Kabul Government and India to spoil peace efforts?

[CrazyZ]

https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-recalls-envoy-over-khan-remark/4851481.html

Strong possibility that the Kabul government and India will sabotage and spoil Pakistan's peace efforts. The USA and NATO will get caught in the middle....but they are on there way out in either case. The northern alliance will never make peace with the Taliban...they would lose billions in looted western aid and drug money. Is a new civil war brewing?

 

[Path-Finder]

yes, they have started spoiling it already the right wing establishment in the US and the indians with their recent pulwama play was just that! pressurising Pakistan by engaging india.

But the attack on camp bastion/soharab few days after the indian adventure which has alot of silence from these circles for some reason. No one is talking about the attack on that massive base. it seems to have caused some uneasiness behind the scenes.

 

[KhalaiMakhlooq]

does anyone know if the peace talk to form afghan government is for the taliban? i.e. are they trying to form taliban government? its confusing.

Did Imran Khan mean form a new government of taliban when he said new interim government, because i dont think he could say that but my head is saying to me what else could that mean since who else would he mean.

im literally gonna have a heart attack because we spent 18 years fighting talibin and now 18 years later we done a full u-turn and arrived back at fkin taliban which is a joke so what the hell was the whole point of the whole thing.

why have i lost 18 years of my life, i want a refund.

 

[ziaulislam]

yes, they have started spoiling it already the right wing establishment in the US and the indians with their recent pulwama play was just that! pressurising Pakistan by engaging india.

But the attack on camp bastion/soharab few days after the indian adventure which has alot of silence from these circles for some reason. No one is talking about the attack on that massive base. it seems to have caused some uneasiness behind the scenes.

https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-recalls-envoy-over-khan-remark/4851481.html

Strong possibility that the Kabul government and India will sabotage and spoil Pakistan's peace efforts. The USA and NATO will get caught in the middle....but they are on there way out in either case. The northern alliance will never make peace with the Taliban...they would lose billions in looted western aid and drug money. Is a new civil war brewing?

I doubt peace will happen ..as India and northern warlords have everything to loose

So one of the three possibility
1. USA packs up without northern alliance
2. USA stays
3. India steps in..!

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Hakiki Afghans are enough to take care of the NA thugs and Indians!!! President Trump is in no mood to burn more US $s on this good-for-nothing losers!!! By the by, even the US Deep State has now conceded touching Trump is equal to touching her Deep Nation...

 

[Path-Finder]

I doubt peace will happen ..as India and northern warlords have everything to loose

So one of the three possibility
1. USA packs up without northern alliance
2. USA stays
3. India steps in..!

Russia's role in this conflict is still not openly discussed. This is my theory, A delay might happen for the US in leaving because as we know that aren't going to leave on polite terms. But the Russians are making a comeback in a reverse 1980's. With all the time in the world for them and not rushing anything.

The Taliban are not in a hurry! Time has no meaning for them in this conflict. To please india the Yanks have made Pakistan an adversary so let them enjoy their coupling.

 

[CrazyZ]

2 and 3 wont happen. The USA is done with this war, mentally and emotionally. India has seen what happened to USSR, USA/NATO and they know they would get it 1000x harder....no boots on the ground.....they will provide weapons, training and money.

I'm not sure how the Kabul government as currently constituted will survive. I think the Kabul Government and ANA could split into various factions. Ghani and any pro Kabul Pathans will be abandoned in Kabul and left to the Taliban. There loyalties may be bought though and they could change sides. I hope this is the case since Kabul is much larger it was in 90's.....no body wants a blood bath.

The old northern alliance factions (Uzbek, Tajik, & Hazara) will take as much ANA weapons as possible and harden there ethnic regions.....I've heard this is already occurring.

From here I see:
1) A full blown civil war that the Taliban will win but not completely (the Tajiks will retain a small independent enclave), repeat of the 90's
2) A partitioning of Afghanistan (not very realistic..many factions would oppose including the Taliban)
3) A loose federation of different factions with a weak central government...no real executive, just a loya jirga. Each region rules itself.

Wild Card Option:
4) A Military dictatorship. A faction within the ANA would launch a coup and eliminate the Kabul government as the USA leaves. Most likely would be a Tajik faction since they run the ANA.... Unless ISI can bribe and back a Pathan general to do it first.

I think 3) or 4) are the best options for fast peace. However, it looking like 1) is the most likely too happen.

 

[CrazyZ]

Russia's role in this conflict is still not openly discussed. This is my theory, A delay might happen for the US in leaving because as we know that aren't going to leave on polite terms. But the Russians are making a comeback in a reverse 1980's. With all the time in the world for them and not rushing anything.

The Taliban are not in a hurry! Time has no meaning for them in this conflict. To please india the Yanks have made Pakistan an adversary so let them enjoy their coupling.

Russia is chilling. Laughing at the Americans...other then weapons they wont really get involved.

 

[maximuswarrior]

2 and 3 wont happen. The USA is done with this war, mentally and emotionally. India has seen what happened to USSR, USA/NATO and they know they would 1000x harder....no boots on the ground.....they will provide weapons, training and money.

I'm not sure how the Kabul government as currently constituted will survive. I think the Kabul Government and ANA could split into various factions. Ghani and any pro Kabul Pathans will be abandoned in Kabul and left to the Taliban. There loyalties may be bought though and they could change sides. I hope this is the case since Kabul is much larger it was in 90's.....no body wants a blood bath.

The old northern alliance factions (Uzbek, Tajik, & Hazara) will take as much ANA weapons as possible and harden there ethnic regions.....I've heard this is already occurring.

From here I see:
1) A full blown civil war that the Taliban will win but not completely (the Tajiks will retain a small independent enclave), repeat of the 90's
2) A partitioning of Afghanistan (not very realistic..many factions would oppose including the Taliban)
3) A loose federation of different factions with a weak central government...no real executive, just a loya jirga. Each region rules itself.

Wild Card Option:
4) A Military dictatorship. A faction within the ANA would launch a coup and eliminate the Kabul government as the USA leaves. Most likely would be a Tajik faction since they run the ANA.... Unless ISI can bribe and back a Pathan general to do it first.

I think 3) or 4) are the best options for fast peace. However, it looking like 1) is the most likely too happen.

Highly unlikely. I don’t think the US can cut and run like this. The US is divided. The deep state wants to remain and still fantasize of propping up India as a counterweight to China. That obviously isn’t happening, but it is a wish.

There was only one guy, namely Trump, who could have made this happen. The warmongers in the US won’t allow him to reach a deal.

 

[CrazyZ]

Highly unlikely. I don’t think the US can cut and run like this. The US is divided. The deep state wants to remain and still fantasize of propping up India as a counterweight to China. That obviously isn’t happening, but it is a wish.

There was only one guy, namely Trump, who could have made this happen. The warmongers in the US won’t allow him to reach a deal.

Most Americans want to cut and run. 70% of veterans that fought in Afghanistan want the USA to leave....they have accepted it was a waste of their blood, sweat, and effort.

Its a few folks at the top with professional stakes and idiot pundits at think tanks that want to stay.

 

[macnurv]

With release of Muller report, Trumps position had actually strengthened. He wants to leave Afghanistan and Syria but his generals and the military establishment is trying their best to create hurdles. Lets see which side wins here, so far the American deep state successfully thwarted most of his withdrawal plans.

On our side we must prepare for any eventuality, ensure that all borders are sealed and strictly control any and all traffic coming from Afghanistan. We should also speed up sending back Afghan refugees, they are a security threat.

 

[maximuswarrior]

Most Americans want to cut and run. 70% of veterans that fought in Afghanistan want the USA to leave....they have accepted it was a waste of their blood, sweat, and effort.

Its a few folks at the top with professional stakes and idiot pundits at think tanks that want to stay.

Yes, the ordinary Americans and the veterans who fought in Afghanistan want out, but not the deep state.