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Power Equations in 2050 : HSBC

Holmes

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Don't know if it's a conspiracy site, but....

HSBC forecasts new four economic powers

The forecast is based on demographic and social trends such as birth rate, the national level of health and education. It also takes into account the current investment attractiveness which includes the protection of property rights, the state’s influence on the economy, the level of democracy, and monetary policy of the authorities.
HSBC Group’s analysts headed by Karen Ward have produced a forecast of development one hundred major world economies by 2050. The bank has essentially proposed an alternative BRIC concept where Brazil and Russia will be dropped from a group of large fast-growing economies which will grow by only 3-5% per year in the next 40 years. The leaders in growth will be the Philippines, Chile, Peru and Ukraine, Finmarket reported. The key to high growth rates in these countries will lie in a low base effect, good demographics, and improvements in the legislation. The bank’s analysts made projections for 2000-2010, which were close to the actual results. China will be the world’s largest economy by 2050 followed by India. Both countries will overtake the United States. The Philippines will be the most rapidly growing economy overtaking Japan. In Latin America, the leading position will belong to Peru, which will grow by an average of 5.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts who introduced the BRIC term 10 years ago believe that the peak growth of the BRIC countries is over.

http://caspionet.kz/eng/business/HSBC_forecasts_new_four_economic_powers_1326864080.html
 
Don't know if it's a conspiracy site, but....

HSBC forecasts new four economic powers

The forecast is based on demographic and social trends such as birth rate, the national level of health and education. It also takes into account the current investment attractiveness which includes the protection of property rights, the state’s influence on the economy, the level of democracy, and monetary policy of the authorities.
HSBC Group’s analysts headed by Karen Ward have produced a forecast of development one hundred major world economies by 2050. The bank has essentially proposed an alternative BRIC concept where Brazil and Russia will be dropped from a group of large fast-growing economies which will grow by only 3-5% per year in the next 40 years. The leaders in growth will be the Philippines, Chile, Peru and Ukraine, Finmarket reported. The key to high growth rates in these countries will lie in a low base effect, good demographics, and improvements in the legislation. The bank’s analysts made projections for 2000-2010, which were close to the actual results. China will be the world’s largest economy by 2050 followed by India. Both countries will overtake the United States. The Philippines will be the most rapidly growing economy overtaking Japan. In Latin America, the leading position will belong to Peru, which will grow by an average of 5.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts who introduced the BRIC term 10 years ago believe that the peak growth of the BRIC countries is over.

HSBC forecasts new four economic powers

Now, Citi Bank predicts that by 2050 India would be the largest economy in the world overtaking both China ad US. Now whom to believe :undecided:

India likely to be world's largest economy by 2050: Citi - Times Of India
 
These economic experts could not even predict the Credit Crunch one week before it happened. :lol:

Now we're talking about half a century into the future? That is just ridiculous.

If they can predict the future, then they should tell me how the stock market will move tomorrow, so I can become rich. Thank you in advance.
 
Plans and predictions rarely work.

What works is hard work. Nations need to simply put their heads down and concentrate on themselves and what impacts them, the rest will follow.
 
These economic experts could not even predict the Credit Crunch one week before it happened.

Now we're talking about half a century into the future? That is ridiculous. :lol:

If they can predict the future, then they should tell me how the stock market will move tomorrow, so I can become rich. Thank you in advance.

Now there is a difference in predicting credit crunches and sizes of economies. There was virtually no information about credit crunch. Everything was so healthy till the end. Remember Lehman Brother; just weeks before credit crunch, the financial health of Lehman Brothers was top notch, but turned out to be totally illiquid. Now economies are different. Economists have lot of informations from the past performance of countries, their competitive advantages, industrial performances and other advantages. So predicting economies is much easier. Remember BRIC; how Goldman Sachs prediction about BRIC turned out to be very true. When BRIC was coined, few people wanted to bet on BRIC, now BRIC is a reality.
 
Economists have lot of informations from the past performance of countries, their competitive advantages, industrial performances and other advantages. So predicting economies is much easier. Remember BRIC; how Goldman Sachs prediction about BRIC turned out to be very true. When BRIC was coined, few people wanted to bet on BRIC, now BRIC is a reality.

Future predictions are just that, they are just "predictions".

I can find thousands of different expert predictions all on the same subject. They are all equally worthless until it actually happens.

And if you read the original BRIC report by Goldman Sachs, you'll see how far off their predictions really were. Virtually all of the dates were wrong.

And in any case, predictions of what will happen half a century into the future are just plain ridiculous. There are way too many variables.
 
@Chinese dragon....I totally agree. Prediction of market let alone economies is susceptible to large number of unaccounted factors which affect the analysis no matter how much data you have. Nonlinear affect of these factors are hard to measure.
 
Now there is a difference in predicting credit crunches and sizes of economies. There was virtually no information about credit crunch. Everything was so healthy till the end. Remember Lehman Brother; just weeks before credit crunch, the financial health of Lehman Brothers was top notch, but turned out to be totally illiquid. Now economies are different. Economists have lot of informations from the past performance of countries, their competitive advantages, industrial performances and other advantages. So predicting economies is much easier. Remember BRIC; how Goldman Sachs prediction about BRIC turned out to be very true. When BRIC was coined, few people wanted to bet on BRIC, now BRIC is a reality.

This is wrong. Plenty of people predicted Lehman like Einhorn.

The further out, the less accurate the predictions. That is entropy, heat equation, and statistcal fact.

1.7 billion starving Indians in 2050, scary.
 
Future predictions are just that, they are just "predictions".

I can find thousands of different expert predictions all on the same subject. They are all equally worthless until it actually happens.

And if you read the original BRIC report by Goldman Sachs, you'll see how far off their predictions really were. Virtually all of the dates were wrong.

And in any case, predictions of what will happen half a century into the future are just ridiculous.

All predictions have assumptions. The quality of your prediction depends on the the quality of your assumptions. Most assumptions about economies are rational.For ex: one of the predictions while calculating sizes of economies is that countries will maintain the status quo. I have no reasons not to believe why China and India would not be the 1st and 2nd largest economies in the world. Unless of course, there is a war or a very scale human tragedy or a disruptive technology/event that will alter the competitive advantages of the countries.
 
LOL....,just because a month back, rupee was down, india had worst performing currency and in BRIC India was replaced by Indonesia.

while we have another article, where BRIC is replaced by just IC....
 
This is wrong. Plenty of people predicted Lehman like Einhorn.

The further out, the less accurate the predictions. That is entropy, heat equation, and statistcal fact.

1.7 billion starving Indians in 2050, scary.

Are you talking about black & scholes equation derived from heat transfer...? :)
One thing i learned in mathematical modelling is that statistical analysis using ode, pde, neural networks, artifical intelligence, small world networks etc. predicts an entire different situation sometimes. Thats why we need new models, search new variables and their effect.

1.7 billion starving Indians, who the hell predicted it and what model they use.... kindly provide link..

Cheers
 

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