Pakistan economy out look : USD to hit 350 , inflation 25% and growth less than 2%

[Indos]

This has been discussed to death.

Under PTI Pakistan achieved 5%+ GDP growth, forex $20bn+, Exports $32bn+, Imports $70bn+, inflation 10%.

Check the GDP growth figures, export growth figures of Pakistan and its neighbors during the time.

The top imports of Pakistan are Refined Petroleum ($6.58B), Petroleum Gas ($6.41B), Crude Petroleum ($3.53B), Palm Oil($3.36B), and Vaccines, blood, antisera, toxins and cultures($3.06B).

Remember Covid and Commodity super cycle.

What were you guys expecting? 10% GDP growth at 0 inflation and 0 trade deficit?

And see what has happened since the past 20 months despite low commodity prices, Covid.

Please think dispassionately.

You need to see the global situation like US The Fed tightening policy since the end of 2021 which is continued until October 2023, Russian invasion effect in early 2022 that push fuel price up all over the world where fuel price is still at 80-90 USD in October 2023.

During IK, fuel price was still pretty low where oil price is broken in 2020 and only around 60 USD since second semester of 2021. Other fuel price is also very low at that time as its price will follow oil price price fluctuation. While in contrast, Coal price was at record high in 2022 and Today its price is still higher than its normal price at pre Russian invasion.

What Pak economy experience is due to its fundamental weakness that is caused by long practice of unresponsible spending mostly for defense spending, we see Srilanka fall and even BD has huge difficulty to pay for their import and need to get IMF loan despite having better economic fundamental than Pakistan.

Malaysia Ringgit is even crushed this year while their economic growth is also getting slower in 2023 into just around 3 percent. Singapore will likely grow below 1 percent for whole 2023 if we see their GDP growth in Q1, Q2, and Q3

All export will go down, ultimately for countries like Pakistan who target European market for its textile industry.

In essence, it is all caused by external invironment, nothing to do with current administration. As Pak has weak eco fundamental, its economy fall down more rapidly than other nation due to double effect of US The Fed tightening policy and Russian invasion economic effect. Indonesia had experience on 1997 Asian Financial crisis which is also caused by external environment as it started in Thailand, so we have been preparing this since early 2000 with one of them is applying budget discipline where budget deficit is tamed into below 3% of GDP since early 2000's. It includes other reforms in other economic fields like in banking system, SOE, anti corruption, governance, etc. In relation to defense spending, it only spend less than 1 % of GDP since 1998 where in 2022 it is only at 0.7 % and will likely be at 0.6 % of GDP next year if economic growth will be at 5 percent in 2024.

 

[SD 10]

They're trying to clean up the mess left behind by NS, Musharaf, Imran Khan
itll take time - sure headlines won't be pretty for some time but if ran professionally by people like in current administration itll be fine
atleast that's my hope, this or a charter of economy where every political party must be held accountable if they're making populists decisions for public support regardless of economic downturn down the line

unfortunately dars coming back so idk - probably back to same crappy policies of 90s,2000s consumption led growth, 2010s desperate attempts for growth crashing down after every 3 years because fundamentals were wrong (Dars artificial $ rate led growth, Imrans deficit led growth, PPP's quite literally doing nothing policy)

I would much rather prefer 350 pkr than Dar pulling cheap shenanigans

current administration is no different from dar... its the same school of thought!

 

[313ghazi]

I was talking about this caretaker regime
don't expect much from Dar - just hoping for some kinda financially sound charter of economics that's all

This is not beyond imran Khan ......
because he partly frickin caused is lmfao

I love how delusional PTI supporters are

Thats ridiculous. When Imran Khan was in power the economy was doing fine - in fact it was flourishing. It tanked AFTER he was removed.

He steered the economy through covid and had 6% growth cooking. Inflation was on the rise and to combat that he had started subsidising fuel, for a LIMITED time, it was a costed, planned step. The "new" govt came in place, refused to take away the subsidy after the money allocated for it ran out and then worked further to run the economy into the ground.

Stop being a faujeet, they're not going to kidnap you if you don't praise them 24/7.

In essence, it is all caused by external invironment, nothing to do with current administration. As Pak has weak eco fundamental, its economy fall down more rapidly than other nation due to double effect of US The Fed tightening policy and Russian invasion economic effect. Indonesia had experience on 1997 Asian Financial crisis which is also caused by external environment as it started in Thailand, so we have been preparing this since early 2000 with one of them is applying budget discipline where budget deficit is tamed into below 3% of GDP since early 2000's. It includes other reforms in other economic fields like in banking system, SOE, anti corruption, governance, etc. In relation to defense spending, it only spend less than 1 % of GDP since 1998 where in 2022 it is only at 0.7 % and will likely be at 0.6 % of GDP next year if economic growth will be at 5 percent in 2024.

It might have been caused in part by external environments, but the govt is the one responsible for steering the country through those conditions. Khan managed to get us through COVID-19 and was not phased by it, these duffers couldn't manage something simpler than that. I agree our economic fundementals are wrong - but during the Khan govt, the policies were both focused on protecting the most vulnerable in society and encouraging growth - the people that replaced him only lined their own pockets.

 

[Indos]

It might have been caused in part by external environments, but the govt is the one responsible for steering the country through those conditions. Khan managed to get us through COVID-19 and was not phased by it, these duffers couldn't manage something simpler than that.

It is true that the kicking out of IK cause the country becomes more vulnerable due to its political instability that is caused by that. Pretty much similar with Indonesia 1997-1998 economic crisis that was also exacerbated with political instability where the call for democracy and demonstrations by student universities become the major instability in the political landscape during that period.

This should be looked and hopefully become the lesson despite it is the nature of parliamentary system to create such opportunity to topple their current PM just like happening in Israel, Britain, Malaysia as well.

Despite so, the topple of IK is legal in the Pakistan current system, but IK attempt to fight the topple is the one that create the mess as you dont see this happened in Britain, Israel, Malaysia and others. Just quite ridiculous that IK tried to target the motive as every one knows that opposition motive is always to enable them to get into power and parliamentary system is supportive for such motive target to happen sooner before the next election.

The toppling process (non confidence vote in parliament) is legal though in parliamentary system.

 

[313ghazi]

It is true that the kicking out of IK cause the country becomes more vulnerable due to its political instability that is caused by that. Pretty much similar with Indonesia 1997-1998 economic crisis that was also exacerbated with political instability where the call for democracy and demonstrations by student universities become the major instability in the political landscape during that period.

This should be looked and hopefully become the lesson despite it is the nature of parliamentary system to create such opportunity to topple their current PM just like happening in Israel, Britain, Malaysia as well.

Despite so, the topple of IK is legal in the Pakistan current system, but IK attempt to fight the topple is the one that create the mess as you dont see this happened in Britain, Israel, Malaysia and others. Just quite ridiculous that IK tried to target the motive as every one knows that opposition motive is always to enable them to get into power and parliamentary system is supportive for such motive to happen sooner before the next election.

Explain to me which part of the below was legal.

1. Bringing a vote of no confidence into motion on the behest of a foreign power?
2. Releasing convicts from Prison to allow them to vote in parliament? (he has since been returned to prison ironically)
3. Cancelling the arrest warrants of murder suspects to allow them to vote in parliament?
4. Restoring a dissolved government, so that a vote of no confidence could be passed, rather than having an election?

The disregard for law has continued. The current sitting President of Pakistan has confirmed he has not signed certain documents on which his signature has been forged.

You do realise these things have happened?

 

[Samlee]

View attachment 1033232

The question is why isn’t Geo TV and likes covering this ? …

Why isn’t fool’s nightmare and that fishy side kick talking about these real issues ..?

Why are PDM and their sponsors only interested where Imran Khan’s dick has been ?


Why ?

No They Cannot Do That Right Now The Biggest Issue For Saleem Lifafi and Jeda Changar Is That Whether IK F*cks Dogs Or Not

 

[Indos]

Explain to me which part of the below was legal.

1. Bringing a vote of no confidence into motion on the behest of a foreign power?
2. Releasing convicts from Prison to allow them to vote in parliament? (he has since been returned to prison ironically)
3. Cancelling the arrest warrants of murder suspects to allow them to vote in parliament?
4. Restoring a dissolved government, so that a vote of no confidence could be passed, rather than having an election?

The disregard for law has continued. The current sitting President of Pakistan has confirmed he has not signed certain documents on which his signature has been forged.

You do realise these things have happened?

What foreign power ? It is just the interest of foreign power and the power in Pakistan is inline. Impossible you can dictate a country as big as Pakistan with big military force. The same like many people accuse CIA made Soekarno fall. Nah, Soekarno fall is due to his approval to Indonesian Communist Party proposal to create another army with 1 million soldiers strength consisting of Indonesian Communist Members to help him capture Malaysia and Singapore and beat British, Australia in the process that stand behind his ambition to create Nusantara empire that previously included Malaysia and Singapore as well (Srivijaya and Majapahit empire).

This that lead to our Army to try to get rid Soekarno before Indonesia fall into civil war after Soekarno died. CIA has the same interest and help with political support but their support is pretty meaningless in the country as big as Indonesia. This is for example true as CIA attempted to break out Indonesia by supporting rebellion in West Sumatra and in Sulawesi/Maluku are all failed.

---------------------

IK know he will face Army as well, so the effect of such IK attempt will be in three results :

1. IK wins (political instability in the process)
2. IK lost (political instability in the process)
3. The country went into chaos just like in Syria/Libya

What is the danger on IK is that he prosecuted his opponent into something like attempt to hang them (Musharaf/ NS). Remember Musharaf is Army retired, fool for him to target Musharaf, and since he also targeted NS, so it is very logic that the two powers are joining force to get rid IK

His propaganda on Genocide on Kashimir could also lead to the war with India that could cost huge devastation to Pakistan, something that I see Pak Army wanted to prevent as we see current admin dont talk about genocide this and genocide that anymore.

That genocide story I believe is the preparation to get Pakistani public support if such thing will be really executed, you cannot wage war without any pretext and public support like Soekarno pretext is to tell Indonesian people that both Malaysia and Singapore will be British hands (we fought British in our independent war), Putin also said Ukraine will be the NATO hand to hurt Russia, USA told their public that Saddam Hussein has Nuclear or Chemical Bomb bla bla bla while profiting from the effect of 9/11 which many analysts has said that 9/11 is the event that is let to happened in order to create such pretext, recent event like 7 October Hamas raid is also predicted to be allowed to create such pretext and get Public support on War that Hardline Israeli parties are dreaming of for long time.

 

[Olympus81]

Despite so, the topple of IK is legal in the Pakistan current system, but IK attempt to fight the topple is the one that create the mess as you dont see this happened in Britain, Israel, Malaysia and others. Just quite ridiculous that IK tried to target the motive as every one knows that opposition motive is always to enable them to get into power and parliamentary system is supportive for such motive target to happen sooner before the next election.

The No Confidence motion process is a legal process within the democratic system but the way it was enabled raised many questions. Why were convicted criminals and treasonous actors invited back in the parliament to reach the numbers required. And why was the person who was about to be convicted installed as a PM. There were many other instances of foul play.

Don’t insult the intelligence of the majority of the Pakistanis.

And then the system showed its real face by not conducting elections within the stipulated 90 days time of the assemblies dissolving and here we are.

 

[Olympus81]

You need to see the global situation like US The Fed tightening policy since the end of 2021 which is continued until October 2023, Russian invasion effect in early 2022 that push fuel price up all over the world where fuel price is still at 80-90 USD in October 2023.

During IK, fuel price was still pretty low where oil price is broken in 2020 and only around 60 USD since second semester of 2021. Other fuel price is also very low at that time as its price will follow oil price price fluctuation. While in contrast, Coal price was at record high in 2022 and Today its price is still higher than its normal price at pre Russian invasion.

My argument was Pakistan was in a growth trajectory, not in a mature state. Hence my comments what do ‘you’ guys expect. By no means was Pakistan’s economy in a perfect shape.

After PMLN’s corruption and Dar’s damage, Pakistan’s economy vis a vis its neighbours was doing well. Hence, the Regime Change Operation was uncalled for. But the petty minds of Generals fail to grasp a simple concept.

The pre and post NCV caused massive instability. Coupled with the fact that the public knew who the actual villain was. And the priorities of the newly installed politicians to close their cases. That cascaded into forex reserves depletion, imports / exports down, devaluation, massive inflation and other indicators in the negative.

 

[313ghazi]

What foreign power ? It is just the interest of foreign power and the power in Pakistan is inline. Impossible you can dictate a country as big as Pakistan with big military force. The same like many people accuse CIA made Soekarno fall. Nah, Soekarno fall is due to his approval to Indonesian Communist Party proposal to create another army with 1 million soldiers strength consisting of Indonesian Communist Members to help him capture Malaysia and Singapore and beat British, Australia in the process that stand behind his ambition to create Nusantara empire that previously included Malaysia and Singapore as well (Srivijaya and Majapahit empire).

This that lead to our Army to try to get rid Soekarno before Indonesia fall into civil war after Soekarno died. CIA has the same interest and help with political support but their support is pretty meaningless in the country as big as Indonesia. This is for example true as CIA attempted to break out Indonesia by supporting rebellion in West Sumatra and in Sulawesi/Maluku are all failed.

---------------------

IK know he will face Army as well, so the effect of such IK attempt will be in three results :

1. IK wins (political instability in the process)
2. IK lost (political instability in the process)
3. The country went into chaos just like in Syria/Libya

What is the danger on IK is that he prosecuted his opponent into something like attempt to hang them (Musharaf/ NS). Remember Musharaf is Army retired, fool for him to target Musharaf, and since he also targeted NS, so it is very logic that the two powers are joining force to get rid IK

His propaganda on Genocide on Kashimir could also lead to the war with India that could cost huge devastation to Pakistan, something that I see Pak Army wanted to prevent as we see current admin dont talk about genocide this and genocide that anymore.

That genocide story I believe is the preparation to get Pakistani public support if such thing will be really executed, you cannot wage war without any pretext and public support like Soekarno pretext is to tell Indonesian people that both Malaysia and Singapore will be British hands (we fought British in our independent war), Putin also said Ukraine will be the NATO hand to hurt Russia, USA told their public that Saddam Hussein has Nuclear or Chemical Bomb bla bla bla while profiting from the effect of 9/11 which many analysts has said that 9/11 is the event that is let to happened in order to create such pretext, recent event like 7 October Hamas raid is also predicted to be allowed to create such pretext and get Public support on War that Hardline Israeli parties are dreaming of for long time.

You think Kashmir is not facing genocide? Do you think Kashmir has never had genocide?

 

[ST1976]

here we have current exchange rate:

Exchange Rates Graph (US Dollar, Pakistani Rupee) - X-Rates

View a US Dollar to Pakistani Rupee currency exchange rate graph. This currency graph will show you a 1 month USD/PKR history.

www.x-rates.com

here, we usually dont find Bangladeshi Taka. what would be its current price?

 

[Indos]

You think Kashmir is not facing genocide? Do you think Kashmir has never had genocide?

Duh, IK said there are thousands genocide happened. LOL that number is similar like what is happening in Gaza now that creates so many global outcry........

If any killing or raping happened to civilians in Kashmir, international organization will know that, media will know that..........

I dont know why you guys are so fanatics on IK ? That is not good. We have to be critical on our own leaders.

The way he handled Pakistan politics is pretty stupid by accusing blutantly other parties are very corrupt. Wanting to hang Musharaf, ex Military General. That is not the way to create good political environment in Pakistan and not good for his own party either as party needs to get more friend instead of making enemy to every body

 

[Olympus81]

Duh, IK said there are thousands genocide happened. LOL that number is similar like what is happening in Gaza now that creates so many global outcry........

If any killing or raping happened to civilians in Kashmir, international organization will know that, media will know that..........

I dont know why you guys are so fanatics on IK ? That is not good. We have to be critical on our own leaders.

Doubt IK said there are ‘thousands of genocide’.

A genocide would be taking it too far considering Kashmir. A massacre, yes, a genocide, no.

 

[Indos]

Doubt IK said there are ‘thousands of genocide’.

A genocide would be taking it too far considering Kashmir. A massacre, yes, a genocide, no.

You need to see his previous statements. I dont make story here, for what ? I just want stronger Pakistan and not let the only Muslim nuclear power lead to the mess we see Today or even making its own destruction with another war with India.

 

[313ghazi]

Duh, IK said there are thousands genocide happened. LOL that number is similar like what is happening in Gaza now that creates so many global outcry........

If any killing or raping happened to civilians in Kashmir, international organization will know that, media will know that..........

I dont know why you guys are so fanatics on IK ? That is not good. We have to be critical on our own leaders.

The way he handled Pakistan politics is pretty stupid by accusing blutantly other parties are very corrupt. Wanting to hang Musharaf, ex Military General. That is not the way to create good political environment in Pakistan and not good for his own party either as party needs to get more friend instead of making enemy to every body

Now you are lying and i've caught you in your lie. Give me a quote where he said thousands are being killed?

I can provide you historical evidence of thousands being killed, raped, murdered, buried in mass graves, disappeared and forcefully evicted.

At that point, you will still deny genocide in Kashmir of course.