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Why Osama's death is not good news for India

noksss

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Apr 17, 2010
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The Americans are rejoicing that the man behind the September 11 terror attacks is eventually dead. It is a shot in the arm for US President Barack Obama and boosts his ratings in the run up to re-election for president, for which he has announced his candidature.


The Indians are thumping the desks as if to say: we told you that Pakistan supports terror! They will now plead with the world to pressurise Pakistan to dismantle its terror network and stop using terror as an instrument of state policy against India.

The Indian government is unwilling to fight her own battles but will now equate 9/11 with her own 26/11 attacks on Mumbai and ask Pakistan to convict/extradite those responsible for the Mumbai attacks.

The Pakistani army and government are unusually quiet. They are eagerly waiting for the US to quit Afghanistan.

Sections of the Indian media shall keep on debating whether the US killed Osama bin Laden with or without Pakistani support. Questions shall be raised how the Pakistani army could not be aware that Osama lived in Abbottabad, a military cantonment which is about hour's drive from Islamabad.

We shall not know what exactly transpired between the US and Pakistan but here is a possible scenario.

Obama had publicly declared that American troops would begin to leave Afghanistan by July 2011. At the end of ten years, billions of dollars spent and hundreds of soldiers dead, the President would have had no results to show his people.

On the other hand, the Pakistanis have managed to strike a balance between the conflicting demands of the US and, former allies, the Taliban. However, the US was getting impatient so the Pakistanis were under pressure. Another cause for concern was archrival India's good work in Afghanistan. Sooner or later it would result in a pro-Indian (read as anti-Pakistani) sentiment amongst the Afghan people.

The US wanted Osama while the Pakistani's wanted to regain strategic depth in Afghanistan. So there could be a deal.

Pakistan would assist the US in tracking down Osama (probably they always knew where he was). American helicopters could not have used Pakistani airspace without its knowledge. To avoid a backlash from the Pakistani people and Taliban it was agreed that Osama would be killed by American forces. The Pakistani army and government would remain silent and claim to be ignorant.

In return the US would allow Pakistan to regain strategic depth in Afghanistan as long as it resulted in no further attacks on US soil.

By getting the prize scalp of Osama Bin Laden, Obama would see his ratings leapfrog. He would now be seen as a 'man in charge' who can put the US on the high growth trajectory once again.

The Pakistanis would have the Americans off their back. More importantly, a friendly regime in Afghanistan would allow them to focus on India and resume jihad in Jammu and Kashmir/rest of India. These objectives were important enough to make Pakistan sacrifice Osama.

Note that 'Op Topac' was launched in J&K in the late 1980's only after the Soviets left Afghanistan and Pakistanis achieved nuclear capability (today it is believed to have the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world).



Further, an arrangement to tap Afghanistan's natural resources might have been reached between the US, China and Pakistan. It would torpedo the plans of a consortium of Indian steel companies who are keen to bid for the iron ore mines there.

It would be safe to assume that Pakistani actions take into account gains for China who would like to fill the strategic vacuum after US' exit. Also geo-politically, Afghanistan becomes strategically significant for China as China has developed sizeable strategic stakes in Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian Republics.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh might gloat over the Indo-US nuclear deal and unilateral concessions to Pakistan but the US is guided by only one principle -- its own national interest.

Notwithstanding, "the UPA government letter to US Undersecretary of State William Burns on September 10, 2008 committing India to import a minimum of 10,000 mw of nuclear-generating capacity from the U.S" homeland security is uppermost in American minds. Its importance overrides business deals and jobs.

Unlike the 1990's and 2001, where terrorism in J&K was an area of focus, the Indian Army would have to also deal with an aggressive Chinese presence in , Akshai Chin, Uttaranchal, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. An unstable and unfriendly Nepal could add to the challenge.

We hope the forces are prepared to fight a simultaneous war on various fronts, not as what former Army Chief V P Malik said during Kargil, "We will fight with whatever we have".


India must focus on how to counter the Chinese threat, directly and through its pawn, Pakistan. Weakening and killing of domestic industry (as China has done to the US) or illegal Chinese manufacturers faking drugs that undermine Indian brands should also be construed as an indirect act of war even it sounds farfetched.

India must continue good work in Afghanistan and resist US pressure to scale down its efforts. Use the visit of Bollywood stars to strengthen bonds with the ordinary Afghan.

The media could help by analysing threats objectively without being jingoistic.

For example has any television channel or paper explored the possibility of the helicopter that carried Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Dorjee Khandu, being sabotaged by Chinese agents!

After all Khandu, the only Buddhist chief minister in India is a follower of the Tibetan leader Dalai Lama who visited Tawang on Khandu's invitation in 2009. China had expressed its objections to the visit.


National Security is paramount. Indira Gandhi showed India the way in 1971 and KPS Gill in Punjab in the 1990's. We need a strong and decisive leader to safeguard India's national interest.

India must beware!

link:Why Osama's death is not good news for India - Rediff.com News
 
The operation was exclusively carried by americans.
If ISI and pak gov would have been involve they would have never allowed US forces to kill OBL deep in pak territory hence violating its sovereignity and respect.
On the other hand they would have taken OBL to some other place may be near afghan border and then would have killed him.
 
The operation was exclusively carried by americans.
If ISI and pak gov would have been involve they would have never allowed US forces to kill OBL deep in pak territory hence violating its sovereignity and respect.
On the other hand they would have taken OBL to some other place may be near afghan border and then would have killed him.

If Pakistan had intervened in any way, OBL's supporters would be targetting Pakistan. The only way was for Pakistan to completely get out of the way and let the Americans carry out the operation.

On topic, the analysis is correct. The Indian gloating will turn to hand-wringing as soon as the US hands over the reins of control in Afghanistan to China.
 
this is a very true scenario....we dont want alqaeda to trouble pakistan hence let the americans do it....you dont burn somebodys garbage in a park in fear that the authorities might take action against you...you tell them to do it yourselves...same here.
 
The conspiracy flu has blown downwind from Pakistan to India

Buddy which part u are saying is conspiracy . the point is the pakistani's dont want india to gain a stratergic depth in Afghan which is evident from the Embassy bombing in kabul and also american are more intrested about their security compared to india's which is not wrong so india has to decide its own way action in Afghan and improve our defence for ces capability to face any threat in the future thats what the artcile says . I think the chinese agent thing may be a consipiracy
 
If Pakistan had intervened in any way, OBL's supporters would be targetting Pakistan. The only way was for Pakistan to completely get out of the way and let the Americans carry out the operation.

So you are saying that pakistan intelligence cant move a man without OBL supporters knowing. Thats great accolade for ISI.
 
It's good that some Indians have started to realize that this was a strategic victory for the ISI & China. Pakistan has clearly out-thought India here in the Afghanistan scenario. If I was India, I'd be worried about its future in Afghanistan. The US has truly left its "ally" India high & dry in Afghanistan.
 
It's good that some Indians have started to realize that this was a strategic victory for the ISI, China & the US of course. If I was India, I'd be worried about its future in Afghanistan. The US has truly left its "ally" India high & dry in Afghanistan.

The Traditional Pakistani comment:We"ll see India after US leaves

Actually,Once the Americans vacate India is free to conduct any espionage operations in Pakistan which previously clashed with Americans interests.

However its true that China will fill in the Afghan vaccum
 
The Traditional Pakistani comment:We"ll see India after US leaves

Actually,Once the Americans vacate India is free to conduct any espionage operations in Pakistan which previously clashed with Americans interests.

Pakistan never severed its contacts with the Haqqani group, Hekmetyar group, Mullah Omar for precisely this day. I think it's a joke that you think you can conduct espionage operations in Pakistan without the US's presence, you don't have the same kinds of links Pakistan has with Afghanistan. Pakistan is 'ethnically the same', the Pashtuns are the highest ethnic population of Afghanistan, & Pakistan has more than twice the number of Pakhtuns in Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan & the ISI knows every inch of Afghanistan, knows it inside out. You just don't have the same type of command in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, I see very troubling times for India, as China & Pakistan will team up inside Afghanistan & invest there in its natural resources, which will bring prosperity for the Afghan citizens, as well as maintaining a Pakistan friendly government (probably the Haqqani network sharing power with some other faction). India will be eaten alive if it tries to use Afghanistan soil against Pakistan. If the US couldn't win the war inside Afghanistan, what chance does India has?
 
Pakistan never severed its contacts with the Haqqani group, Hekmetyar group, Mullah Omar for precisely this day. I think it's a joke that you think you can conduct espionage operations in Pakistan without the US's presence, you don't have the same kinds of links Pakistan has with Afghanistan. Pakistan is 'ethnically the same', the Pashtuns are the highest ethnic population of Afghanistan, & Pakistan has more than twice the number of Pakhtuns in Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan & the ISI knows every inch of Afghanistan, knows it inside out. You just don't have the same type of command in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, I see very troubling times for India, as China & Pakistan will team up inside Afghanistan & invest there in its natural resources, which will bring prosperity for the Afghan citizens, as well as maintaining a Pakistan friendly government (probably the Haqqani network sharing power with some other faction). India will be eaten alive if it tries to use Afghanistan soil against Pakistan. If the US couldn't win the war inside Afghanistan, what chance does India has?

good joke..by the way can u guys ever do something without china??
 
Pakistan never severed its contacts with the Haqqani group, Hekmetyar group, Mullah Omar for precisely this day. I think it's a joke that you think you can conduct espionage operations in Pakistan without the US's presence, you don't have the same kinds of links Pakistan has with Afghanistan. Pakistan is 'ethnically the same', the Pashtuns are the highest ethnic population of Afghanistan, & Pakistan has more than twice the number of Pakhtuns in Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan & the ISI knows every inch of Afghanistan, knows it inside out. You just don't have the same type of command in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, I see very troubling times for India, as China & Pakistan will team up inside Afghanistan & invest there in its natural resources, which will bring prosperity for the Afghan citizens, as well as maintaining a Pakistan friendly government (probably the Haqqani network sharing power with some other faction). India will be eaten alive if it tries to use Afghanistan soil against Pakistan. If the US couldn't win the war inside Afghanistan, what chance does India has?

well if pak and china will team up in afghanistan , india can also team up with iran who has similar interests in a stable afg with no taliban (we r not funding chabahar port and highways connecting iran afg for nothing ;) ). its not about winning the war in afghanistan ...india has a favourable image among masses in afg and will use it to its advantage.
 
It's good that some Indians have started to realize that this was a strategic victory for the ISI & China. Pakistan has clearly out-thought India here in the Afghanistan scenario. If I was India, I'd be worried about its future in Afghanistan. The US has truly left its "ally" India high & dry in Afghanistan.

half ur country is bombed in the last year..more than 30000 pakistanis were killed,..ur economy is ruined...pakistanis are so embarrassed that they are now calling themselves indians...

and u say we are left high and dry..huh!!
 

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