Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves to reach 19 billion dollars by end this month: Finance Minister

[Gorgin Khan]

Sir i would advise you do your home work
Growth rate of 4.4 vs 5.2 is not much different
Infact given govt fiscal deficit will remain around 5-5.5% of gdp instead of 6.9% its actually much better

All money is borrowed you just need to look at interest rates debt to gdp ratio..borrowing infact has gone down(including the arab support fund) reason is CAD has halfed so borrowing requirement is halfed

What PMLN DID was to borrow to limit where everyone except IMF refuses to lend..that has almost change and borrowing has opened up again

Inflation should remain from 5-8% for economy like us an artifical lower inflation will cause slow down in savings...big topic ...

Its not in double digits but may go up theee but whise fault is that..you kept it artificially low and no rupee devaluation will cause it to shoot...had ir been kept at 5-8% this would have never happened

Fact dont lie sentimental speeches like yours are biased and has led us to this situation ..

Werent the Pakistani peoples the sentimental type they would have never voted a party that actually bankrupted us in 1998

Stop blaming the current govt for previous wrong doing there is no magical wond to finish all debts and deficits we should look at change and improvement ..if you fail to find that go and get a check from PMLN media cell

I will critize this govt where its due ..what i am pointing out today i pointed in 2016 when fiscal deficit sky rocketted. This was also pointed out by other scholars like ishafaq hassan and IMF WB in their reports

Sir i would advise you do your home work
Growth rate of 4.4 vs 5.2 is not much different
Infact given govt fiscal deficit will remain around 5-5.5% of gdp instead of 6.9% its actually much better

All money is borrowed you just need to look at interest rates debt to gdp ratio..borrowing infact has gone down(including the arab support fund) reason is CAD has halfed so borrowing requirement is halfed

What PMLN DID was to borrow to limit where everyone except IMF refuses to lend..that has almost change and borrowing has opened up again

Inflation should remain from 5-8% for economy like us an artifical lower inflation will cause slow down in savings...big topic ...

Its not in double digits but may go up theee but whise fault is that..you kept it artificially low and no rupee devaluation will cause it to shoot...had ir been kept at 5-8% this would have never happened

Fact dont lie sentimental speeches like yours are biased and has led us to this situation ..

Werent the Pakistani peoples the sentimental type they would have never voted a party that actually bankrupted us in 1998

Stop blaming the current govt for previous wrong doing there is no magical wond to finish all debts and deficits we should look at change and improvement ..if you fail to find that go and get a check from PMLN media cell

I will critize this govt where its due ..what i am pointing out today i pointed in 2016 when fiscal deficit sky rocketted. This was also pointed out by other scholars like ishafaq hassan and IMF WB in their reports

First thanks for calling me sentimental. That describes your homework better than mine. Secondly i referred to the mistakes of previous government along with the current one. Thirdly i am not chest thumping, you are about the performance of this government. And i am talking from perspective of a common man. And i am not claiming here to be doctor of economics, but rather you do.

5 % growth by devaluing rupee at approximately 20 % wow. What about the money that has been written off the market ? what about the purchasing power of a common man that is decreased with this devaluation? Are we only using domestically manufactured products ? why should the common man pay for the blunders of this system who protect few giants. This is a very traditional approach and we are seeing it from 7 decades. So nothing new. Dont give yourself false hopes.

The only solution is transparency and increasing exports. But how will you increase exports when most of the raw materials for running your industry is also imported. The reality is we dont have the any industrial base / capacity which can double and triple your exports in short or long term. Marginally increasing your exports wont work. So stop pretending to be happy on peanuts. You dont produce differentiated high end products. The technology is outdated. Look at your economic policy. Pardon me ! but thats the harsh reality.

How much our export increased in last 10 years go and bother yourself to check the figures, and how much our rupee is devalued in the same time frame ? This government took almost 12 billion dollar loans internationally and i can promise you they are going to break all the previous records. Just wait and watch! Answer me how do you plan to repay it ? as this was done by the previous governments as well.

What ever we are talking about are nominal figures. If you study your economy at real terms the situation is much much worse. Its pretty easy to say that the previous government did not de-valued rupee. The de-valuation of rupee impacts the whole economy. It is mainly done by government to increase exports. But this is a failed strategy as we have seen in the past because you dont have the industrial base through which you can increase exports. Again in future we will see people like you asking , de-value rupee , increase taxes. But dont bother to increase the tax net. There is alot of difference between tax increase and tax net increase. Everybody comes and increase taxes but not the tax net. The current government is even worse in this regard than the previous ones. Clueless!

Yes there is no magic which can write-off the debts. But dont pretend that this government has done something magical. Infact the classical manthra of borrow borrow is still in place. Where is the change?

Stop dreaming! Accept realities. Much worse is coming in the future and unfortunately we will hear the same mantras with manipulated monthly figures from economists like you. Pitty!

Stop telling us what previous government did. You are pretending that this whole country is only ruined by nawaz sharif. Comeon! have some Guts and open your eyes and put the blame on everyone where its due. Every previous government has played its part in destroying the economy of this country. And if you want to check the competency of this leadership just look at KPK. Economically destroyed and indebted .They are only bloody good in manipulation of facts and figures to make people fool. My previous arguments did not target any government. But you are trying to glorify this government which is very far from reality.

Develop your research base , industrial & technological base , increase transparency! else keep dreaming.

 

[ziaulislam]

First thanks for calling me sentimental. That describes your homework better than mine. Secondly i referred to the mistakes of previous government along with the current one. Thirdly i am not chest thumping, you are about the performance of this government. And i am talking from perspective of a common man. And i am not claiming here to be doctor of economics, but rather you do.

5 % growth by devaluing rupee at approximately 20 % wow. What about the money that has been written off the market ? what about the purchasing power of a common man that is decreased with this devaluation? Are we only using domestically manufactured products ? why should the common man pay for the blunders of this system who protect few giants. This is a very traditional approach and we are seeing it from 7 decades. So nothing new. Dont give yourself false hopes.

The only solution is transparency and increasing exports. But how will you increase exports when most of the raw materials for running your industry is also imported. The reality is we dont have the any industrial base / capacity which can double and triple your exports in short or long term. Marginally increasing your exports wont work. So stop pretending to be happy on peanuts. You dont produce differentiated high end products. The technology is outdated. Look at your economic policy. Pardon me ! but thats the harsh reality.

How much our export increased in last 10 years go and bother yourself to check the figures, and how much our rupee is devalued in the same time frame ? This government took almost 12 billion dollar loans internationally and i can promise you they are going to break all the previous records. Just wait and watch! Answer me how do you plan to repay it ? as this was done by the previous governments as well.

What ever we are talking about are nominal figures. If you study your economy at real terms the situation is much much worse. Its pretty easy to say that the previous government did not de-valued rupee. The de-valuation of rupee impacts the whole economy. It is mainly done by government to increase exports. But this is a failed strategy as we have seen in the past because you dont have the industrial base through which you can increase exports. Again in future we will see people like you asking , de-value rupee , increase taxes. But dont bother to increase the tax net. There is alot of difference between tax increase and tax net increase. Everybody comes and increase taxes but not the tax net. The current government is even worse in this regard than the previous ones. Clueless!

Yes there is no magic which can write-off the debts. But dont pretend that this government has done something magical. Infact the classical manthra of borrow borrow is still in place. Where is the change?

Stop dreaming! Accept realities. Much worse is coming in the future and unfortunately we will hear the same mantras with manipulated monthly figures from economists like you. Pitty!

Stop telling us what previous government did. You are pretending that this whole country is only ruined by nawaz sharif. Comeon! have some Guts and open your eyes and put the blame on everyone where its due. Every previous government has played its part in destroying the economy of this country. And if you want to check the competency of this leadership just look at KPK. Economically destroyed and indebted .They are only bloody good in manipulation of facts and figures to make people fool. My previous arguments did not target any government. But you are trying to glorify this government which is very far from reality.

Develop your research base , industrial & technological base , increase transparency! else keep dreaming.

"Real" gdp growth has nothing to do with devaluation ...this shows how poor your knowledge base is...it will be insult for me carry on.

Go back and learn what "real" means
Learn about differences between simple gdp growth and real growth nominal and purchasing power

You have donw good. You do deserve a check from maryium nawaz

 

[Pakistansdefender]

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves to reach 19 billion dollars by end this month: Finance Minister
By
admin
-
March 9, 2019

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach 19 billion dollars by end this month according to Finance Minister Asad Umar.

The finance minister, in meeting with corporate heads in karachi, has said Pakistan is to receive USD 2 Billion from the UAE next week, as confirmed earlierby the State Bank of Pakistan.

Pakistan is also expecting USD 2 Billion from China by the end of this month which will help in keeping the current account deficit in check as well as support the Rupee.



Posted on: 2019-03-09T20:47:00+05:00
26595

I don't know why.
Whenever I read your name, it remind me of someone one Lolx.
And I get this sudden urge to comment about your name.

 

[Gorgin Khan]

"Real" gdp growth has nothing to do with devaluation ...this shows how poor your knowledge base is...it will be insult for me carry on.

Go back and learn what "real" means
Learn about differences between simple gdp growth and real growth nominal and purchasing power

What is simple gdp ? You mean Nominal GDP

Real gdp has alot to do with inflation and currency devaluation.

You are clueless about economics. I can comprehend that from the terminologies you used.

Best of luck to you with your economics. Keep working and find the answers. No need to feel insulted when you are clueless.

Happy searching

 

[ziaulislam]

What is simple gdp ? You mean Nominal GDP

Real gdp has alot to do with inflation and currency devaluation.

You are clueless about economics. I can comprehend that from the terminologies you used.

Best of luck to you with your economics. Keep working and find the answers. No need to feel insulted when you are clueless.

Happy searching

Nominal GDP= adjusting for dollar value
Purchasing power= actual value
GDP growth= inflation value + real value growth+ import index + export index

Thus your assessment that devaluation caused drop or increase in real gdp is ludicrous and completely absurd..as real gdp is real growth

This should be known by fifth grade boy..so i hope i am not talking to a child

I still surprised how can someone miss the word real

 

[Fahad Khan 2]

19 Billion??? Last time I heard was hardly 8 Billion US $.

Maang maang Kar katora bhar Diya ha [emoji23]

 

[GumNaam]

in shaa Allah..

 

[ziaulislam]

Maang maang Kar katora bhar Diya ha [emoji23]

They counting 7b worth of private reserves

 

[volatile]

So will be debt figures crossing 100 Billion pluss plusss

 

[ziaulislam]

So will be debt figures crossing 100 Billion pluss plusss

Debt will always increase its immaterial
The question is ability to pay debt

For example usa has more debt than all the world combined..china has more debt than all the world combined (excluding usa). But it doesnt matter

The things to measure debt is debt to GDP ratio and prime deficit

Keep an eye on these too
They doubled in last 10 years crossing the mishrraf era law which forces govt to borrow no more than 60% of gdp when musgi left it was at 55% down from 85% in nawaz era..now its back to 77%

Ishaq dar changed the law to exculde govt grantee debt to artificially show it at 63%

These figures are available for general public under sbp.com.pk you can look past figures as well

And cant be faked as if you fake them you are like defaulting meaning noone will lend you

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10156434651004527

 

[VCheng]

The real surge in inflation will come only after the deal with IMF - if any - is finalized:




DAWN.COM
TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 11, 2019

• Inflation in Pakistan: multiple causes
• Nadir CheemaUpdated March 11, 2019
  
  
  The writer teaches economics at SOAS University of London, and is a senior research fellow at Bloomsbury Pakistan.
  
  
  
  INFLATION is once again the news, having risen further to 8.2 per cent in February. That inflation comes with costs is not news. For the poor, a rise in the prices of essential items (if it exceeds income growth) can be a death knell, both literally (for subsistence households), and indirectly, due to the inability to afford needed medical and health spending. It can also force parents to choose between whether their child goes to school or works.
  
  Importantly, inflation is a tax that erodes the purchasing power of the currency. Thus, the poor, who hold much of their assets in cash, bear this tax disproportionately, while the rich can partly evade it by holding assets that are return-bearing (like bonds), increasing in value (like land), or in a stable foreign currency (like the dollar).
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Then, by raising uncertainty about the future, inflation discourages investment in projects that raise the economy’s productive capacity. Businesses start focusing on projects with short-term returns, or transactions in foreign currency.
  
  Insofar as inflation erodes trust in the national currency as a store of value, it also erodes the associated national pride, and this is felt by all citizens. In Pakistan, this erosion has been significant: by the mid-1970s, the Pakistani rupee had lost half of the purchasing power it had in 1956; and by the early 1990s, it had lost 90pc. Large as it seems, it is a much less dramatic decline than witnessed by Turkey, Egypt and Morocco. And a comparison starting in 1980, and excluding rich countries, suggests Pakistan has done no worse than its South Asian neighbours.
  
  Although inflation has picked up in the past few months, its level is still low by recent historical standards.
  
  Next, we ask if all inflation is bad and whether it should be zero. The answer is no. Most economists today only consider inflation above high single digits to be bad. Moderate inflation, in the 3pc to 6pc range is generally considered desirable, and inflation below 3pc can actually be risky. Why? Moderate inflation can serve as a useful signal of demand pressures in normal times, and also lends flexibility to an economy adjusting to adverse shocks: if inflation is near zero, disinflation must involve nominal wage cuts, which are politically difficult.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  For much of Pakistan’s history, inflation has been moderate, with two noticeable exceptions: 1972-76 and 2008-14, both of which coincided with record-high international oil prices; and followed/ accompanied public or private spending booms. Although inflation has picked up in the past few months and is now in the upper single digits, its level is still low by recent historical standards.
  
  Given this, the key policy issues for inflation management are: avoiding the big spikes (that take inflation above the desirable range); and ensuring that the poor are well protected against inflation. On the former, we note that there are several (not one) drivers of inflation:
  
  The first is money growth. For a fixed supply of goods, more money in circulation means higher prices. Monetary loosening can happen due to structural factors like fiscal dominance, where the central bank is forced to print money to finance fiscal deficits; and/ or cyclical surges in capital inflows, and the accompanying credit/ real estate booms.
  
  Fiscal dominance has been a perennial problem in Pakistan, as evinced by the strong co-movement of inflation and State Bank credit to government over the past 15 years (only Egypt is worse in this regard). Two things can help fix it: a rise in the tax-to-GDP ratio so that there is a buffer in public finances; and greater de jure and de facto independence for the State Bank (progression on this has been quite uneven).
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Capital inflow booms have been rarer but equally impactful, eg the mid-2000s real estate boom financed by Gulf money, which ended badly for the economy. With the government trying to lure investments from China and the Gulf, care would have to be taken to ensure the resource inflow expands the productive capacity of the economy, and does not just fuel prices.
  
  The second is factors that affect import prices. As a heavily oil-reliant importer, and with no real foreign exchange or fiscal buffers to limit pass-through to domestic prices, a part of Pakistani inflation is simply determined by global oil price movements. At one level, a government neither deserves credit for lower inflation when oil prices fall (as they did from 2014-16), nor the blame for higher inflation when they rise (as they sporadically did in 2017-18). However, to be constantly at the mercy of a known exogenous quantity is not pardonable: Pakistan must make a concerted effort to diversify its energy reliance away from oil and towards hydro, solar, nuclear, clean coal.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Currency depreciations affect inflation similarly, except that they raise the domestic price of all imported goods, not just oil. Depreciations are needed to fix balance-of-payments problems which can arise due to unsustainable spending booms (as in the aftermath of the mid-2000s, as well as 2014-17); adverse terms of trade shocks (like oil price rises); or weakening global demand for Pakistani goods and services (as occurred during the 2008 global financial crisis). Governments cannot do much to avoid depreciations when they are needed, but they can make them less dramatic by allowing a more flexible exchange rate regime.
  
  The third is domestic supply shocks. Floods, droughts, crop pests can all raise the price of domestic goods, and often goods that are essential to the poor. While governments cannot wish these shocks away, it can and must invest in resilience mechanisms, as these are likely to benefit the poor most.
  
  In sum, inflation is a multi-source problem. It has been high, but manageable, in Pakistan. But because it affects the poor disproportionately, the government must continue to take structural measures to keep it low, and to compensate the poor via lifeline tariffs and cash transfers for any temporary surges.
  
  The writer teaches economics at SOAS University of London, and is a senior research fellow at Bloomsbury Pakistan.
  
  Nadir.Cheema@oriel.oxon.org
  
  @NadirCheema
  
  Published in Dawn, March 11th, 2019