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Planet could be 'unrecognizable' by 2050, experts say

conworldus

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Aug 20, 2009
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The virtue of China's one child policy is never clearer.

India, please control your population. A big young population without the resources will not make your economy grow, it will be a burden.

Planet could be 'unrecognizable' by 2050, experts say - Yahoo! News

WASHINGTON (AFP) – A growing, more affluent population competing for ever scarcer resources could make for an "unrecognizable" world by 2050, researchers warned at a major US science conference Sunday.
The United Nations has predicted the global population will reach seven billion this year, and climb to nine billion by 2050, "with almost all of the growth occurring in poor countries, particularly Africa and South Asia," said John Bongaarts of the non-profit Population Council.
To feed all those mouths, "we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000," said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
"By 2050 we will not have a planet left that is recognizable" if current trends continue, Clay said.
The swelling population will exacerbate problems, such as resource depletion, said John Casterline, director of the Initiative in Population Research at Ohio State University.
But incomes are also expected to rise over the next 40 years -- tripling globally and quintupling in developing nations -- and add more strain to global food supplies.
People tend to move up the food chain as their incomes rise, consuming more meat than they might have when they made less money, the experts said.
It takes around seven pounds (3.4 kilograms) of grain to produce a pound of meat, and around three to four pounds of grain to produce a pound of cheese or eggs, experts told AFP.
"More people, more money, more consumption, but the same planet," Clay told AFP, urging scientists and governments to start making changes now to how food is produced.
Population experts, meanwhile, called for more funding for family planning programs to help control the growth in the number of humans, especially in developing nations.
"For 20 years, there's been very little investment in family planning, but there's a return of interest now, partly because of the environmental factors like global warming and food prices," said Bongaarts.
"We want to minimize population growth, and the only viable way to do that is through more effective family planning," said Casterline.
 
I don`t think most people care for anything other their own problems, let alone the worlds. As did China when 500 million became, correct me if i`m wrong in 30 years?, to 1.4billion. The leaders back then probably knew what they were doing, they lacked technology so they sought strength in numbers... And now China is the main competitor to the US, and that says a lot.
Hate to see this world suffer for past mistakes, mass populations, crude oil consumption... When "Green" energy was available all along, it just wasnt as profitable as Oil. Israeli innovation and research has advanced solar technology to a degree that it is almost cost-competitive with fossil fuels. But almost doesn`t cut it.
 
I don`t think most people care for anything other their own problems, let alone the worlds. As did China when 500 million became, correct me if i`m wrong in 30 years?, to 1.4billion. The leaders back then probably knew what they were doing, they lacked technology so they sought strength in numbers... And now China is the main competitor to the US, and that says a lot.
Hate to see this world suffer for past mistakes, mass populations, crude oil consumption... When "Green" energy was available all along, it just wasnt as profitable as Oil. Israeli innovation and research has advanced solar technology to a degree that it is almost cost-competitive with fossil fuels. But almost doesn`t cut it.

oh come on, 500million to 1.4billion in 30 years? don't tell me you believe that.
 
I don`t think most people care for anything other their own problems, let alone the worlds. As did China when 500 million became, correct me if i`m wrong in 30 years?, to 1.4billion. The leaders back then probably knew what they were doing, they lacked technology so they sought strength in numbers... And now China is the main competitor to the US, and that says a lot.
Hate to see this world suffer for past mistakes, mass populations, crude oil consumption... When "Green" energy was available all along, it just wasnt as profitable as Oil. Israeli innovation and research has advanced solar technology to a degree that it is almost cost-competitive with fossil fuels. But almost doesn`t cut it.
All of your data is wrong. In 1981, 30 years ago, China's population was just under 1 billion. It grew an extra 35% in the next 29 years to 1.341 billion by 2010. By 1981, China's leaders already knew strength in numbers was wrong which is why they instituted the 1-child policy in 1978. China's population control has little to do with it's economic competitiveness with the US or any other country. It's economic competitiveness vis-a-vis the United States in particular is a result of China's conversion to market capitalism (Capitalism with Chinese characteristics) and American self-inflicted trade export sanctions against China.

Concerning solar energy, it is the most costly of the green energy options and massively more expensive than fossil fuels. We're talking like not even close. State of the art solar panels produce 1 kWh for $0.24 USD$. Coal fired power plants produce 1 kWh for $0.045 USD$. That's over 5 times more expensive for solar. I doubt things will get cheap enough to be competitive with fossil fuels especially given that solar does not provide baseload power and nuclear does while producing power that really is competitive to fossil fuels.


* COMPARISON OF ENERGY COSTS (Nuclear, Coal, Gas, Wind, Solar, Hydro) *
Comparing Energy Costs of Nuclear, Coal, Gas, Wind and Solar
 
Well i did say correct me if i`m wrong... My apologies then, from 640 million in 1960 to 1.331Billion in 2009.
World Bank, World Development Indicators - Google public data
Quite amazing nevertheless.
And about the Solar energy... It isn`t the standard technology your article is based on.
http://www.businessweek.com/globalb...tm?chan=globalbiz_europe+index+page_companies

Rooftops all over Israel look strikingly similar: More than 1 million households in the nation of 7.1 million people have solar panels that produce hot water—a relatively simple technology that gained popularity after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, when oil prices shot up sharply. As of the early 1990s, all new residential buildings were required by the government to install solar water-heating systems.

Yet despite Israel's sunny climate and early lead in solar heating, it has been slow in adopting more sophisticated solar technologies that produce electricity from sunlight. Now, with oil hovering above $100 a barrel, a local startup hopes to build on the country's early embrace of sun power to carve out a new clean-energy business.

Zenith Solar, based in Nes Ziona near Tel Aviv, is a pioneer in a new type of solar energy that uses mirrors and lenses to focus and intensify the sun's light, producing far more electricity at lower cost. Compared with traditional flat photovoltaic panels made of silicon, this so-called concentrated solar power technology has proved in tests to be up to five times more efficient. That puts it on the verge of being competitive with oil and natural gas, even without government subsidies.
 
Population growth in poor countries is not the problem.

Population growth in the US is a problem.

1 american can feed 10 africans. The key is to reduce the number of americans.
 
I suspected that population increase actually have something to do with periodic overthrows of chinese dynasty in pre-industrial agricultural society when coupled with natural disasters and ineffective government.

And then the culling began, and it is interesting that the next starting dynasty would always begin with a population number within a certain range and much lower than the previous one.

An honest comment: India may have already passed the best time for stable population control. It is like slowing a train down, these policies takes time to take effect.

US living standards may go down, but with their arable lands and natural resources, as well as similar size in land area to china they really have potential to grew another few 100 millions. In which case it would be more comparable to china in population also. So US competitiveness would be something for china to take long term notice.

Without US, England would be the only anglo culture identity. The influence US has in spreading the english cultural is immense.

If china had discovered america first, it would likely have broken away into another independent country already, abit one that also speaks chinese. Now that US was made out of the british china will have to live with it for a long time to come.
 
Population growth in poor countries is not the problem.

Population growth in the US is a problem.

1 american can feed 10 africans. The key is to reduce the number of americans.
The key is not to make stupid comments like that, borderline racism. They have much better lifes than most yes, but the key is to find a technological way to reduce famine all over the world. And not by exterminating Americans...
 
Zenith Solar, based in Nes Ziona near Tel Aviv, is a pioneer in a new type of solar energy that uses mirrors and lenses to focus and intensify the sun's light, producing far more electricity at lower cost. Compared with traditional flat photovoltaic panels made of silicon, this so-called concentrated solar power technology has proved in tests to be up to five times more efficient. That puts it on the verge of being competitive with oil and natural gas, even without government subsidies.
This is not a feasible solution for 4 reasons...

  1. solar does not provide baseload power
  2. solar power is not energy dense (requires LOTS of land)
  3. most parts of Earth are not sunshine rich like the Middle East
  4. Liquid Thorium nuclear reactor power will be 4 times cheaper than cheapest fossil fuel

That last one in my opinion is going to provide unlimited, cheap, safe power and turn first China and then the rest of the world into an environmental garden of Eden. To power an industrialized country into the future, you need energy dense reliable baseload power. Only fossil fuel, hydro and nuclear can provide this.
 
Population growth in poor countries is not the problem.

Population growth in the US is a problem.

1 american can feed 10 africans. The key is to reduce the number of americans.

The key is not to make stupid comments like that, borderline racism. They have much better lifes than most yes, but the key is to find a technological way to reduce famine all over the world. And not by exterminating Americans...
It makes perfect sense and it's no more racist than having environmental experts advocate population control in poor countries. Nobody suggested exterminating anybody. :what: If population control measures were introduced in the most energy intense nations (Western Europe, US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Singapore) we would have that much more time to save the planet.
 
I still think fusion will be the ultimate solution to energy problems, or if we can find a way to beam energy back to earth, orbital solar panels. Eventually we still need to expand off this planet.
 
Well, if we look around it's the white man caught in almost all the race related problem.

But coming back to the Topic.

10 Richest people of the world have more wealth than the total cumulative GDP of 50 poorest countries.

How is that for an eye opener...
 
The United Nations has predicted the global population will reach seven billion this year, and climb to nine billion by 2050, "with almost all of the growth occurring in poor countries, particularly Africa and South Asia," said John Bongaarts of the non-profit Population Council.
To feed all those mouths, "we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000," said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

and some one say that its god who feed people... Asian and African country Must stop dragging god in this isue and stop breeding...
 
Why is this racist nonsense by the same people obsessed with race taking over all threads? How does one discuss even common issues affecting all of us when the same rants abt race, americans, defacation blah blah blah is repeated everywhere and unchecked by these programmed trojans???
 

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