Sturgeon demands Scottish independence referendum powers after SNP landslide

[UKBengali]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-powers-for-scottish-independence-referendum

"Nicola Sturgeon has challenged Boris Johnson to give Scotland the powers to hold a second independence referendum after the Scottish National party won a landslide in the general election.

The first minister said she had won “a renewed, refreshed and strengthened mandate” to call for a fresh independence vote after winning 47 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats, 11 more than in 2017."


There you have it. Scotland categorically voted against Brexit and the centre right Tories.
With nationalists in Northern Ireland also winning a majority of seats(nationalist Catholics will within a decade outnumber Unionist Protestants), disintegration of UK is inevitable with just a rump England and Wales cast outside the EU club of nations.

 

[YeBeWarned]

After existing from EU, will UK remain part of NATO Alliance ?

 

[waz]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-powers-for-scottish-independence-referendum

"Nicola Sturgeon has challenged Boris Johnson to give Scotland the powers to hold a second independence referendum after the Scottish National party won a landslide in the general election.

The first minister said she had won “a renewed, refreshed and strengthened mandate” to call for a fresh independence vote after winning 47 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats, 11 more than in 2017."


There you have it. Scotland categorically voted against Brexit and the centre right Tories.
With nationalists in Northern Ireland also winning a majority of seats(nationalist Catholics will within a decade outnumber Unionist Protestants), disintegration of UK is inevitable with just a rump England and Wales cast outside the EU club of nations.

Good luck with that one, several things here;

1. Boris has said no, and that will stay no.

2. More people voted for pro-union parties than they did for the SNP, which means in a straight referendum she will lose again.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opini...acked-pro-union-parties-pamela-nash-1-5062121

3. By her own admission she has stated that "not everyone who voted SNP wants independence" so what the hell is this bat $hit crazy woman going on about?
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-powers-for-scottish-independence-referendum

4. Scotland is a total mess, they have the worst performing students in the UK in national exams, their drug epidemic is insane with the highest amount of deaths in Europe etc, which will only worsen if she breaks from the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48938509

5. Scotland ran a deficit 7 times that of the UK as a whole and they simply cannot sustain themselves. They face massive black holes in their finances due to sheer overspending.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...8-deficit-higher-than-uk-as-a-whole-last-year

 

[UKBengali]

Good luck with that one, several things here;

1. Boris has said no, and that will stay no.

Boris can say no now but will need to buckle in the end as it is accepted that the Union is by choice.
80% of Scottish MPs want to leave the Union and that pretty much nails the Tories saying 'No' for too long.
England cannot hold Scotland prisoner in the Union against it's will. Remember that the "Act of Union" made Scotland and England equal partners - just because England has a much larger population does not give it a right to stop them from leaving if that is what they want.

2. More people voted for pro-union parties than they did for the SNP, which means in a straight referendum she will lose again.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/a-vote-for-scottish-independence-54-of-scots-backed-pro-union-parties-pamela-nash-1-5062121

Not really.

One of the reasons that "No" won back in 2014 is an independent Scotland would not automatically get back into the EU and may have to wait in line for years and the fear that Spain would say no due to Catalonia. With them now being taken out of the EU against their will, I would bet any new referendum will vote to leave, especially as Spain has recently said it would not block an independent Scotland being allowed into the EU.

5. Scotland ran a deficit 7 times that of the UK as a whole and they simply cannot sustain themselves. They face massive black holes in their finances due to sheer overspending.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...8-deficit-higher-than-uk-as-a-whole-last-year

Scots will have to tighten their belts initially after independence but should get back to where they were after some time.
Remember any Brexit is forecast to make the UK worse off under all models run. Just recently I read somewhere that in 10 years UK GDP will be 10% less than otherwise because of Brexit.

For Scots, it would be short term (5-10 years) of lower living standards but then equalling and potentially surpassing UK GDP and getting back into the EU. My money is they will choose independence and EU.

 

[waz]

Boris can say no now but will need to buckle in the end as it is accepted that the Union is by choice.
80% of Scottish MPs want to leave the Union and that pretty much nails the Tories saying 'No' for too long.
England cannot hold Scotland prisoner in the Union against it's will. Remember that the "Act of Union" made Scotland and England equal partners - just because England has a much larger population does not give it a right to stop them from leaving if that is what they want.

He will say no now and the immediate future. What happens after that is guess work.
Their number of MP's makes no difference and I've already provided evidence of this. In a straight vote they will be defeated again.
Scotland is not even being held against its "will" where are you getting this from?

Not really.

One of the reasons that "No" won back in 2014 is an independent Scotland would not automatically get back into the EU and may have to wait in line for years and the fear that Spain would say no due to Catalonia. With them now being taken out of the EU against their will, I would bet any new referendum will vote to leave, especially as Spain has recently said it would not block an independent Scotland being allowed into the EU.

Just no, there's a lot more at stake. Scotland's masses do not or have not ever put their membership of the EU before the UK union. Yes remaining part of the EU had some influence on the vote, but research carried out at the time and after showed that other things were equally if not more important e.g. sovereignty, joint history, economic ties, bargaining power on the world stage and so on.
Spain speaks out of its backside, if they are so pro Scotland leaving why the hell is Catalonia in flames? Why don't they give them their rights? I can guarantee you they will change their position faster in a blink of an eye if Scotland left.
You can bet all you want bro but you were wrong in the past and will be so again.

Scots will have to tighten their belts initially after independence but should get back to where they were after some time.
Remember any Brexit is forecast to make the UK worse off under all models run. Just recently I read somewhere that in 10 years UK GDP will be 10% less than otherwise because of Brexit.

For Scots, it would be short term (5-10 years) of lower living standards but then equalling and potentially surpassing UK GDP and getting back into the EU. My money is they will choose independence and EU.

And who says they will do this? Do you realise the mass chaos that will cause? Try telling the Scots they will have to pay for prescriptions, uni fees, dental care etc and there will be riots on the streets.
What also makes you think they will "get back to where they were"? Their economy is massively reliant on England and virtually every economist literally says there will be an apocalypse. Their economy is not diverse enough their trump cards are financial services which they can kiss goodbye when a break from London happens, food and drink which is very niche, tourism, oil (highly volatile) and IT start-ups again heavily linked to London.
Also which currency will they use? The British pound controlled by a central bank in London, great independence right there...
I'm sorry Brexit will be a short term hit but the long term effects are laughable and so far every great calamity predicted has not come to pass. The 10% figure you read is an absolute fantasy.

For the Scots it will mean financial ruin, a mass exodus of their top talent, living standards worse than Eastern Europe and so on.

The Scots will say no like they did last time, which I might add was a large margin.

By the way the latest polls also show a majority not wanting independence.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/quest...-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line

 

[UKBengali]

He will say no now and the immediate future. What happens after that is guess work.
Their number of MP's makes no difference and I've already provided evidence of this. In a straight vote they will be defeated again.
Scotland is not even being held against its "will" where are you getting this from?

If 80% of Scottish MPs want independence and the UK Tory government(made up of English Tory MPs) say no, this is the way that the SNP will spin it. All that is likely to happen is if UK Tory government says no( SNP will successfully spin this as really an English government) is that support for independence just increases.

SNP had already gone on record after 2014, saying that if there was a "material change" to Scotland then it holds the right to ask for another referendum. Leaving the EU which was one of the main pluses of staying in the Union and gives them the right to call for another referendum.

Johnson anyway does not give a stuff about Scotland or the Union it seems. He held an interview back in 1997 and said that the Scots were free to leave as long as England does not have to pay for it lol.

Just no, there's a lot more at stake. Scotland's masses do not or have not ever put their membership of the EU before the UK union. Yes remaining part of the EU had some influence on the vote, but research carried out at the time and after showed that other things were equally if not more important e.g. sovereignty, joint history, economic ties, bargaining power on the world stage and so on.
Spain speaks out of its backside, if they are so pro Scotland leaving why the hell is Catalonia in flames? Why don't they give them their rights? I can guarantee you they will change their position faster in a blink of an eye if Scotland left.
You can bet all you want bro but you were wrong in the past and will be so again.

We can disagree about EU membership influence in the 2014 Referendum but nearly 75% of the Scottish electorate voted for broadly "Remain" parties in the 2019 election. Yes not all of them would vote 'Yes' in a new independence referendum but food for though at least.

And who says they will do this? Do you realise the mass chaos that will cause? Try telling the Scots they will have to pay for prescriptions, uni fees, dental care etc and there will be riots on the streets.
What also makes you think they will "get back to where they were"? Their economy is massively reliant on England and virtually every economist literally says there will be an apocalypse. Their economy is not diverse enough their trump cards are financial services which they can kiss goodbye when a break from London happens, food and drink which is very niche, tourism, oil (highly volatile) and IT start-ups again heavily linked to London.
Also which currency will they use? The British pound controlled by a central bank in London, great independence right there...
I'm sorry Brexit will be a short term hit but the long term effects are laughable and so far every great calamity predicted has not come to pass. The 10% figure you read is an absolute fantasy.

For the Scots it will mean financial ruin, a mass exodus of their top talent, living standards worse than Eastern Europe and so on.

The Scots will say no like they did last time, which I might add was a large margin.

Let us hope that the forecasts of UK GDP being severely hit by Brexit does not materialise as then the major reason left for Scotland to stay in the Union disappears.

This is one forecast published by UK government under May's deal - which was softer Brexit than Boris's deal:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-growth-brexit-deal-passed-official-estimates:

"Britain is on course to sacrifice as much as £130bn in lost GDP growth over the next 15 years if the Brexit deal goes ahead, according to government figures"

"The 6.7% of GDP cost of Johnson also adds up to making people on average £2,250 a year poorer by 2034"

 

[waz]

If 80% of Scottish MPs want independence and the UK Tory government(made up of English Tory MPs) say no, this is the way that the SNP will spin it. All that is likely to happen is if UK Tory government says no( SNP will successfully spin this as really an English government) is that support for independence just increases.

SNP had already gone on record after 2014, saying that if there was a "material change" to Scotland then it holds the right to ask for another referendum. Leaving the EU which was one of the main pluses of staying in the Union and gives them the right to call for another referendum.

Johnson anyway does not give a stuff about Scotland or the Union it seems. He held an interview back in 1997 and said that the Scots were free to leave as long as England does not have to pay for it lol.

They can demand or spin it any way they want, the bottom line is that most Scots are against it, as I have evidenced.
The SNP are beyond ridiculous, what they said made no sense what so ever. They were massively criticised for this i.e. how can they complain about a material change when by making Scotland independent they would be taking it out of the EU anyway! That's one of the main reasons the Scots don't take their independence drive seriously.
Johnson does care about the union and has been an advocate of one union politics. Also a lot of what he says should be taken in jest (that 97 comment).

We can disagree about EU membership influence in the 2014 Referendum but nearly 75% of the Scottish electorate voted for broadly "Remain" parties in the 2019 election. Yes not all of them would vote 'Yes' in a new independence referendum but food for though at least.

The remain argument is dead and buried, they simply do not have the numbers and no have a majority in a tiny population in Scotland won't make an ounce of a difference. A majority voted against the SNP. The first part the post system is what gave the SNP their seats.

I
Let us hope that the forecasts of UK GDP being severely hit by Brexit does not materialise as then the major reason left for Scotland to stay in the Union disappears.

This is one forecast published by UK government under May's deal - which was softer Brexit than Boris's deal:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-growth-brexit-deal-passed-official-estimates:

"Britain is on course to sacrifice as much as £130bn in lost GDP growth over the next 15 years if the Brexit deal goes ahead, according to government figures"

"The 6.7% of GDP cost of Johnson also adds up to making people on average £2,250 a year poorer by 2034"

I've seen it and I can put up many against it, but frankly being an economist I've debated this so many times I can't remember.
I like you hope that we are not severely hit.

 

[koolio]

They can demand or spin it any way they want, the bottom line is that most Scots are against it, as I have evidenced.
The SNP are beyond ridiculous, what they said made no sense what so ever. They were massively criticised for this i.e. how can they complain about a material change when by making Scotland independent they would be taking it out of the EU anyway! That's one of the main reasons the Scots don't take their independence drive seriously.
Johnson does care about the union and has been an advocate of one union politics. Also a lot of what he says should be taken in jest (that 97 comment).






The remain argument is dead and buried, they simply do not have the numbers and no have a majority in a tiny population in Scotland won't make an ounce of a difference. A majority voted against the SNP. The first part the post system is what gave the SNP their seats.







I've seen it and I can put up many against it, but frankly being an economist I've debated this so many times I can't remember.
I like you hope that we are not severely hit.

Agree with you buddy, the scots wont go for independence, their economy would not sustain the free university tuition fees, free medical prescriptions, dental and eye care. The bottom line is if SNP would like a second referendum they are going to have to wait a very long time since they have already had one back in 2014.

Nicola sturgeon is beyond stupidity, she should be focusing on making Scotland better, I have travelled everywhere in Scotland, and most of the roads are dire in need of repair, where is she going to the extra money from if Scotland was independent. Many Scots save thousands of pounds when they travel south of the border during school term holidays because the half term starts a few weeks earlier than England.

 

[UKBengali]

They can demand or spin it any way they want, the bottom line is that most Scots are against it, as I have evidenced.
The SNP are beyond ridiculous, what they said made no sense what so ever. They were massively criticised for this i.e. how can they complain about a material change when by making Scotland independent they would be taking it out of the EU anyway! That's one of the main reasons the Scots don't take their independence drive seriously.
Johnson does care about the union and has been an advocate of one union politics. Also a lot of what he says should be taken in jest (that 97 comment).

Well SNP would apply to rejoin EU immediately and so it would be temporary.
Anyway with them being taken out of the EU this changes the calculus, as the "No" campaign in 2014 made the point that Scotland would be out of the EU if they voted Yes and may face years before it was allowed back in.
Independent Scotland would at some time be back in the EU like most Scots want.

The remain argument is dead and buried, they simply do not have the numbers and no have a majority in a tiny population in Scotland won't make an ounce of a difference. A majority voted against the SNP. The first part the post system is what gave the SNP their seats.

There was a poll done that said around 50% would vote to leave the Union under a "soft-Brexit" and maybe up to 55% under the "Hard-Brexit" as may happen under this Tory government. Remember they still managed to get 45% votes for Independence with the UK being in the EU back in 2014.

I've seen it and I can put up many against it, but frankly being an economist I've debated this so many times I can't remember.
I like you hope that we are not severely hit.

Scotland does have a lot more going for it than Wales, that would have lower living standards than even Poland if it left the UK.
It has tourism(11 billion UK pounds a year), Food and Drink(5 billion UK pounds exports) and Oil and Gas(Scotland would get 80-90% share under independence). They have of course other industries like biomedical sciences and also gaming as well.

Now recently it has come to light that oil and gas production is likely to be 50% higher than originally thought(up to 2050) and so that current 7% budget deficit would more than likely be slashed to the 3-4% range under the new projections - 3% is the maximum that EU rules allow.

https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/news-...d-gas-production-and-expenditure-2018-report/

"The “Projections of UK Oil and Gas Production and Expenditure 2018 Report” estimates that UK oil and gas production over the period 2016–2050 is projected to be 3.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) higher than projections four years ago (in March 2015)"

This is actually roughly a 1/3rd more than the numbers run at the time of the Independence vote in 2014 and may have made a big difference to that vote if this was known at the time.

 

[waz]

Well SNP would apply to rejoin EU immediately and so it would be temporary.
Anyway with them being taken out of the EU this changes the calculus, as the "No" campaign in 2014 made the point that Scotland would be out of the EU if they voted Yes and may face years before it was allowed back in.
Independent Scotland would at some time be back in the EU like most Scots want.

There's a waiting list, they can't apply immediately and will have to undergo membership talks. Many other nations are in front of them, this is all provided other nations don't object which is unlikely.
As for the rest just no. Their premise has always been that they are being taken out against their will but yet underwent a referendum that would have taken them out, hence no one takes them seriously.

There was a poll done that said around 50% would vote to leave the Union under a "soft-Brexit" and maybe up to 55% under the "Hard-Brexit" as may happen under this Tory government. Remember they still managed to get 45% votes for Independence with the UK being in the EU back in 2014.

The latest polls show them against independence, evidence has been provided and that hasn't changed much throughout the years since the brexit vote.

Scotland does have a lot more going for it than Wales, that would have lower living standards than even Poland if it left the EU.
It has tourism(11 billion UK pounds a year), Food and Drink(5 billion UK pounds exports) and Oil and Gas(Scotland would get 80-90% share under independence). They have of course other industries like biomedical sciences and also gaming as well.

Now recently it has come to light that oil and gas production is likely to be 50% higher than originally thought(up to 2050) and so that current 7% budget deficit would more than likely be slashed to the 3-4% range under the new projections - 3% is the maximum that EU rules allow.

https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/news-...d-gas-production-and-expenditure-2018-report/

"The “Projections of UK Oil and Gas Production and Expenditure 2018 Report” estimates that UK oil and gas production over the period 2016–2050 is projected to be 3.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) higher than projections four years ago (in March 2015)"

This is actually roughly a 1/3rd more than the numbers run at the time of the Independence vote in 2014 and may have made a big difference to that vote if this was known at the time.

Of course it's better than Wales but that's not saying much. Their economy is slow and none of the above takes into consideration the world is moving away from fossil fuels, especially Scotland's would be trading partners. BioMed and gaming are massively reliant on London and I've mentioned this before. As for the oil the higher production doesn't correlate with greater revenue which is very bad news for them;

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350890/united-kingdom-uk-north-sea-revenue/

They simply can't afford independence and the nation currently is a mess, hence why the Scots don't support it and won't support it.