I used to think like you, but I have since refined my views. Political Islam being popular is not a sign to me that Islam is in a good state or that Islam is cherished. We can agree that Islam is used for benefit by many of these movements and by many governments as well. And then on a general level, ie the ordinary people, they talk about Islam more and are more aware of social issues in the Muslim world, but it's more to do with it being trendy or part of identity. Islam may look like it's growing or flourishing, until you look deeper into human psychology and understand why it has relevance in peoples lives or political movements. Then you realize not many people's characters or decision making is affected by Islam or the Prophet's way of life. If that was the case, the Muslim world would be different. I don't care if Europe has a Muslim majority in the future, it will not make me feel any different.
That being said, Islam is not under any threat. It is still a huge part of culture in Muslim nations and Arab nations and is a big part of peoples lives. No one will forget about it anytime soon. It will appear to be alive but it is not, if you observe the character of people. There are character flaws that can't be ignored but it's too late to fix as the majority have them. Character to me is a better qualifying determinant of whether Islam is flourishing or not. Others may look at it from different perspective.
Anyway, I have to go now, always a good discussion as usual. It's probably difficult to understand me because I understand things better than I can explain them. I need to work on that, lol.
You raise some good points as usual. I think that it would not be too far-fetched to conclude that it is a bit of both. As for people pretending to be overly religious in order to score brownie points, it is something that has always been the case. It is human nature. May I refer to the Sahwa movement and many of its members (not all of course) and supporters and their "competition" about who is the "better" Muslim or more correct and who is wrong. This is human nature as you say. It's not only confined to religion but political views, ideological and many other areas.
Also if you have any interest about such topics you should read about the ulama in the Islamic world throughout the ages and become familiar with "palace clergy" and "independent scholars". If you take a look at history it was mostly the independent scholars that started trends or who challenged status quo (the establishment). For instance if reading about Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab al-Tamimi you will become familiar with this "fight" and how different his teachings are interpreted today by modern-day clergy (who serve an entire state) from back then.
I think that we can easily conclude that the average person in KSA, Arab world and Muslim world is more familiar with their religion (better living standards, much higher literacy rates, many more different sources of information etc.) than before and when that happens you will always have various camps. People who initially doubted will tend to doubt more while others will strengthen their beliefs. Or otherwise.
Honestly, I have reached a point where I understand that there will never be a consensus about anything (almost) in this world and that people will have to make their own minds up and decide how they want to follow Islam or any other religion for that matter. I can have my own views and my own idea of how I would like to see Islam applied in KSA or the Arab and Muslim world by large or elsewhere.
BTW the most sincere Muslims are those that are far away from the spotlight and who are not part of environments where religion can be misused for various reasons be they political, economic or other reasons.
Most people in KSA and the Arab world and dare I say Muslim world belong in that group but of course their views, interpretations, views of how Islam should be applied in the modern era differs, but I believe that they all want to see Islam as a aid for humans and the society rather than a burden or just an empty old tradition that they are following because their family and ancestors do/did so.
Those are indeed complicated topics and you will have people (Muslims, past and current clerics) who will claim that secularism and Islam are not in conflict while others think that women driving should not be allowed as this gives women an opportunity to engage in harmful activities. Using that logic, I ask, where to draw the line?
Anyway English is not my mother tongue and I am writing posts like this one rather quickly. What we are discussing basically are personal views and how we look at things. In reality it is difficult to either disprove or prove our theories or views. It depends on interpretation really. However what is sure is that the topics that we are discussing are highly complex and although I will claim that I have knowledge about Islam I am by no means any scholar. Such people usually spend their entire life studying Islam and all (or most) of its aspects.