Pakistan Stock Exchange becomes top performing stock exchange of the World

[RangeMaster]

Oops bad day for patwaris. PSX was one of the few things they were counting on. Next is inflation and growth rate. Both are expected to recover after 2020.

11 Nov, 2019

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan stock market continued it’s bullish rally on the eighth consecutive day on Monday.

The KSE-100 index maintained an uptrend from the moment trading began as investors enjoyed IMF’s satisfaction over Pakistan’s economic trajectory and resumed buying activity.

At the end of the day, the benchmark index gained 824 points (or 2.29%) to close at 36,803 points.

The exchange traded in the green zone throughout the trading session making a high of 839 points. Banks, Oil, power & OMC sectors pulled the overall sentiment of the market upward where HBL (+2.27%) closed on the back of IMF comments on Pakistan economy & capping its inflation expectation from 13% to 11.8%, said Usama Bin Saeed, who is a Senior Manager Institutional Sales at Multiline Securities.

He further stated that a rally in the Power sector was also witnessed on the back of Rs. 200 billion government Sukuk easing Oil, IPP & OMC receivables. UBL (3.94%), OGDC (3.09%), PPL (2.19%), POL (3.11%), HUBC (5%) PSO (5%) were the major gainers of the aforementioned sector.

Pakistan’s stock market has rallied back strongly in a few months, becoming the best performer globally since the low in August. It has been the 6th best performing market since July this year and since October 1st, it has posted a return of 14.1% all alone.

Also

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday estimated that Pakistan’s economy would slow down to 2.4 per cent in 2020 and pick up quickly after that as stabilisation measures bear result.


https://timesofislamabad.com/11-Nov...es-top-performing-stock-exchange-of-the-world

https://www.dawn.com/news/1511074

https://www.psx.com.pk/

 

[ARMalik]

I am all for the stock market but this headline is very, very misleading. In reality the managed funds in Pakistan have been making a LOSS in the stock market. And a few rallies here and there is not going to change this.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Financial markets in Pakistan are probably weak right now, as are Pakistani corporates.

Saying that stocks performed well doesn’t mean much esp when markets will rally if PKR devaluation means cheaper stocks in dollar terms. Same thing happened with FTSE100 post Brexit vote.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Vultures may wish all year long, but the elephants won’t just drop dead.....

 

[Clutch]

 

[ps3linux]

Oops bad day for patwaris. PSX was one of the few things they were counting on. Next is inflation and growth rate. Both are expected to recover after 2020.

Pakistan’s stock market has rallied back strongly in a few months, becoming the best performer globally since the low in August. It has been the 6th best performing market since July this year and since October 1st, it has posted a return of 14.1% all alone.

Also

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday estimated that Pakistan’s economy would slow down to 2.4 per cent in 2020 and pick up quickly after that as stabilisation measures bear result.

When it comes to news most of them are taken from press release of companies in this case I think it was from one brokerage firm. No real insight.

There are few things at play when it comes to PSX

firstly when the market was going south it tested the 30k barrier but that was it, at that level P/E came down to something like 5.6x, but the best of it all was P/B which was under 0.9, meaning if a company's share actual worth was Rs.10 it was trading at Rs.9.

The P/B was for the whole index whereas there were shares of very stable/strong companies having a double digit dividend yield and they were trading at 0.4 P/B, meaning if a company's actual assets's worth (equity worth) or share worth was Rs.10 it was being traded at Rs.4 which made these companies extra ordinary attractive.

I am in the financial sector and I know first hand foreign fund managers have been visiting Pakistan like a pack of locust since October, every one in the line of business understand that there is so much opportunity to make money out of this market, my family's portfolio in Pakistan is now 97% into equities till 31st December 2021 at-least.

Secondly it is the same market as the one last year but what has changed is Pakistan going to IMF, I do not endorse their economic model personally of high interest and inflation, but knowing Pakistan and its people we are good at being driven rather than learning discipline ourselves, financial discipline is no different for us. When IMF lends money to any country it lays down a very strict recipe for economic management and financial discipline, once any country signs it it gives a message to the international community (the business) that now this country will exercise financial discipline and thus its capacity to meet international financial obligations will improve.

When this Govt took over we were at the verge of financial collapse, our import cover was around 6-8 week, and Asad Umer was not the right man to manage economy primarily due to his arrogance and Jack-of-all attitude, and now due to people like Raza Baqir and Abdul Rehman Warraich and many other economy is in a much better position, imports have been curtailed, exports at-least volumes and some value have improved, CAD is now in a manageable position, all the upcoming forex liabilities in the next three years are now matched with forex inflows.

Improvement of economic indicators has led to a negative yield on portfolio having forex and thus the currency dealers have sold $2.1 billion to $2.5 (dont remember exactly was it 2.1 or 2.5) the currency dealers and speculators know they are in deep shi*t that's why the sales of dollars to SBP has increased, during the last two governments this trend was always the reverse.

PSX was in a continuous bear market since may 2017, but on a calendar year basis (CYTD 2019) all indices (except all shares which is -5.9% and KMI30 which is -1%) are positive. However, I would still not cherish and wait till March 2020.

Yield on Govt paper is now moving toward downward curve, means interest rates are expected to decrease, since interest rates have an inverse relationship with equity market so the PSX is going to improve further. Inflation is going to peak out in January or March depending upon the views, and then the interest rates are going down, which mean business expansion, economic activity improvement in GDP , jobs creation and a lot more. But the real movement I see is in the second half of 2021. Not everything is all rosy but we are in the right direction.

I am all for the stock market but this headline is very, very misleading. In reality the managed funds in Pakistan have been making a LOSS in the stock market. And a few rallies here and there is not going to change this.

Bhai, funds/fund managers in Pakistan are not expected to have a positive alpha primarily due to regulatory framework, width and breadth of financial system and expertise/risk taking ability.

It all depends on your financial advisor, how he could get value out of this market, remember unlike western markets front end charges can be easily waived off by fund management companies in Pakistan .

 

[Yaseen1]

i think it was deliberately dropped by those business men which have influence on govt and now after they had bought stocks at low price they have raised stock market so they sell shares in profit ,this cycle will continue during tenure of this govt as jhangir tareen was known for manipulation of stock market in musharaf tenure and this is one of reason why he was disqualified by sc.

 

[blueazure]

When it comes to news most of them are taken from press release of companies in this case I think it was from one brokerage firm. No real insight.

There are few things at play when it comes to PSX

firstly when the market was going south it tested the 30k barrier but that was it, at that level P/E came down to something like 5.6x, but the best of it all was P/B which was under 0.9, meaning if a company's share actual worth was Rs.10 it was trading at Rs.9.

sir jee all blue chips have posted decreased YoY losses to the tune of almost 30 percent . DGKC ne to plant hi band kar diya hai punjab mei

this feels like a bull trap to me . at best

recovery by 2020 end .... then its upwards IA

 

[ps3linux]

sir jee all blue chips have posted decreased YoY losses to the tune of almost 30 percent . DGKC ne to plant hi band kar diya hai punjab mei

this feels like a bull trap to me . at best

recovery by 2020 end .... then its upwards IA

Sir jee I am not a "dehari baaz" like the ones you often see on the trading floors of brokerage firms or locked in front of their online terminals, I always take an approach based upon fundamentals and I am a firm believer fundamentals are moving in the right direction. I have a two years horizon which is H2 2021 (by 31st December) and besides YoY in fact is OK as a statistical measure but at the end of the day as an investors/analyst I have to factor in lot of other things like P/B and future outlook.

Not all blue chips, DG has other issues and not all business related, Cement had its problem due to rate cuts and non-agreement on price fixing North vs South, much has been resolved. Met three largest groups this week. With the price problem solved, one tranche release of PSDP running into hundreds of billions, indication into resolving real estate sector demands and work initiation on mega projects the outlook and very good.

Autos I am happy for their f*ed up situation, OMC/OEC are doing alright, banks are having good time as well, pharma chemicals will always be good with the decrease in exchange rate in favor of PKR their profitability is expected to improve.

Textile exports in terms of volumes have increased significantly, most of the exporters are pre booked on all their production capacity till Sep 2020. Dividend yield are in single digit but with the expected decrease in policy rates (May be Jan or March even Nov 19 is possible) this will reverse.

PSX volumes are extremely good, futures trading is less than 1/3 of total volumes so nutshell on a two years basis tons of money to be made.

 

[Baby Leone]

i am not PMLN supporter but when Nawaz Sharif became PM stock exchanges performed even better, and during that time IK and PTI made fun of it and said what stock exchanges performance has to do with common people and the same PTI is celebrating half of that performance achieved by PMLN.