Is India’s economy stalling because population growth is slowing?

[FuturePAF]

For a long time, population growth and the associated increase in consumption has driven economic growth. If according to the Lancet India’s fertility growth has slowed to 2.1 (replacement levels), will India’s economic growth slow down? At which point, India’s average age will start to increase and the large population will be a burden rather then a blessing in the economic sense.

Is India getting Old before it gets rich? And what lessons can Pakistan learn from India’s situation?

The following video was made before the coronavirus and the 4-11% drop in Indian GDP this year, and the associated mass layoffs. What impact will that have on fertility/GDP growth prospects for India?

@16:35

 

[Dark1]

India needs to come down to 400 -500 m from 1.3 b.

 

[FuturePAF]

India needs to come down to 400 -500 m from 1.3 b.

Unless there is a catastrophic event or series of events, That is unlikely to happen.

 

[Dark1]

Unless there is a catastrophic event or series of events, That is unlikely to happen.

You mean a virus or something ?

 

[FuturePAF]

You mean a virus or something ?

A war or mass genocide. Although on further reflection it is possible for India to go down to 500-700 million the natural way; less babies and old people dying off at the current life expectancy but it will take 2-3 generations or 50-80 years. By 2100, it is possible India could be half its current population if the current trend continues. But the percentage of older people will be much higher, similar to Spain or Italy, if not worse like Eastern European countries.

Does India have a backup plan to population growth based economic growth?

 

[waz]

For a long time, population growth and the associated increase in consumption has driven economic growth. If according to the Lancet India’s fertility growth has slowed to 2.1 (replacement levels), will India’s economic growth slow down? At which point, India’s average age will start to increase and the large population will be a burden rather then a blessing in the economic sense.

Is India getting Old before it gets rich? And what lessons can Pakistan learn from India’s situation?

The following video was made before the coronavirus and the 4-11% drop in Indian GDP this year, and the associated mass layoffs. What impact will that have on fertility/GDP growth prospects for India?

@16:35

India does have an older population now compared to younger countries with a median age of 28. I don't think the impact will be great in the next ten years, but after that who knows. It does give time for India to consolidate and establish markets that are not reliant on younger labour. But this is a developing country.

 

[ziaulislam]

people dont understand population pyramide which is very important
numbers are not the pyramid is

a 1 billion population with 300 million old people cant be equal to 1 billion with 100 million old people..

the current environmental castrastropy is more doing of govt(and people) refusal to accept climatic change as an important issue on global scale rather than population

look at ozone layer disaster, the world came to together and see how it was fixed..

if the world today decides to ban petro chemical-related plastics and give road map to renewables(hydro-solar-nuclear-wind) the global disaster can easily be migitated..

solar developed due to interest in it, we need similar investment and interest in nuclear power, battery technology and specific funds for invetsment in hydro through out the world