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Kenneth RapozaSenior Contributor
Markets
I write about business and investing in emerging markets.
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Granted, India’s budget always makes U.S. investors in India skittish, so this is not exactly a shocker. The undperformance of India could have brought investors back on pricing alone. There are some pro-market standouts in this year’s budget. However, for every tax cut, there seems to be a tax increase. At least one of those increases will turn off foreign investors.
The new budget gradually reduces corporate taxes but increases marginal income tax rates. It lowers barriers to foreign investment but raises tariffs on imported goods and hikes taxes on foreign portfolio investors, an obvious negative.
The budget included some concrete steps to deal with bad debts at state banks but threw no bones to the agricultural sector, which is stagnant.
The Modi government has promised to ease labor laws, making public sector land available for private industry and new privatizations in the first 100 days of his second term. Investors should wait for specifics and timelines.
India's new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Her new budget for fiscal year 2019 raises taxes on foreign investors of Indian securities.
MANISH SWARUP/ASSOCIATED PRESS
One government-affiliated economist told TS Lombard that Modi is subject to various pulls and pushes on the policy front, but is clear about the need for economic growth and structural reform.
A newspaper editor who strongly supports Modi told Dubey that real reform will occur only when it is forced on the country by an economic crisis—and that India was due for one, Dubey wrote in a report to clients this week.
“Investors should await clarity in the coming months on what steps the government will take to ease labor laws, reform the banking system and privatize state-owned enterprises,” writes Dubey, TS Lombard’s political analyst for India.
One asset up for grabs is Air India.
Dubey says investors in India should be prepared for “a continuation of past policies, namely a mix of reform, state control and ... populism.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/07/24/modi-off-to-a-shaky-start-in-india/#55e7d1e944c8