Greater China unstoppable!

[Martian2]

Greater China Unstoppable!

For the first two months of 2015, China had a $120 billion trade surplus.
For Taiwan, the first two months yielded a $9 billion trade surplus.

For the year, China should have a merchandise trade surplus of $720 billion.
For this year, Taiwan's merchandise trade surplus will be $54 billion.

Altogether, the Greater China merchandise trade surplus is currently $65 billion per month (or $774 billion annually). I'm pretty sure this is a new world record. I can't remember a country that has ever recorded a 3/4 TRILLION trade surplus in one year. Under the One China Policy, Taiwan and China are considered one country.
----------

References.

China's exports post surprise drop in January - MarketWatch
"China's exports post surprise drop in January
Published: Feb 8, 2015 9:52 a.m. ET
...
China's trade surplus widened in January to $60 billion from $49.6 billion in December...."

China trade surplus hits new record as exports grow - BBC News
"China trade surplus hits new record as exports grow
8 March 2015

China's monthly trade surplus hit a record $60.6bn (£40.3bn) in February, as exports grew and imports slid back."

Taiwan Exports Fall Unexpectedly In February
"Taiwan Exports Fall Unexpectedly In February
3/9/2015 4:40 AM ET
...
In the first two months of 2015, a [Taiwan] trade surplus of $9.36 billion was recorded."

 

[Keel]

Greater China Unstoppable!

For the first two months of 2015, China had a $120 billion trade surplus.
For Taiwan, the first two months yielded a $9 billion trade surplus.

For the year, China should have a merchandise trade surplus of $720 billion.
For this year, Taiwan's merchandise trade surplus will be $54 billion.

Altogether, the Greater China merchandise trade surplus is currently $65 billion per month (or $774 billion annually). I'm pretty sure this is a new world record. I can't remember a country that has ever recorded a 3/4 TRILLION trade surplus in one year. Under the One China Policy, Taiwan and China are considered one country.
----------

References.

China's exports post surprise drop in January - MarketWatch
"China's exports post surprise drop in January
Published: Feb 8, 2015 9:52 a.m. ET
...
China's trade surplus widened in January to $60 billion from $49.6 billion in December...."

China trade surplus hits new record as exports grow - BBC News
"China trade surplus hits new record as exports grow
8 March 2015

China's monthly trade surplus hit a record $60.6bn (£40.3bn) in February, as exports grew and imports slid back."

Taiwan Exports Fall Unexpectedly In February
"Taiwan Exports Fall Unexpectedly In February
3/9/2015 4:40 AM ET
...
In the first two months of 2015, a [Taiwan] trade surplus of $9.36 billion was recorded."

Blood is thicker than water!

A place as small as Hong Kong is doing well too in the fiscal year (N.B. not trade surplus)

"HONG KONG: The Special Administrative Region of China is set to report a budget surplus of HK$7.7 billion for the last fiscal year, boosted by strong property and stock markets. This far exceeds the HK$1.2 billion Financial Secretary John Tsang predicted this time last year.
Hong Kong set to report budget surplus of HK$7.7b for FY2014 - Channel NewsAsia "

And for a even smaller Macau, the government usually have a surplus though there may be a little under performance as predicted in the fiscal year end

"According to the Financial Services Bureau, the fiscal surplus (the difference between what the government receives and spends) between January and October reached MOP85.7 billion, 0.04 percent less than a year ago.
Fiscal surplus under threat | Macau Business Daily "

Silk embroidery painting in Suzhou style
姚建萍 Yao Jianping

 

[Place Of Space]

Glad to see the news, good job.

 

[cirr]

That leaves out little Hong Kong and tiny Macau, both are jewels in the Chinese crown in terms of "sucking up" foreign exchanges.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Greater China Unstoppable!

For the first two months of 2015, China had a $120 billion trade surplus.
For Taiwan, the first two months yielded a $9 billion trade surplus.

For the year, China should have a merchandise trade surplus of $720 billion.
For this year, Taiwan's merchandise trade surplus will be $54 billion.

Altogether, the Greater China merchandise trade surplus is currently $65 billion per month (or $774 billion annually). I'm pretty sure this is a new world record. I can't remember a country that has ever recorded a 3/4 TRILLION trade surplus in one year. Under the One China Policy, Taiwan and China are considered one country.
----------

References.

China's exports post surprise drop in January - MarketWatch
"China's exports post surprise drop in January
Published: Feb 8, 2015 9:52 a.m. ET
...
China's trade surplus widened in January to $60 billion from $49.6 billion in December...."

China trade surplus hits new record as exports grow - BBC News
"China trade surplus hits new record as exports grow
8 March 2015

China's monthly trade surplus hit a record $60.6bn (£40.3bn) in February, as exports grew and imports slid back."

Taiwan Exports Fall Unexpectedly In February
"Taiwan Exports Fall Unexpectedly In February
3/9/2015 4:40 AM ET
...
In the first two months of 2015, a [Taiwan] trade surplus of $9.36 billion was recorded."

Wow that's huge, surplus (excl TW/HK/MC) last year was only $382 billion.

I guess growth of export to developing economies and a drop in commodity prices (e.g. oil, gas) contribute to this widening of trade surplus.

 

[TaiShang]

Why Greater China Is A Buy

• “Buy when there’s blood in the streets.”
  
  That was the sage advice of famed investor Bernard Baruch. It still applies, even after one of the
  worst months for Chinese stocks.
  
  China, and the growing region of “greater China,” though, is still worthy of your attention.
  
  As Chinese stock prices remain in negative territory, it’s a good time to ignore the Keynesian “animal spirits” of the market and pay attention to what China is doing.
  
  Greater China still offers a growing investment opportunity for the patient investor. Everything is relative in investing.
  
  Emerging markets stocks may offer a better value than U.S. stocks.
  
  
  The Shiller P/E Ratio, a gauge of how much U.S. stocks are priced relative to past valuations, is around 24.
  
  What does this mean? The average for this ratio is about 16 going back about 100 years.
  
  So using this benchmark, you can say that U.S. stocks are still pricey given past price levels — even after the “correction.”
  
  Here’s even more perspective: Before the crash in 2008, this ratio was around 26 and was at 30 on Black Tuesday in 1929.
  
  While this number is not an absolute measure — it’s not a red light signal to sell your stocks — it’s probably a good warning that prices are not cheap.
  
  Enter China with its significant correction of more than 25%.
  
  While I think it’s fair to say that Chinese investors were bidding up share prices with abandon, the Chinese government has intervened in a big way.
  
  The leaders of the People’s Republic have no interest in seeing the middle class get shellacked by stock losses. Their long-term plan is to build the middle class and a domestic economy.
  
  That means rising wealth, income and the ability to create financialsecurity.
  
  Elsewhere, the rest of the global economy needs China to keep feeding and supplying its populace with energy, raw materials and cash from exports.
  
  
• Institutions like the Federal Reserve and European Central Bankers are waiting with baited breath to see what China will do to manage its economy, which it’s been doing for more than 30 years.
  
  More Evidence Greater China is a Long-Term Buy
  
  While nearly every investment strategist is voicing caution over emerging markets, the long-term view isn’t all that dark.
  
  Although the global wealth manager UBS is underweighting emerging markets (relative to Europe and the U.S.), “we believe Asia will still outperform other emerging markets, as the current economic soft patch will pass.”
  
  Adds New Capital Insights:
  
  “We believe the correction in Chinese equities is at odds with China’s fundamentals. China’s economy is much healthier than at the time of the 1997 Asian crisis, with huge foreign exchange reserves (34% of GDP and the largest in the world at over $3.5 trillion), a healthy current account surplus (2.8% of GDP) as well as a moderate fiscal deficit (2.3% of GDP).”
  
  The sell-off also means that prices are much more favorable than they were before the correction. “Emerging equities have been cheap on average,” writes BNP Paribas, “but for us, this has been a reason not to underweight them.”
  
  Keep in mind that China’s leaders want their middle class to grow and prosper and have trillions in cash to help stabilize markets.
  
  Will this plan work long term when so many centralized financial ideas have failed in China?

Only history can answer that question.

In the meantime, don’t dump any emerging markets funds that hold China. Now might be the best time to buy.