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Morgan Stanley say China is in a strong position, so 'trade tensions will likely stay with us'

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Morgan Stanley say China is in a strong position, so 'trade tensions will likely stay with us'
Mon 13 May 2019 01:17:41 GMT
Morgan Stanley on why trade tensions will persist.

China's current position seems stronger compared to last year

PBoC adviser Ma Jun called the impact of US tariffs on the Chinese economy "controllable"

  • arguing that China has made bigger tax cuts than the US in recent months
  • coupled with loosening monetary policy
  • could help support the domestic economy and boost market resilience in the face of external shocks
China's stronger position may make it a more resilient negotiating partner, suggesting the trade tensions will likely stay with us for some more weeks.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/mo...n-so-trade-tensions-will-likely-stay-20190513
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chin...s-080439580.html?soc_src=hl-viewer&soc_trk=tw

China Exporters Reel as U.S. Tariffs Imperil World’s Supply Hub
BloombergMay 13, 2019
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(Bloomberg) -- “I’m lost and perplexed,” said Chinese furniture maker Ben Yang as he reeled Friday from news that U.S. tariffs on his products were hiked to 25% from 10%. “We probably have to switch to making something else or shut down altogether.”

Furniture makers like Yang’s Sunrise Furniture Co., based in the industrial heartland of Dongguan in southern China, already had wafer-thin profit margins after years battling rising labor and other costs. A Bloomberg Economics analysis of almost 1,000 companies in major export sectors found "not many" can survive tariffs of 25%.

That raises the specter of substantial disruption to China’s dominant role in the global supply chain with painful adjustments rippling across the world after President Donald Trump escalated the trade war last week. China’s best hope is that it can soften the blow by selling more to the rest of the world and in its rapidly expanding home market.

“The U.S. tariff hike threatens to dislodge China from the global supply chain,” said Chua Hak Bin, a senior economist at Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. in Singapore. “The current China-centered supply chain will likely break up and shift towards Southeast Asia and disperse more widely across the globe.”

For cable maker Jiangyin Haocheng Electrical Appliance Wire and Cable Co. based in the east coast province of Jiangsu, Trump’s tariffs “have thrown everything into uncertainty” said marketing manager Ellen Lee.

Thin Margins

“We only have a profit margin of 10% -- it’s so thin that we can’t reduce prices any more," she said in a telephone interview. Her only comfort was that most of her competitors are also based in China and so everyone will be hit.

Taizhou Jinba Health Technology Co. in Zhejiang province on the east coast sells half of its brightly-colored hair dryers and curling irons to the U.S. The 25% tariff hike will slash that share to about 30%, according to sales representative Ryan Tao. With a profit margin of 20% to 30%, the company will reduce prices by 5% to 10% to keep customers, he said.

That puts them at the top of the companies Bloomberg Economics examined. Fewer than 60 companies out of 1,000 listed exporters in the study had profit margins higher than 25%. Three hundred had profit margins of more than 10%, and the rest were below that.

Increasing tariffs to 25% on about $200 billion of goods will reduce China’s exports by 2.7%, drag on growth by 50 basis points over the next two to three years, and cause 2.1 million jobs to be lost, said Liu Ligang, chief China economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong in a May 10 note.

U.S. Exposure

Still, exports to the U.S account for around a fifth of China’s total and Deutsche Bank AG estimates that China’s industrial output overall has only a five percent exposure to the U.S. market.

Chinese production serving the rest of the world is five times more important than the supply chain serving the U.S., Deutsche Bank China economist Zhang Zhiwei in Hong Kong said last year. The key issue is whether U.S. tariffs drive out supply chains from China that serve other countries and history suggests they will not, he said.

But companies will still have to adapt.

“Global supply chains will be reshaped, with the likely relocation of clusters and producers to avoid tariffs,” said Zhuang Bo, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard. “Trade frictions would deter business investment in China or incentivize companies to reallocate capacity to other regional economies or back to the U.S.”

Long-term Threat

The long-term threat for China is how its role as the core of the world’s supply chain holds up. Tariffs of 25% are set to give that probably its biggest ever test, with the Trump administration today poised to announce details of its plans to impose more tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in trade. Beijing hasn’t yet announced any details of its own plan to retaliate.

Some Chinese firms will dodge Trump’s latest blow as they have already shifted production overseas. Wenzhou Changjiang Automobile Electronic System Co. in Zhejiang province will not be hurt because it set up a factory in Brazil years ago and its China production serves only the domestic market, says sales manager Vincent Ren.

“Our China factory is running day and night to catch up with the local orders,” said Ren, whose company makes car electronics. “We are increasingly focusing on the domestic market.
 
Vendors in Yiwu see little impact from China-US trade conflict

By Xie Jun in Yiwu and Huang Ge in Beijing Source:Global Times Published: 2019/5/13

Vendors see little impact from China-US trade conflict

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A view of a retail store in Yiwu, East China's Zhejiang Province last year. Photo: IC


Twists and turns in US-China trade talks are having a much milder effect than expected on businesses in the Yiwu International Trade City in East China's Zhejiang Province, one of the nation's best-known small commodity markets, traders there told the Global Times on Monday.

It's quite unlike the situation in the financial markets.

"In general, the trade disputes don't affect small commodity buyers in Yiwu that much," Zhang Jiying, who runs six Real Star umbrella shops in the facility, said.

On Monday afternoon, one of her shops was bustling. Two buyers from Mexico were choosing among the hundreds of umbrellas on display. According to Zhang, this one shop gets about seven or eight groups of overseas clients on average each day.

Zhang said she currently only has about five US clients, compared with hundreds in some European countries. So far, she has not been asked by any of her US clients or intermediate trading companies to change her prices because of US tariff increases, she said.

But even if it happened, it wouldn't cause her much loss as her clients are widely scattered all over the world. "It's characteristic of Yiwu small commodity traders that we rarely depend too much on one or several markets. We don't put all our eggs in one basket, so that even there's trouble with one market because of unpredictable factors like political fluctuations, our business won't be affected too much," she said. She sells umbrellas to buyers in more than 100 countries and regions, Zhang said.

US officials on May 10 increased an existing 10 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese products to 25 percent, breaking a truce reached by the leaders of the two countries in December 2018. The tariff increase covers almost everything from daily necessities to leather products.

The US also threatened over the weekend to slap a 25 percent tariff on almost all the remaining $325 billion worth of goods imported from China, according to media reports.

Chen Lixiu, owner of Junxi Bags, a handbag shop in the trade city gets about 5 percent of her orders from the US. All of her bags are exported. She said that because the proportion going to the US is not high, her losses are limited because of the tariff increase.

Sharing costs

According to Chen, her profits have fallen by about 1 percent on sales to the US because of the tariff increases. "The additional costs ... are shared all along the industry chain. Our US clients have asked us to lower export prices, while also raising prices at which the products are sold to their end customers. We are also beating down the prices sought by the manufacturers. It's likely everyone has earned a little less under the current situation," Chen told the Global Times.

She said that as a seller who depends on exports, she has to accept the situation and make compromises to keep her business going. She also said she won't reject US clients because of the tariff changes.

Many Yiwu merchants are modifying their business models to cope with the rising uncertainties, not only stemming from the China-US trade dispute but also from the slowdown in the world economy.

For Zhang, the solution lies in the expansion of overseas markets, especially European countries along routes of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has facilitated her business in terms of shipping and other conditions.

She's also put a lot of effort into updating her products, enhancing their quality, making them look better, and registering her brands in overseas countries so that the products can enter relatively high-end markets in overseas countries.

Avoiding dependence

According to Zhang, the US companies have shown a tendency to have Chinese businesses to do cheap, low-end original equipment manufacturing (OEM) for their own brands, something that she has resisted. "For one thing, doing OEM work, which usually means making high volumes and low profits, often leads to overdependence on certain markets. Second, the values of products would be very low, which I don't want to see."

Some merchants in Yiwu have also taken steps such as turning to imports or expanding customer sources to cope with trade pressure, they told the Global Times recently.

Song Guoyou, director of Fudan University's Center for Economic Diplomacy, told the Global Times on Monday that small traders in Yiwu should not only focus on the US market.

They could expand to other countries and regions such as markets along the BRI routes and in Europe and Japan, Song noted.

"Chinese businesses are expected to negotiate with their US buyers to see if the US companies can shoulder the burden of tariffs," he noted.

Gao Lingyun, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of World Economics and Politics, also said that Chinese central and local governments can help small businesses hedge the pressure of US tariffs by further reducing taxes and fees, as well as improving the domestic business climate.

Newspaper headline: At Yiwu, it’s business as usual

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149731.shtml



Most likely not that quick.

Even banana and pasta crises with Europe lasted longer.

This one lasting shorter would be an insult to the seriousness of the case :D
 
China is the world biggest retail market, so we are the biggest manufacturer and consumer at the same time. US can't readily find replacement of China made products, many of which are only made in China, and many of US made goods are gonna be tariffed and US products are easily replaced by the ones from other countries. so who'lll suffer more is very obvious .

Even China also suffers, but we can tough it out but Trump will lose his reelection when his base votes are being hit the worst by this trade war, so in the end it's all worth it for China.
 
China is the world biggest retail market, so we are the biggest manufacturer and consumer at the same time. US can't readily find replacement of China made products, many of which are only made in China, and many of US made goods are gonna be tariffed and US products are easily replaced by the ones from other countries. so who'lll suffer more is very obvious .

Even China also suffers, but we can tough it out but Trump will lose his reelection when his base votes are being hit the worst by this trade war, so in the end it's all worth it for China.

China is not a big enough market to consume all the goods it produce.

Chinese made goods is only going to get more expensive in the US. Its not going to disappear. Unless someone can produce it cheaper.

I don't see how US can suffer more than china. End of the day US is the customer, china is the seller.
 
How ? Almost all US economic experts admit that, how do you calculate? China is also a customer, a big customer, the world biggest retail market second to none.

Yes, but you produce your own goods but cannot consume it all.

If the US does not consume it then who will ? Nobody else is big enough to do that.
 
Yes, but you produce your own goods but cannot consume it all.

If the US does not consume it then who will ? Nobody else is big enough to do that.
We have a world to sell, and much of the trariffs will be paid by US customers anyway cause US can't a a viable replacement. that's the reason after a whole year trade war with US, China only sees healthy growth in both foregin trade volumes and surplus.
 
We have a world to sell, and much of the trariffs will be paid by US customers anyway cause US can't a a viable replacement. that's the reason after a whole year trade war with US, China only sees healthy growth in both foregin trade volumes and surplus.

You are already selling to the world. There is no more new customers to gain and you are losing your LARGEST customer.

Its a bit silly to claim you are irreplaceable. Everything and everybody is replaceable. The only question is how soon.
 
End of the day US is the customer, china is the seller.

This is for goods.

For services, US has a trade surplus with China.

China has yet to start looking at it seriously.

In the final analysis, cutting soybean imports from US did not raise prices for China as it quickly managed to find alternative sources.

The US, too, has to do the same: They need to find alternative sources for the goods that no longer sourced from China. I doubt their capacity doing that.

If you look at trade numbers, US exports to China declined more than five times more than (in percentage) China China's exports to the US.

This suggests, US importers keep buying, and the tariffs are mostly been compensated by the end customers.
 
You are already selling to the world. There is no more new customers to gain and you are losing your LARGEST customer.

Its a bit silly to claim you are irreplaceable. Everything and everybody is replaceable. The only question is how soon.
Emerging eoconies are going up fast and US 's global share is declining fast, you can have your claim but we only see the facts and figures, after a years trade war with US and China sees the result, that's part of the reason why China becomes tougher and no willing to sign a deal.
 
You are already selling to the world. There is no more new customers to gain and you are losing your LARGEST customer.

The world is bigger than what China can sell. There are potential markets that have yet to open up.

Besides, US is not the LARGEST customer.

Its a bit silly to claim you are irreplaceable. Everything and everybody is replaceable. The only question is how soon.

India is replaceable, too. The question is if it came to the point of being important enough to be replaced with something else.
 
This is for goods.

For services, US has a trade surplus with China.

China has yet to start looking at it seriously.

In the final analysis, cutting soybean imports from US did not raise prices for China as it quickly managed to find alternative sources.

The US, too, has to do the same: They need to find alternative sources for the goods that no longer sourced from China. I doubt their capacity doing that.

If you look at trade numbers, US exports to China declined more than five times more than (in percentage) China China's exports to the US.

This suggests, US importers keep buying, and the tariffs are mostly been compensated by the end customers.

True, but US imports from china after high tariffs is not a sustainable model.

Also US is the only economy in the world who can just print more $ if they run out of it. China cannot do that.

Its an uneven contest despite all your bravado.

For e.g. US can subsidize US goods and dump it around the world.

Emerging eoconies are going up fast and US 's global share is declining fast, you can have your claim but we only see the facts and figures, after a years trade war with US and China sees the result, that's part of the reason why China becomes tougher and no willing to sign a deal.

It will take a decade for Emerging economies like India to match up to the US and even then since our per capita income is low, we will probably produce our own goods rather than import from china.

You need a nation with a large economy and a very high per capital income to be a good market. US is irreplaceable.
 
I am surprised China has not simply increased tarriffs on Apple products. I remember when the US tech stocks crashed when there was a rumour this could happen.

There are still many cards China can play, Trump assumed it would be over by now.
 

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