What's new

Why China hasn't abandoned North Korea – and why Wikileaks is a work of flawed genius

CardSharp

ELITE MEMBER
Apr 17, 2010
9,355
0
5,995
To put a stop to the stupid theories abound on this forum....

China has not abandoned North Korea and won’t any time soon. Nor is the country about to collapse.

That’s not what you’d think from reading coverage of Wikileaks today. But what we claim Wikileaks is saying is – probably – wrong on this point, and a lot else. And we shouldn’t be surprised at that.

This is the big flaw in the Wikileaks exercise, and not, as some of my colleagues have said, that it only confirms what we always suspected. We shouldn’t be surprised that there are no big state secrets in the revelations. These are diplomatic cables, and countries are not in the habit of giving away their most treasured secrets to each other at embassy drinks parties. When they do share secrets, they do it with a much higher security classification.

The documents are full of interest, however, particularly in the detail. Having just returned from Yemen, I found it important what the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi – a man who knows a thing or two about the Gulf – had to say. He was convinced that the Iranians were channelling arms to a Shia rebellion there. When this possibility has been raised with western diplomats in the past, they have rather poo-pooed the idea as lacking evidence: well, there is no smoking gun, but it’s useful to know that someone credible is convinced of it.

There are hundreds of such snippets in the documents – all adding to the sum of human knowledge. On the other hand, these documents are all – and I don’t know how to say this without offending my diplomat friends – the work of diplomats. Diplomats are clever and better resourced than journalists, but they are only human. They make mistakes. Some of these are faithfully recorded – such as the assessment by the Chinese that Kim Jong-il was not about to appoint his youngest son to succeed him, as ill-informed gossip at the time said. I was particularly pleased to read that report from February 2009 because, also using high-level sources, I had written exactly the same thing even before the Chinese. The egg is on both our faces.

Moreover, diplomats are duty bound to pass on everything they hear – and sometimes let the analysis and assessment come later. Half of what we are reading is first impressions and gossip.

Then, finally, in some countries diplomats are not particularly high up the pecking order and they may not be in the loop quite as much as they may hope they are. I rather suspect that was the case in the UK under Gordon Brown, apart from anywhere else.

It is above all true in China, and so when a South Korean diplomat passes on the opinion of a Chinese diplomat that “younger Chinese officials” would not be averse to a unified Korea, it doesn’t quite mean the same thing as if a British foreign secretary were laying out a view to parliament.

What the cables conclude, and what you’d expect from diplomats, is that for every suggestion there is a counter-suggestion. The same cable – from this year – that talks about the younger Chinese officials has this to say:

Beijing had “no will” to use its economic leverage to force a change in Pyongyang’s policies and the DPRK leadership “knows it.” (South Korean diplomat) Chun acknowledged that the Chinese genuinely wanted a denuclearized North Korea, but the PRC was also content with the status quo.”
Hardly abandoned, then.

The cable also points out that the Chinese officials quoted are a sharp contrast to their immediate boss, a hardline Marxist.

The cable says North Korea will collapse within two to three years after the death of Kim Jong-il. But meanwhile another report says that Kim Jong-il seems to be reasonably well and sharp – and presumably able to hang on a bit. He hadn’t even had to give up booze, as has been claimed.

And so on.

What none of the cables make clear is how unimportant the Chinese foreign ministry is in setting key matters of policy. The foreign minister isn’t even in the Politburo, the 24-strong committee that rules China (and think how important the 25th man in the British hierarchy would be, whoever he or she is). Dai Bingguo, a Chinese diplomat quoted as a senior official is reasonably important as a state councillor – a sort of second-line functionary. But he is all the more cautious as a result.

He Yafei, who said that China viewed North Korea as a “spoiled child”? Well, even I’ve met him. He is a career diplomat chiefly involved in relations with the US, which – as would be the case in any country – often involves saying things that the US wants to hear.

What if, on the other hand, we were to judge China’s view on North Korea by its actions? It took North Korea’s side over the sinking of a South Korean ship earlier this year, and has suggested that any worsening of the situation there now would be America’s fault.

Meanwhile, in 2007 – when exactly the same suggestions of China’s “frustration” with North Korea were being made – it was still allowing North Korea to ship missile parts to Iran from Beijing Airport.

Well, I think you get my point. In fact, throughout the Chinese state apparatus there is a split between the eminently reasonable people journalists, diplomats and politicians meet – all of whom are keen to be reassuring as to China’s long-term purposes – and the often more shadowy figures, including the generals and the Party princelings who control the banks and arms companies – who we don’t meet yet have a considerable input and maintain their own international contacts.

I don’t want to scupper good stories, but it is fun apart from anything else to see how British and American papers cover the same issues. The Guardian – and I am not gloating as the Telegraph followed the same line – had the headline today: “China ‘ready to abandon North Korea’.” I have the International Herald Tribune, partner of the New York Times which also had access to the cables, on the desk in front of me. They are so confident of their version of the story that they have headlined it: “Guesses on North Korea”.

Not a great way to sell a story, I’ll grant you. But are they wrong?


Why China hasn't abandoned North Korea ? and why Wikileaks is a work of flawed genius – Telegraph Blogs
 
Last edited:
It is above all true in China, and so when a South Korean diplomat passes on the opinion of a Chinese diplomat that “younger Chinese officials” would not be averse to a unified Korea, it doesn’t quite mean the same thing as if a British foreign secretary were laying out a view to parliament.


Please take note.
 
we don't have young officials, least of all on the national level, and no nation does except feudal monarchies.

to crawl from being the assistant secretary of a department of a village/district government (which is indeed where most officials start off) to being the premier literally does take 40-50 years. the youngest people with any sort of ability to decide are 40-50. this is the most dangerous time, as the 40-50 year olds were born in 50's and 60's, and have low self esteem + have risk of being brainwashed and demoralized by american propaganda in the 80's.
 
It is above all true in China, and so when a South Korean diplomat passes on the opinion of a Chinese diplomat that “younger Chinese officials” would not be averse to a unified Korea, it doesn’t quite mean the same thing as if a British foreign secretary were laying out a view to parliament.
Please take note.
Absolutely we should take note. It is always the younger generation that make progress. The younger generation of diplomats, bureaucrats, military officers, and businessmen have not only the burden of sustaining their country at its current state but to look forward and try to prepare the country for expected and unexpected events, local and global. No one expected the sudden and ignoble collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite the acrimonious divorce between the USSR and China with the former retaining controls of the smaller communist states all over the world, China remained the second most visible symbol of communist ideology worldwide and best in Asia. Now that the USSR is no more and China has moved on from the failures of applied communism, pragmatic young Chinese leaders have no choice but to prepare their country to get rid of this Cold War relic that is a political and financial millstone around China's neck. They will do so without consulting their elders.

Take note indeed.
 
Absolutely we should take note. It is always the younger generation that make progress. The younger generation of diplomats, bureaucrats, military officers, and businessmen have not only the burden of sustaining their country at its current state but to look forward and try to prepare the country for expected and unexpected events, local and global. No one expected the sudden and ignoble collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite the acrimonious divorce between the USSR and China with the former retaining controls of the smaller communist states all over the world, China remained the second most visible symbol of communist ideology worldwide and best in Asia. Now that the USSR is no more and China has moved on from the failures of applied communism, pragmatic young Chinese leaders have no choice but to prepare their country to get rid of this Cold War relic that is a political and financial millstone around China's neck. They will do so without consulting their elders.

Take note indeed.

Oops it actual turns out to be the foreign vice minister (old guy). My mistake.
 
Absolutely we should take note. It is always the younger generation that make progress. The younger generation of diplomats, bureaucrats, military officers, and businessmen have not only the burden of sustaining their country at its current state but to look forward and try to prepare the country for expected and unexpected events, local and global. No one expected the sudden and ignoble collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite the acrimonious divorce between the USSR and China with the former retaining controls of the smaller communist states all over the world, China remained the second most visible symbol of communist ideology worldwide and best in Asia. Now that the USSR is no more and China has moved on from the failures of applied communism, pragmatic young Chinese leaders have no choice but to prepare their country to get rid of this Cold War relic that is a political and financial millstone around China's neck. They will do so without consulting their elders.

Take note indeed.

can you name some "young" national leaders? just name 1, because i can't name any under 50 and i live here. are there any young national leaders in the US? seems to me like the vast majority of top officials in every country are old men.
 
can you name some "young" national leaders? just name 1, because i can't name any under 50 and i live here. are there any young national leaders in the US? seems to me like the vast majority of top officials in every country are old men.
Good Heavens...!!! The word 'young' here is not to imply a certain age or age group...!!! It imply there are those who are for now in the inferior positions in government, by they in their 20s or 50s, who takes orders from their elders and execute them in their daily duties. It is they who will rise to positions of top leadership as time goes by. That is nature. Let me guess...The Chinese government is exempt from the laws of human sociology just as Chinese weapons are exempt from the laws of physics.

Unbelievable...!!! :rolleyes:
 
Good Heavens...!!! The word 'young' here is not to imply a certain age or age group...!!! It imply there are those who are for now in the inferior positions in government, by they in their 20s or 50s, who takes orders from their elders and execute them in their daily duties. It is they who will rise to positions of top leadership as time goes by. That is nature. Let me guess...The Chinese government is exempt from the laws of human sociology just as Chinese weapons are exempt from the laws of physics.

Unbelievable...!!! :rolleyes:

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom