Iran may cut off oil export to EU next week

[Abu Zolfiqar]

good. let them taste how it tastes to bring economic difficulties to another country. I hope this bill gets approved sooner.

you do know that it's just stabbing yourself in the foot, right?

it's a tough posturing, but it's only that

 

[VCheng]

releasing oil from federal reserves has a global effect of reducing prices but i haven't heard this happening for a while...and the oil prices just keep rising

Prices at the pump are not prohibitive to economic growth yet, that is why there has been no release of late.

Overall, the Fed is going to hold interest rates low for all of 2012 and beyond as long as inflation remains low. Energy prices are one important factor.

you do know that it's just stabbing yourself in the foot, right?

it's a tough posturing, but it's only that

Exactly.

 

[Imran Khan]

i don't see any problem largest user italy use 7% of there need from iran

 

[azbaroj]

But what if the taste is NOT equal? Then the premise of this strategy breaks down, does it not?

After six months only Iran have to taste . So let the test to Europeans also .

 

[VCheng]

i don't see any problem largest user italy use 7% of there need from iran

After six months only Iran have to taste . So let the test to Europeans also .

Please see the charts above; they have an answer that you may not like.

 

[Arian]

i don't see any problem largest user italy use 7% of there need from iran

Correction. That means It's only 7% of Iran's oil exports, It doesn't mean it's 7% of Italy's oil imports. There's a big difference here.
18% of the Iranian oil is exported to Europe. From this number, 7% of it is exported to Italy. I don't know how reliable those information are, because it might be a bit old, but if we assume that Iran's oil production stands at 4.2 million barrels per day and 1.6 million barrels of this number are consumed internally, then Iran is exporting around 2.6 million barrels per day and around 182,000 barrels of this number is exported to Italy. something like that.

 

[Arian]

you do know that it's just stabbing yourself in the foot, right?

it's a tough posturing, but it's only that

No, It's not. We'll lose less than $10 Billion US dollars for this decision (If we continue selling oil to Europe for the next 6 month our revenue will be 1/2 * $19Billion). That's not a big issue for us at all. It is worth hurting the European economy for that money instead, even if the impact is fairly neutralized and compensated.

 

[Serpentine]

i don't see any problem largest user italy use 7% of there need from iran

I think you still don't know the difference of percentage of exported oil and percentage of imported oil.Italy buys 7% of Iran's exports which provides 13% of country's total oil imports.

 

[VCheng]

No, It's not. We'll lose less than $10 Billion US dollars for this decision (If we continue selling oil to Europe for the next 6 month our revenue will be 1/2 * $19Billion). That's not a big issue for us at all. It is worth hurting the European economy for that money instead, even if the impact is fairly neutralized and compensated.

That makes more sense to me, but I am still skeptical it will be effective.

 

[Tshering22]

Why do I get the feeling that the Libya war that UK and France commenced was foreseeing something like this and getting "alternate" Libya into their pockets?

 

[Al Bhatti]

Energy production and imports - Statistics Explained

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/oil/doc/import/coi/eu-coi-2010-01-12.pdf

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/oil/doc/import/coi/eu-coi-2011-01-03.pdf

 

[pmukherjee]

But what if the taste is NOT equal? Then the premise of this strategy breaks down, does it not?

Actually, it doesn't even have to be equal. Even a slight addition to Europe's miseries or a slight worsening of its economy brought about by the stoppage of oil imports will have catastrophic and cascading effect. The public resentment in the worst hit nations which are already reeling under economic/financial/banking crisis may call the cohesion of the EU into question. Iran has been in the eye of the storm for some time now and they can take the pain for a while longer, but what about the ordinary Greek or Italian citizens? Do they care enough about Iran's nuclear programme to accept further burden on their pockets? If things go really bad, we may even have individual countries opting out of the EU embargo to make deals with Iran.

 

[Arian]

That makes more sense to me, but I am still skeptical it will be effective.

We agreed to wait and see what happens
Iran is already funding its proxies around the world and wasting billions of dollars to have few effective levers to use if need be. Now we might disagree on how effective these few levers, like Hizbullah, can be but they are surely a part of Iran's deterrence policy against the western military intervention. We're investing more than the amount of the money we will lose if we stop selling oil to the EU for our financial support to these groups and militants and if there are ways that we can lose some billion dollars but we prevent a catastrophic war we shouldn't hesitate to test those ways. If a war erupts, Iran's economic damage will be close to hundreds of billion dollars, so it makes sense to spend some few billion dollars to make it harder for the leaders to persuade the public for a war with Iran.

 

[Imran Khan]

 

[Imran Khan]

I think you still don't know the difference of percentage of exported oil and percentage of imported oil.Italy buys 7% of Iran's exports which provides 13% of country's total oil imports.

even though they already ban import from you now what you guys doing is face palm nothing more when customer refuse to buy now after 15 days of all drama iran come with this news lolz world i not stupid dear . we all know they are going to stop it and result will come out after 5-7 years of sanctions