South Korea:
Japan
Aussie:
India:
US:
The balance of power is shifting quickly. US has already withdraw to Guam and Aussie. The first island chain is fragile, ROI is bad.
Please let me know your thought.
- South Korea major threat and interest is North Korea. While the last thing South Korea want to do is threatening China core interest.
- If South Korea did so, then simple, China will arm North Korea with second hand weapons. South Korea knew very well that confrontation with China is the worst option.
Japan
- Japan is smart and foxy. Japan will keep using US resource, technology, market, while try to get more independence.
- Japan lost WW2, a huge lesson to be remembered for 1000 years, conquered by US, humiliated, bombed by nukes.
- Japan love US sincerely? God damn no.
- US truly trust Japan? God damn no.
- US does not tolerate Japan independence. That's the cruel reality. A lap dog is what US needed.
Aussie:
- Aussie only 25 millions population. 12% of Pakistan, 1.7% of China population. What can Aussie do against China? Want to be bombed or conquered? Suicidal.
- Don't forget China is Aussie biggest customer. More the second and third biggest customers combined.
India:
- India economy is slowing down, even before pandemic. Modi can keep thumping 55" inch chest(smaller than 2014), but he must spend resource on economy, not war.
- Modi was checkmated in Aksai Chin, tens of thousands soldiers have to be forward deployed, with a fragile supply lane. A war with China, even medium scale skirmish will make Modi's be sleepless.
- The reality is India is facing two damn front war. The last thing India want. The best thing for Pakistan.
- US push India to the frontline, frankly speaking, using India as cannon fodder against both China and Pakistan. US and UK are good at it, stir the milky water, making 3 nuclear powers confront on land dispute. While India will be exhausted and used as proxy.
- I bet Modi has finally realized that US won't help India. What a fool.
US:
- The last thing US want is India becoming another China. US would rather use India as cannon fodder.
- US is in big trouble.
- Demographically and economically.
- Financially crisis, much worse than 2008.
- Pandemic will last another several month.
- US FED has printed trillions of dollars, debt is 21 trillions
- US is divided, more and more like India.
- US defense budget is high, there is no room to increase. But China is steadily increasing defense budget.
- More importantly, US had an edge on pioneer defense technology, while China has catching up.
- The geography favor China in West Pacific. In Cold War, there are numerous air base in West Europe. While in West Pacific, Japan, Japan, Japan.
- The first island chain is fragile. only several air base can be used which are all targeted by China Rocket Force, thousands of missiles. Especially DF-17, Hypersonic Glide Vehicle
- Soviet lost Cold War. The GDP of Warsaw Pact is much smaller than NATO + Korea + Japan + Canada. Soviet facing 2-3 front war, West Europe, North East Pacific, Caucasia, Arctic Ocean.
- China focus on West Pacific, which means US can only leverage the military force of Japan + Aussie.
- China GNP in PPP term is much bigger than US, GNP in nominal term will surpass US in 2026 or so.
- China long term GNP will be 2X of US, or even bigger.
- No countries want Cold War, Japan doesn't, Aussie doesn't, Korea doesn't, maybe except US.
- Soviet has not much relationship with US allies. China has more trade and commercial relationship with US allies than US itself.
- China is the biggest single market and biggest trade partners of most countries in the world.
- China retail market is over 6 trillions, bigger then US, and increasing much faster then US.
- China enjoyed much better neighborhood relationship and has very close ties with all neighbors, especially Russia, Central Asia, South East Asia.
- There is no way US can isolate China.
- The US allies actually using hedging tactic between China and US.
- China has back safeguarded, mainly focus on one side which is West Pacific.
- China has much greater potential to dominate West Pacific, while US has reach it's peak.
- The geopolitics is in China favor.
- US empire is declining, inner issues is much bigger then outer challenges.
- US financial situation is deteriorating.
The balance of power is shifting quickly. US has already withdraw to Guam and Aussie. The first island chain is fragile, ROI is bad.
Please let me know your thought.
