Pakistan economy out look : USD to hit 350 , inflation 25% and growth less than 2%

[Bilal.]

Explain to me which part of the below was legal.

1. Bringing a vote of no confidence into motion on the behest of a foreign power?
2. Releasing convicts from Prison to allow them to vote in parliament? (he has since been returned to prison ironically)
3. Cancelling the arrest warrants of murder suspects to allow them to vote in parliament?
4. Restoring a dissolved government, so that a vote of no confidence could be passed, rather than having an election?

The disregard for law has continued. The current sitting President of Pakistan has confirmed he has not signed certain documents on which his signature has been forged.

You do realise these things have happened?

The guy has zero understanding of the dynamics of Pakistan but keeps poking his nose everywhere. Everyone knows how legal the process of VNOC was with open horse trading and bribing and coercion but this guy will keep commenting and BSing.

 

[Olympus81]

You need to see his previous statements. I dont make story here, for what ? I just want stronger Pakistan and not let the only Muslim nuclear power lead to the mess we see Today or even making its own destruction with another war with India.

Feel free if IK mentioned thousands of genocide. If he has, he is wrong to make that statement. He is even wrong to use a genocide word.

 

[Maula Jatt]

current administration is no different from dar... its the same school of thought!

No it's not - dars biggest issue was playing with currency/ general shady behavior not playing by the rules

In comparison they're not that bad

Explain to me which part of the below was legal.

1. Bringing a vote of no confidence into motion on the behest of a foreign power?

Foreign power my a** - army themselves did it, bajwa was planning for it all the way back in 2020s
Foreign angle is exaddurated
They're the real culprits - I don't even know if you're allowed to say this on this forum anymore

If it's an issue mods can take it down - I won't mind

2. Releasing convicts from Prison to allow them to vote in parliament? (he has since been returned to prison ironically)
3. Cancelling the arrest warrants of murder suspects to allow them to vote in parliament?
4. Restoring a dissolved government, so that a vote of no confidence could be passed, rather than having an election?

The disregard for law has continued. The current sitting President of Pakistan has confirmed he has not signed certain documents on which his signature has been forged.

You do realise these things have happened?

Of course it was illegal just like everyother vonc, election that ever happened in Pakistan- army had a role to play

I don't know where am I denying that

 

[Gorgin Khan]

Incorrect

Imran’s policies was correct from a long term perspective and would achieve a organic growth

Now with current junta set up here is what will happen

No growth , high inflation and near zero investment

Why ?

You have proven to the whole planet you are a banana republic, which means no long term investor will come here , and forget about over seas Pakistanis investment that have utmost hate for your kind.

So with no new investment productive capacity and wealth creation will not occur. Hence goods and services will continue become more expensive.

Capable Pakistanis will continue to leave while thirds rate workers will remain which means Pakistanis will never be able produce quality good and services which the world demands. Hence your exports will remain low as ever. This imports will be higher than exports thus IMF zindabad…

Debt will continue to increase because the main sector of agriculture, trade, real estate (DHA) will not be taxed due to patronage the junta gives to maintain power. This patronage extends military officers also. It estimated that $1.5b of tax revenue from Iranian oil smuggling happens …

now use your brain tell us who sits on the Iranian border

A) PTI tiger force

B) Army / FC

C) imran khan




In your head sure




PTI supporters are well educated and have a 360 view of the situation. Unlike you people who watch geo and likes and have no clue what is going on.


Delusion arises from lack of knowledge combined with inability grasp reality .. some thing people like you suffer

There was no policy from youthias leader.... Now they are trying to wash his shit...... Isnt he rotting in jail lolx..... You are trying to keep him alive while PTI is dead lolx

 

[karmaa]

View attachment 1033232

The question is why isn’t Geo TV and likes covering this ? …

Why isn’t fool’s nightmare and that fishy side kick talking about these real issues ..?

Why are PDM and their sponsors only interested where Imran Khan’s dick has been ?


Why ?

Pakistans problems can be solved by India in one year time , dollar will come to 100. Only on one condition if Pakistan gets rid of all non state actors operating in name of kashmir jihad, accept present border as international border. Start trade with India .

 

[Maula Jatt]

Thats ridiculous. When Imran Khan was in power the economy was doing fine - in fact it was flourishing. It tanked AFTER he was removed.

He steered the economy through covid and had 6% growth cooking.

I can grow at 8% with 150 billion imports to achieve record high exports

But That'll bankrupt Pakistan and a lot of other developing countries - just looking at one or two things to judge is not right
Even pmln supporters have same arguments fgs
We grew the economy (yes but how?)
Infrastructure (how'll we pay for this - he'll pull out elaborate ponzi schemes to explain)

Very high CAD with record high exports of 30 billion plus alongside 85$ billion imports - of course it was going to end up like it ended up eventually

We don't have a robust IT industry as cushion to protect us from such defecits only remittances
So it becomes unsustainable for us until we grow our IT, mining, tourism sectors (as in straight $ with little to no imports thus earning you the $ so you sustainably run those import/exports defecits in order to grow your actual industry but going straight in would result in bankruptcy)

Inflation was on the rise and to combat that he had started subsidising fuel, for a LIMITED time, it was a costed, planned step. The "new" govt came in place, refused to take away the subsidy after the money allocated for it ran out and then worked further to run the economy into the ground.

Stop being a faujeet, they're not going to kidnap you if you don't praise them 24/7.

I'm anything but a faujeet, I just don't like pti supporters anymore (not pti)- they need to come back to their senses

It might have been caused in part by external environments, but the govt is the one responsible for steering the country through those conditions. Khan managed to get us through COVID-19 and was not phased by it, these duffers couldn't manage something simpler than that. I agree our economic fundementals are wrong - but during the Khan govt, the policies were both focused on protecting the most vulnerable in society and encouraging growth - the people that replaced him only lined their own pockets.

 

[SD 10]

No it's not - dars biggest issue was playing with currency/ general shady behavior not playing by the rules

In comparison they're not that bad

listened to care taker finance minister and her ideas are quite alike to that of dar... the reason she is not doing currency manipulation is only because of IMF pressure!

 

[313ghazi]

I can grow at 8% with 150 billion imports to achieve record high exports

But That'll bankrupt Pakistan and a lot of other developing countries - just looking at one or two things to judge is not right
Even pmln supporters have same arguments fgs
We grew the economy (yes but how?)
Infrastructure (how'll we pay for this - he'll pull out elaborate ponzi schemes to explain)

Very high CAD with record high exports of 30 billion plus alongside 85$ billion imports - of course it was going to end up like it ended up eventually

We don't have a robust IT industry as cushion to protect us from such defecits only remittances
So it becomes unsustainable for us until we grow our IT, mining, tourism sectors (as in straight $ with little to no imports thus earning you the $ so you sustainably run those import/exports defecits in order to grow your actual industry but going straight in would result in bankruptcy)


I'm anything but a faujeet, I just don't like pti supporters anymore (not pti)- they need to come back to their senses

when you dont manufacture anything in house, you need to import raw goods, add value to them and then export. That CAD is not a problem if the cost of imports is being balanced out by the exports. It all depends on what the imports are, what you are paying for. If you're importing luxury cars and consumer goods for retail, then it's harmful, if your importing plastic to make stuff with and reexport, it's not. if your importing machinery to setup industries with, it's not a bad thing.

 

[nahtanbob]

This has been discussed to death.

Under PTI Pakistan achieved 5%+ GDP growth, forex $20bn+, Exports $32bn+, Imports $70bn+, inflation 10%.

Check the GDP growth figures, export growth figures of Pakistan and its neighbors during the time.

The top imports of Pakistan are Refined Petroleum ($6.58B), Petroleum Gas ($6.41B), Crude Petroleum ($3.53B), Palm Oil($3.36B), and Vaccines, blood, antisera, toxins and cultures($3.06B).

Remember Covid and Commodity super cycle.

What were you guys expecting? 10% GDP growth at 0 inflation and 0 trade deficit?

And see what has happened since the past 20 months despite low commodity prices, Covid.

Please think dispassionately.

In 2020 and 2021 Pakistan had its debt rescheduled. A lot of poor countries got the debt rescheduling. It is due to covid.

 

[Puffin]

Actually Pakistan's GDP is shrinking not growing

DP figure under PDM rule ‘turns negative’​

Khaleeq Kiani Published November 29, 2023 Updated a day ago
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 0.17 per cent rather than growing by 0.29pc during FY23 under the PDM-led coalition government while GDP growth in FY22 under the PTI regime was slightly higher than previously estimated.
This was officially confirmed on Tuesday by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) which also approved the first quarter (July-September 2023-24) GDP growth rate at 2.13pc. The government for the first time has released economic performance on a quarterly basis under a strict deadline of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
All three results — revised for FY22 and FY23 and Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) for Q1FY24 — are based on the 2015-16 base year.
The government was obligated under the structural benchmark of IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) that “PBS will compile and disseminate the first-quarter estimates for 2023-24 and the revised annual estimates for 2022-23 by the end of November”. As such, the NAC concluded that the national economy witnessed recovery in Q1FY24 by posting a growth of 2.13pc as compared to 0.96pc in Q1FY23.
The NAC also approved the final growth rate of GDP for 2021-22 at 6.17pc, slightly higher than previous estimates of 6.1pc approved in May this year. This was because of fractional improvement in agriculture sector growth from 4.27pc to 4.28pc, and relatively better results in both industrial and services sectors.
Industrial activities, according to final results, improved from 6.83pc to 6.95pc while services from 6.59pc to 6.66pc. As such, mining and quarrying (from -7pc to -6.58pc) and electricity, gas and water supply (from 3.14pc to 3.8pc) led to improved growth in industrial activities. The improvement in services is mainly due to Information and Communication (from 16.32pc to 17.96pc) and education from 5.66pc to 5.85pc.



On the other hand, the revised GDP growth rate for 2022-23 was put at -0.17pc, which was provisionally estimated at 0.29pc in May. In the revised estimates, agriculture showed significant improvement from 1.55pc to 2.25pc.
Despite the reduction in the production of sugarcane (from 91.1 to 88 million tonnes), important crops output was revised upward from -3.20pc to 0.42pc due to an increase in production of wheat (from 27.6 to 28.2m tonnes) and maize (from 10.2 to 11m tonnes).
The other crops also declined from 0.23pc to -0.93pc due to a decline in production of green fodder (from 192.2 to 190m tonnes), fruits (-5.6pc) and oilseeds (-9.7pc). Forestry, on the other hand, improved in revised estimates from 3.93pc to 14.2pc due to higher production reported by Punjab.
However, in FY23, despite improvement in electricity, gas and water supply (from 6.03pc to 9.84pc), the industrial sector growth declined from negative 2.94pc to -3.76pc in the revised estimates due to decrease in Large-Scale Manufacturing (from -7.98pc to -9.87pc) and construction (from negative 5.53pc to -9.16pc).
The services sector growth in FY23 also declined from 0.86pc to 0.07pc due to transportation and storage (from 4.73pc to 3.27pc), information & communication (from 6.93pc to -2.55pc), finance & insurance (from -3.82pc to -8.09pc), public administration and social security ( from -7.76pc to -8.99pc), and education (from 10.44pc to 9.94pc). In the revised estimates, wholesale and retail trade slightly improved from -4.46pc to -4.01pc whereas human health and social work improved from 8.49pc to 10.57pc.
The NAC also approved the industry-wise methodology of compiling the quarterly GDP as well as a series of quarterly growth rates of GDP for various industries from the first quarter of 2016-17 to the first quarter 2023 by taking 2015-16 as the base year. This exercise was supported by local and international think tanks and multilateral institutions.
Talking about Q1FY24, the NAC estimated growth rate at 2.13pc as compared to the same period of FY23. This was supported by 5.06pc growth in agriculture, 2.48pc in industry and 0.82pc in services.
Published in Dawn, November 29th, 2023
Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

DAWN

 

[Dalit]

LOL The Pakistani media has stopped covering economic news.

There was no policy from youthias leader.... Now they are trying to wash his shit...... Isnt he rotting in jail lolx..... You are trying to keep him alive while PTI is dead lolx

Looks like whisky turned Pakistan into an economic paradise.

 

[CrazyZ]

They're trying to clean up the mess left behind by NS, Musharaf, Imran Khan

What is largely missed in the current political discourse is that all factions...PTI, PML, PPP have had horrible energy policies over the last 40 years. No government had any hedge against high oil prices with some sort of reserve. Anytime oil goes over $100 ppb....Pakistan heads to the IMF since forex will be depleted. Disco's have never been reformed....circular debt remains a chronic problem. As a result energy prices are the largest portion of inflation today since its the top import and PKR is losing value.

Green shoots are developing with increase in domestic coal, hydro and nuclear....but it will take time to have any impacts. The economy is actually in recovery phase and doing better currently.

Imran’s policies was correct from a long term perspective and would achieve a organic growth

Imran had bad energy policies. He made a drama of LNG deals......instead of signing long term fixed rate deals (that Qatar was willing to do) his government chose to buy on the spot market (which was slightly cheaper at the time) and say Nawaz was corrupt for signing slightly more expensive fixed LNG contracts.

Well what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine???? Spot market prices skyrocketed since EU was willing to out bid anyone....No more cheap LNG. His LNG policy was very shorted sighted and not focused on long term growth. Pakistani governments simply do not hedge against high energy prices.....its been a long term problem. Nawaz's fixed rate LNG contracts are today some of the cheapest LNG Pakistan gets and Qatar as never missed a delivery.

 

[RoadRunner401]

Is the current crowd professional ? just curious

Yes, They are part of worlds oldest profession. Sponsored by their pimp daddy, Asim Munir.

 

[Maula Jatt]

This has been discussed to death.

Under PTI Pakistan achieved 5%+ GDP growth, forex $20bn+, Exports $32bn+, Imports $70bn+, inflation 10%.

Check the GDP growth figures, export growth figures of Pakistan and its neighbors during the time.

The top imports of Pakistan are Refined Petroleum ($6.58B), Petroleum Gas ($6.41B), Crude Petroleum ($3.53B), Palm Oil($3.36B), and Vaccines, blood, antisera, toxins and cultures($3.06B).

Remember Covid and Commodity super cycle.

What were you guys expecting? 10% GDP growth at 0 inflation and 0 trade deficit?

And see what has happened since the past 20 months despite low commodity prices, Covid.

Please think dispassionately.

mere bhai
Exports of 32 bn with imports of 85 BN imports dont go well together, resulting in high CAD - everyone with senses even back than was ringing alarm bells including PTI supporters
Youre defending the indefedable - just like PMLN supporters support for Dar- similar talking points about growth, no inflation, infrastructure and pipe dreams

Pakistan is in too tough a position for it come out without all parties letting go off populist measures/ coming together under an economic charter/ check & balance commision where leading economist can stop government from implementing short sighted policies just for votes
bigger than political parties at this point all these parties have to sit down and work together for both economy and democracy
those who dont are not doing right by pakistanis

 

[RoadRunner401]

mere bhai
Exports of 32 bn with imports of 85 BN imports dont go well together, resulting in high CAD - everyone with senses even back than was ringing alarm bells including PTI supporters
Youre defending the indefedable - just like PMLN supporters support for Dar- similar talking points about growth, no inflation, infrastructure and pipe dreams

Pakistan is in too tough a position for it come out without all parties letting go off populist measures/ coming together under an economic charter/ check & balance commision where leading economist can stop government from implementing short sighted policies just for votes
bigger than political parties at this point all these parties have to sit down and work together for both economy and democracy
those who dont are not doing right by pakistanis

People like this is what's wrong with pakistan...

Don't understand what I mean let me explain it to you this way.

When IK took over Pakistan economy was literally bankrupt, PMLN finnace Minister had escaped to London while they were in power. we had no reserves and almost non existence exports.

Nawaz sharief had kept the Rupee low against us dollars artificially by borrowing and dumping dollars in the Market. We were importing literally everything including everyday uswd agricultural products and are suppose to be agricultural country.

Now, Let's look at the Finances PMLN left behind.

16000 Trillion PKR G.O.P Expense
11000 Trillion PKR Debt servicing
11000 PKR Defense expenses
Total revenue 4000 Trillion PKR

Bonus
Negative ratings from all credit reporting agencies

I will wait for the reponse and take it furtur after that.