Yankee-stani
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- Aug 22, 2018
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IT is now more than 17 years the US got militarily engaged in Afghanistan. The American President, Donald Trump’s statement a couple of weeks back that the US would soon withdraw half of her forces from the country was soon contradicted by his spokesman and appeared a bluff. The US forces which peaked about 100000 in 2011, are now slightly more than one-tenth of it — 14000 . The NATO command and troops have already left the country after the internal security affairs of Afghanistan in 2012 were transferred to Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP), now merged into Afghan National Defence Forces (ANDSF). President Trump’s announcement of the withdrawal of the half of troops and its negation by spokesman and his Secretary of State are however still a half told story as efforts for negotiation with Taliban are underway with its next immediate round in Saudi Arabia. And if successful, many rounds of negotiation might follow between the parties. However, the question arises whether America is serious about withdrawal or pretending. The phenomenon can well be explained under the two opposite contexts or schools of thought.
The first school of thought believes that America will continue its presence in Afghanistan due to five major reasons. First, the Pakistan factor according to which Pakistan is an important Muslim nation-state with nuclear status. America can have a closer eye while being present there. Second, Iran which being an equal important Muslim nation-state and having directly defied American supremacy by calling it as “a Big Devil” and “an Anti-Muslims” can be closely monitored. Third, Central Asian States factor which to American policy makers US, while in Afghanistan, can put it in position to garner its economic and political influence in the CARs. Fourth, Russia which is emerging as a co-partner with China in the region with growing influence. America knows that in the wake of its exit from Afghanistan, there might be fresh rounds of Russian support for rival groups. In international politics which is largely a struggle for gaining power and wealth through influence and support can benefit Russia once Americans withdraw. And Lastly, China factor according to which the country now being the second largest economic and military power and has surpassed trade supremacy over US. China is establishing a close relationship with Russia, Iran and even India under Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICs with huge investment in Pakistan through the economic corridors can be seen as a threat to US influence in the region.
However, the other school of thought, to which humbly I belong, is that American exit from Afghanistan is almost a writing on the wall. America has lost the war in Afghanistan as did in Vietnam five decades ago. Afghanistan throughout history has proved a tough ground if not disastrous for invaders. And for the last two centuries it has been a Waterloo for three superpowers: Britain, Soviet Union and now US. A popular saying about Afghanistan that “one can rent it out but not buy it” comes true in case of US. American huge investment in Afghanistan by the end of the day proves a failure. It is now more than 14 years the political system US envisaged for future economic, social and political development of the country is functioning miserably. Afghanistan is suffering badly from three major crises of political development: participation, representation and penetration. A majority of the area of Afghanistan is without the jurisdiction of central government and falls under Taliban and other allied groups. The poppy cultivation, a major source of illicit revenue for Taliban and even government administration at lower levels in some of the provinces is at height. American productive investment in Afghanistan which could generate revenue for its supported government for the country’s overall social and economic development is very low. Each year since 2001 US entered the Afghan soil, an annual expenses are between $ 40-45 billion. They include $ 4 to 5 billion aid for incumbent Afghan government, but under different heads.
Nevertheless, the US major expenditure is on the security bases, troops mobilization and transportation. American press in large has highlighted the expenses coming out of the treasury and largely financed by public taxes. The leading US intellectuals and think tanks are of opinion, grown with the passage of time, that American presence in Afghanistan is a failure of policy makers and wastage of public funds. Better they come up with a solution and withdraw from the land. It is only possible with the establishment of a broader coalition government with Taliban being part of it. The Taliban resistance and hold around Kabul and capital cities of many of the provinces is a major challenge to Afghan government and forces. Ashraf Ghani since his stepping into power has conveyed to US Administration. Trump Administration is realizing the fact, a factor accountable for change in their behaviour towards Taliban and Pakistan. They have requested Pakistan to play a mediating role in the conflict to which Pakistan has shown consent. The Qatar round of talks and onwards in Saudi Arabia with Taliban delegation across the negotiating table are positive steps. Also, an important factor is that the Republican Administration is realizing the 2020 Presidential elections in which Democrats can table complete withdrawal from Afghanistan once in power as essential manifesto agenda. No matter whatever the case may be, the Republican popularity graph has gone down over many foreign issues. The Democrats to reach the Presidency against Trump will use withdrawal as essential bargain as Richards Nixon did in 1972.
— The writer is Professor, Dept of Politics & International Relations, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Mansoor Akbar Kundi
The first school of thought believes that America will continue its presence in Afghanistan due to five major reasons. First, the Pakistan factor according to which Pakistan is an important Muslim nation-state with nuclear status. America can have a closer eye while being present there. Second, Iran which being an equal important Muslim nation-state and having directly defied American supremacy by calling it as “a Big Devil” and “an Anti-Muslims” can be closely monitored. Third, Central Asian States factor which to American policy makers US, while in Afghanistan, can put it in position to garner its economic and political influence in the CARs. Fourth, Russia which is emerging as a co-partner with China in the region with growing influence. America knows that in the wake of its exit from Afghanistan, there might be fresh rounds of Russian support for rival groups. In international politics which is largely a struggle for gaining power and wealth through influence and support can benefit Russia once Americans withdraw. And Lastly, China factor according to which the country now being the second largest economic and military power and has surpassed trade supremacy over US. China is establishing a close relationship with Russia, Iran and even India under Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICs with huge investment in Pakistan through the economic corridors can be seen as a threat to US influence in the region.
However, the other school of thought, to which humbly I belong, is that American exit from Afghanistan is almost a writing on the wall. America has lost the war in Afghanistan as did in Vietnam five decades ago. Afghanistan throughout history has proved a tough ground if not disastrous for invaders. And for the last two centuries it has been a Waterloo for three superpowers: Britain, Soviet Union and now US. A popular saying about Afghanistan that “one can rent it out but not buy it” comes true in case of US. American huge investment in Afghanistan by the end of the day proves a failure. It is now more than 14 years the political system US envisaged for future economic, social and political development of the country is functioning miserably. Afghanistan is suffering badly from three major crises of political development: participation, representation and penetration. A majority of the area of Afghanistan is without the jurisdiction of central government and falls under Taliban and other allied groups. The poppy cultivation, a major source of illicit revenue for Taliban and even government administration at lower levels in some of the provinces is at height. American productive investment in Afghanistan which could generate revenue for its supported government for the country’s overall social and economic development is very low. Each year since 2001 US entered the Afghan soil, an annual expenses are between $ 40-45 billion. They include $ 4 to 5 billion aid for incumbent Afghan government, but under different heads.
Nevertheless, the US major expenditure is on the security bases, troops mobilization and transportation. American press in large has highlighted the expenses coming out of the treasury and largely financed by public taxes. The leading US intellectuals and think tanks are of opinion, grown with the passage of time, that American presence in Afghanistan is a failure of policy makers and wastage of public funds. Better they come up with a solution and withdraw from the land. It is only possible with the establishment of a broader coalition government with Taliban being part of it. The Taliban resistance and hold around Kabul and capital cities of many of the provinces is a major challenge to Afghan government and forces. Ashraf Ghani since his stepping into power has conveyed to US Administration. Trump Administration is realizing the fact, a factor accountable for change in their behaviour towards Taliban and Pakistan. They have requested Pakistan to play a mediating role in the conflict to which Pakistan has shown consent. The Qatar round of talks and onwards in Saudi Arabia with Taliban delegation across the negotiating table are positive steps. Also, an important factor is that the Republican Administration is realizing the 2020 Presidential elections in which Democrats can table complete withdrawal from Afghanistan once in power as essential manifesto agenda. No matter whatever the case may be, the Republican popularity graph has gone down over many foreign issues. The Democrats to reach the Presidency against Trump will use withdrawal as essential bargain as Richards Nixon did in 1972.
— The writer is Professor, Dept of Politics & International Relations, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Mansoor Akbar Kundi
