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Pakistan US relations post 2014

This statement is an important one. A better strategy would be for the Pakistani security establishment to align itself with US interests if it can to avoid a direct conflict with a much stronger adversary.

Do you see that happening?

The US unfortunately acts as a spoiler to the region, as witnessed by their opposition to the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, as well as countless other examples (even pertaining to Pakistan-India issues).

The word spoiler is a very important one, & I hope you think over it for a bit. While China, India, Pakistan have issues based on genuine national integrity/security in the region, the US does not have these, only geopolitical strategic ones. Meaning the US can always 'flee' from the region with little consequence, while planting its 'seeds' to do its bidding in the region.
 
The Pakistan "security establishment" (the Pakistan Army, ISI) is sometimes thought of as a Frankenstein monster in the US. The US is sometimes thought of as the great Satan in Pakistan & the rest of the Muslim world. Both thoughts are very far off from the truth. The truth is that when the US Pakistan interests were aligned in the 80s, the Pakistani security establishment worked very well with the US with very little problems. Today however, the US's geopolitical/strategic interests are not aligned with Pakistan's national integrity/security interests. Which is why there is "friction" between the US & Pakistan's security establishment.

US troops might have left Iraq, but a country that did not suffer from sectarian violence pre-2003 & did not have any Al-Qaeda has become a hotbed for Al-Qaeda extremism today. The rise of the AQAP in the Middle East, the Al-Shabaab & AQIM in North Africa leaves a mark, & a signal for future foreign intervention (for influence) in the region. Likewise, the US is trying to plant its seeds in Afghanistan, to do its bidding once it withdraws it troops, regardless of whether that is the Taliban, Karzai or anyone else. This is where the US is facing difficulties, as it is facing a formidable adversary in the form of the Pakistani security establishment.

US Senate & Congressional hearings openly discuss "empowering" the Pakistani civil society as a counterweight to the Pakistan security establishment, to wane its influence. Dubious leaks, dubious reports from unnamed officials, "military-civil society clashes" show that the US will go out of its way, & will take all the painful & time-consuming strategies that can help it achieve its goals: to weaken the Pakistani security establishment. There is a popular notion in the West that the Pakistani security establishment is the reason for the weak civilian government. They think that empowering the civil society can help weaken the security establishment. Time will tell whether that is the case or not.

There is an interesting mindset in the West that the Pakistani security establishment is "inherently evil", is the bane for the region, does not support peace, & the reason for all the troubles in the region. The Pakistan security establishment is concerned with safeguarding Pakistan's national integrity/security interests, & every other thing is secondary. The fact of the matter is that the Pakistani security establishment will support anyone, will do anything to safeguard its national integrity/security interests. Pakistan's concerns with Afghanistan or India are in relation with its national integrity/security interests. Pakistan, unlike the US is not a nation that aspires strategic geopolitical interests/influence, everything it does is in relation to its national integrity/security interests. The Pakistan security establishment will not favor anyone that goes against them.

Some people think that the Pakistani security establishment is fixated on India. Cross border violence into J&K has gone to an all-time low; the insurgency from the Maoists & in the North East have taken the front seat, & Kashmir has taken the back seat. Musharraf, & his successor have both showed willingness to resolve Kashmir amicably with India, the major thorn in Pakistan-India relations. If that is amicably resolved, the US will find it very hard to play as a spoiler in the region (to advance its geopolitical strategic interests). The Pakistan "resorting" to China (moving away from the US) helps the US use India as a counterweight to China. The interesting thing to note here is that while China, India, Pakistan have genuine national integrity/security issues/interests with one another; the US mainly has its geopolitical strategic influence interests (not any real national integrity/security issues) in the region. Which is why it is acting as a spoiler in the region.

Contrary to the belief of some people, Pakistan will not be left isolated by the US post 2014. Pakistan's geographical realities show it is too strategically & geopolitically important for the US to isolate. The isolation of the Pakistani nation will only make them take China's cradle, & will reduce the US's geopolitical strategic influence in the region. Hence, the US strategy is not to isolate Pakistan post 2014, but to isolate the elements of Pakistan (Pakistan security establishment) that are acting as obstacles to the US advancing its geopolitical strategic interests in the region. Pakistan's diverse ethnic makeup/realities show that Pakistan will not fall under the control of extremists either.

@Bilal...This is really an exellent article. You really write very well....You have really mentioned a valid point...But going a little bit forward to this theory...Now it is understandable that China Pakistan alliance is definitely going to be a strong force in Asia in next 50 years..The reason is very obvious...China will replace US what has happned in last decade with Pakistan...China is defly going to be a powerful nation who has definite intrest in making a stake in Asia. So pakistan rather than sleeping with your peerceived enemey USA...Why don't China and Pakistan try to provide a genuine space to India in China Pakistan alliance in broder context and make a strong Asian Force consisting of China India and Pakistan??? I know this sounds ridiculous right now...But my question is ...China and Pakistan is really trying to counter US in Asia..their task will be simplified if India is in their group.....And major beinificiary for India to be included in China Pakistan and may be Russia alliance with India ...will be Pakistan itself....and of course India too....Pakistan can play a big role in bringing China and India to one kind of close to each other....

This is a just my personal opinion...
 
The US unfortunately acts as a spoiler to the region, as witnessed by their opposition to the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, as well as countless other examples (even pertaining to Pakistan-India issues).

The word spoiler is a very important one, & I hope you think over it for a bit. While China, India, Pakistan have issues based on genuine national integrity/security in the region, the US does not have these, only geopolitical strategic ones. Meaning the US can always 'flee' from the region with little consequence, while planting its 'seeds' to do its bidding in the region.

The philosophy of the USA is "if we cant have it then no ones having it" has become apparent. I wish our region realized unted we as a global region are power and united we rule - divided we let the spoiler in
 
The US unfortunately acts as a spoiler to the region, as witnessed by their opposition to the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, as well as countless other examples (even pertaining to Pakistan-India issues).

The word spoiler is a very important one, & I hope you think over it for a bit. .................

I noted that word, but as a global superpower, USA can, and will, project its power to further its national interests everywhere it possibly can, including South Asia. It would be naive to think otherwise.
 
I noted that word, but as a global superpower, USA can, and will, project its power to further its national interests everywhere it possibly can, including South Asia. It would be naive to think otherwise.

And Pakistan will do everything to ensure it's security, Why USZ is too naive to think otherwise
 
And Pakistan will do everything to ensure it's security, Why USZ is too naive to think otherwise

Of course Pakistan can, and should do whatever it can. USA surely factors those efforts into its calculus to several moves in advance for all possible combinations of events and responses.
 
I noted that word, but as a global superpower, USA can, and will, project its power to further its national interests everywhere it possibly can, including South Asia. It would be naive to think otherwise.

Of course I understand that, which is why I mentioned a fundamental "flaw" at the start of my piece these sentences:

"The truth is that when the US Pakistan interests were aligned in the 80s, the Pakistani security establishment worked very well with the US with very little problems. Today however, the US's geopolitical/strategic interests are not aligned with Pakistan's national integrity/security interests. Which is why there is "friction" between the US & Pakistan's security establishment."

This is the reason why the US Senate & Congressional hearings openly discuss "empowering" the Pakistani civil society as a counterweight to the Pakistan security establishment. And the Pakistani security establishment will resist all US overtures that impact the national integrity/security interests of Pakistan. The fundamental flaw is that the US's geopolitical/strategic interests are not aligned with Pakistan's national integrity/security interests. That is the root cause of all the problems.
 
Of course I understand that, which is why I mentioned a fundamental "flaw" at the start of my piece these sentences:.......................The fundamental flaw is that the US's geopolitical/strategic interests are not aligned with Pakistan's national integrity/security interests. Period.

Well, doesn't that leave Pakistan in quite the quandary, doesn't it? Unless, it uses its smarts diplomatically to ensure a realignment quickly, before it is too late.
 
Well, doesn't that leave Pakistan in quite the quandary, doesn't it? Unless, it uses its smarts diplomatically to ensure a realignment quickly, before it is too late.

I don't think things can get any worse than they have been from a security point of view, as evidenced by the yearly statistics of violence from terrorism, which has seen a huge downward trend, & have also been mainly confined to the Western border regions.

In other words, an endgame in Afghanistan will also result in an endgame in Pakistan. The situation in Pakistan will reach an "equilibrium" with the Afghan endgame, the way it was pre-2001. Right now, what I see is a lot of "cleaning of the air". Pakistan has cleared up the ambiguity in their policies, & will formulate its own/independent strategies rather than be influenced by the US. This is only good for Pakistan in the long-run, as that will surely enhance its relationships in the neighborhood.
 
............... Pakistan has cleared up the ambiguity in their policies, & will formulate its own/independent strategies rather than be influenced by the US. ..............

I would submit that NEITHER of those two things have happened yet, unless you can present arguments to the contrary for both.
 
I would submit that NEITHER of those two things have happened yet, unless you can present arguments to the contrary for both.

It has cleared up the ambiguity in its policies. While the US wants Pakistan "to do more", Pakistan is fighting its own battles but does not want to burn bridges inside Afghanistan, & it wants a quick but lasting endgame resolution to Afghanistan that does not destabilize Pakistan, which may or may not be to the liking of the US. An endgame in Afghanistan will also result in an endgame in Pakistan. The situation in Pakistan will reach an "equilibrium" with the Afghan endgame, the way it was pre-2001.
 
How exactly? Has the PNSC come up with the final 36 recommendations or not? Where has the parliament changed anything as of yet?

I was talking about the Pakistan security establishment (ISI, Pakistan Army) formulating its own policies with respect to the Afghan end game.
 
I was talking about the Pakistan security establishment (ISI, Pakistan Army) formulating its own policies with respect to the Afghan end game.

But I thought the the whole new deal was that PNSC would include military input to formulate a national policy. What you are describing is still the status quo!

The key problem has been, and will be, this ISI "formulating its own policies" as a state within a state.
 
Please look at the topic of the thread again. It is not about India, it is about Pakistan-US relations and its dynamics. It'd be great if you could stick to the topic & the subject of the thread.


Worry not, for them Universe revolves around India its something like a dark matter.
 

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