Well said, and I agree that China has the potential to develop a lot of soft power, but it's not guaranteed. When Japan was a powerhouse economy in the 1980s, it spent billions of dollars (and still does) on overseas development aid, but countries pocketed that aid without much gratitude. Japan was unable to develop the soft power necessary to accrue allies, even with all of its hard power. Similarly, the USSR/Russia never developed anything more than a hard power connection with its allies (the Warsaw Pact was violently enforced, it was not a voluntary alliance), and the Non-Aligned Movement was at best a loose association of countries that the USSR bribed to hate the US.
It's a difficult thing to develop soft power, which is the power of attraction, without a value system. I already discussed the values that the US projects (some might say it's propaganda, but if so, it's very effective propaganda). China's foreign policy is explicitly amoral. To quote the ancient philosophers:
If there's something strange
in your neighborhood
Who ya gonna call?
GHOSTBUSTERS
Once a country realizes that the Ghostbusters are fictional, they turn to the United Nations. Then, inevitably, these countries realize that the United Nations is just as fictional as the Ghostbusters. It's then that countries turn to the US for help when they're in trouble (economically, through our IMF/World Bank system, or militarily). Even the EU has some soft power in that its customs union can serve as an enticement to countries to change themselves in order to join (e.g. Turkey). When China's the first call for these countries, or when countries adapt themselves to join China's system (yet to be determined, by the way), it will become apparent that China has the soft power necessary to become the next global hegemon.
Interesting times, indeed.
It's guaranteed, I mean nothing is 100%, but it's as safe as anything else. Major differences between us and Japan.
Japan more or less represent the same as America, and being almost identical it cannot beat America at America's own game.
Japan was never really a weak nation post Meiji, so it wasn't in the Soviet bloc, and don't have the history that we have with these nations.
Militarily, Japan never achieved independence, not just because of their peace constitutions, but also because they can't over shadow the US in any meaningful way and thus would be pointless.
Unfortunately history and experience proves, major accomplishments such as an overwhelming military victory is essential in establishing a nation. Japan can't have that anytime soon.
In contrast, people look at China as a very different nation to the US, but unlike the USSR, China has achieved prosperity, while some may argue freedom and human rights, those are mostly from countries that already got prosperity, oh and also India for some reason.
China represent rising from the ashes, in a sense the American dream is dead because it is achieved but the Chinese dream is very much alive as developing nations across the world from Africa to SA, to India and Asia wants the Chinese reality.
So in terms of soft power unlike the USSR, we offer far more, the Chinese model. We don't force anyone to adapt anything, but you can always hear from media talking about the Chinese miracle and how it should be implemented in their country.
Militarily I see quite a few opportunity for Chinese weapons to be on show, Vietnam, Philippines, North Korea, Africa, even Japan.
With our close to completion of several important projects that would plug all the major holes in integrated combat system(Chinese future soldiers), transport helicopters, Z-20, advanced fighters, J-20, heavy transports Y-20, airliner like C919, heavy crusiers Type 55, advanced multirole frigates type 54B/57, new 95 and 96 nuke subs, 001a and 002 carriers and much much more will be done by 2020 and before.
Our military will be able to bring death in a way similar to US can, but not as numerous as the US or as technically advanced compared to the absolute latest gear, not Burke but Zumwalt.
Most importantly, China isn't the old communist culture like Soviet or ourselves anymore, people want fast cars, man enhanced babes, loads of cash, fancy apartments, and opportunities.
Our lifestyle is very desirable for a lot of people, and as we enter the semi developed status in the 2020s, a lot of our major cities will be developed, which means the things I listed above.
A recent Chinese crap rom com started with girls in Rome with Gucci and Prada, yea I saw it, don't ask me why, I'm not proud of it, I hate it when someone has that much control over my actions.
As to being called, the Russians called us, Africans call us, we may not be the first choice, but that will change with time, if it were me I won't call us first either.
But let's take a look, RIMPAC, SCO, and a lot of other international exercises will be organized by or contribute greatly by China due to our expanding budget and capabilities. We will have more and more exercises with more and more countries.
BRICS bank, Asia development bank, and our commercial banks are making a dent, to see more give it more time.
ASEAN+3, APEC, FTAs, and a few other things we are working on to counter TPP, these are important steps to being an economic powerhouse.
Ebola, SARS, and a few other scares, China is front and center in these things.
So while EU is still a force and America the king, we are making a name for ourselves and as our situation strengthens, so too will our pull be.
Bottomline, China is starting to show our prosperity and power, we are starting to challenge the notion of what America stands for, and we are being in the middle of a few organizations that do have the abilities to make changes, however small or large.
While your comparison is sound, they would only apply if USSR or Japan really resembles China in more ways than the superficial.
