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The Road to Kabul Runs Through Kashmir

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Apr 24, 2007
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The Road to Kabul Runs Through Kashmir

Why the key to winning in Afghanistan is peace between Islamabad and New Delhi.

BY AHMED RASHID | NOVEMBER 10, 2010

U.S. President Barack Obama tried hard to avoid saying the "P" word -- Pakistan -- on his recent trip to India. He didn't mention Pakistan once during his brief remarks commemorating the 2008 Mumbai attacks, to the chagrin of Indian pundits. He treaded carefully on the subject during a question-and-answer forum with Indian students. And in his address to the Indian Parliament two days later, he got scant applause for challenging Indian legislators to support a Pakistan "that is stable and prosperous and democratic."

For all Indian commentators may feel that the United States is hopelessly biased toward their northwestern neighbor, they are missing a key development: As the endgame in Afghanistan approaches, relations between the United States and Pakistan have plunged to their worst depths since 2001. At the heart of this crisis are years of American neglect and drift -- and the Pakistani military's determination to outlast U.S. pressure aimed at ending its ties to the Afghan Taliban.

For nearly a decade, there has been no progress in U.S. aims to improve relations between India and Pakistan or U.S. attempts to persuade the Pakistani military to treat all terrorist groups as equally culpable. The military's Inter-Services Intelligence directorate still allows Afghan and Central Asian terrorist groups to operate from Pakistani soil and refuses to clamp down on the anti-Indian terrorist groups operating from Punjab province, including the Lashkar-e-Taiba, which launched the 2008 Mumbai attacks. The Pakistani Army admits that it has not gone after al Qaeda in Pakistan since 2006.

This malign neglect has allowed foreign militants to radicalize Pakistani Pashtun tribes, which have now linked up with militant groups in Punjab -- with the aim of overthrowing the Pakistani state. Yet Pakistani strategists still think they can crush the homegrown militants while maintaining the Afghan Taliban as a proxy force for a final settlement in Afghanistan.

If that sounds delusional, so does the U.S. failure to address this crisis honestly. For seven long years, President George W. Bush treated former Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf as an ally and hero when a much more calibrated -- and realistic -- policy was needed. The United States also denied the Pakistani public's demands for democracy.

Bush's successor acutely recognizes the problem, but he has yet to move Pakistan in a healthier direction. Bob Woodward's book, Obama's Wars, demonstrates how early on, Obama saw a "cancer" in Pakistan that was leading to U.S. failure in Afghanistan. But his advisors were at odds with one other as to what to do about it. Two years into Obama's presidency, U.S. thinking on Pakistan is just as muddled as before, despite billions of dollars in new aid and a new determination to acknowledge the problems more openly.

America's biggest mistake is its failure to recognize Pakistan's near-fatal obsession with India. Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan's chief of Army staff, and his corps commanders are more consumed with so-called Indian expansion in the region than any of their predecessors. Kayani has frequently voiced his security philosophy as being "India-centric." He has refused to launch an offensive in North Waziristan, where most Afghan Taliban leaders are housed, using the excuse of not wanting to deplete the Pakistani Army's strength on the Indian front. Pointing to the India threat is convenient for Kayani: It allows him to explain why he cannot do more on the Afghan border and helps him retain the loyalty of junior- and middle-ranking officers who are increasingly angry about being forced to fight America's war. But his fears about India are also deeply rooted in a Pakistani military mindset that will require major Indian overtures before it changes.

Before he was elected, Obama suggested he would try to resolve the India-Pakistan rivalry and the Kashmir dispute that fuels it, telling Time magazine it was one of the "critical tasks" of his presidency. Needless to say, that hasn't happened -- and he didn't mention the "K" word once during his Parliament speech. While the United States has remained silent on Kashmir, a new Indo-Pak rivalry has erupted over the battle for influence in a post-U.S.-withdrawal world, manifested in terrorist attacks on Indian diplomats and road workers in Afghanistan and, Pakistan claims, Indian-sponsored unrest in Baluchistan.

Obama cannot afford to keep ignoring this blood feud. Some blunt public speaking, not just cautious private messages or boilerplate rhetoric about improving relations between India and Pakistan, could serve as a wake-up call. There can be no peace in Afghanistan until these two neighbors sit down and talk about a common approach to both Kabul and Kashmir, rather than negotiating by proxy war.

The real game-changer in the region can only come, however, when the United States gives its full support to negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Merely facilitating talks is not good enough -- only the United States has the power to enforce a deal -- but U.S. generals are resisting deeper involvement. The Taliban have to be weakened first, the generals argue. The danger is that this strategy, if it even works, will bring to the surface a much more bitter, radicalized Taliban leadership with closer ties to al Qaeda, making negotiations next to impossible.

Pakistan will seek to dominate any future settlement. However, over the course of what are likely to be long and painful discussions, Pakistan will come under tremendous pressure to water down its demands -- which, given the weakness of the Pakistani state, if coupled with more realistic thinking in the Army and greater dialogue with India, it is likely to do.

The problem is the Pentagon. If Obama's generals have their way -- and in an eerie parallel of the way things work in Islamabad, they are increasingly calling the shots in the relationship -- the war in Afghanistan could drag on indefinitely. Pakistan will dig in its heels, as will other regional powers. Taliban attacks will multiply, and the U.S. military and the CIA will escalate their actions along (and maybe even across) the Pakistani border. We are at the cusp of either a broader peace in the region or an ever-widening chaos. It's Obama's choice.

Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist, is author most recently of Descent Into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia.
 
I think the US now realizes the importance of resolving disputes between India and Pakistan. What the US is doing is to gain a considerable leverage to force India to come forth with a firm commitment for the resolution of Disputes between Pakistan and India.
The only thing stopping the Indians to attain there Goal and become a major Global Economy is its rivalry with Pakistan which has its roots in the outstanding Disputes. The Grand Strategic Depth achieved by Pakistan in Afghanistan was achieved with the sole motive that , If the Mujahideen can be used to Bring down a Super Power Like Soviet Union to there knees then why cant they be used to Liberate Kashmir and Teach India a lesson. That is the mindset which derives immense support for these Mujahideen. As long as the Disputes remain the sympathy for the Talibans will likely remain Alive.The US now very much recognizes this reality after being continuously failing to force Pakistani Generals to accept its bidding and a Decade of Bloody War in Afghanistan in which US still haven't achieved a single thing.
The Fact that India needs US for it Economic Objectives, and US readily helping and accepting the Indian Wish list even going as far as giving India a Support for its permanent UNSC seat(which might have pricked Germany and Japan or Brazil) has much to do with Gaining a Considerable Leverage to Force the Indians to settle Disputes with Pakistan.
Once the Disputes are settled and a state of Friendly Relations are achieved between India and Pakistan, There is Virtually nothing inside the Pakistani Establishment through which the Terrorists in Afghanistan could enjoy some support. Once there support from Pakistan dismantled , they would either be forced to Fight and Die Or lay down there Arms to Participate in an Ongoing Political Process inside Afghanistan.
 
We need to accept realities.

Peace between India & Pak shall remain ever elusive. Given the deep rooted distrust, jealousy & the fact that hatred towards India is the bread & butter of many in pak why would anyone accept peace ? There is no way that any Govt in India can part with J&K and live to see another day.

Not going after AQ and nurturing fundamentals within Pak borders is like cutting your nose to spite your neighbour.

India as has been seen has weathered many an attempt at destabilization starting from Punjab in the 80s and has both the patience & wherewithal to sustain a long drawn & protracted conflict ( both low & high intensity) with Pak without major impact on its economy.

With an economy to match India has the ability to spend on itself and make Pak do the same quite like what US did with the USSR. While India uses its own money Pak has to borrow for the same or seek aid.

Using Taliban to 'liberate " J&K will make Pak more of a Pariah state than anything else. It has been tried in the past with indifferent results. It further entrenched the alleged non state actors in Pak whose ill effects are visible leading PA & GOP to give away Swat to them albeit temporarily - taken back with loss of face & lives.

Its a waiting game.

In any property dispute possession is 3/4th the law.
 
We need to accept realities.

Peace between India & Pak shall remain ever elusive. Given the deep rooted distrust, jealousy & the fact that hatred towards India is the bread & butter of many in pak why would anyone accept peace ?


Indian perception. going jealous over India would be the last thing Pakistanis will do because there are some quality standard nations in the world if at all we want to get jealous of. India with declining social structure, human rights, fake secularism is the last thing which can get anybody jealous.


The lack of peace between India and Pakistan is due to Kashmir and Indian terrorism in East Pakista, Balochistan and once it was also in Sindh.



There is no way that any Govt in India can part with J&K and live to see another day.

This proves that hatred towards Pakistan is bred and butter of Indians not ours.



India as has been seen has weathered many an attempt at destabilization starting from Punjab in the 80s and has both the patience & wherewithal to sustain a long drawn & protracted conflict ( both low & high intensity) with Pak without major impact on its economy.


You forgot to mention the reality that India started state terrorism in East Pakistan much before 80 when Indian Sikhs started something in Punjab.

You forgot your Indian state terrorism is going on in Balochistan since long.

You forgot that India had tried hard to destablise Pakistan in many parts inlcuding Sindh when India supported jay sindh rebel moment.


India had started terrorism in Pakistani Balochistan much before 80.

With an economy to match India has the ability to spend on itself and make Pak do the same quite like what US did with the USSR. While India uses its own money Pak has to borrow for the same or seek aid.

Thats Pakistan internal matter and has nothing to do with Kashmir if we borrow or spend our own. On the other hand we can accuse you of the same for all that foreign loans when you do have alot of money which you dont spend on your people but on militarisiation of the region.



In any property dispute possession is 3/4th the law.

:lol: the property does not belong to you in the first place
 
Indian perception. going jealous over India would be the last thing Pakistanis will do because there are some quality standard nations in the world if at all we want to get jealous of. India with declining social structure, human rights, fake secularism is the last thing which can get anybody jealous.


The lack of peace between India and Pakistan is due to Kashmir and Indian terrorism in East Pakista, Balochistan and once it was also in Sindh.

This proves that hatred towards Pakistan is bred and butter of Indians not ours.

You forgot to mention the reality that India started state terrorism in East Pakistan much before 80 when Indian Sikhs started something in Punjab.

You forgot your Indian state terrorism is going on in Balochistan since long.

You forgot that India had tried hard to destablise Pakistan in many parts inlcuding Sindh when India supported jay sindh rebel moment.


India had started terrorism in Pakistani Balochistan much before 80.



Thats Pakistan internal matter and has nothing to do with Kashmir if we borrow or spend our own. On the other hand we can accuse you of the same for all that foreign loans when you do have alot of money which you dont spend on your people but on militarisiation of the region.




:lol: the property does not belong to you in the first place

Post along expected lines.

Whichever way it is seen the bottom line is that Pak today is burning with the acid it has stored within itself for others be it the Russians, US / ISAF or India.While Russia & India develop & move on Pak remains stuck in the hole it finds itself in.

Today the PA and Pak is in a situation it never was since 47 :

a) Deployed on both its borders.

b) Using its own resources / energies to protect itself from its own ppl across the country.

c) Antagonized fundamentals are gunning for the PA, even Pindi & Islamabad have been targetted.

d) No state is safe .

e) Religious places are routinely targeted to a point that Fridays are days of concern.

It may be argued that India too is in the same boat on some counts in some regions but this is something that was with us since 47. The IA stood on three fronts from 47 to 71.Now on two.

What India is experiencing is heightened security. Something that is now common the world over. Something India has grown with yet has progressed economically, militarily and despite the recession has a satisfactory growth rate. Its industry & national institutions are intact & shall remain that way. The fact that is a contender for the UNSC and a part of G8/ G20 speaks of what it has achieved despite it neighborhood while Pak continues to suffer on the same account due to self inflicted injuries.

On the subject of Baluchistan - two can play a game. Pak has unsuccessfully tried to unhinge India since Punjab in the 80's later in J&K but of no avail.

It is for Pak to figure out if it wishes to hold itself to ransom over something it has never had nor ever will. India on its part may reconcile itself to with what it has.

The road to kabul does not run thru J&K.
 
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