govt rolls out Electric Vehicle policy

[The Accountant]

Do you think that anybody looking for a bike under $1000 will be travelling that much just for personal transportation? I'd say their portion will be in single digits.

A battery that will last for a 80km trip on a relatively light bike like most 150ccs are, will weight and cost less than a typical iron 150cc engine + accessories + tankage.

Cast iron block may only cost $10 with machining and other post-processing, but it will be accessories, and things like clutch, gearbox, injectors, sensors, valves, throttle body actuators, dynamo, and other electronics will be pushing the price close to $200. You can of course go for completely mechanical, carburated engine that will require maintenance every few months, and will have low power and very bad fuel economy, and that will slash the price by half, but even in Pakistan I saw people opting for more fancier 150ccs bikes.

2kwh battery pack costs just around $180-200 wholesale. And you just need a BLDC motor with simple controller for 48V. In total, a motive assembly for a "150cc analogue" will cost just about the same, but will be cheaper to assemble and you will have less worries about supply chain for parts.

Bikes for people doing actual cargo hauling or rickshaws are a different story though, they indeed need way more expensive hardware.

What I can say, even before China started to ban petrol bikes, a lot of people were switching to EV bikes even if they were of lesser performance back then. Most people looking for a below $1000 vehicle are not looking at performance at all. They will drive anything that moves for that price.

For them, EVs look as a way more practical alternative to petrol bikes in that segment just for their zero maintenance requirements, and cheaper "fuel."

You are right about daily commute bikes. 100 kms should be ok for normal routes. 80 Kms can be little short for city like Karachi.

My post was based on my own super sports bike so I didn't realize that my requirements are different then an average biker.

 

[Nilgiri]

Can't help but think if this is all because Honda haven't taken the leap into the market like it's competitors.

I suspect in time we will see autonomous cars become common place, but I think we're maybe 20-30 years away from that. The tech is there, the consumer confidence isn't, the will to take the risk isn't.

Electric vehicles are the future. I don't see a future where the vast majority of the vehicles on our roads are not electric. At the same time though, i think the way we travel will/should change too.

We need an intense focus on cheap public transport. We also need to kill the commute. Why are office workers commuting daily? I think remote working should be the go-to unless it's not an option.

I invite you to come to Canada and see the Nickel mines at Sudbury. While the climate alarmism goes at full speed and all the media attention + big govt tax-loving focused there, nasty things reminiscent of Mordor are afoot down here, largely kept away from prying eyes...and largely sequestered and quarantined for any actual debate/discussion....forget "science".

But I guess anything goes as long as we can save a 1 degree Celsius increase by some model...when other models earlier said there was going to be a huge grand ice age....with 95% "quote each other endlessly" "consensus" as well back then.

After all carbon dioxide which plants eat is the absolute enemy, heavy metal contamination is a good absolute friend. Just keep that "friend" hidden away.

 

[313ghazi]

I invite you to come to Canada and see the Nickel mines at Sudbury. While the climate alarmism goes at full speed and all the media attention + big govt tax-loving focused there, nasty things reminiscent of Mordor are afoot down here, largely kept away from prying eyes...and largely sequestered and quarantined for any actual debate/discussion....forget "science".

But I guess anything goes as long as we can save a 1 degree Celsius increase by some model...when other models earlier said there was going to be a huge grand ice age....with 95% "quote each other endlessly" "consensus" as well back then.

After all carbon dioxide which plants eat is the absolute enemy, heavy metal contamination is a good absolute friend. Just keep that "friend" hidden away.

You make a good point about the mining of materials for batteries. Which is why I think overall the numbers of cars we have should reduce and the focus should be on mass transit. However people won't buy into that immediately, and the impact of mining for REM is still not as bad as our carbon footprints. Maybe Graphene supercapacitors might be a way forward? Who knows - science doesn't have all the answers yet, but it certainly is the way to the answers.

Our carbon footprint has to go down.

 

[Paul2]

You make a good point about the mining of materials for batteries. Which is why I think overall the numbers of cars we have should reduce and the focus should be on mass transit. However people won't buy into that immediately, and the impact of mining for REM is still not as bad as our carbon footprints. Maybe Graphene supercapacitors might be a way forward? Who knows - science doesn't have all the answers yet, but it certainly is the way to the answers.

REMs are not used in any popular battery composition. LiFePO4 chemistry is dirt cheap as it needs nor nicker, nor cobalt, and phosphates are being spent by tonnes as a fertiliser. In addition to that, that chemistry is very temperature tolerant unlike just any other battery chemistry, which is important in South China, and I believe in Pakistan too.

 

[VCheng]

I invite you to come to Canada and see the Nickel mines at Sudbury. While the climate alarmism goes at full speed and all the media attention + big govt tax-loving focused there, nasty things reminiscent of Mordor are afoot down here, largely kept away from prying eyes...and largely sequestered and quarantined for any actual debate/discussion....forget "science".

But I guess anything goes as long as we can save a 1 degree Celsius increase by some model...when other models earlier said there was going to be a huge grand ice age....with 95% "quote each other endlessly" "consensus" as well back then.

After all carbon dioxide which plants eat is the absolute enemy, heavy metal contamination is a good absolute friend. Just keep that "friend" hidden away.

A simple fact: take away government subsidies and see how electric car sales collapse. So much for the merits of the technology.

(And this is even before the decommissioning costs become apparent.)

 

[Paul2]

A simple fact: take away government subsidies and see how electric car sales collapse. So much for the merits of the technology.

(And this is even before the decommissioning costs become apparent.)

There are lots of EVs being sold without any subsidies already in China. Though mostly under $10k ones

 

[LeGenD]

Some points to ponder:

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/11/honda-ceo-evs-will-not-be-mainstream/

Honda CEO: ‘EVs Will Not Be Mainstream’

The tide of praise and promise that swept in at the impetus of the 21st century to support electric vehicles is receding. The same goes for the entire concept of autonomy — though this has been pulling back faster than Nicholas Cage’s hairline, and with only a fraction of its grace. Over the last few years, the number of voices shrugging off advanced technologies has increased, creating a rift between cynics and believers.

While largely disinterested in the ramifications of the technology, automakers have also tamped down their previously bloated expectations. Those pushing alternative powertrains and vehicular autonomy are becoming more biased, but so too are the companies that never bothered chasing them quite so zealously in the first place.

Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo says his company still has serious doubts as to just how lucrative electrification and mobility projects will actually be, suggesting the costs and complications of such technologies probably aren’t worth pursuing as a primary objective.

“The hurdles to battery electric vehicles and complete autonomous driving are still quite high,” Hachigo told Automotive News in an interview at Honda’s global headquarters last month. “I don’t know whether other manufacturers are becoming too optimistic or not, but apparently the approach in going about these regulations differs from one company to another.”

However, it would be wrong to discount Honda as a company without at least a few logs burning in the opposite campfire. Honda was the first automaker to mainstream hybrid technology, thanks to the Insight, and has put sizable investments behind both electrification and various mobility projects. We grumbled earlier this year when the automaker previewed “Dream Drive” as a connected user experience ready to be loaded up with microtransactions and partnered marketing opportunities. Honda is not squeaky clean, nor is it wholly avoiding electric and autonomous vehicles — or their associated trappings. Few car companies can claim otherwise these days.

The business does have less-extreme ambitions than some other manufacturers, however. Its battery-powered Honda E perked up our interested but isn’t expected to become a global product. Instead, it’s being shopped around in markets with more demanding emission regulations — likely existing as little more than a well-designed compliance vehicle.

The brand also wants to draw two-thirds of its global sales from electrified vehicles by 2030 and dump a glut of EVs into the European market in a few years, though the automaker has admitted the brunt of those sales will probably come from hybrid models, not battery-electric cars.

“I do not believe there will be a dramatic increase in demand for battery vehicles, and I believe this situation is true globally,” Hachigo said. “There are issues with infrastructure and hardware.”

“There are different regulations in different countries, and we have to abide by them. So, it’s a must to continue R&D,” he continued. “But I don’t believe it will become mainstream anytime soon.”

Meanwhile, autonomous projects have fallen by the wayside. Honda plans on continuing development efforts but wants to focus more on advanced driving aids and mobility projects with more proven commercial value.

In autonomous driving, Honda announced plans in 2017 for lane-changing autonomous highway driving by 2020 and Level 4 self-driving by 2025. But it has offered few updates since.

Indeed, Hachigo said last month the carmaker has no horizon for introducing Level 3 automated driving, which allows the car to drive itself under certain circumstances as long as the driver is ready to take over.

“I don’t have any timeline or vehicle model in mind,” the Honda boss said.

Instead, the company will continue adding functionality to its Honda Sensing system, a suite of safety features such as lane-keep assist, blind-spot warning and automatic emergency braking.

“We have established these technologies, but at the same time, you have to think about what the social demand is and what legal environment we have to operate in,” said Hachigo. “Now is the time for us to ponder how we can introduce these services to the market.”

Honda is also reportedly disinterested in aligning itself with other manufacturers to endure the high-cost of developing these new technologies. It plans to pursue limited partnerships, claiming a corporate merger would be out of the question — despite that being a current trend among the industries largest players.

“We do not have any intention of having a capital tie-up,” the CEO explained. “The reason is, once we have a capital tie-up, that other party will have some voice in our management, which means in some instances, we may not be able to move in the direction we want."

Well, Honda is not stupid.

Only Tesla is capable of developing EV that can compete with fuel-based vehicles in performance at present, and even Tesla does not have a flawless resume. I fear that numerous brands will terribly disappoint if people are expecting to utilize them roughly like fuel-based vehicles.

An EV require an excellent set-of-batteries to be viable - these are not easy to mass produce and neither cost-effective.

FYI: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-obstacle-on-the-road-to-electric-vehicles-11563459592

Secondly, how many can afford home-based charging facility?

 

[Nilgiri]

You make a good point about the mining of materials for batteries. Which is why I think overall the numbers of cars we have should reduce and the focus should be on mass transit. However people won't buy into that immediately, and the impact of mining for REM is still not as bad as our carbon footprints. Maybe Graphene supercapacitors might be a way forward? Who knows - science doesn't have all the answers yet, but it certainly is the way to the answers.

Our carbon footprint has to go down.

I have good friend working on next generation (think 6G) of wireless transmission and they are getting some interesting results on how to better deploy resonance-based energy transmission as a side-development (think wireless charging/power/traction). It again has to do with certain nano-scale structural implementation needed to counter the terrible di-electric and permittivity of air (nano scale practical reach is the major stumbling block generally with everything once you first develop theory and first fabrication/testing).

Its very early days of course....but they are laying the broad contours for further research and development.

The other broader (well known) approach is what you mention, improving the materials themselves at the nano scale.

This (micro and nano scale stuff) is one of the significant critical areas of research this century and beyond for sure as far as revolutionary science -engg goes... (given we have largely reached all the frontiers in macro engineering broadly and can just tinker, iterate and optimise there)...whomever breaks huge barriers here will have huge and immense advantages.

 

[ziaulislam]