that of having greater, unaffordable expenditure and lower revenue or having insufficient money to spend.

If a government is not going to tax its rich, it will always be short of money to spend, no matter how well intentioned and well meaning its social welfare programmes may be. If it has high and increasing defence costs and has to pay back interest on loans taken to pay for defence and other expenditures, it will always have a shortfall of money because it refuses to tax the rich.

This is a circulatory argument: With no taxes on the rich and the elite, with the particularity of Pakistan’s political economy based on essential defence expenditures, and with a shortfall of revenue, there will only be more borrowing, more debt, and so on. The beginning and end of the problem and its solution is simply this: tax the Pakistani elite and the rich. What has the IMF got to do with this gross negligence and failure of Pakistan’s ruling elite? Because the government refuses to raise resources, it has to borrow from the IMF. The IMF is not responsible for the budget deficit ending up near 7.5 per cent of GDP this year.

It must be remembered that it is not the IMF which has come begging to the government of Imran Khan to borrow a pittance ie $6 billion; it is, in fact, the numerous governments of Pakistan which have gone begging for money.

This is simply because we do not raise enough resources — taxes — to be able to spend effectively, whether it is defence or development. If sufficient revenue were raised, there would be no need to beg for money, but in a country where every polio campaign, social welfare measure and women’s support programme are funded by one donor or the other, only because the ruling elite refuses to tax itself, going to the IMF becomes inevitable. But don’t blame the IMF for this.

Moreover, as a lender, the IMF is fully entitled to raise supposedly harsh conditionalities, only because it wants to ensure that its loans are returned, with interest. Banks, and even individuals, don’t lend unless they expect and get assurances that their money will be returned, and need to know about a business plan. As does the IMF, and it is fully entitled to do so. If you don’t like their conditionality, don’t borrow from them. Don’t blame the IMF for its stringent demands.

Since the government has signed an agreement with the IMF, and as the economy deteriorates noticeably over the next two to three years, we can expect those in office and the rest of the elite to blame the IMF for Pakistan’s economic disaster. Yet it is not the IMF that is to be held responsible, but our own elite, elected, unelected, and those who continue to lead Pakistan down the IMF path, yet again. Accountability must begin and end with our elite, not with the IMF.

The writer is a political economist.

Published in Dawn, May 18th, 2019
https://www.dawn.com/news/1483036/dont-blame-the-imf
 
@Reddington @zulu @PakSword @ps3linux @RIWWIR @war&peace @Verve @Dubious


As we discussed early... EconomicHit is in full swing... the local players as well.

The opposition is working overtime for Marshal Law... since under military rule... conviction will not hold in international courts... and recovery of foreign assets of supreme leaders won't be possible.

What is terrible... is the paralysis of this government... on every front... the IK gov is totally frozen... seems like shell-schock... Pak State in the same attitude...

By not being proactive in controlling moneylaundering and money-exchanges... the run-on-dollar was written on the wall... but neither the State nor the government did anything... and in the process more Paks came under the povertyline...

The system in its present form is an Existential Threat to Pak State and Pak People


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/470008-capital-suggestion-weaponized-finance


The US Department of Treasury now has a definite – -and defined – role in “advancing US national security interests.” Ian Bremmer, the founder of Eurasia Group, asserts that “instead of fighting countries militarily, the US can now cripple them financially.” Bremmer told Yahoo Finance that the “almighty dollar is more powerful than nuclear weapons.” According to Ian Bremmer, “George Washington carried a musket. Franklin Roosevelt sent in heavy bombers. The [new] armament of choice is weaponization of finance.”

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