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Sino-US Security Issues in Asia

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China factor in Afghanistan
Posted on October 10, 2011
Huma Yusuf

THE signing of the India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership last week reaffirmed the establishment’s narratives about Pakistan’s real concerns across its western border: it’s not about militancy or instability, but about Indian hegemony.

The timing of the pact, and its focus on security cooperation, intimates Pakistan’s nightmare scenario of encirclement by India. Former military ruler Pervez Musharraf pointed to the pact as proof that India is seeking to create “an anti-Pakistan Afghanistan”. And so we’re back to binaries: India versus Pakistan in a potential proxy war in Afghanistan.

But things are never as straightforward as they seem. Most political dynamics in South Asia are seen through the bilateral lens of tense India-Pakistan relations. However, in most cases, those tensions are actually trilateral, with Sino-Indian tensions playing out in the background. Afghanistan is no exception.

In recent days, Pakistan has dwelled on the Strategic Partnership between New Delhi and Kabul because of the security implications of India playing a bigger role in training Afghan security forces. This narrow focus has prevented Islamabad from emphasising the significance of two other pacts signed by India and Afghanistan last week. One MoU calls for enhanced cooperation in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, primarily oil and gas. A second MoU, signed between the Indian and Afghan ministries of mines, calls for promoting mineral exploration and investment in Afghanistan’s mines.

These MoUs were signed in the same week that it was revealed that the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) — the largest state-owned Chinese company — has won the rights to explore and develop oil fields in Afghanistan’s Amu Darya basin.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Alexander Benard and Eli Sugarman explain that Amu Darya contains five known fields containing 80 million barrels of crude oil, which amounts to 11,000 barrels per day for 20 years.

It is no secret that the Chinese government covets Afghanistan’s natural resources. In 2007, China won another major tender for the Aynak copper deposit, estimated to be worth $80bn. Indeed, China has recently invested in various Central Asian natural resources to supply energy and raw materials for its booming industries.

Rather than obsess purely about India’s security designs in Afghanistan vis-à-vis Pakistan, Islamabad should also plan for the China factor. It is clear that India and China are competing for access to Afghanistan’s rich mineral and energy resources. It is also clear that this competition fuels some of New Delhi’s strategic thinking regarding its presence in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s repeated failure to account for India’s concerns about China in a security and nuclear context has driven the country into an endless arms race.

Billions have been spent on conventional and nuclear weapons as Pakistan tries to compete with the testy economic powerhouses on its periphery. Before it makes the same mistake in Afghanistan, Pakistan should account for the fact that there are more than two players interested in present-day Afghanistan. Leaving India aside, Pakistan should also consider the medium- and long-term ramifications of Chinese investment in Afghanistan.

On the positive side, Pakistan could find ways to collaborate with China on its extractive and energy-related initiatives in Afghanistan. Such an involvement would expand Pakistan’s interface with Afghanistan beyond political interference to substantial investment and infrastructure development work. Given Pakistan’s worsening energy crisis, any additional options for access to energy must be pursued.

The political benefits of Chinese presence in Afghanistan are also worth noting: as a major investor in Afghanistan’s natural resource industries, China will also enjoy a fair amount of political influence in Kabul. The durability of the Sino-Pak relationship suggests that Beijing would intervene with Kabul in the future if Afghanistan chose to pursue policies hostile to Pakistan. Knowing that China would defend Pakistani interests should give Islamabad the confidence not to pursue paranoid or self-destructive policies in the name of ‘strategic depth’.

Of course, an expanded Chinese presence in Afghanistan could work against Pakistan, but only if Islamabad continues to pursue its current tack of backing militant groups as proxies. Beijing will have little patience for militants receiving Pakistani support if they in any way detract from China’s ability to reap the benefits of its investments (for example, if poor security prevents CNPC from exploring the oil fields at Amu Darya). Right now, China is letting the US do the dirty work of slapping Pakistan on the wrist for backing militant groups. Once US troops withdraw from the region in 2014, we can expect China to take a harder line: remember, it was on Beijing’s insistence that the Pakistan Army conducted Operation Silence at Lal Masjid in 2007.

China will also not tolerate any activities that could lead to a full-blown confrontation between Pakistan and India. While Beijing and New Delhi are engaged in fierce competition on the global stage, they also enjoy a significant trading relationship.
China does seven times more trade with India than it does with Pakistan, and is India’s largest trading partner, even over the US. China is aware that its long-standing strategic partnership with Pakistan would disrupt these strong economic ties in the event of a crisis. For that reason, it will pressurise Pakistan in the medium term to abandon the use of proxies against Indian interests in Afghanistan.


Finally, Beijing will probably bring in low-cost labour from China to work on extractive and explorative projects in Afghanistan. The last thing China needs is for these workers to become radicalised as a result of exposure to Pakistan-backed militant groups before returning to the mainland.

In sum, Pakistan’s adherence to the proxy war narrative is likely to prove misguided and counterproductive in years to come.
In the context of Chinese interests in Afghanistan, it also threatens to leave Pakistan isolated, even from its closest allies.


The writer is a freelance journalist.
huma.yusuf@gmail.com
-Dawn
 
Good suggestions, let's look to co operate with china in developing Afghanistan, this is the smart way to deal with the India menace coming from Afghanistan, a great idea.
 
And I should add, even if India were not in afghanistan these are the ways we should be looking to exploit the Chinese relationship.

I would ask our Chinese friends, do they share the same enthusiasm to help develop our economy as they do with our military??
 
The simplest thing to do is is concept of Greater Pakistan

Pakistan , absorbs Afghanistan into its territory as a Nuclear power , just like USA did to Alaska

And simple provide civilian infrastructure to its needs as a province of Pakistan

greater-pakistan2.jpg



Lets use logic

a) Which nation has the biggest border with it = Pakistan
b) Who provides 100% trade route to it = Pakisatn
c) Who houses 10 million residents , 20 million if you count ppl who migrate in and out since 1970's Pakistan
d) Which country acted as second home and trained the Afghans to play cricket Pakistan
e) Which country has cultural and religious closeness to it = Pakistan
f) Who shares a naming similarity with it Pakistan
g) Afghanistan was part of Pakistani territory (in old days until British came along)

THIS IS THE MOST LOGICAL - COMMON SENSE APPROACH A NEW PROVINCE


We move the capital city to dead center , away from Indian border, and construct new cities in
Afghania province

Bring in schools, bring in roads, hospitals , and military (Trained military and Pakistani Tanks and Ammo)


This is similar to what india did in cities like Goa , which were Portuguese controlled areas etc and forcefully took them and assimilated them into India


Pakistani province is the most logical , NATURAL , and humane solution - to conflict

With it being part of Pakistan Territory Drug Trade will be killed for ever replaced with crop and food plantation , which won't be alot but at least there will be no Drug Trade
END OF STORY
 
Pak shud advice china not to.enter afg now. After us gone, pak backed talibs kick out karzai. Destroy all stuff that indians built there bridge road and all stuff that r used to spy on pak. After that they r welcome. Any date after 2014. If world survives 2012.
 
And I should add, even if India were not in afghanistan these are the ways we should be looking to exploit the Chinese relationship.

I would ask our Chinese friends, do they share the same enthusiasm to help develop our economy as they do with our military??

whats your problem if india helping afghanistan?
 
The simplest thing to do is is concept of Greater Pakistan

Pakistan , absorbs Afghanistan into its territory as a Nuclear power , just like USA did to Alaska

And simple provide civilian infrastructure to its needs as a province of Pakistan

greater-pakistan2.jpg



Lets use logic

a) Which nation has the biggest border with it = Pakistan
b) Who provides 100% trade route to it = Pakisatn
c) Who houses 10 million residents , 20 million if you count ppl who migrate in and out since 1970's Pakistan
d) Which country acted as second home and trained the Afghans to play cricket Pakistan
e) Which country has cultural and religious closeness to it = Pakistan
f) Who shares a naming similarity with it Pakistan
g) Afghanistan was part of Pakistani territory (in old days until British came along)

THIS IS THE MOST LOGICAL - COMMON SENSE APPROACH A NEW PROVINCE


We move the capital city to dead center , away from Indian border, and construct new cities in
Afghania province

Bring in schools, bring in roads, hospitals , and military (Trained military and Pakistani Tanks and Ammo)


This is similar to what india did in cities like Goa , which were Portuguese controlled areas etc and forcefully took them and assimilated them into India


Pakistani province is the most logical , NATURAL , and humane solution - to conflict

With it being part of Pakistan Territory Drug Trade will be killed for ever replaced with crop and food plantation , which won't be alot but at least there will be no Drug Trade
END OF STORY

Thats an amazing idea mate..very logical indeed...you can get into even more crap than what your goin thru now. :yahoo:
 
The political benefits of Chinese presence in Afghanistan are also worth noting: as a major investor in Afghanistan’s natural resource industries, China will also enjoy a fair amount of political influence in Kabul. The durability of the Sino-Pak relationship suggests that Beijing would intervene with Kabul in the future if Afghanistan chose to pursue policies hostile to Pakistan. Knowing that China would defend Pakistani interests should give Islamabad the confidence not to pursue paranoid or self-destructive policies in the name of ‘strategic depth’.

This is what you continue to make same mistakes over and over again. Chinese are there for running their own massive factories. They are there to trade for their own economy and for their customers worldwide. Afghanistan gives them cheap mineral resources; which is more than gold for a manufacturing power like China.

What makes you think that China would risk political and economical image in China for Pakistan's sake? All-weather friend? Afghans don't like Pakistan. China has business interests in Afghanistan. Do the math. China can at the most suggest some methods in which neutral peace can exist if not hostility or cordial ties. Nothing more than that and nothing less than that. Why would they risk their own reputation and positive image in Afghanistan for Pakistan? I am not saying this to demean you guys.

It is all business and economics. Simple as it gets. Let me ask you one question; which country in terms of resources and hence revenue, would give much better Return on Investment (economics only)? A war torn Afghanistan, that has finally found a way to re-emerge as a prosperous state depending on its rich natural resources, offering China a far better price range for its minerals, or you lot where investment in security itself is such a huge cost for any investing company that the investing nation cannot manage to bring its margins within viable returns?
 
I usually like Huma Yusuf's articles when she talks about social issues in Pakistan, but her article above is self-contradictory.

Either Pakistan controls these "proxy militants", in which case Pakistan would make sure they don't attack Chinese interests, or Pakistan doesn't control them, in which case, there is nothing to talk about.
 
And I should add, even if India were not in afghanistan these are the ways we should be looking to exploit the Chinese relationship.

I would ask our Chinese friends, do they share the same enthusiasm to help develop our economy as they do with our military??

When I was member of this below forum few years ago
http://forum.*********************/index.php?act=idx

I always avocated Pakistan to develop an healthy economy before arm race with India...since you guys possess the Nuke, India will dare not to offend you...beside China will not sit idlely..so concentrate to build you nation enonomical strengh before military as China did : we have been sacrify almost 15 to 20 years of military stagnation and concentrate only on economy, once your economy is good, obviously your military be power up automanically.

Building and support Pakstan economy is Chinese best interest, a win-win for both countries..you can count me on for the vote.
 
Sino-US Security Issues in Asia

By Asifa Jahangir

In Far East, there is confrontation between China and USA. As it is being stated by strategic analysts and experts, Afghan war can be a cause of the USA’s supremacy in world politics. Therefore, she is tackling with China with two basic foreign policy instruments—encirclement and management—over Far East theatre. The sole superpower wants her hegemony in the region and has strong allies in the form of Japan, South Korea (SK) and Taiwan to support her ambitions. Starting from Taiwan issue, China considers it as an integral part with mainland China...

Original post..
 
but the fall of AMerican is started already .... thats like a dying person who uses his whole energy for his survival but cant survive :victory:
 

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