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India Races to Get Rich Before it Gets Old as Population Passes China

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India Races to Get Rich Before it Gets Old as Population Passes China​

Vrishti Beniwal, Shruti Mahajan, Eltaf Najafizada and Ruchi Bhatia, Bloomberg News

image.png

, Source: World Bank

(Bloomberg) -- A fleeting moment in western India on the evening of March 8 will remain etched in Nikita Punjabi’s memory forever: The first glimpse of her newborn daughter as the doctor held her up after delivery.

Aniket Rai, nervously waiting during the birth, cried tears of joy when the nurse told him he had a baby girl. “It was surreal feeling... Unparalleled. I cannot describe it really, it can only be felt.”
Their baby, Prisha — which means god’s gift — is but one of the millions born across India so far this year who have contributed to the historic milestone of passing mainland China’s population. That comes just a few years after India snatched the title of world’s fastest-growing major economy from its northern neighbor.

But labels alone won’t be enough for India to take over as the world’s biggest growth driver, just as having the most people wasn’t enough for China until it carried out economic reforms from the late 1970s.
Bloomberg Economics says India needs to advance on four broad fronts — urbanization, infrastructure, up-skilling and broadening its labor force, and boosting manufacturing — to fully cash in on its demographic dividend and reshape the global economy in the process.

“The country is young, English speaking and the rising labor force is already supporting the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative,” said Abhishek Gupta, senior India economist with Bloomberg Economics. “Geopolitical tailwinds are also helping.”

Urbanization
How quickly India boosts its proportion of city dwellers and whether it can create enough quality jobs to accommodate the shift carries crucial significance for its growth needs.
Over the period to 2040, India will likely add 270 million people to its urban population, according to the International Energy Authority.

The shift is already on display in India’s megacities. Shiny new apartment buildings dot the capital Delhi as the newly wealthy ramp up realty investments. A top developer recently sold $1 billion of luxury homes in three days in Gurugram, one of Delhi’s satellite cities.

But public services are still poor — India’s Supreme Court has even warned that air traffic controllers might be forced to steer planes around the massive garbage dumps on Delhi’s outskirts if they get any bigger.
Yukon Huang, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said India will need to follow the path of China and South Korea in making its cities modern and efficient. Over the past four decades, a four-fold increase in urbanization neatly “correlated with the increase in productivity of labor in both countries,” he said.

Infrastructure
For urbanization to pay economic dividends, infrastructure investment will be needed on a massive scale. There has been progress — since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election win in 2014, the number of domestic air passengers has roughly doubled and the national highway network expanded more than 50%.

On the technology front, India’s digital infrastructure is among the most advanced in the world. In just a few years, almost every Indian has received a national identity card — called Aadhaar — linked to everything from rental leases to bank accounts and social welfare benefits.

Among Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party’s most significant achievements has been forging a single economic zone from India’s messy federal and state taxes. That’s helped with revenue collection, which hit a high last year, providing funds for new airports, roads and the like.

But on other measures, China is still far ahead. Though India has some of the lowest phone tariff rates in the world, internet usage trails China, which has also zoomed past India on everything from air carrier departures to container port traffic.

“Infrastructure suffers from decades of underinvestment, a weak inter-modal system, over-reliance on roads for freight transport and inefficient work practices,” said Priyanka Kishore, economic director at IMA Asia, which runs leading peer group forums for Asia’s business leaders.

Education
Education is another stumbling block. Many degrees are essentially worthless and a skills mismatch has jeopardized growth. Half of all graduates in India are unemployable, according to a study by Wheebox, a group that advises businesses. Unemployment is stubbornly high at around 7%.

“India has a serious learning crisis,” said Shumita Deveshwar, India research senior director at TS Lombard.

India boosted educational spending by 13% this year, the highest ever, to 1.1 trillion rupees ($13.4 billion) and is aiming to improve digital education and address educational deficiencies.

But there is still much to be done, especially when it comes to female participation in the workforce. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of working women in India dropped from 26% to 19%, according to data compiled by the World Bank.

Though they make up 48% of the population, Indian women contribute only around 17% of GDP, compared to 40% in China. Closing the employment gap between men and women could expand India’s GDP by close to a third by 2050, which equates to nearly $6 trillion in constant US dollar terms, according to a recent analysis from Bloomberg Economics.

Manufacturing
Four decades ago, China and India were both largely agrarian-based economies. But as the Western world outsourced production of everything from toys to TVs and tools, China seized a moment that India missed. Today, manufacturing comprises more than a quarter of China’s economy, compared to just 14% for India.

Increasing rivalry between the US and China is giving Modi’s government a new shot at boosting its manufacturing share to a targeted quarter of GDP. And there are pockets of progress. Apple Inc.’s three key Taiwanese suppliers won incentives from India to boost smartphone production and exports. The California-based company now makes almost 7% of its iPhones in India, Bloomberg News reported recently, up from about 1% in 2021.

“The political and democratic set up in the country is more conducive for global investment than China,” said Sanjay Kumar Mohanty, a professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai.
But moving up the value chain won’t be easy. Labor laws are still restrictive and compared to nations like Bangladesh or Vietnam, India has been less successful in creating the highly-efficient industrial parks preferred by many global manufacturers.

Hope and Fear
Rapid progress on urbanization, infrastructure, human development and manufacturing will be needed for decades, not just years, as the population continues to swell. It’s expected to reach 1.67 billion by 2050 — that’s another 250 million people, or roughly the size of Indonesia.

Health care is just one illustrative pressure point. Today, India has about five hospital beds per 10,000 people. The ratio in China is about eight times that, and analysts say India will take decades just to reach the level where China currently stands.

The demographic window won’t be open forever either. India’s population could start declining in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100, according to UN estimates.

The UN’s base case sees China’s population at 1.3 billion by 2050. Unlike demographers, economists tend to avoid forecasting decades into the future, so it’s tough to find any estimates of India overtaking China’s GDP. But if India can keep growing at around 7% and its currency holds firm, it should zoom past Germany and Japan to a third place ranking by 2030.

For the Modi administration, there is no doubt this is India’s moment.

With 1.428 billion people, India has passed mainland China’s population, which stands at 1.425 billion, according to UN data released Wednesday. The nation will soon overtake China and Hong Kong combined.
“This is not just about beating our chest on rankings, in the end it is about providing a better quality of life for all Indians and also to create a system which allows for innovation, risk taking, entrepreneurship and so on,” said Sanjeev Sanyal, an economic adviser to Modi.

Baby Prisha’s parents are also optimistic.

“Our country is seeing such fast-paced growth,” said Rai, an assistant vice president at Barclays who plans to raise his family in the city of Pune. “It’s a great era for Prisha to have been born.”

 
Baby Prisha’s parents are also optimistic.

“Our country is seeing such fast-paced growth,” said Rai, an assistant vice president at Barclays who plans to raise his family in the city of Pune. “It’s a great era for Prisha to have been born.”

Awwwww... Her parents are optimistic. What will happen to their optimism when their daughter gets gang raped?
 
Few Indians might get rich. But India will never become rich.

North Indians, Gujaratis and Muslims will keep dragging it down.
 
The more things change, the more they stay the same in India.

Caste-ism will never change - let's just consider that factor.

Higher castes will never encourage education and upskilling for lower castes, such is their hate for the underclass in India.

It is in the interest of the higher castes to keep lower castes uneducated and dependent on the higher castes.

The status quo of higher castes will continue being what it is - the reasons for keeping things intact are varied, multifarious and too strong.

Ergo - India will always have a dearth of skilled manpower to transition into higher value addition manufacturing - unlike China.

In India - bright students never go into manufacturing, it is anathema to Indian families career choices.

Comparing China and India is like night and day. I have been to both places and have seen what the differences are - on technical skill and capability.

There is simply no comparison, the gap will not be filled in less than a couple of decades, counting on the Chinese sitting still.

I assure you - they won't.....
 

India Races to Get Rich Before it Gets Old as Population Passes China​

Vrishti Beniwal, Shruti Mahajan, Eltaf Najafizada and Ruchi Bhatia, Bloomberg News

image.png

, Source: World Bank

(Bloomberg) -- A fleeting moment in western India on the evening of March 8 will remain etched in Nikita Punjabi’s memory forever: The first glimpse of her newborn daughter as the doctor held her up after delivery.

Aniket Rai, nervously waiting during the birth, cried tears of joy when the nurse told him he had a baby girl. “It was surreal feeling... Unparalleled. I cannot describe it really, it can only be felt.”
Their baby, Prisha — which means god’s gift — is but one of the millions born across India so far this year who have contributed to the historic milestone of passing mainland China’s population. That comes just a few years after India snatched the title of world’s fastest-growing major economy from its northern neighbor.

But labels alone won’t be enough for India to take over as the world’s biggest growth driver, just as having the most people wasn’t enough for China until it carried out economic reforms from the late 1970s.
Bloomberg Economics says India needs to advance on four broad fronts — urbanization, infrastructure, up-skilling and broadening its labor force, and boosting manufacturing — to fully cash in on its demographic dividend and reshape the global economy in the process.

“The country is young, English speaking and the rising labor force is already supporting the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative,” said Abhishek Gupta, senior India economist with Bloomberg Economics. “Geopolitical tailwinds are also helping.”

Urbanization
How quickly India boosts its proportion of city dwellers and whether it can create enough quality jobs to accommodate the shift carries crucial significance for its growth needs.
Over the period to 2040, India will likely add 270 million people to its urban population, according to the International Energy Authority.

The shift is already on display in India’s megacities. Shiny new apartment buildings dot the capital Delhi as the newly wealthy ramp up realty investments. A top developer recently sold $1 billion of luxury homes in three days in Gurugram, one of Delhi’s satellite cities.

But public services are still poor — India’s Supreme Court has even warned that air traffic controllers might be forced to steer planes around the massive garbage dumps on Delhi’s outskirts if they get any bigger.
Yukon Huang, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said India will need to follow the path of China and South Korea in making its cities modern and efficient. Over the past four decades, a four-fold increase in urbanization neatly “correlated with the increase in productivity of labor in both countries,” he said.

Infrastructure
For urbanization to pay economic dividends, infrastructure investment will be needed on a massive scale. There has been progress — since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election win in 2014, the number of domestic air passengers has roughly doubled and the national highway network expanded more than 50%.

On the technology front, India’s digital infrastructure is among the most advanced in the world. In just a few years, almost every Indian has received a national identity card — called Aadhaar — linked to everything from rental leases to bank accounts and social welfare benefits.

Among Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party’s most significant achievements has been forging a single economic zone from India’s messy federal and state taxes. That’s helped with revenue collection, which hit a high last year, providing funds for new airports, roads and the like.

But on other measures, China is still far ahead. Though India has some of the lowest phone tariff rates in the world, internet usage trails China, which has also zoomed past India on everything from air carrier departures to container port traffic.

“Infrastructure suffers from decades of underinvestment, a weak inter-modal system, over-reliance on roads for freight transport and inefficient work practices,” said Priyanka Kishore, economic director at IMA Asia, which runs leading peer group forums for Asia’s business leaders.

Education
Education is another stumbling block. Many degrees are essentially worthless and a skills mismatch has jeopardized growth. Half of all graduates in India are unemployable, according to a study by Wheebox, a group that advises businesses. Unemployment is stubbornly high at around 7%.

“India has a serious learning crisis,” said Shumita Deveshwar, India research senior director at TS Lombard.

India boosted educational spending by 13% this year, the highest ever, to 1.1 trillion rupees ($13.4 billion) and is aiming to improve digital education and address educational deficiencies.

But there is still much to be done, especially when it comes to female participation in the workforce. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of working women in India dropped from 26% to 19%, according to data compiled by the World Bank.

Though they make up 48% of the population, Indian women contribute only around 17% of GDP, compared to 40% in China. Closing the employment gap between men and women could expand India’s GDP by close to a third by 2050, which equates to nearly $6 trillion in constant US dollar terms, according to a recent analysis from Bloomberg Economics.

Manufacturing
Four decades ago, China and India were both largely agrarian-based economies. But as the Western world outsourced production of everything from toys to TVs and tools, China seized a moment that India missed. Today, manufacturing comprises more than a quarter of China’s economy, compared to just 14% for India.

Increasing rivalry between the US and China is giving Modi’s government a new shot at boosting its manufacturing share to a targeted quarter of GDP. And there are pockets of progress. Apple Inc.’s three key Taiwanese suppliers won incentives from India to boost smartphone production and exports. The California-based company now makes almost 7% of its iPhones in India, Bloomberg News reported recently, up from about 1% in 2021.

“The political and democratic set up in the country is more conducive for global investment than China,” said Sanjay Kumar Mohanty, a professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai.
But moving up the value chain won’t be easy. Labor laws are still restrictive and compared to nations like Bangladesh or Vietnam, India has been less successful in creating the highly-efficient industrial parks preferred by many global manufacturers.

Hope and Fear
Rapid progress on urbanization, infrastructure, human development and manufacturing will be needed for decades, not just years, as the population continues to swell. It’s expected to reach 1.67 billion by 2050 — that’s another 250 million people, or roughly the size of Indonesia.

Health care is just one illustrative pressure point. Today, India has about five hospital beds per 10,000 people. The ratio in China is about eight times that, and analysts say India will take decades just to reach the level where China currently stands.

The demographic window won’t be open forever either. India’s population could start declining in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100, according to UN estimates.

The UN’s base case sees China’s population at 1.3 billion by 2050. Unlike demographers, economists tend to avoid forecasting decades into the future, so it’s tough to find any estimates of India overtaking China’s GDP. But if India can keep growing at around 7% and its currency holds firm, it should zoom past Germany and Japan to a third place ranking by 2030.

For the Modi administration, there is no doubt this is India’s moment.

With 1.428 billion people, India has passed mainland China’s population, which stands at 1.425 billion, according to UN data released Wednesday. The nation will soon overtake China and Hong Kong combined.
“This is not just about beating our chest on rankings, in the end it is about providing a better quality of life for all Indians and also to create a system which allows for innovation, risk taking, entrepreneurship and so on,” said Sanjeev Sanyal, an economic adviser to Modi.

Baby Prisha’s parents are also optimistic.

“Our country is seeing such fast-paced growth,” said Rai, an assistant vice president at Barclays who plans to raise his family in the city of Pune. “It’s a great era for Prisha to have been born.”




Haven't you received the memo from PDF indians yet? india is already a rich developed nation with thr best economy in the world....... :disagree:
 
india the land of rich wealthy endians sir we harve full sarpoart here in endia. ram ram modi ji.
 
The more things change, the more they stay the same in India.

Caste-ism will never change - let's just consider that factor.

Higher castes will never encourage education and upskilling for lower castes, such is their hate for the underclass in India.

It is in the interest of the higher castes to keep lower castes uneducated and dependent on the higher castes.

The status quo of higher castes will continue being what it is - the reasons for keeping things intact are varied, multifarious and too strong.

Ergo - India will always have a dearth of skilled manpower to transition into higher value addition manufacturing - unlike China.

In India - bright students never go into manufacturing, it is anathema to Indian families career choices.

Comparing China and India is like night and day. I have been to both places and have seen what the differences are - on technical skill and capability.

There is simply no comparison, the gap will not be filled in less than a couple of decades, counting on the Chinese sitting still.

I assure you - they won't.....
Let’s not forget that Muslims make up 14% of India’s population and things are only getting worse for them, which the BJP supporters deny but the world clearly sees. Keeping large segments of the population marginalized will retard India’s growth, which even officials in the BJP admit.

So, the effective (capable of actively participating) percentage of the population in India will still be limited by poor education and divisions. I also doubt india will have the cultural shift over the next 2 decades to become efficient in labor utilization they way China has to utilize its demographic dividend before it starts to decline in population, and then growth.


The west sees India has a source of growth in the services sector but not the manufacturing sector. Which has a limit to the amount of growth that can produce; because it is tied to demand in the English speaking west.

For Pakistan, a similar path will help get some growth initially, but long term, domestic manufacturing will also be needed to sustained growth. Perhaps partnering some Pakistani firms to provide the English language based services for Chinese companies (that set up some manufacturing in Pakistan) may help utilize the large English speaking labor force in Pakistan.

Also, I foresee China reforming its retirement system to extend the working lives of its people as life expectancy increases. The people won’t be happy but they will have to put up with it, similar what is happening in France.

From 2:30-4:00

(Btw; 4:00-5:00 is labor costs kept low by immigration; perhaps the Chinese SEZs under CPEC can provide the same for China without having to allow Pakistani immigration to China)

Lots of points in the following video, but the most interesting is at 5:00-7:32, but then especially what the BJP official says at 7:32-8:08)

All these videos are from the past few days. Btw there is also another


There is also a recent survey that mentions that India’s climate will limit its growth compared to China’s more temperate climate.

 
Last edited:
There is also a recent survey that mentions that India’s climate will limit its growth compared to China’s more temperate climate.


I can attest to this. Barring Eastern and Southern India (and maybe parts of the West) - North India is a baking oven (even in the shade), temperature in the summer routinely exceeds 50 degrees centigrade plus. Plus pollution levels in Delhi and Mumbai are sky-high....

You can hardly aircondition offices, forget about airconditioning manufacturing floors. Been there - seen all of it.

Good luck to UP, MP, Chattisgarh and Bihar people, that is all I can say.

These people are screwed.
 

India Races to Get Rich Before it Gets Old as Population Passes China​

Vrishti Beniwal, Shruti Mahajan, Eltaf Najafizada and Ruchi Bhatia, Bloomberg News

image.png

, Source: World Bank

(Bloomberg) -- A fleeting moment in western India on the evening of March 8 will remain etched in Nikita Punjabi’s memory forever: The first glimpse of her newborn daughter as the doctor held her up after delivery.

Aniket Rai, nervously waiting during the birth, cried tears of joy when the nurse told him he had a baby girl. “It was surreal feeling... Unparalleled. I cannot describe it really, it can only be felt.”
Their baby, Prisha — which means god’s gift — is but one of the millions born across India so far this year who have contributed to the historic milestone of passing mainland China’s population. That comes just a few years after India snatched the title of world’s fastest-growing major economy from its northern neighbor.

But labels alone won’t be enough for India to take over as the world’s biggest growth driver, just as having the most people wasn’t enough for China until it carried out economic reforms from the late 1970s.
Bloomberg Economics says India needs to advance on four broad fronts — urbanization, infrastructure, up-skilling and broadening its labor force, and boosting manufacturing — to fully cash in on its demographic dividend and reshape the global economy in the process.

“The country is young, English speaking and the rising labor force is already supporting the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative,” said Abhishek Gupta, senior India economist with Bloomberg Economics. “Geopolitical tailwinds are also helping.”

Urbanization
How quickly India boosts its proportion of city dwellers and whether it can create enough quality jobs to accommodate the shift carries crucial significance for its growth needs.
Over the period to 2040, India will likely add 270 million people to its urban population, according to the International Energy Authority.

The shift is already on display in India’s megacities. Shiny new apartment buildings dot the capital Delhi as the newly wealthy ramp up realty investments. A top developer recently sold $1 billion of luxury homes in three days in Gurugram, one of Delhi’s satellite cities.

But public services are still poor — India’s Supreme Court has even warned that air traffic controllers might be forced to steer planes around the massive garbage dumps on Delhi’s outskirts if they get any bigger.
Yukon Huang, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said India will need to follow the path of China and South Korea in making its cities modern and efficient. Over the past four decades, a four-fold increase in urbanization neatly “correlated with the increase in productivity of labor in both countries,” he said.

Infrastructure
For urbanization to pay economic dividends, infrastructure investment will be needed on a massive scale. There has been progress — since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election win in 2014, the number of domestic air passengers has roughly doubled and the national highway network expanded more than 50%.

On the technology front, India’s digital infrastructure is among the most advanced in the world. In just a few years, almost every Indian has received a national identity card — called Aadhaar — linked to everything from rental leases to bank accounts and social welfare benefits.

Among Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party’s most significant achievements has been forging a single economic zone from India’s messy federal and state taxes. That’s helped with revenue collection, which hit a high last year, providing funds for new airports, roads and the like.

But on other measures, China is still far ahead. Though India has some of the lowest phone tariff rates in the world, internet usage trails China, which has also zoomed past India on everything from air carrier departures to container port traffic.

“Infrastructure suffers from decades of underinvestment, a weak inter-modal system, over-reliance on roads for freight transport and inefficient work practices,” said Priyanka Kishore, economic director at IMA Asia, which runs leading peer group forums for Asia’s business leaders.

Education
Education is another stumbling block. Many degrees are essentially worthless and a skills mismatch has jeopardized growth. Half of all graduates in India are unemployable, according to a study by Wheebox, a group that advises businesses. Unemployment is stubbornly high at around 7%.

“India has a serious learning crisis,” said Shumita Deveshwar, India research senior director at TS Lombard.

India boosted educational spending by 13% this year, the highest ever, to 1.1 trillion rupees ($13.4 billion) and is aiming to improve digital education and address educational deficiencies.

But there is still much to be done, especially when it comes to female participation in the workforce. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of working women in India dropped from 26% to 19%, according to data compiled by the World Bank.

Though they make up 48% of the population, Indian women contribute only around 17% of GDP, compared to 40% in China. Closing the employment gap between men and women could expand India’s GDP by close to a third by 2050, which equates to nearly $6 trillion in constant US dollar terms, according to a recent analysis from Bloomberg Economics.

Manufacturing
Four decades ago, China and India were both largely agrarian-based economies. But as the Western world outsourced production of everything from toys to TVs and tools, China seized a moment that India missed. Today, manufacturing comprises more than a quarter of China’s economy, compared to just 14% for India.

Increasing rivalry between the US and China is giving Modi’s government a new shot at boosting its manufacturing share to a targeted quarter of GDP. And there are pockets of progress. Apple Inc.’s three key Taiwanese suppliers won incentives from India to boost smartphone production and exports. The California-based company now makes almost 7% of its iPhones in India, Bloomberg News reported recently, up from about 1% in 2021.

“The political and democratic set up in the country is more conducive for global investment than China,” said Sanjay Kumar Mohanty, a professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai.
But moving up the value chain won’t be easy. Labor laws are still restrictive and compared to nations like Bangladesh or Vietnam, India has been less successful in creating the highly-efficient industrial parks preferred by many global manufacturers.

Hope and Fear
Rapid progress on urbanization, infrastructure, human development and manufacturing will be needed for decades, not just years, as the population continues to swell. It’s expected to reach 1.67 billion by 2050 — that’s another 250 million people, or roughly the size of Indonesia.

Health care is just one illustrative pressure point. Today, India has about five hospital beds per 10,000 people. The ratio in China is about eight times that, and analysts say India will take decades just to reach the level where China currently stands.

The demographic window won’t be open forever either. India’s population could start declining in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100, according to UN estimates.

The UN’s base case sees China’s population at 1.3 billion by 2050. Unlike demographers, economists tend to avoid forecasting decades into the future, so it’s tough to find any estimates of India overtaking China’s GDP. But if India can keep growing at around 7% and its currency holds firm, it should zoom past Germany and Japan to a third place ranking by 2030.

For the Modi administration, there is no doubt this is India’s moment.

With 1.428 billion people, India has passed mainland China’s population, which stands at 1.425 billion, according to UN data released Wednesday. The nation will soon overtake China and Hong Kong combined.
“This is not just about beating our chest on rankings, in the end it is about providing a better quality of life for all Indians and also to create a system which allows for innovation, risk taking, entrepreneurship and so on,” said Sanjeev Sanyal, an economic adviser to Modi.

Baby Prisha’s parents are also optimistic.

“Our country is seeing such fast-paced growth,” said Rai, an assistant vice president at Barclays who plans to raise his family in the city of Pune. “It’s a great era for Prisha to have been born.”







Toliet seats for every one ?
 
Pakistan's population is growing twice as fast as India.

Bangladesh is growing slower.

I am more interested to know if we get rich before we get old.

Or do we keep exploding while we waste our time worrying about our neighbors.
 

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