Ceylal
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- Nov 28, 2012
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Government officials negotiate with a rebel delegation under United Nations patronage and in the presence of Red Cross members on December 11, 2018, at Johannesberg Castle, Rimbo, near Stockholm, Sweden. PHOTO / TT News Agency / Claudio Bresciani / via REUTERS.
A series of agreements, including an exchange of prisoners, and a "cease-fire" in the port city of Hodeida were concluded on 13 December between the warring parties. The rebels, marginalized in the past, have managed to negotiate on an equal footing with the Yemeni government. Decryption of Beirut daily L'Orient - Le Jour .
How does David resist Goliath? How can a small militia, virtually unknown only a few years ago, stand up to a coalition of several regional powers, led by the Saudi ogre and Gulf Sparta, the United Arab Emirates? A marginalized group that has become a key player in the Yemeni conflict, the Houthis are today seated at the same table as the delegation of President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi's government in Stockholm for peace consultations under the auspices of the UN.. Against all odds, these rebel fighters, who would be around a few thousand according to estimates, have managed their bet. In almost four years, the Arab coalition forces led by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which intervened in March 2015 in support of President Hadi, have only succeeded in dislodging the rebels from the provinces of Aden and Marib. Despite their striking power and their colossal means, they could not radically change the balance of power. The coalition is now mired in a war that has already killed 10,000, according to the UN. The absence of a strong army on the ground on which the coalition could rely, the lack of military experience of the Saudi army, the inclination for independence of South Yemen, and the strategic differences between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi partly explain this failure. At the same time, however, the extreme resistance of the Houthis, which relies on their seasoned knowledge of the field and an effective recruitment strategy, results.
The beginning of the sequence dates back to September 2014. Supporters of Ansarullah (another name for the Houthis meaning "The Partisans of God") create an alliance of convenience with former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to overthrow his successor and emerge triumphant. a fierce battle against government forces for the capture of the capital Sanaa, a victory crystallized by the flight of Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi who fled to Aden in the South, in January 2015. The front lines have little moved since: the north of the country is in the hands of the rebels, the South in those of the loyalist forces and the coalition. The group led by Abdel Malek Al-Houthi, who has managed to bring down Sanaa in just a few weeks, impresses with his ability and speed of action, while being helped by his allies.
Strong ties with Iran
Confined in the Yemeni highlands, their strong position today in the country is the result of long years of preparation and many wars against the regime of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh since the 2000s. "The leaders (Houthis ) are very good at organizing the military resistance, " explains L'Orient-Le JourCharles Schmitz, Vice President of the American Institute of Yemeni Studies and Professor at Towson University. Another major asset that allows them to swell their ranks, the rebels are supported by several tribes and forces loyal to Saleh until December 2017. "The Houthis have a solid hold on the tribes in the north of the country and in the capital, Sanaa. They also have the support of those who are dissatisfied with the Saudi and UAE intervention, and they bring together a lot of people who are not actively opposed to them, "says Schmitz.
The Houthis are now reaping the benefits of their close ties with Iran, a relationship that has been maintained since the 1990s. Unlike President Hadi, who is now completely dependent on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the Houthis are not in favor. as much as Tehran's obligation to provide political and military support. Since 2014, "coaches and strategists Hezbollah and the Iranians worked with Houthi and have supervised, which helped them take Sana'a" , already stressed in December 2017 The OLF Nadwa Dawsari analyst conflict Yemeni and director of the Center for Civilians in Conflict in Yemen."Iran has also helped the Houthis develop weapons technology, including missiles," she said.
The largest arms market in the world
A semiannual report by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, discussed on December 12 by the Security Council, reports on the discovery of new weapons, alleged to be of Iranian manufacture. According to the text, the UN official "examined two guided anti-tank missile launch containers, which the Saudi-led coalition had recovered in Yemen. He noted characteristics of Iranian manufacture and markings showing production dates in 2016 and 2017 " . While rebels regularly fire missiles at Riyadh from the border between the two countries, Guterres"Also examined a partially disassembled ground-to-air missile that had been seized by the Saudi-led coalition, and observed features similar to those of an Iranian missile , " the document said. Iran's support for the rebels, however, is not the only factor explaining their military expansion as they have also benefited from pro-Saleh members of the Republican Guard at the beginning of the conflict, allowing them access to military equipment. heavier. Yemen is also a hub in the region for the sale of arms, where the largest arms market in the world is located in Souk el-Thal.
The black market also allows Houthi feed their crates while they "control the market in their territories" , says Sama Al-Hamdani, Yemen analyst interviewed by The OLF . In the event that "they need money, they will close a gas station and sell oil nearby, on the black market, at a double or triple price. If there is a demand, they can easily control the supply, " she continues. "The remaining resources in northern Yemen - taxes, currency printing and manipulation of fuel markets - are dedicated to maintaining Ansarullah's workforce, including about $ 30 million a month in Iranian fuel donations.", reports Michael Knights, a researcher with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's military and security program, in an analysis published in September 2018 entitled "The Houthie War Machine: From Guerrilla Warfare to State Capture" .
Peace consultations
To ensure their visibility, the Houthis feed social networks with propaganda elements, including through their Al-Massirah television channel, while drawing inspiration from the Shiite martyrology used by Tehran and Hezbollah, to encourage their fighters to join forces. sacrifice for the cause. The Houthis, however, are of Zaydi denomination, a branch of Shiism, and do not follow the wilayet Al-faqih [supreme guide] which concerns only Twelver Shiism [majority in Iran]. "A mix of indoctrination, machismo, material livelihood has allowed the Houthi movement to have new fighters on nearly a dozen battlefields in Yemen for more than three years of war," he said in a statement. Mr. Knights' analysis."Ansarullah exploits the death of Houthi leaders, the nature of the foreign-backed Yemeni government, and the use of southern troops in northern Yemen to exploit the cultural engines and stimulate recruitment," he said.
Ali Abdullah Saleh's jacket upturn last December, which said he was ready to join President Hadi's forces before being killed by the Houthis shortly after [4 December 2017], weakened the rebels, while a part of the pro-Saleh forces joined the pro-Hadi camp. Despite the predictions of the experts, the episode did not inflict a violent blow to them as they managed to keep their grip on the north of the country and, especially, Sanaa and Hodeida, a large port city in the west of the country. A strategic location, Hodeida guarantees them privileged access to the Red Sea, while 70% of humanitarian aid passes through it. Loyalist and coalition forces launched the offensive last May to take control, but the operation moved in time as they are now stationed on the outskirts of the city.
With their success, the Houthis have become essential to end the war ravaging the country and starving millions of Yemenis. Guterres is expected today in Sweden to"encourage" the parties to continue the peace talks scheduled to close on the same day. While both sides exchanged a list of 15,000 names for a prisoner swap agreement last Tuesday, the issue of Hodeida's control remains thorny. If the UNhas offered to oversee the city, nothing is less certain about the willingness of the Houthis to agree to let go of the ballast without an offer from the Hadi government - and the coalition - to live up to their ambitions.
Julie Kebbi
KSA , the Goliath and the Ogre..I love the French humour
