What If the China Bubble Bursts?

[IndoCarib]

Typical post by an indian put up in hope and no more or less than an incredible wet dream

probably you didnt see the authors name ! It is not Indian. Now you may say KEN MILLER's incredible wet dream ??

 

[Chinese Century]

jim rogers has said many times that the indian economy that is based on massive debts and deficits will eventually have a greece like moment.

indian debt to gdp is 71%, that is MASSIVE.
indian deficits are close to 10% of gdp every year, higher than the US deficts.
in addition to that, india runs a massive trade deficits thus runs a MASSIVE current account deficit,
all that so called growth in the indian economy is debt based consumption, indians are getting poorer as they think they are getting richer.

that whole indian economy is a full blown ponzi scheme filled with debt.
india is still a debtor nation, china is the largest creditor nation in the world.

i have been to india a couple of years ago, the infrastructure is dreadful, the roads are fi!thy and none of them know how to drive a vehicle. some african countries have better infrastructure than india.
the indian population is growing too fast, that is going to be a MASSIVE problem for india when they dont have the energy resources and food resources to satisfy that fast growing population. uncontrolled population increases become a problem, not a positive thing. china knew this in the 1970's and introduced the 1 child policy. the drain on resources for a nation to supply its rising population will be massive.
india dont have long term thinking, they make up things as they go along, if india keeps this population increase up, india wont have the energy, food and raw materials to satisfy the increasing population and those people will be to absolute poverty because the indian government wont be able to provide those finite resources.

china knew a fast increasing population is not a good thing, its a bad thing when u reach a certain number of people in a country. its a massive drag on all types of resoucrs from land, financial, energy, food, water and raw materials.

india will soon realise they have made a huge blunder by not controlling their population growth.
china realised in way back in the 1970s due to long term planning. china is smart and forward thinking, india just does everything the western world tells them to do and the indian ego does not allow them to see the blunders they have made. india is letting that MASSIVE ego cloud their judgement from reality.

 

[mikkix]

this burst of bubble might burst India surely, and ready to take on the US...

 

[Vassnti]

China's boom is based on tangible things, such as production and exports, things you can hold in your hands. All of the previous global powers, such as Britain and the US, were trade surplus-nations during their rise.

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The problem is the economies you’re exporting to aren’t so tangible, no good owning the best restaurant in town if all your old customers are broke and dumpster diving for dinner.

No economy has ever risen as far as quickly as China its unexplored teritory where the economy goes next year in China is if people are honest a guess.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

No economy has ever risen as far as quickly as China its unexplored teritory where the economy goes next year in China is if people are honest a guess.

That's right. No one can predict the future.

The problem is the economies you’re exporting to aren’t so tangible, no good owning the best restaurant in town if all your old customers are broke and dumpster diving for dinner.

Do you honestly think the Western world (our customers) are going to have to go dumpster diving for dinner?

If their economies completely collapse, then yes, we will be in big trouble. However, that is not exactly a likely occurence, is it? Even during the Credit Crunch, people were still able to maintain a decent standard of living.

 

[Vassnti]

That's right. No one can predict the future.



Do you honestly think the Western world (our customers) are going to have to go dumpster diving for dinner?

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That was a poetic example but certainly they wont be able to consume at the crazy levels they have been. Say one small flat screen rather than a 60inch moster in every room for example.

Yes most people will still be able to afford food but what they will be cutting back on is all the luxury items they thought till the crunch hit were esentials, people are going to be realising that you dont need a new $500 phone every year last years one still works and seeing just about every thing is now made in China if people stop buying it hurts China.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

That was a poetic example but certainly they wont be able to consume at the crazy levels they have been. Say one small flat screen rather than a 60inch moster in every room for example.

Yes, decreasing consumption will cause problems for our exports. Which is why the Chinese government is trying to move us from an export/investment based economy, to one driven by domestic consumption.

Exports currently make up 29% of China's GDP, according to the World Bank. That number should fall in the future.

Yes most people will still be able to afford food but what they will be cutting back on is all the luxury items they thought till the crunch hit were esentials, people are going to be realising that you dont need a new $500 phone every year last years one still works and seeing just about every thing is now made in China if people stop buying it hurts China.

That actually benefits us. As disposable incomes go down, the demand for cheaper goods rises. (While the demand for luxury goods will fall).

We saw this during the Credit Crunch. People had less money to spend, so they bought cheaper goods, which were more likely to be made in China.

 

[Alchemy]

this burst of bubble might burst India surely, and ready to take on the US...

Well your country might take another 100 years to create a bubble in the first place , may be after that even you can join in the debate of bursting the bubble , till then .... Peace !!!

 

[Mike2011]

China’s ghost cities and the biggest property bubble of all time | Grist

 

[HavocHeaven]

My Indian friends, why not just hold one year or two, as you predict when China bubble will burst, then come back to laugh at us? Personally I have been tired of this kind of China will collapse tomorrow crap in the last twenty years. Yes it has been there for 20+ years. I understand sometimes wishful thinking delights yourselves, but ffs please try not to hate.

 

[Mike2011]

You know what one update statement to USA treasury database will wipe out 1 trillion dollars.

update account_payable set amount =0 where country='china'. 2-3 AC in south china sea.

China back to pavilion !!

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

You know what one update statement to USA treasury database will wipe out 1 trillion dollars.

update account_payable set amount =0 where country='china'. 2-3 AC in south china sea.

China back to pavilion !!

We can recover it easily.

The American multinationals all have major assets here, factories/land/industries. If they fail to pay their debt, we simply seize all their assets in order to recover the costs.

Plus, even then... we would still have the largest currency reserves in the world. 3 trillion minus 1 trillion... still leaves 2 trillion. Our currency reserves would still be larger than the entire Indian GDP.

Until then, we will continue to enjoy the hundreds of billions of dollars that flow from the US into China every year, in trade payments and in corporate investments.

 

[HavocHeaven]

You know what one update statement to USA treasury database will wipe out 1 trillion dollars.

update account_payable set amount =0 where country='china'. 2-3 AC in south china sea.

China back to pavilion !!

If you are able to cite any US official source to back up your claim, I will be convinced. Otherwise, STFU.

 

[S10]

I never understand why Indians want to critique Chinese economic structure. It's like a failing student laughing at a student for getting only 70 out of 100 on a test. Certainly China has many internal problems of its own in terms of the economy, but Indian trying to make a scene out of them is just funny.

 

[Mike2011]

We can recover it easily.

The American multinationals all have major assets here, factories/land/industries. If they fail to pay their debt, we simply seize all their assets in order to recover the costs.

Plus, even then... we would still have the largest currency reserves in the world. 3 trillion minus 1 trillion... still leaves 2 trillion. Larger than the entire Indian GDP.

Until then, we will continue to enjoy the hundreds of billions of dollars that flow from the US into China every year, in trade payments and in corporate investments.

If USA wipes out, then everyone will follow the leader.
BTW what are you going to do with factories if no one wants to buy.