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Oxford Economics projects Indonesia’s GDP to grow 6% in 2021

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Oxford Economics projects Indonesia’s GDP to grow 6% in 2021

Adrian Wail Akhlas

The Jakarta Post Jakarta / Mon, January 4, 2021 / 04:08 pm


1609734585764.png

Shop attendants arrange mannequins on June 15, 2020 at Tanah Abang Market in Central Jakarta, the largest textile market in Southeast Asia. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)

Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to rebound this year after it fell in 2020 into its first recession since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, but the coronavirus pandemic will continue to dampen economic activities, according to the reports of several international organizations.

According to the latest economic outlook from Oxford Economics commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to shrink 2.2 percent in 2020 and rebound to 6.0 percent growth in 2021, driven by increases in consumer and infrastructure spending. “Retail sales and industry production are relatively stable in Indonesia compared to Southeast Asian peer countries,” the ICAEW said in a statement on Dec. 28.

It added, however, that Indonesia’s economic recovery remained uncertain, as social mobility and retail sales were still weak compared to pre-pandemic levels, while imports fell significantly last year. Indonesia plunged into its first recession in two decades in the third quarter of 2020 as the government struggled to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the attendant economic fallout. Read also: Outlook 2021: Indonesian economy likely to rebound but risks loom The government has further downgraded its 2020 GDP forecast to a contraction of between 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent amid the continuing rise in COVID-19 cases, as well as from the tighter restrictions during the year-end holiday season that are expected to hit consumption.

The government made concerted efforts to ban crowd-pulling events from Dec. 18 to Jan. 8, including New Year’s Eve celebrations, in a bid to prevent a post-holiday spike in coronavirus infections. “We expect household spending to contract by 3.6 percent to 2.6 percent due to the increase in COVID-19 cases in December that prompted tighter restrictions,” Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said during a recent virtual press briefing, adding that she expected the economy to grow 5 percent in 2021.

As regards the region, the ICAEW has forecast that Southeast Asia’s GDP will contract 4.1 percent in 2020 before expanding 6.2 percent in 2021 as a result of the low base effect, coupled with fiscal and monetary support. It has warned that growth might be constrained by further social distancing measures, but countries that are able to roll out vaccines quickly could continue to ease restrictions.

“While uncertainties remain and most economies will take time to recoup lost output, risks have become more balanced with recent positive news on vaccines and regional growth prospects for Southeast Asia in the medium to long term are optimistic,” it stated. Earlier reports from other international institutions projected a stronger Indonesian economy in 2021, with the World Bank forecasting 4.4 percent growth and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasting 4.5 percent growth.

Read also: Singapore's virus-hit economy suffers worst decline in 2020

“[Indonesia’s] Growth in 2021 is projected to rebound, partly driven by a base effect and assuming that consumer confidence improves and household income is supported by a stronger labor market and adequate social assistance,” the World Bank said in its December 2020 Indonesia Economic Prospects (IEP). “Public health remains a top priority to allow the economy to stay open and to move towards a safe full reopening,” said the IEP, and that continued improvement in testing and contact tracing, as well as preparations to procure and widely administer effective vaccines were the keys to recovery.

The bank warned that the possibility of a surge in virus cases could trigger tighter mobility restrictions in the country, and that slower-than-expected progress in the availability of an effective and safe vaccine “would weaken consumer and business confidence and dampen economic activity longer than expected”. Furthermore, weaker global demand and slower recovery among advanced economies would weaken trade and commodity prices, which might impact the Indonesian economy, it added.

@Viet We will see whether starting this year Indonesia economic growth can match Vietnam growth or not...........We are competing now in nominal GDP per-capita basis
 
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This project will likely make Sumatra island competitive enough for manufacturing base inshaAllah. As of Today, Java island is still the most attractive place in my country for businesses to put their factory. The gas is expected to be produced some years from now. In the past there is some shortage of gas supply in Sumatra island that make some industries there get difficulty to operate in full capacity.

For the last 4-5 years under Jokowi administration I dont hear such thing anymore but it has anyway hampered Sumatra industrialization for quite some time. With this gas field I would say businesses will be quite interested to use Sumatra island as their manufacturing base. So it is up to government to build the gas pipe infrastructure to distribute the gas into Economic Zones across the island.

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SKK Migas approves $359m plan for Repsol in gas-rich Kaliberau field

Norman Harsono

The Jakarta Post Jakarta / Mon, January 4, 2021 / 12:24 pm



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Repsol's KBD-2X well in the Kaliberau field, Sakakemang block, South Sumatra is pictured. The block is jointly operated by Repsol, Malaysia's Petronas and Japan's Mitsui Oil Exploration. (Courtesy of SKK Migas/-)


The Upstream Oil and Gas Special Regulatory Task Force (SKK Migas) has approved Spain-based Repsol’s first plan of development (PoD) in the gas-rich Kaliberau field in the Sakakemang block, South Sumatra.

SKK Migas said in a statement on Dec. 30 that the plan, approved on Dec. 29, entailed re-drilling the lucrative KBD-2X well, drilling one new production well and building new infrastructure, including a pipeline to the Grissik central gas plant in the neighboring Corridor block.

Read also: Govt’s flexible oil and gas contract choice ‘positive’ for investment: Analyst

“The [company] is expected to immediately execute the plan to start production as soon as possible,” said SKK Migas spokeswoman Susana Kurniasih. The field holds an estimated 2 trillion cubic feet of recoverable resources, according to initial estimates announced in 2019, which crowned it Indonesia’s biggest gas discovery in almost two decades after ExxonMobil’s discovery of the Cepu oil field in Central Java in 2001.

The field plays an important role in realizing the government’s ambition of doubling domestic gas production over the decade and building new gas infrastructure such that Indonesia becomes a major Asia Pacific gas exporter by 2030.

The task force expects Kaliberau field to sell 287,70 billion standard cubic feet (bscf) of natural gas and 0.17 million stock tank barrels (mmstb) of condensate throughout its economical lifespan until 2038. The total reserves are estimated at 445.10 bscf. The field’s production rate is expected to peak at 85 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) for natural gas and 34 barrels condensate per day (bcpd).

Read also: Weak domestic demand, gas infrastructure hamper 2030 SKK Migas goal

Susana explained that building the pipeline was part of a bigger plan in "monetizing gas fields near existing gas distribution infrastructure to meet domestic gas demand quickly and accurately." Experts have said that poor gas infrastructure had limited Indonesia's gas demand and thus, limited investors' appetites to explore new gas reserves.

 
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Oxford Economics projects Indonesia’s GDP to grow 6% in 2021

Adrian Wail Akhlas

The Jakarta Post Jakarta / Mon, January 4, 2021 / 04:08 pm


View attachment 703080
Shop attendants arrange mannequins on June 15, 2020 at Tanah Abang Market in Central Jakarta, the largest textile market in Southeast Asia. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)

Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to rebound this year after it fell in 2020 into its first recession since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, but the coronavirus pandemic will continue to dampen economic activities, according to the reports of several international organizations.

According to the latest economic outlook from Oxford Economics commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to shrink 2.2 percent in 2020 and rebound to 6.0 percent growth in 2021, driven by increases in consumer and infrastructure spending. “Retail sales and industry production are relatively stable in Indonesia compared to Southeast Asian peer countries,” the ICAEW said in a statement on Dec. 28.

It added, however, that Indonesia’s economic recovery remained uncertain, as social mobility and retail sales were still weak compared to pre-pandemic levels, while imports fell significantly last year. Indonesia plunged into its first recession in two decades in the third quarter of 2020 as the government struggled to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the attendant economic fallout. Read also: Outlook 2021: Indonesian economy likely to rebound but risks loom The government has further downgraded its 2020 GDP forecast to a contraction of between 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent amid the continuing rise in COVID-19 cases, as well as from the tighter restrictions during the year-end holiday season that are expected to hit consumption.

The government made concerted efforts to ban crowd-pulling events from Dec. 18 to Jan. 8, including New Year’s Eve celebrations, in a bid to prevent a post-holiday spike in coronavirus infections. “We expect household spending to contract by 3.6 percent to 2.6 percent due to the increase in COVID-19 cases in December that prompted tighter restrictions,” Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said during a recent virtual press briefing, adding that she expected the economy to grow 5 percent in 2021.

As regards the region, the ICAEW has forecast that Southeast Asia’s GDP will contract 4.1 percent in 2020 before expanding 6.2 percent in 2021 as a result of the low base effect, coupled with fiscal and monetary support. It has warned that growth might be constrained by further social distancing measures, but countries that are able to roll out vaccines quickly could continue to ease restrictions.

“While uncertainties remain and most economies will take time to recoup lost output, risks have become more balanced with recent positive news on vaccines and regional growth prospects for Southeast Asia in the medium to long term are optimistic,” it stated. Earlier reports from other international institutions projected a stronger Indonesian economy in 2021, with the World Bank forecasting 4.4 percent growth and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasting 4.5 percent growth.

Read also: Singapore's virus-hit economy suffers worst decline in 2020

“[Indonesia’s] Growth in 2021 is projected to rebound, partly driven by a base effect and assuming that consumer confidence improves and household income is supported by a stronger labor market and adequate social assistance,” the World Bank said in its December 2020 Indonesia Economic Prospects (IEP). “Public health remains a top priority to allow the economy to stay open and to move towards a safe full reopening,” said the IEP, and that continued improvement in testing and contact tracing, as well as preparations to procure and widely administer effective vaccines were the keys to recovery.

The bank warned that the possibility of a surge in virus cases could trigger tighter mobility restrictions in the country, and that slower-than-expected progress in the availability of an effective and safe vaccine “would weaken consumer and business confidence and dampen economic activity longer than expected”. Furthermore, weaker global demand and slower recovery among advanced economies would weaken trade and commodity prices, which might impact the Indonesian economy, it added.

@Viet We will see whether starting this year Indonesia economic growth can match Vietnam growth or not...........We are competing now in nominal GDP per-capita basis

It could be.

Based on my observation on the street, the economy is mostly almost returning to normal.

Yes, there's Covid-19 and social distancing is still being practiced.

But somehow people able to manage to live with it.
 
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It could be.

Based on my observation on the street, the economy is mostly almost returning to normal.

Yes, there's Covid-19 and social distancing is still being practiced.

But somehow people able to manage to live with it.

Consumption is decreasing, but yes there is picking up being seen after lock down measure is lifted

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Indonesia records lowest inflation in history as purchasing power deteriorates further

Adrian Wail Akhlas

The Jakarta Post
PREMIUM
Jakarta / Mon, January 4, 2021 / 06:25 pm


1609749071658.png

Shoppers buy fresh chili at Peunayong traditional market in Aceh on Feb. 3, 2020. (Antara/Irwansyah Putra)

Indonesia recorded the lowest annual inflation in the country’s history in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged the economy and battered purchasing power. The country’s annual consumer price index (CPI) stood at 1.68 percent last year as prices advanced 0.45 percent on a monthly basis in December, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday.

The figure is the lowest full year number in history and below Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range of 2 to 4 percent last year. While a low inflation rate is good for an economy as it means consumers can buy goods and services at affordable prices, the low figure in Indonesia last year indicates weakening purchasing power rather than balanced supply and demand.

 
Outlook 2021: Govt to push downstream mining industry as coal, metals rebound gently

Norman Harsono

The Jakarta Post PREMIUM

Jakarta / Tue, January 5, 2021 / 07:19 pm



1609835680937.png

The Pomalaa nickel smelter in Kolaka, Southeast Sulawesi, operated by state-owned metal miner PT Aneka Tambang (Antam).(Handout/Antam)

Indonesia is poised to spend this year catching up on plans to develop a downstream mining industry as the country races against time to adapt to a long-term global shift in ore demand away from coal towards metals, while prices are expected to rebound gently.

Coal miners plan to continue studying the development of a downstream industry, while metal miners plan to resume their pandemic-delayed metal smelter projects. The latter particularly applies to nickel miners, who were the first to experience a government raw metal export ban.

State-owned mining holding company MIND ID hopes to close several deals early this year related to the formation of a flagship, nickel-rich electric vehicle (EV) battery industry in Indonesia. “Nickel is expected to become an alternative to the coal industry that has all this time been a major contributor to the mining sector,” said Samu...

 
Commodity price is soaring in the beginning of 2021 despite the global economy hasnt yet reached its optimum level due to pandemic. The price of coal jumps into 75.84 USD per ton, which is 27,14 % increase from the price in Desember at 59.68 USD per ton.

This price is already close to 2019 price at 76. USD per ton. I would predict if the global vaccination is success, there is possibility to see coal price above 100 USD per ton which will be very good for Indonesian economy recovery. For domestic demand, government has set highest price at 70 USD per ton to supply electricity power plant, which mean businesses operating in Indonesia will be quite secured from increase global coal price.

Oil price is also predicted at 65 USD per barrel for 2021 which I see as quite positive for Indonesia state owned oil and gas giant, PT Pertamina, and also private owned one PT Medco Energy. Oil price is still traded at 50 USD per barrel as of early 2021.

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  • Agriculture
  • 31 Dec 2020 | 16:00 UTC
  • Singapore

Commodities 2021: Tight production, demand expectations to support Asian palm oil prices


Singapore — Asian palm oil prices are likely to stay firm heading toward 2021 on supply concerns and potentially rising demand due to COVID-19 vaccine developments while competing vegetable oils provide further support.

A recovery in palm prices from May onward as India and China emerged from COVID-19 lockdowns is expected to extend into the first half of 2021. The sentiment is further buoyed by forecasts of lower production in first quarter 2021, and by the Indonesian government's announcement that the B30 biodiesel mandate would be upheld.

High prices of competing vegetable oils could also support palm oil. Soybean oil prices have rallied due to weather concerns in South America, and near-term prices have been buoyed by a labor strike in Argentina. Sunflower oil prices have strengthened on supply tightness in the Black Sea, where production during the October 2019 to September 2020 period decreased by 2 million-3 million mt due to dry conditions causing poor harvests and low oil content in seeds.


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Foreign investors are getting more confidence on Indonesia economy and it is shown by their action buying Indonesian stock. Rupiah is also getting appreciated since Desember due to optimism on vaccination and now the currency has been traded below Rp 14.000 per USD. I predict that if there is no hurdle in vaccination program and first quarter economic growth shows adequate positive growth plus surplus trade balance, then Rupiah can be around 13.400-13.500 per USD.

In the meantime government has imposed regulation to coal producer to supply 25 % of their production to domestic industry with highest price set at 70 USD per ton. This action I believe can improve foreign investor appetite to invest in Indonesia since the will have stable energy price for their factory.

https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/...bara-di-2021-minimal-25-ini-aturan-lengkapnya
 
Valuable data to understand our economy and also ASEAN economy.

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The 2019 World Competitiveness Index published by Swiss-based International Institute for Management Development (IMD). Indonesia, moved up eleven places from a year earlier to No. 32.
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Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia seen fully recovering in 2021
IMF unveils mixed economic forecasts for Southeast Asia
1610490889866.png

A bedding factory in Hanoi: Vietnam has succeeded in curbing both the health and economic impact of COVID-19. © Reuters


TOMOYA ONISHI, Nikkei staff writerDecember 29, 2020 02:56 JST

HANOI -- Southeast Asia's six leading economies are expected to face diverging fiscal paths in 2021, with Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia gaining from pre-pandemic levels while Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand struggle to return to health.

Nikkei compiled the International Monetary Fund's country-based projections for real gross domestic product, setting the 2019 figures as a baseline of 100. Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia all scored above the 100 mark for 2021, meaning their economies are seen expanding next year compared with the level before the coronavirus outbreak in 2019. Still, all six countries face continued uncertainties from the epidemic, as well as the new incoming administration in the U.S.

Vietnam is forecast to lead the group with a projected growth index of 108.4. S&P Global predicts the Vietnamese economy will expand 10.9% in real terms in 2021, more than any other country in the Asia-Pacific, following a 2.91% uptick this year.

Vietnam was also the only one of the six to log real economic growth in 2020, thanks to its quick success in curbing the coronavirus pandemic. Its leadership also bolstered effective demand through public projects ahead of the Communist Party Congress that begins there in January.

"Many global companies are flocking to Vietnam, which is a boon to its exports," said Yuta Tsukada at the Japan Research Institute. Given the low production costs in the country, Tsukada sees more companies shifting operations there from China, should the trade war between Washington and Beijing continue.

Indonesia came in second with a growth index of 104.5. The so-called omnibus law on job creation signed by President Joko Widodo in November is expected to give companies greater freedom and help attract foreign investment when it takes effect. Malaysia, with an index of 101.3, could also see exports of mainstay products like electronics recover once the global economy stabilizes.

Meanwhile, Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand are not expected to cross the 100 mark until 2022.

https%3A%2F%2Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%2Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%2Fimages%2F_aliases%2Farticleimage%2F8%2F8%2F8%2F5%2F31485888-1-eng-GB%2F2020-06-07T000000Z_1566949820_RC264H9D5S2N_RTRMADP_3_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-THAILAND-TOURISM.JPG
Few tourists can be seen at the Grand Palace in Bangkok on June 7, after it reopened following a monthslong closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic. © Reuters

Thailand's tourism sector, which accounts for about 20% of GDP, is seen struggling next year as well, with no clear end in sight for entry restrictions on foreign travelers. Auto exports, a key driver for growth, are also unlikely to recover to 2019 levels.

The Philippines' outlook on consumer spending is murky, given a slowdown in sales of cars and other durable goods. Singapore's tourism sector will likely also see a slow recovery.

Despite differences in their individual forecasts, all six countries could be impacted by global developments regarding the coronavirus as well as U.S. policies under President-elect Joe Biden after he takes office on Jan. 20.

Though COVID-19 vaccines are starting to become available in certain areas, they may not become widespread in emerging economies like those in Southeast Asia for a long time. Their effectiveness against new strains discovered in the U.K. and elsewhere has yet to be proven as well.

Biden's Democratic power base also leans toward protectionist policies, and is reluctant to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact that sitting President Donald Trump exited. Moreover, the U.S. Treasury this month labeled Vietnam a currency manipulator with an eye on its massive trade surplus with the U.S. Vietnamese exports could suffer a blow should the country be forced to revaluate its currency.

 
Indonesia import history chart

Blue Line is Raw Material/Supporting Goods (which is essential for manufacturing industry)

Black Line is capital Goods which is also essential for manufacturing

Red Line is consumer goods

Consumer goods imports is less than 10 percent of Indonesian total imports.

In Million USD
1610583384834.png


 
Indonesia will be the powerhouse of SE Asia for sure, economically and militarily. All the recent hype about Vietnam are just that, hype. Indonesia actually has the potential to surpass Japan and Germany.
 
Indonesia's Demographic Dividend Reaches Peak in 2021
BY :JAKARTA GLOBE JANUARY 22, 2021
1611288663204.png

People walk on a pedestrian road crossing in Central Jakarta last August. (SP Photo/Joanito De Saojoao)


Jakarta. Indonesia would reach the peak of its demographic dividend this year as the working-age population now account for close to 71 percent of the country's total population, and its birth rate continues to decline, according to the latest census data published on Thursday.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced its 2020 Population Census's interim result on Thursday, tallying Indonesia's total population at 270.2 million, 14 percent higher than its population in 2010 of 237 million people. The data suggested that Indonesia's population was growing at a pace of 1.25 percent per year in the past decade, slowing from the 1.49 percent pace a decade earlier.

The number of people between 15 and 64 years old, the working-age group, was 191 million, or 70.7 percent of its total population in 2020. In comparison, the working-age population accounted for only 53 percent of the total in 1971 and around two-thirds of the total in 2010.

Still, with a declining birth rate, the working-age population is unlikely to get bigger in the next decade.
"The window for a demographic bonus was opened in 2012 and will be closed in 2036, with the peak happened in 2021," BPS Head Suhariyanto said on Thursday.

"Young age group continues to decrease, due to a decrease in the number of births," he said.
The 2020 Census data showed the population between 0 to 14 years old has dropped to 63 million from 69 million over the past decade. On the other hand, the number of people above 65 years old rose to 16 million from 12 million over the same period.

1611288867967.png


Sonny Harry B. Harmadi, the chairman of the Indonesian Population Coalition, a think-tank group that supports government population programs, said the Covid-19 pandemic presented a real challenge for Indonesia to benefit from the demographic dividend, as many people lose their jobs.

"The demographic bonus is a potential that must be transformed into an economic and health bonus. This transformation can only happen if the population in productive age really do something productive," Sonny told the Globe's sister publication Suara Pembaruan.

Yusuf Rendy Manilet, a researcher at think-tank institution Center of Reform on Economics (Core), warned that the demographic bonus would turn into a demographic burden over the next two decades should the country fail to reach a sustainable income level before its population growing old.

"Indonesia still needs high economic growth to support the changing economic structure," Yusuf said.
Many economists have suggested Indonesia must grow at least 7 percent a year to reap its demographic dividend. The $1-trillion economy was growing at a pace of around 5 percent a year before the pandemic. This year, the government expected the economy to expand by 4.5 to 5 percent, after shrinking by an estimated 1.1 percent last year.

"This demographic bonus can be very good or bad, depending on the government policies. In addition to improving the country's talents, government policy in job creation will also be essential in supporting these demographic changes," Yusuf said.

 

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