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“It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession Unavoid

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Dec 10, 2009
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Weakness in leading economic indicators has become so pervasive the Economic Cycle Research Institute now predicts a new recession is unavoidable.

"The vicious cycle is starting where lower sales, lower production, lower employment and lower income [leads] back to lower sales," co-founder Lakshman Achuthan declares in the accompanying video.

Whereas Achuthan said the jury is still out in late August, the weakness in leading economic indicators — and ECRI uses a dozen for the U.S. alone, he notes — has become a "contagion" that is spreading like "wildfire."

Although the recovery has been "subpar" by nearly every measure, Achuthan refutes the idea the economy never got out of recession in the first place. "Just because it looks and feels a certain way doesn't mean it's a recession," he says. "You haven't seen anything yet. It's going to get a lot worse."

It's too soon to predict just how bad it's going to get, but he expects another spike in unemployment and further expansion of the federal government's $1 trillion deficit. This forecast has huge ramifications for the 2012 election and the already struggling U.S. consumer and Achuthan says a "mild" recession is the best-case scenario.

By now you may be wondering what separates ECRI's recession call from the myriad other recession calls out there. First, ECRI's primary raison d'etre is predicting recession and recovery calls. Second, and more importantly, The Economist reports ECRI has never issued a "false alarm" on a recession call, meaning many of the Chicken Littles currently declaring "the sky is falling" might actually be right this time around.


Source:-

“It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession Unavoidable | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance








Check out the link for the video. Pretty awesome stuff.
 
Another recession in the US ?

Ok you got it . but how will we trade money ? Just lets have each other's word for it . Save this page.

No need to bet, if you were smart you would know that US has not been able to pull out of the recession in the first place.....what they are talking now...is a double dip....
 
Lakshman is a smart guy, and ECRI has a good track record in recession prediction. I am preparing myself for it. US & Europe are certainly on ropes... so to an extent China, which has its indicators either slowing down a bit. This is not a good news for anyone.

---------- Post added at 04:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:06 PM ----------

No need to bet, if you were smart you would know that US has not been able to pull out of the recession in the first place.....what they are talking now...is a double dip....

It is not a double dip, at least technically. In Yahoo Finance! where Lakshman appeared he said, that a recession every two-three years is normal before 80s. It is return to normal, a recession followed by short expansion (2-3 years) and then recession.
 
^^^^^^^^ Uncle Tom is going to get us all fracked.
he is single handedly going to do to the country what
the enemies couldnt accomplish.
I stocked up on silver a while back.....................
Even early this year, i was talking to a guy in Chicago from atop notch accounting firm,
he said it is gonna hit hard....... very hard.
 
Lakshman is a smart guy, and ECRI has a good track record in recession prediction. I am preparing myself for it. US & Europe are certainly on ropes... so to an extent China, which has its indicators either slowing down a bit. This is not a good news for anyone.

---------- Post added at 04:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:06 PM ----------



It is not a double dip, at least technically. In Yahoo Finance! where Lakshman appeared he said, that a recession every two-three years is normal before 80s. It is return to normal, a recession followed by short expansion (2-3 years) and then recession.


False, Economics 101 would have taught you that recession occurs not every 2-3 years but after a much more time....the last one was the Dot Com bubble bust in the late 1990s......and before that in 1980s.........but the recession of 2008 has been the biggest since the depression of 1930s......and it shows no signs of reeling.....economists and analysts are basing their results on the current sorry state of affairs with regard to unemployment, manufacturing, housing, consumer spending etc..........recessions do occur and it's sign of healthy economy and as Adam Smith put it, there are measures that automatically correct it (the invisible hand) however, not every 2-3 years...........i didn't say the double dip is there.....all i am saying is that economic indication is pointing that way...and if things remain the way they are......then double dip is very much a reality...
 

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