My previous assumption is correct... They were calculating 1.2 trillion dollar economy based on 8% GDP grown in terms of PPP.
But I believe bangladesh has the potential to maintain 10-12% GDP growth in the next 20 years if everything goes well, more investment on infrastructure, power and on education can be made.... Lets see what will happen next.... but can any 1 tell me what is the expected per captita and total gdp of both pakistan and india in terms of both ppp and nominal terms by 2030. I just want to compare what will be the bds relative position by that time... with 10% year on year gdp growth up to 2030 bangladesh will have a economy of around 2 trillion dollar and per capita will be around 11000 to 11500 in terms of PPP
A future GDP figure of a country is not really calculated on the assumption of a maximum possible growth per year for many many years. If it is done in that way, the GDP figure will touch the distant moon in only a few dozens of years.
I think, even an 8% SUSTAINABLE growth is a difficult thing to acihieve continuously for many years, considering that our bureaucrats and planners are very inept. Today's BD GDP depends mainly on agriculture and textiles. Agriculture will soon to reach its zenith, because there is a shortage of land. I, of course, believe that agriculture can be further increased by raising the YIELD per acre of land. But, this has also its limit.
We are depending too much on textile export. This labour-intensive product is cheap abroad because our currency has been kept weak artificially. A $20 billion textile export may force the exchange value to become $1=Tk.55 or less. Our textile export will get a beating then, because the Europeans will start going to other countries with cheaper prices.
So, our economy should shortly be geared to technology-intensive industries, and we should be producing many industrial goods in the country. But, investment is shy not because there is a shortage of money in the Banks, but because there are bottlenecks like shortage of power and lack of physical infrastructure. In a situation like this when all the conditions for rapid industrialization are still to be fulfilled, it is pre-mature to imagine a steep rise of GDP.
Building of physical and social infrastructures are time consuming and costly. Some of the money is borrowed from international funding agencies. But, the bulk must be financed internally generated wealth. But, then the wealth base also cannot be enlarged without infusion of new capital. So, it becomes a typical case of chicken and egg - which one has first come into existence.
