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Poverty eradication uphill task for Pakistan, India: World Bank

Max

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WASHINGTON: Statistics released by the World Bank this week show that both India and Pakistan face an uphill task in eradicating poverty, despite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s claim that Islamabad needs to learn from New Delhi how to fight poverty.

The World Bank report — “Poverty and Shared Prosperity” — places Pakistan among the countries where incomes of the poorest are growing faster than average. The poorest in Pakistan are slightly ahead of the four per cent national growth rate while China tops the list with a more than 8pc growth rate. Sri Lanka is also in this category.

India is placed among the countries where incomes of the poorest are growing slower than average, although it has one of the world’s fastest growing economies.

Editorial: Poverty in nuclear South Asia

Overall, the statistics show that while in some fields India is doing better than Pakistan, in others Pakistan is ahead.

The data shows that as many as 21.25pc Indians live at or below the World Bank’s poverty line of $1.90 a day compared to 8.3pc in Pakistan.

And 58pc Indians make $3.10 a day, compared to 45pc in Pakistan.

Although the bank hopes that Bangladesh can overcome its poverty by 2030 if it continued its robust economic reforms, the statistics show that 43.7pc Bangladeshis continue to live at or below $1.90 while 77.6pc live at $3.10 a day.

Life expectancy
India fares marginally better than Pakistan in life expectancy, which was 68 years in India and 66.1 years in Pakistan in 2014. India has an edge in life expectancy for women too, 69.49 years versus 67.15 years for Pakistan.

India, however, has a clear edge in adult female literacy with 59.2pc in 2011, while for Pakistan it was 41.9pc.

Infant mortality in India declined from 46.3 per 1000 live births in 2010 to 37.9 in 2015, while for Pakistan the comparable figures are 73.5 in 2010 and 65.8 in 2015. This gives a clear advantage to India.

India is better in dealing with undernourishment as well, with 15.2pc of its population undernourished in 2015, compared to 22 per cent in Pakistan.

The World Bank report shows that during 2007 and 2013, Pakistan’s annualised growth in mean consumption for the bottom 40pc was 2.81pc, compared to 2.53pc for the total population.

The mean consumption or income per capita, (US dollar per person) for the bottom 40pc was 2.07pc as compared to 3.81pc for the total population.

The data for most recent year shows the annualised growth rate for the bottom 40pc at 2.44pc while it was 4.42pc for the total population.

The data also shows that increased schooling has led to more productive nonfarm activities in Pakistan.

Similarly, conditioning cash support to low income families to children’s regular school attendance at school, led to large increases in enrolment (between 11 to 13pc) in Pakistan.

Pakistan is also among the countries where the World Bank study noticed a shift toward declining inequality between 2008 and 2013. In Pakistan, the Gini index, which measures inequality, fell by −2.4 points.

Published in Dawn, October 4th, 2016

Poverty eradication uphill task for Pakistan, India: World Bank
 
I guess the same report Thinks Bangladesh will be able to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030.

I guess there is a mistake in the report. According to the report published yesterday People living in Bangladesh below 1.3 $ are 18% not 43%.. (2010 Data) which is at present estimated 13%
 
I guess the same report Thinks Bangladesh will be able to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030.

I guess there is a mistake in the report. According to the report published yesterday People living in Bangladesh below 1.3 $ are 18% not 43%.. (2010 Data) which is at present estimated 13%


The numbers cited in this article are correct. Your numbers are incorrect. The (Bangladeshi) article you are referring to does not define what they mean numerically by "extreme poverty". Secondly, the World Bank has not updated its figures, at least as far as I could find. I looked through the report they released.

This what the most updated data looks like (2010/2011):

poverty-equity-data-south-asia-the-world-bank-png.334374



$1.90 or less a day:

Pakistan: 8.3%

India: 21.3%

Bangladesh: 43.7%


$3.10 or less a day:

Pakistan: 45%

India: 58%

Bangladesh: 77.6%


http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=poverty-and-equity-database
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=poverty-and-equity-database
 
The numbers cited in this article are correct. Your numbers are incorrect. The (Bangladeshi) article you are referring to does not define what they mean numerically by "extreme poverty". Secondly, the World Bank has not updated its figures, at least as far as I could find. I looked through the report they released.

This what the most updated data looks like (2010/2011):

poverty-equity-data-south-asia-the-world-bank-png.334374



$1.90 or less a day:

Pakistan: 8.3%

India: 21.3%

Bangladesh: 43.7%


$3.10 or less a day:

Pakistan: 45%

India: 58%

Bangladesh: 77.6%


http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=poverty-and-equity-database

Very interesting draft, Thought always that Maldives had way much less poverty than Sri Lanka and Bhutan is actually has a better headcount when it comes to the numbers $3.10 or less than a day, That shows much of the poor in Sri Lanka is worse off than Bhutan
 
The numbers cited in this article are correct. Your numbers are incorrect. The (Bangladeshi) article you are referring to does not define what they mean numerically by "extreme poverty". Secondly, the World Bank has not updated its figures, at least as far as I could find. I looked through the report they released.

This what the most updated data looks like (2010/2011):

poverty-equity-data-south-asia-the-world-bank-png.334374



$1.90 or less a day:

Pakistan: 8.3%

India: 21.3%

Bangladesh: 43.7%


$3.10 or less a day:

Pakistan: 45%

India: 58%

Bangladesh: 77.6%


http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=poverty-and-equity-database
The World Bank said in a statement that under the new poverty line based on 2011 purchasing power, 28 million, or 18.5 percent of Bangladeshis lived in extreme poverty in 2010.

It is published yesterday . Also the year 2030 doesn't add up if you consider 43%.

18% - year 2010
13% - year. 2016
8% - year 2020 ( Five year plan)
0% - Year 2030.

The figure you quoted isn't updated. Lots of other WB records contains 18% data. Also 5 year plan is implemented with the help of WB and Donors. It can't be done incorrectly.
 
The buying power of $1.90 a day varies in different countries so it's comparing apples with oranges.

To state the obvious, from the article above, it appears that $1 90 in India is buying better nutrition, healthcare and literacy than for example Pakistan in this case.

Poverty should be measured in "access" to education, shelter, nutrition , female empowerment etc than only a $ value.

Anyway good news, people are better off this generation In all respects than the last! May that continue.
 
Very interesting draft, Thought always that Maldives had way much less poverty than Sri Lanka and Bhutan is actually has a better headcount when it comes to the numbers $3.10 or less than a day, That shows much of the poor in Sri Lanka is worse off than Bhutan


Sri Lanka is the king of the pack when it comes to development and higher income levels. Kudos. We other South Asians like to brag among ourselves, but Sri Lanka is ahead of all. Other South Asian countries should pay more attention to what it has done these past few decades. They could learn something.

Bhutan and the Maldives are impressive too, but they cannot be compared to countries with populations in the tens of millions and hundreds of millions. It's much easier to develop when you have few people and little land.

The buying power of $1.90 a day varies in different countries so it's comparing apples with oranges.


The data in question uses PPP figures which adjust for the issue you mentioned. So no, it is in fact properly comparing poverty between these countries. Click the link:

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS

The World Bank said in a statement that under the new poverty line based on 2011 purchasing power, 28 million, or 18.5 percent of Bangladeshis lived in extreme poverty in 2010.

It is published yesterday . Also the year 2030 doesn't add up if you consider 43%.

18% - year 2010
13% - year. 2016
8% - year 2020 ( Five year plan)
0% - Year 2030.

The figure you quoted isn't updated. Lots of other WB records contains 18% data. Also 5 year plan is implemented with the help of WB and Donors. It can't be done incorrectly.


The 2010 data for $1.90 a day or less was always 43.7% for Bangladesh:

Poverty and Equity Database World DataBank.png


poverty-equity-data-south-asia-the-world-bank-png.334374



Click the links please. It's the only way to clear things up:

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=poverty-and-equity-database
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS


@nilgiri
 
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@Doyalbaba Can you please co-relate?

Sri Lanka is the king of the pack when it comes to development and higher income levels. Kudos. We other South Asians like to brag among ourselves, but Sri Lanka is ahead of all. Other South Asian countries should pay more attention to what it has done these past few decades. They could learn something.

Bhutan and the Maldives are impressive too, but they cannot be compared to countries with populations in the tens of millions and hundreds of millions. It's much easier to develop when you have few people and little land.




The data in question uses PPP figures which adjust for the issue you mentioned. So no, it is in fact properly comparing poverty between these countries. Click the link:

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS





No they didn't. This news article only discusses "extreme poverty", though it doesn't define in numbers what that level was. It says that the poverty level was $1.90 a day, not the extreme poverty level. It's a bit confusing, yes. But they seem to be two different things.

This is the actual report that the articles are referring to. See if you can find what you are claiming and take a screenshot:

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25078/210958KeyFindings.pdf

I looked through it, and could not find a figure stating that the $1.90 a day level had fallen to what you are claiming for Bangladesh. Your first post can shed some light on where you seem to be mistaken. The extreme poverty level has fallen from 18% in 2010 to 13% in 2016 (according to Bangladeshi sources), but there is no mention of what that level is numerically.

The 2010 data for $1.90 a day or less was always 43.7% for Bangladesh:

View attachment 340422

poverty-equity-data-south-asia-the-world-bank-png.334374



Click the links please. It's the only way to clear things up:

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=poverty-and-equity-database
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS


@nilgiri

Well So you think WB meant we will take 43% people (70 million) out of extreme poverty within 20 years? I am pretty sure I am correct.
 
Last edited:
The 43.7% figure (for 2010) is absolutely correct, all sources show this. Both links I've posted for the chart and graph, are taken directly from the World Bank's site.

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SAS

You seem to be confusing the term "extreme poverty" with the $1.90 or less a day level, that's the issue. They are not the same thing. The extreme poverty level they are using has to be less than $1.90 or less a day. Bangladesh's "extreme poverty level" according to your sources (not mine) was 18% in 2010. But the amount of people making $1.90 or less a day was 43.7% in 2010. Again, they are not the same thing.

I'm sure that you can eradicate "extreme poverty" in just 20 years, because it was only 18% in 2010. And it is allegedly down to 13% now (according to Bangladeshi sources). The $1.90 or less figure is a separate issue, that will take much longer to get past.

What is the definition of extreme poverty level which WB trying to mean to be ended in 2030?
 
I'm not sure. I'd like to know myself. It may also vary from country to country. But again, it must be less than $1.90 or less a day. Whatever it is, it seems to have been 18% of the population in 2010.

It is clearly mentioned here - The definition of Extreme poverty is clearly mentioned... If there is a confusion it is somewhere else.

Extreme poverty in Bangladesh declined further to 12.9 per cent in the financial year (FY) 2015-16, according to the latest Bangladesh Development Update, released by the World Bank (WB) in Dhaka Monday.

The Update has projected 6.8 per cent economic growth for the country in the current financial year (FY 2016-17) -- 0.4 per cent less than the government's target.

The government has set a target of 7.2 per cent growth in the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the FY2017.

"Without boosting Total Factor Productivity growth and private investment relative to GDP, Bangladesh is unlikely to sustain 7.0 per cent growth going forward," the WB Update said.

Based on its updated global extreme poverty measurement methodology, the global lender in its report titled "Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016: Taking on Inequality" said the rate of alleviation of poverty in Bangladesh is impressive.

Under the 2011 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the Bank has changed its extreme poverty measurement method where it has said a person who will have an income below US$1.90 per day will be considered as an extreme poor.

Earlier, the WB used to measure extreme poverty on the basis of $1.25 income per day.

Meanwhile, the government's estimate shows that Bangladesh's extreme poverty declined to 12.1 per cent while the absolute poverty to 23.6 per cent in FY2016.

Lead Economist of the WB Dhaka office Zahid Hussain in a presentation said the extreme poverty has gone down as the PPP exchange rate for Bangladesh appreciated from Tk 52.4 per US$ in 2005 to Tk 24.8 per US$ in 2011 due to methodological upgradation.

"This means the purchasing power of taka relative to US$ was stronger than previously estimated," he added.

Explaining, he said, the poverty estimate done by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is based on its own methodology from the national perspective while the WB counts on its unique global methodology.

Mr Hussain termed Bangladesh's economic growth as a "shared prosperity" one, saying that the country's bottom 40 per cent people's income growth or consumption per capita is 0.43 percentage point higher than that of the total population.

"Bangladesh has outperformed India, Pakistan and Bhutan, but fell behind the neighbours in East Asia including China, Vietnam and Cambodia on this indicator in sharing prosperity."

Bangladesh's per capita consumption of the bottom 40 per cent grew by 1.77 per cent per annum during 2005-2010 while that of total population expanded by 1.34 per cent per annum.

The WB lead economist, however, projected a poor prospect in achieving the SDG-1 (Sustainable Development Goal-1) with the current poverty reduction and economic growth trends in the country.

He said: "If the country wants to achieve the goal, the GDP growth needs to pick up to 8.8 per cent annually or it has to focus on more inclusive growth with the current 6.1 per cent growth average between 2005 and 2010."

According to the SDG-1, a country will have to cut its poverty to below 3.0 per cent by the year 2030.

On the 7.05 per cent GDP growth in FY2016, Mr Hussain said industrial growth was the main driver with rebounded export earnings.

"Bangladesh's export is heavily dependent on the readymade garments. Its export diversification policy has not worked. The country should work on the diversification," he suggested.

The WB economist said the gap between the government's investment target in the 7th five-year plan and the achievement is widening, which is a bad news for the country.

"Although the country's savings to GDP is higher than the investment to GDP, the private investment is not occurring, raising question whether capital flight is going on," he added.

Explaining the reason for lower investment than the target, Mr Hussain said Bangladesh is not improving in WB's doing business indicators and its policy and structural reforms are not getting pace with the entrepreneurs --especially the foreign investors are not getting faith here.

The WB development update has projected a lower GDP growth to 6.2 per cent in the next FY2018 too as it said the consumption will fall further with a declining remittance inflow.

Mr Hussain said remittance in the last FY2016 fell by 2.5 per cent and in July-August period of this fiscal year fell 15.3 per cent as compared to the corresponding period of last fiscal year.

"Since the global oil price has fallen sharply, the Bangladeshi migrant workers mostly in the gulf countries are getting lower payments than the past years from their employers. It has affected the remittance flow to Bangladesh despite a growth of the number of overseas job holders," he said.

Hussain cautioned about the increasing urban inflationary trend, saying it would affect the inclusive growth of the country. "The sudden pick of the urban inflation may be an impact of the salary hike of the public servants. But this inflationary pressure needs to be tamed down."

The WB development outlook has showed the security; and financial and trade shocks as the main downside risks for the economic development of the country.

"The security shocks have the potential to cause damage to the economy, particularly impacting investment and consumer confidence," said Hussain.

He also said that there are some international shocks like weaker-than-expected global trade, increased trade protections in some countries, weaker than expected remittance and an unexpected tightening of global financing conditions on the Bangladesh's economy.

Meanwhile, WB Country Director Qimiao Fan said Bangladesh has done an impressive job in reducing poverty over the last decades and has the potential to end extreme poverty by 2030 if it takes firm steps to make growth more inclusive to benefit all citizens.

The economy in Bangladesh is very much resilient despite different challenges in the country, he added.

Mr Fan said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim plans to travel to Bangladesh later this month as part of a global End Poverty Day campaign.

"His visit is intended to draw attention to Bangladesh's impressive record in dramatically reducing extreme poverty."
 
Sri Lanka is the king of the pack when it comes to development and higher income levels. Kudos. We other South Asians like to brag among ourselves, but Sri Lanka is ahead of all. Other South Asian countries should pay more attention to what it has done these past few decades. They could learn something.

Bhutan and the Maldives are impressive too, but they cannot be compared to countries with populations in the tens of millions and hundreds of millions. It's much easier to develop when you have few people and little land.

Long way to go though.. I'am surprised at Maldives though yes they're a small island chain and has a higher GDP per capita than SL but also a higher percentage of those under poverty, Intriguing

The buying power of $1.90 a day varies in different countries so it's comparing apples with oranges.

To state the obvious, from the article above, it appears that $1 90 in India is buying better nutrition, healthcare and literacy than for example Pakistan in this case.

Poverty should be measured in "access" to education, shelter, nutrition , female empowerment etc than only a $ value.

Anyway good news, people are better off this generation In all respects than the last! May that continue.

You can also look at in another way even with a higher purchasing power if you have high number of people in poverty that means, In absolute terms they are worse off, And very susceptible to even small economic variations.. Even a slight increase in inflation a large chunk of those people will crash in to abject poverty
 
I guess I have found it. @LA se Karachi


Lead Economist of the WB Dhaka office Zahid Hussain in a presentation said the extreme poverty has gone down as the PPP exchange rate for Bangladesh appreciated from Tk 52.4 per US$ in 2005 to Tk 24.8 per US$ in 2011 due to methodological upgradation.

Now As a science Student, My grasp is limited in economics. Some other Bangladeshis should look into it and clear the confusion for once and all.

Also tagging @Nilgiri
 
@LA se Karachi - you're right about PPP. I was just trying to figure out why the discrepancy with other elements like infant mortality, literacy, nutrition etc.

there are a lot of subsidized freebies in India for the poor. Badly run, no doubt, but they do exist in large numbers...free and very low cost governmental hospitals, free schools ( though the quality is appalling), a public distribution system for food where you can buy a kilo rice or flour for a couple of rupees. Maybe that is why there is an anomaly here...otherwise you would expect proportionality.
 

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