What's new

Opinion The Afghan endgame

fatman17

PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Apr 24, 2007
32,585
98
38,698
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Opinion The Afghan endgame

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Shamshad Ahmad

America's Afghan war is in its tenth year and Washington still doesn't seem to have a plan to end it. It has been one of the costliest wars lasting longer than the Second World War. There is no sign of a finale soon coming to this unwinnable war that has not gone beyond retribution and retaliation. No wonder people in the US and the European countries are sick of this conflict and want their troops to be out of the war theatre.

To mollify this sentiment, the US is working on alibis of all sorts. The one agreed at the last NATO summit in Lisbon envisages limited withdrawal from Afghanistan in July as a prelude to a transition plan, with an eye to ending their combat mission in Afghanistan by 2014. According to the Lisbon Declaration, the transition process was on track and, by the end of 2014, Afghan forces will be assuming full responsibility for security across their country. In the Afghan context, that is easier said than done.

The Lisbon decision was qualified with a caveat that "the transition would be conditions-based, not calendar-driven. In his concluding remarks, President Obama also clarified the intent of the NATO decision on withdrawal by 2014 by stressing that "it is a goal to make sure that we are not still engaged in combat operations of the sort that we're involved with now," but "it's hard to anticipate exactly what is going to be necessary." He added, "We are much more unified and clear about how we're going to achieve our ultimate end-state in Afghanistan."

However, the Obama strategy spells out no long-term "end-state" and only aims at "setting the conditions" for a small but unspecified number of US troops in July 2011. An unclassified strategic policy review released by the White House on Dec 16 was cautious in claiming operational gains in the war. The assessment found "substantial improvement in the international training of Afghan army and police forces and increased cooperation by Pakistan's military in targeting insurgents on its side of a porous border," but admitted that "recent gains in the south remain reversible."

Whatever it's real intent and content, the Afghan endgame in its present form shows clear divergence in NATO and US positions. America's NATO allies are looking for a military exit from Afghanistan, limiting their presence in the war-ravaged country beyond the stipulated timeline only to a supporting role in nation-building. On its part, the US does not rule out a military role for its forces in Afghanistan even beyond 2014.

Vice President Joe Biden was in Kabul and Islamabad last week on a mission to assess the ground situation preparatory to the scheduled limited withdrawal in July this year in the run-up to the 2014 deadline. His talks in both capitals were described as useful and constructive, though each side had its own narrative of the areas of "concern" in the US withdrawal plan.

While the US wants Afghanistan and Pakistan to do more to facilitate the transition, there are serious doubts and apprehensions in both countries on the very viability of the whole process. For them, the US withdrawal is not the issue. They would welcome it. The issue of concern to them is the premises on which the execution of the transition is based, in complete disregard of the Afghan realities.

The foremost reality is that the Afghans have a fierce sense of independence, and have never been pacified by foreign forces. The post-Soviet chaos and the post-9/11 US-led military campaign both have only deepened the Afghan ethnic divide. The experience of centuries, especially of the last two decades, should make one thing abundantly clear. No reconciliation imposed from outside will work in Afghanistan, and no exit strategy will succeed by further deepening the ethnic divide in this war-torn country.

Henry Kissinger, who opposes any time-bound US withdrawal, sees the Afghan reality in its true character. In his view, Afghanistan is a nation, not a state in the conventional sense, and any exit strategy must be based on the historic reality that the writ of the Afghan government has traditionally been confined to Kabul and its environs, leaving the rest of the country to be run by local warlords or tribal influentials as almost semi-autonomous regions configured largely on the basis of ethnicity, dealing with each other by tacit or explicit understandings.

Historically, for reasons of its difficult geography and multiple ethnicities, the country has rarely been able to achieve a strong central government. Now to expect President Hamid Karzai to create a modern central government within a given timeframe is not realistic. Given the structure of his society based on personal affinities and tribal traditions, the demand for him to deliver in matter of months is beyond his capacity. The country is too large, the ethnic composition too varied, and the population too heavily armed. No army or police force without genuinely reflecting the ethnic reality can deliver in this scenario.

Another lesson from history is that no military occupation for an indefinite period has ever worked. Also different theatres of war require different approaches. Iraq's "Anbar" blueprint will not work in Afghanistan. Gen Petraeus must understand that any plan that precipitates intra-Afghan conflict as part of his anti-Taliban strategy will seriously jeopardise the reconciliation process and throw this ill-fated country in another fratricidal civil war. It would be a dangerous mistake which will not be without grave implications for both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Washington must understand that the Afghans are not the only victims of the Afghan tragedy. Pakistan as the key frontline state in the last Afghan war suffered irreparably in multiple ways in terms of millions of refugees, socio-economic burden, a culture of drugs and guns, rampant terrorism and protracted conflict in its border areas with Afghanistan, and now as its pivotal non-NATO ally in the war on terror is waging a full-scale war on its own territory.

The US may have its own political compulsions in the run-up to next year's presidential election but both Afghanistan and Pakistan have suffered for too long and cannot afford another cataclysm. The effectiveness of their role and capability in this process will suffer if other conflicts and disputes continue to engage and divert their attention and resources.

Whatever the end-game, durable peace in Afghanistan will remain elusive as long as Pakistan's legitimate security concerns in the region remain addressed. Pakistan has already staked everything in support of this war and is constantly paying a heavy price in terms of violence, massive displacement, trade and production slowdown, export stagnation, investor hesitation and a worsening law and order situation. It is also suffering the consequences of US insensitivity to Pakistan's legitimate concerns about India's preponderant role in the region, especially its nuisance potential in its backyard.

A coercive and, at times, accusatory and slanderous approach towards Pakistan and its armed forces and security agencies is both reprehensible and counterproductive. Instead of using Pakistan as an easy scapegoat for their own failures in this war, the US and its allies must accept the reality that Afghanistan is an area of fundamental strategic importance for Pakistan. If the Soviet presence in Cuba almost triggered a nuclear war in the early 1960s, India's continued ascendancy in Afghanistan will remain a danger of no less gravity to the already volatile security environment of this nuclearised region.



The writer is a former foreign secretary. Email: shamshad1941@yahoo. com
 
how america ends afghanistan is a very serious issue,for US,pakistan,india and most importantly afghanistan.

if it leaves the country entirely like the soviets i dont think karzai will last long,maybe like najibullah.

bin laden will keep hiding with his location unknown,same goes for ayman al zawahiri and mullah omar.

one thing is for certain pakistani military better hold tight in NWFP,waziristan because with zilch american presence there's going to be heavy fighting within the afghan clans i doubt the tribe's are ever going to accept democracy.ISI better play its cards right here.

overall i dont see a 9/11 happening in US again,but central asia will be a hot zone.iran,pakistan,afghanistan,india.

what i am curious to know is what move russia plays in the afghan endgame.
 
what i have seen is as the war has continued the probability of bin laden in american hands keeps going down.

and terrorism is not going to go away,i may sound pessimistic but its going to stay and all we can do is try to limit its influence and impact.sadly we better accept it that its permanent atleast for a large part of the future and by that i mean a very long time.

i dont know how wrong or right i am but its better to leave afghanistan alone its like quicksand the more you shove yourself in the worse it gets.

writing all this i think when my some of my countrymen say both india and china are developing its going to be cold war between them i better wish this not happen and warm relations exist.one cold war wreaked havoc for our generation what did it give us-north korea,afghanistan,al qaeda,taliban.another one will wreak havoc but worse is only we asians will suffer.

war is worse than hell,wish our future generations never get to see it.
 
how america ends afghanistan is a very serious issue,for US,pakistan,india and most importantly afghanistan.

if it leaves the country entirely like the soviets i dont think karzai will last long,maybe like najibullah.

bin laden will keep hiding with his location unknown,same goes for ayman al zawahiri and mullah omar.

one thing is for certain pakistani military better hold tight in NWFP,waziristan because with zilch american presence there's going to be heavy fighting within the afghan clans i doubt the tribe's are ever going to accept democracy.ISI better play its cards right here.

overall i dont see a 9/11 happening in US again,but central asia will be a hot zone.iran,pakistan,afghanistan,india.

what i am curious to know is what move russia plays in the afghan endgame.

Boris No disrespect, but please dont live in a fools paradise. Bin Laden is dead and has long since been dead. It is a medical fact that a man with renal failure cann ot survive in the barren out doors of Afghanistan without dialysis.
Araz
 
Boris No disrespect, but please dont live in a fools paradise. Bin Laden is dead and has long since been dead. It is a medical fact that a man with renal failure cann ot survive in the barren out doors of Afghanistan without dialysis.
Araz

he might be i dont rule it out but there has been no such disclosure by any close source.as i said for those who were with him nobody might know what happened to bin laden.
 
Boris No disrespect, but please dont live in a fools paradise. Bin Laden is dead and has long since been dead. It is a medical fact that a man with renal failure cann ot survive in the barren out doors of Afghanistan without dialysis.
Araz

While bin Laden is useful to the Americans have no worries CIA will provides him the best of care even in the caves some where near Langley do not believe me here is the proof

Bin Laden threatens France - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

The leader of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, has called for the withdrawal of French troops from Muslim lands in exchange for the release of hostages, in an audio message.

Referring to French hostages being held in Niger, the speaker on the tape, who sounded like Bin Laden, says their release depended on moves by their own government.

He says France will pay dearly for its policy in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

"President Nicolas Sarkozy's refusal to remove his forces from Afghanistan is nothing but a green light for killing the French hostages," Bin Laden says in the recording, broadcast on Al Jazeera on Friday.

"We repeat the same message to you: The release of your prisoners in the hands of our brothers is linked to the withdrawal of your soldiers from our country."

This is the second tape that Bin Laden, believed to be hiding in the mountainous border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan(Langley Virginia to be precise), has released an audio recording attacking French policy and linking the French presence in Afghanistan to the kidnapping of its nationals in Niger.

Seven foreigners, including five French nationals, were kidnapped in Niger in September, with the group's north African wing Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claiming responsibility.

AQIM also claimed responsibility for two Frenchmen found dead last week after a failed rescue attempt in Niger, but the group did not say how the men died.

Following the kidnappings last year, an AQIM spokesman, Salah Abi Mohammed, said in an audio message: "We inform the French government that the mujahedeen will later transmit their legitimate demands."

The September kidnapping was an escalation of hostilities between AQIM and France.

AQIM killed 78-year-old Frenchman Michel Germaneu last July after French commandos took part in a failed raid to free him.

France has eight hostages held across the world, five held by AQIM in Niger, two in Afghanistan held by the Taliban, and one in Somalia.

Bin Laden's last audiotaped message to France, released on Al Jazeera in October, attacked France's planned ban on full-face Islamic veils, a subject also latched on to in reported demands made by the AQIM kidnappers for its repeal.

In August 2009, al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahri, criticised France over what he called its hatred for Muslims and issued a list of historical grudges he said Muslims should feel for France's colonial actions in the Middle East and Africa.
 
The US might pull out a few troops here and there but a am pretty sure we can see a US presence in afghanistan for decades.......the main purpose will be to set up terror-militant groups to destabilize China Pakistan,Iran and CAR.......off course all in the names of "freedom".
 
While bin Laden is useful to the Americans have no worries CIA will provides him the best of care even in the caves some where near Langley do not believe me here is the proof

Not even worth addressing other than that it is sad there are so many people who think like you do.

Of course, it's possible it's all a giant plot to steal all the oil in Afghanistan.

Oh wait, there's no oil there... Hmm.
 
There is no end to it, its going to be perpetual war forever as has always been the case with the Afghans.

Sooner or later Americans will lose the favor of the Afghans and they will turn on them and thats how it will end, which has also always happened. For now the thing holding the American/Afghan alliance is their mutual tendency to blame Pakistan. As Pakistan gets itself out of the Afghan mess the Americans and the Afghans will turn on each other.

There is no peaceful end to this. Violence begets violence...
 
Wouldn’t it be fair to clearly understand what the mission outlines and how the region has progressed before jumping to a conclusion? The US went to Afghanistan to accomplish a mission by eliminating the terror network and to help bring peace and stability to the nation. President Obama has stated over and over that we will stay until the goal is accomplished and the Afghan forces are capable of protecting their nation. It is crucial for the safety and stability of Afghanistan, that Afghan security forces are well trained and equipped in dealing with the Taliban and other terrorists in the region. Henceforth, it is equally important for a prosperous and secure Pakistan that the Taliban in Afghanistan are controlled and stopped from crossing the border into Pakistan and vice versa.

http://cache2.asset-cache.net/xc/97...B144985FAC9547259B745F9B11FD2E30A760B0D811297

Our dedication to help the Afghan nation rebuild in sectors of defense, health, infrastructure, education will remain intact. Defense Secretary Gates assured that, “We're not just going to throw these guys (Afghan security officials) in the swimming pool and walk away.”

Obama Administration Says 2011 Afghan Withdrawal Timeline May Slip - ABC News

The people of Afghanistan are able to witness the sacrifices made by the US and NATO forces in leading them towards prosperity and democracy. The progress in the region assures the people of Afghanistan the country is moving in the right direction and the rise of new opportunities lays the foundation for them to build upon! In 2006, only 36 schools were operating in the Uruzgan Province and now 250 schools have opened with more than 1,100 teachers and 425 trainees. Are you aware the Lashkar Gah cotton factory in Helmand Province recently reopened? The factory’s reopening restores 175 jobs, and is expected to create up to 225 more new jobs in the coming months

Progress in Afghanistan Highlighted by Business Growth, Job Creation and New Infrastructure Projects

More females are attending schools, job growth, new factories and a rising economy is leading the nation towards prosperity. Afghanistan, once a country with one of the highest maternal and infant mortality rates in the world has a new women’s health clinic in Paktika.

Afghanistan Seeks To Further Reduce High Maternal Mortality Rate - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010

The US has clearly outlined its agenda in Afghanistan for the near future. The US and NATO forces will begin withdrawing in accordance with an agreement with the Afghan Government and with the completed training of the Afghan Security Forces in 2014. Afghan Security Forces are receiving the proper training to independently protect their people and serve the common good. Our phased withdrawal from Iraq provides an excellent example of our commitment to a phased withdrawal from Afghanistan.

http://www.navytimes.com/xml/news/2...cy_091409/091409_afghanistan_training_800.JPG

Afghan security forces and military will receive training in counterinsurgency and security so that we can relinquish control to them. Also, we do not want history to repeat as was the case of Afghanistan after Soviet Union’s defeat, when our complete withdrawal left a power vacuum in the country with no proper security or governance. We know the result that came from such move. Hence, our drawdown in Afghanistan will not be the end of our support to the Afghan government and people, but the beginning of a new phase in our relationship with that country. This time our commitment will be long standing so that we can maintain the trust we have built with the Afghans who do not want to be left at the mercy of Taliban’s atrocities again.

LCDR Speaks,
DET, United States Central Command
U.S. Central Command
 
Not even worth addressing other than that it is sad there are so many people who think like you do.

Of course, it's possible it's all a giant plot to steal all the oil in Afghanistan.

Oh wait, there's no oil there... Hmm.

but future oil pipe lines from the CARS!
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom