Indian economy to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2015-16:World Bank

[Gessler]

Not unless

India sees in excess of 7.5% growth from 2016 onwards (I see this as increasingly likely though).

When will we reach $ 5 trillion and $ 10 trillion ??

TELL ME NOW !!

 

[MarkovChain]

Do you think nominal GDP of $ 3.5 trillion by 2020 is a realistic target at present growth rate?

Measuring things in nominal growth rate is not a good idea since inflation is not accounted for. Even real GDP is an issue since population growth is not taken into consideration.

If our real per capita gdp grows at 6% a year in real terms - we'll be doubling approx every 12 years. We should be targeting for more than this.

 

[Bobby]

things are changing fast in the governance of Modi

 

[Abingdonboy]

When will we reach $ 5 trillion and $ 10 trillion ??

TELL ME NOW !!

I think $5 Trillion is attainable by 2025 IMHO but, again, this is dependant on high economic growth (India really needs to see at leaf a decade averaging 8-9% growth).

Long term growth forecasts are notoriously inaccurate however- one simply cannot take into account all variables nor is it possible to actually see into the future and know what external factors will impact the Indian economy.


I agree with @MarkovChain however, GDP per capita should be the real measure for a country like India where the GDP in PPP terms can be massive but because of the vast population per capita income can be pitiful. From a report I read a while ago, I think India can have a GDP per capita rivalling those in the West by 2045-50.

 

[MarkovChain]

I agree with @MarkovChain however, GDP per capita should be the real measure for a country like India where the GDP in PPP terms can be massive but because of the vast population per capita income can be pitiful. From a report I read a while ago, I think India can have a GDP per capita rivalling those in the West by 2045-50.

India's GDP per capita measured in PPP stands at ~ $5400 while the west stands at ~45000. This would call for an annual increase of 9% every year "over and above" the increase in west's GDP PPP per capita. I really doubt it. End of this century looks a better deal for us.

 

[-1o1-]

Of Course one cannot Compare a Country Like Sri Lanka to Country like India. One is having population below poverty line than the entire population of African Subcontinent while other country constantly reducing it's poverty to less than 6%, and intend to become an advanced economy by 2030 you think having a larger population give country an edge. lol Sri Lanka have the similar population to countries like Malaysia and Australia. every statistics Sri Lanka far far ahead than any Country in the region. your most wealthiest state could not match to SL


Oh my god, have you gone school buddy. Tamilnadu?? one of the filtiest place to be. do you ever heard GDP Per Capita and GDP, do you know the difference of those two???.. Tamilnadu have population over 70 Million having GDP Per Capita of $1622 and total GDP of $120 Billion. Sri Lanka having 20.4 Million people and having GDP of $77Billion and GDP Per Capita of $3279.

SL's economy is 90% depended on India.

 

[Abingdonboy]

India's GDP per capita measured in PPP stands at ~ $5400 while the west stands at ~45000. This would call for an annual increase of 9% every year "over and above" the increase in west's GDP PPP per capita. I really doubt it. End of this century looks a better deal for us.

Sorry, I meant India's GDP per capita catching up to where the West's is TODAY (obviously more than acceptable in terms of living standards in India today). Of course the West will move on but they have certainly hit a plateau and many Western economies will be lucky to see GDP growth in excess of 1-2% these days.

 

[MarkovChain]

Sorry, I meant India's GDP per capita catching up to where the West's is TODAY (obviously more than acceptable in terms of living standards in India today). Of course the West will move on but they have certainly hit a plateau and many Western economies will be lucky to see GDP growth in excess of 1-2% these days.

We are also not taking into account technological improvements that could accelerate our growth - such as a renewable substitute for oil or ability to mine space for resources. Over a period of time, I think these silly border gaps will disappear and we will move forward as one unit. I'm being Utopian of course!

 

[Abingdonboy]

We are also not taking into account technological improvements that could accelerate our growth - such as a renewable substitute for oil or ability to mine space for resources. Over a period of time, I think these silly border gaps will disappear and we will move forward as one unit. I'm being Utopian of course!

In the very long term, perhaps (in a century or so) but I can only see conflicts increasing in the immediate to medium term (for the next century that is). Resources becoming ever more scarce and the world becoming ever more multi-polar will surely bring out our tribilastic nature as human beings once again. IMHO the writing is already on the wall for this....

 

[Established_1965]

Of Course one cannot Compare a Country Like Sri Lanka to Country like India. One is having population below poverty line than the entire population of African Subcontinent while other country constantly reducing it's poverty to less than 6%, and intend to become an advanced economy by 2030 you think having a larger population give country an edge. lol Sri Lanka have the similar population to countries like Malaysia and Australia. every statistics Sri Lanka far far ahead than any Country in the region. your most wealthiest state could not match to SL

lol, Africa is not a Subcontinent; its a continent! I think your referring to Sub Saharan Africa region. I find it funny when people compare Sahara region with a population of around 800 million with Indian population.

 

[MarkovChain]

In the very long term, perhaps (in a century or so) but I can only see conflicts increasing in the immediate to medium term (for the next century that is). Resources becoming ever more scarce and the world becoming ever more multi-polar will surely bring out our tribilastic nature as human beings once again. IMHO the writing is already on the wall for this....

True that resources are becoming scarce but scientists are also working on ways to use our available resources in the best possible way. It's a fight between egg-headed militants and the scientists - and thus far, scientists are winning.

 

[Abingdonboy]

True that resources are becoming scarce but scientists are also working on ways to use our available resources in the best possible way. It's a fight between egg-headed militants and the scientists - and thus far, scientists are winning.

Maybe I am too cynical but I don't see the scientists winning at this moment in time.

 

[Nova2]

Good for you but remember Sri Lanka is a tiny, tiny nation and growing from a low base. India growing at 2% will still add more GDP in real terms than Sri Lanka growing at 15%.

I don't know where from did he get that 8.4% figure from,as per IMF sri lanka is projected to grow at 6.5% in 2015. Yet i have asked him for a source,lets see what he come's up wid.

India's 6th richest city (Chennai) has a GDP equivalent to the entire Sri Lankan nation. Even many states in India with populations larger than Sri Lanka's are growing in the double digits.Comparing India and Sri Lanka is absurd and Sri Lanka's growth rate is nothing all too impressive to say the least.

9states to be specific. Comparing a state with a GSDP growth rate of 14.2%to a country with 7% growth rate isn't fair either,though for the fun sake , Haryan with a similar population is fast catching up,with a GSDP of $65bill with its GSDP growth at 13.8% twice that of 7% ,heck even Bihar is catchin' up with a GSDP of $60bill with GSDP growing at 17.3%. Note: Bihar's GSDP grew at 22.5% at an avg in the last 4yrs.Looks like BIMARU's are coming.let the bimaru's play with GDP now,Attkk(A.P,TG,TN,karnataka,Kerala) could attack'em when it comes to per capita and HDI.

 

[Nova2]

India's GDP per capita measured in PPP stands at ~ $5400 while the west stands at ~45000. This would call for an annual increase of 9% every year "over and above" the increase in west's GDP PPP per capita. I really doubt it. End of this century looks a better deal for us.

Really can't say,GDP(PPP) per capita stood at ~$4500 untill sep'14 now after revision it stands at $5400. Since the release of IMF global outlook '14 oct edition i had a question, how come GDP(PPP) projection for 2015 shoot from $5.5trillion(as projected by IMF itself untill sep'14) to $7.277 trillion after the release of IMF global economic outlook?
@Abingdonboy

 

[raveninthesky]

Going on with the argument said by few of Indian users here, so it can be say that countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, etc. and all the other countries which have less GDP than India currently and less population than India and yet regarded as advanced/Develop countries by the whole world, will be poor and less develop countries to Indians, because they have less GDP and less population than India?

Well some people even try to bring their states GDP Growth rates while we talking about Country's GDP Growth rate as whole. going by that argument one would say all the 9 provinces of Sri Lanka, where Eastern and Northern Province GDP grew by more than 20% and western province grew by 20% or so and so.

Basic calculation to measure how much country is wealthy is by dividing total GDP of that particular year by the total population of the particular country. with Sri Lanka having just 20.1 Million of Population and currently they posses a GDP which could give $3279 GDP Per Capita, where it put them in the Lower Middle Income Bracket, and intend to become upper middle income country by 2015/2016. while India GDP can give only $1500+. having the second largest population of the world, eventually India is automatically become the huge Market, it's not magic. and GDP nominal figures are not the way to measure how country is performing or what position they are in, whether they are poor, lower middle, upper middle, high income or advanced economy. India can annually achieve or grew their GDP by $300Billion or $400 Billion easily with the huge population India has. that $400Billion increase of GDP would be more than the total GDP of Countries like Malaysia, Singapore etc. so does it mean India is much develop than them? the biggest question in the end of the day is how much that increase of GDP would increase the GDP Per Capita portion.

HDI indexes may vary from state to state or in Sri Lanka scenario province to province. while we talking about at national level it is such a joke to mention states GDP level growth or HDI levels. big or small every country has potential to become wealthy and rich. for example, Singapore, which having 5 million people stuck in to a 716.1 km² land area having GDP worth of total GDP of Pakistan or Bangladesh. Sri Lanka by any mean not tiny, with total land area of 65,610 km² it is a medium size island and with a population of 20.1 Million people similar to population like Australia or Malaysia, it posses a huge potential. with literacy level is at 98% and posses a high HDI level and Sri Lanka has met the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of halving extreme poverty and is on track to meet most of the other MDGs, outperforming other South Asian countries. Whereas South Asia as a whole is on track or an early achiever for nine of the 22 MDG indicators, Sri Lanka manages this for 15 indicators.
it is not secret Sri Lanka's Economy growing at a rapid pace, than other Subcontinent countries, and it is definitely will reach so called advanced and wealthy category (According estimates by 2035).

the main reason why we lag behind from the rest of the regions in the world is not having mutual understanding and bond to each other. not having a thinking "we should stand together as a region and show the world who we are". that's what South East Asian countries, Asian tiger economies doing and what we are lacking.

Definitely India can become a huge Market to the world. but the problem is high growth rate. while India increasing their GDP on the other hand they are increasing their population as well. While Countries like China, who has the largest population of the yet performing far better than other country which holding record for the 2nd highest population and Market, the difference is commitment and strict policies and Vision which India lacks. so let Mr. Modi to guide your country few years, and we shall see the results