South Korea’s population shrinks for first time ever, with trend expected to worsen amid Covid-19

[ILC]

French TFR for native women 1.77 (2017)

China 1.24 (2017)
Gender imbalance is another problem, so 1.24 in China != 1.24 in France but less.

But yeah, less than 1.0 like Dongbei is good TFR and good demographics. Grannies for the consumers!

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Because South Korean women educated and working careers so they don't want kids.

 

[Indos]

Problem can be solved.
Look Japan
They open the floor gates for immigration.
400,000 Vietnamese went to Japan in the last 4 years. 100,000 per year.
We have too many people.
We are ready to help the kimchi people too.

Yup, Vietnam remittance is 6 % of GDP, really large. Many must be absorbed in Japan/South Korea industry.

 

[Imran Khan]

we should give them few wild mullahs

 

[Mista]

Marriage is not necessary for non-poor citizens of an industrialized country.

Besides, some studies have suggested that when religious institutions can be linked to the ethics of fertility, they can change people's reproductive choices. In fact, Buddhism, Christianity, Islam and other major religions have their own views on marriage, fertility and population. the teachings of these religions all agree that marriage is sacred, oppose artificial birth restrictions and advocate population proliferation. Koreans are basically not bound by these ideas, so...

Of course, the above is only one factor, and the fertility rate of women is usually affected by many factors, including, but not limited to, education, family income, social welfare, and so on.

除此之外，韩国女权主义的盛行也许起到了一定作用。（就我个人的观察）和韩国的女权主义者相比，中国的女权主义者都显得像温和派。也许女权的一些关于反婚反育的说法没有错误，但这些理念在媒体病毒式传播严重动摇了传统的生育观，进一步对生育率造成了负面影响。这段并没有普遍共识，纯属一己之见。

For Western industrialized country, that is.

In East Asia, birth out of wedlock is still deeply frowned upon, whatever the social status, and I think that's a major cultural distinction between EA and the West.

Similar to the graph above, Iceland/Sweden/Norway/France have relatively high TFR.

Meanwhile Spain and Italy have low TFRs similar to East Asian levels. Lower than Japan actually.

However, the main difference is that these (Western) societies have more children born outside of marriage, ranging from 30% to more than 50%, compared to 1.5%- 2.0% in East Asian societies. Out-of-wedlock births would be a significant departure from Singapore’s societal norms, and are likely to lead to major changes in the make-up of our society and give rise to other social issues.

https://www.strategygroup.gov.sg/images/Press%20Release%20images/PDFs/marriage-and-parenthood-trends-in-singapore.pdf

In Singapore, for example, the average number of kids an ever-married female has is 2.01 in 2019.

Fertility Dashboard

www.singstat.gov.sg

However, the problem is that only 60% of females here get married.
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-da...tal-status-marriages-and-divorces/latest-data

Therefore our TFR is around 0.6 x 2.0 = 1.2. Out-of-wedlock births are negligible here.

To sustain the population, in absence of immigration, we will have to raise the average number of kids to 3 and the marriage rate to 70% to have a TFR of 0.7 x 3 = 2.1.

19:56

 

[Viet]

Yup, Vietnam remittance is 6 % of GDP, really large. Many must be absorbed in Japan/South Korea industry.

Yes we are nice people we will help.
However they should rush.
Once we get rich our birth rate will decline.
By then it’s too late.

 

[KurtisBrian]

in novels and games the good guys always have small populations and are attacked by hordes of retarded bad guys. Korea has advanced greatly since the Korean war. Population falls. China's population is about to crash too. Look at China advance. Hyper competitive, predatory, savage and cut throat India population surges. Backwards Africa population surges. They go no place. Falling population is a sign of advancement and desire to live a life that is more than just reproducing, herding and digging in the dirt. Don't need lots of people when technology is superior.
highly advanced Europe and the UK are the same. People there don't have big families but instead play and live lives of plenty.

 

[Indos]

Yes we are nice people we will help.
However they should rush.
Once we get rich our birth rate will decline.
By then it’s too late.

They are not allowed to be Japan/South Korea citizen but they can try to make it easy by marrying Japanese/Korean girl. Actually there is one of my male relative from my big family who married Japanese women. Look like Japanese women is not having a big problem to convert to Islam....Japanese women is very polite though and shy

 

[313ghazi]

No surprise. When society gets obsessed with distraction of money and entertainment, the priority of family falls. It's happening in all hyper-capitalist societies. First it's a big house, then a "nice" car, then designer clothes and holidays abroad - next thing you know both man and woman are working a minimum 40 hours a week, spending another 2 hours a day minimum commuting and then spending the few hours they have left eating frozen pre-prepared meals and distracting themselves with TV, internet and games. As more people make more money they buy more things and things in short supply (like houses) become more expensive, so you have to make more money to affod a "nice" house and there you have it, you're a rodent on a wheel, going round and round.

HUGE families with low quality of life is not the alternative, but there must be balance. Japan especially suffers from this. It's a sickness.

 

[Jobless Jack]

They should let me immigrate their. İ will make tons, nay container ships worth of babies with cute Korean anime girls.

Maybe İ could work there as the amil baba who does "miracles" to women whose husbands are infertile in Pakistan.

Get back at the line bro, white incel males have applied for this job almost 10 years ago

 

[Indos]

No surprise. When society gets obsessed with distraction of money and entertainment, the priority of family falls. It's happening in all hyper-capitalist societies. First it's a big house, then a "nice" car, then designer clothes and holidays abroad - next thing you know both man and woman are working a minimum 40 hours a week, spending another 2 hours a day minimum commuting and then spending the few hours they have left eating frozen pre-prepared meals and distracting themselves with TV, internet and games. As more people make more money they buy more things and things in short supply (like houses) become more expensive, so you have to make more money to affod a "nice" house and there you have it, you're a rodent on a wheel, going round and round.

HUGE families with low quality of life is not the alternative, but there must be balance. Japan especially suffers from this. It's a sickness.

The problem will be bigger in non-religious society like North East Asian, while for Muslim we are encouraged to form a family

The Prophet (peace be upon him) said:

“When a person dies, all their deeds end except three: a continuing charity, beneficial knowledge and a child who prays for them,” (Hadith, Muslim).

 

[Viet]

They are not allowed to be Japan/South Korea citizen but they can try to make it easy by marrying Japanese/Korean girl. Actually there is one of my male relative from my big family who married Japanese women. Look like Japanese women is not having a big problem to convert to Islam....Japanese women is very polite though and shy

Yes we are there to earn money. If they don’t want us we will stand up and go. In the past few years
Viet people in Japan and Korea are on the rise. We will see how long it will continue.
Interestingly the number of Viet people in China remains constant in the last 500 years.
23 k in total.

Jing, Vietnamese in China

Joshua Project profile for the Jing, Vietnamese in China

joshuaproject.net

 

[casual]

Singapore do accept a large number of immigrants every year to stabilize our demographics as if we have 2.1 TFR in the long run. Even so, we're still aging.

View attachment 703078

View attachment 703079

Then again, we have a small, multicultural population and a relatively higher standard of living, so we're able to attract and retain enough young and talented from all over Asia. I doubt that's sustainable for much larger and homogeneous East Asian countries. Eg; Japan is projected to decline by 1 million people every year. Where are they going to find 1 million educated migrants every single year?

AI revolution is right around the corner and will significantly boost automation. This means low skilled workers are less in demand. Maybe the correct path forward is to focus on up skilling the population you do have instead of focusing on total population.

 

[AUz]

A lot of developed countries are facing this problem. SK need not worry. It cannot be avoid once u r developed.

That is true but your categorization is reductionist. Offcourse developed countries and countries with already large populations will have lower fertility. However, its about healthy balance of economic progress, social preservation, and healthy family demographics. This is where East Asia has lagged behind (in terms of balancing these aspects).

Essentially, East Asians (Koreans in particular) sacrificed their culture and traditions, got massively Westernized in terms of clothing, music, sexual relations, family-structure, social values etc, and are facing demographic disaster all because they developed extremely too rapidly when it came to economic production, without balancing social/family/demographic life. Muslim world didn't take this approach and even "West-aligned" and "liberal/secular" Muslim countries like Turkey (somewhat relevant comparison) kept their culture, traditions, family-structure, and social norms and didn't open themselves to total westernization of their land/cultures just for the sake of extremely rapid development like East Asians did. There was more balance between development priorities and maintaining one's traditional cultural, familial and social norms

Turns out, this is a better approach in hindsight.....not what S.Korea did. Let me reflect it via Turkey vs Korea quick comparison (since they both started with almost same base in 1960)

In early 1960's

Population:
Turkey: 27 million
S.Korea: 26 million

Median Age:
Turkey:19.4
Korea: 19

GDP per capita (PPP): Similar (both countries were extremely low-income)

Late 2010's

Population:

Turkey: 82 million with about 2 kids per woman on average (a bit unhealthy TFR vis-a-vis ideal)
S.Korea: 50 million with only about 1 kid per woman (extremely unhealthy TFR vis-a-vis ideal)

GDP per capita (PPP):
Turkey: ~$30k per person
S.Korea: ~$40k per person

Median age:
Turkey: 31 years
S. Korea: 42 years

One-Fact that elucidates my point further: South Korea fell below-replacement fertility rate at ~$5k to $6k GDP per capita (PPP). Turkey fell below-replacement fertility rate at ~$27k GDP per capita (PPP)

With a more balanced and more holistic development model: Korea could have been FAR more promising and powerful nation today with say 80 million Koreans, with a median age of 34 or 35, and a GDP per capita of $33k-$35k etc.

Developing too fast can have many long-lasting negative externalities for a nation. But I guess its much better to develop too fast than to develop too slow like is the case with us in the subcontinent

Most developed countries aren't as bad as East Asia, and in the West they absorb immigrants to slow the demographic decline.

True. East Asia developed too rapidly for its own good in some ways. But my last two lines above summarize it lol

 

[ILC]

South Korea nominal $ gdp per capita 30700, Turkey 7800.