below_freezing
ELITE MEMBER
"世界上没有永远的执政党." -蒋经国
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How will we deal with the inevitable collapse of the government here and make it the least brutal as possible?
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I am a hardcore PRC nationalist and CPC supporter but I'm also realistic that no government lasts forever, including the US regime and the CPC.
In my opinion, there are some careful precedents. We can look at 2 opposing examples, USSR and ROC, to view how their ruling parties collapsed, as an example of what to do and what not to do.
1.) The country must be so strong militarily that even internal unrest would not allow outsiders to come in. The USSR was a prime example, with 5 million soldiers, 5000 aircraft and 10000 nukes, no one could touch it even with internal decline because attempting would be far too painful. Though Taiwan was not militarily powerful, it had the backing of the US, and because of this, the CPC didn't have the opportunity to launch an attack during KMT's collapse. This was not the case for weaker nations with no support like Iran, Libya and Mexico. Also not forget, China's own history. When we were militarily weak, the foreigners decided our political fate. Currently, we are on this track, and must build more nuclear weapons to ensure this.
2.) The country must not change its name or major institutions, as well as maintain an image of governing continuity to avoid international credit devaluation. Contrast Taiwan (though not a nation) with the USSR. Taiwan's leadership change from KMT to DPP was smooth and consistent. There was little capital flight and indeed Taiwan's economy grew in 2000. On the other hand, the USSR actually ceasing to exist and collapsing completely collapsed the ruble and led to massive capital flight simply by changing names of companies. Name change leads to devaluation due to the delegitimacy of the government which mustn't happen.
3.) Everyone that was a victim of previous repression or mistakes must be old or dead. Note Taiwan's example. There was no economic disruption. This is in spite of 4 decades of heavy repression on Taiwan starting with the 228 massacre and all the way until the success of the 党外 movement. Everyone who was a victim of KMT atrocities died by the time they collapsed. In contrast, the USSR If CPC falls after 2030, when most victims of CPC mistakes had already died, then there is a high chance of continuous government under the PRC name. Otherwise, it would be like the USSR. The USSR collapsed at the worst time possible - right after suffering dual humiliations in the middle east during the Yom Kippur war and in afghanistan. This was a contributor to its separation into different states, but there is another factor.
4.) Ethnic minorities must be dispersed. In Taiwan, aboriginies are completely marginalized in society and dispersed throughout the island. In contrast, the USSR concentrated minorities together in their native republics thanks to Stalin's disastrous plan of deporting minorities to their old land. This is a major worry for China. The solution is to dilute the minorities by making sure no one region has a non-Han majority. As Tibet and Xinjiang develop and receive rail and air links to the rest of China, we should see Han majorities develop within 10 years as Uighurs and Tibetans move out to the rest of China seeking jobs and Han move in.
Going by these standards, China fulfills 2/4 standards of being able to maintain state continuity within a crisis leading to government collapse. Unlike in the Soviet Union, we have an overwhelming Han presence and our government institutions are nominally independent of the CPC (especially with the 2011 National Mobilization Law giving power to the Premier, a government position, the power to mobilize the military, confiscate foreign assets and impose conscription). However, unlike Taiwan, we have many minorities concentrated in large areas, and victims of CPC mistakes (from 1959, 1964, 1989) are still not old or dead yet.
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How will we deal with the inevitable collapse of the government here and make it the least brutal as possible?
-----
I am a hardcore PRC nationalist and CPC supporter but I'm also realistic that no government lasts forever, including the US regime and the CPC.
In my opinion, there are some careful precedents. We can look at 2 opposing examples, USSR and ROC, to view how their ruling parties collapsed, as an example of what to do and what not to do.
1.) The country must be so strong militarily that even internal unrest would not allow outsiders to come in. The USSR was a prime example, with 5 million soldiers, 5000 aircraft and 10000 nukes, no one could touch it even with internal decline because attempting would be far too painful. Though Taiwan was not militarily powerful, it had the backing of the US, and because of this, the CPC didn't have the opportunity to launch an attack during KMT's collapse. This was not the case for weaker nations with no support like Iran, Libya and Mexico. Also not forget, China's own history. When we were militarily weak, the foreigners decided our political fate. Currently, we are on this track, and must build more nuclear weapons to ensure this.
2.) The country must not change its name or major institutions, as well as maintain an image of governing continuity to avoid international credit devaluation. Contrast Taiwan (though not a nation) with the USSR. Taiwan's leadership change from KMT to DPP was smooth and consistent. There was little capital flight and indeed Taiwan's economy grew in 2000. On the other hand, the USSR actually ceasing to exist and collapsing completely collapsed the ruble and led to massive capital flight simply by changing names of companies. Name change leads to devaluation due to the delegitimacy of the government which mustn't happen.
3.) Everyone that was a victim of previous repression or mistakes must be old or dead. Note Taiwan's example. There was no economic disruption. This is in spite of 4 decades of heavy repression on Taiwan starting with the 228 massacre and all the way until the success of the 党外 movement. Everyone who was a victim of KMT atrocities died by the time they collapsed. In contrast, the USSR If CPC falls after 2030, when most victims of CPC mistakes had already died, then there is a high chance of continuous government under the PRC name. Otherwise, it would be like the USSR. The USSR collapsed at the worst time possible - right after suffering dual humiliations in the middle east during the Yom Kippur war and in afghanistan. This was a contributor to its separation into different states, but there is another factor.
4.) Ethnic minorities must be dispersed. In Taiwan, aboriginies are completely marginalized in society and dispersed throughout the island. In contrast, the USSR concentrated minorities together in their native republics thanks to Stalin's disastrous plan of deporting minorities to their old land. This is a major worry for China. The solution is to dilute the minorities by making sure no one region has a non-Han majority. As Tibet and Xinjiang develop and receive rail and air links to the rest of China, we should see Han majorities develop within 10 years as Uighurs and Tibetans move out to the rest of China seeking jobs and Han move in.
Going by these standards, China fulfills 2/4 standards of being able to maintain state continuity within a crisis leading to government collapse. Unlike in the Soviet Union, we have an overwhelming Han presence and our government institutions are nominally independent of the CPC (especially with the 2011 National Mobilization Law giving power to the Premier, a government position, the power to mobilize the military, confiscate foreign assets and impose conscription). However, unlike Taiwan, we have many minorities concentrated in large areas, and victims of CPC mistakes (from 1959, 1964, 1989) are still not old or dead yet.