GDP rebasing done with 2015-16 base. GDP growth rate for FY21 is 5.57%. GDP size: 55.5 tr or $346 bn. Per capita $1666. Debt to GDP 72%.

[HRK]

But PBS can help FBR in this right. ? I think there is a need of intra-department work.

Ideally it should

But in this case PBS collect DATA from primary sources such as SPB, FBR , Trade Organizations etc. etc. not directly from Market.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

I'm rebasing, one of the objective is always to bring those sectors to GDP which are hidden till that time. So I guess that's also included.


By asking to bringing dollar to Pkr to 140 I didn't meant to sell reserves in market but to increase dollar inflows/exports and decrease dollar outflow/exports. This will ultimately bring down PKR to this range.


But PBS can help FBR in this right. ? I think there is a need of intra-department work.

Its other way around I think. Its FBR job to document the economy and PBS to calculate national accounts. Like Pakistan retail is estimated to be Rs22 trillion but only Rs5 trillion is documented. Thats why FBR is installing POS machines but even there there is huge fraud going on. Basically it will take much more to get true picture of the economy because no one want to pay income tax.

If FBR with help of technology can document retail better then it will reflect in next rebasing in 5 or 10 years.

 

[Pakstallion]

Impressive but not sustainable as always View attachment 810084View attachment 810085View attachment 810086

No one knows the magic number of GDP growth after which we go in to balance of payments crisis. That number is also probably increasing given the increase in exports but deeply affected by oil and palm oil prices. I think 5.37 was probably not bad as they had a minimal CAD that year. Also makes me think we may be touching 7 percent this year with all the problems the current account is having. Really pointless to have that 7 percent though if it causes another balance of payment crisis. They are trying to manage with increased interest rates hopefully slowing things down a bit and hopefully cutting back on the inflation some. Need another 2-3 years of big export growth (plus tech) to allow the economy to really grow at 7-8 percent. By then some of the investments in local edible oil production and import substitution will have moved even further ahead.

 

[Norwegian]

No one knows the magic number of GDP growth after which we go in to balance of payments crisis.

We know that magic number for years. It's around 4 percent Gdp growth

@Patriot forever @ziaulislam @farok84 @Jungibaaz

 

[N.Siddiqui]

We know that magic number for years. It's around 4 percent Gdp growth View attachment 810105View attachment 810106
@Patriot forever @ziaulislam @farok84 @Jungibaaz

Numbers tells a different story...or maybe this has just began, the growth story after the initial shocks and covid 19.

The State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) latest data showed the private sector borrowing jumped by 508pc to Rs715. 7 billion in the July-December period against Rs117. 7bn in the same period of FY21. ...

Private sector borrowing sees fivefold rise in 1HFY22

The private sector’s surging borrowings are a clear sign of growing economic activities.

www.dawn.com

.

Half-yearly private sector borrowing exceeds Rs1tr

Bankers say if growth in credit off-take by the private sector continues with current pace, it will certainly set a new record.

www.dawn.com

 

[313ghazi]

Numbers tells a different story...or maybe this has just began, the growth story after the initial shocks and covid 19.

The State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) latest data showed the private sector borrowing jumped by 508pc to Rs715. 7 billion in the July-December period against Rs117. 7bn in the same period of FY21. ...

Private sector borrowing sees fivefold rise in 1HFY22

The private sector’s surging borrowings are a clear sign of growing economic activities.

www.dawn.com

.

Half-yearly private sector borrowing exceeds Rs1tr

Bankers say if growth in credit off-take by the private sector continues with current pace, it will certainly set a new record.

www.dawn.com

What does that mean? Is that govt borrowing from private sector or people borrowing?

 

[N.Siddiqui]

What does that mean? Is that govt borrowing from private sector or people borrowing?

Private sector companies offtaking loans from the local banks that has increased exponentially, an increase of over 500%, shows the investment in new ventures, new manufactuing and biz.

 

[Maula Jatt]

What does that mean? Is that govt borrowing from private sector or people borrowing?

highlighted

 

[N.Siddiqui]

We know that magic number for years. It's around 4 percent Gdp growth

Slightly better than Hindu rate of growth ...for a small economy like Pakistan need to increase substantially.

 

[Wood]

Is our nation full of Ishaq Dars? When are we going to learn that artificially controlling the price of dollar never helped Pakistani economy?

Keep the dollar flying

The fear of flexibility in the exchange rate has been shared by most, if not all, our finance ministers.

www.dawn.com

This was indeed one of China's tricks to economic rise. Turkey is trying to emulate the same. You debase your currency and make the population more poor than they need to be without a direct pay cut. This will make your exports more competitive automatically because the population is willing to work for less (in real terms). You'll hope that this will in the long terms establish supply chains and industrial base efficiencies that will not move away from your shores when the income level eventually increases.

Authoritarian governments that do not care for reelection can do this more easily than democratic countries. Indian rupee is also over valued in my opinion

Lets stick to Purchasing power
Thats what matter and that is what people look at

GDP in PPP terms do not give you bragging rights in international comparison. Most people in public forums such as these discuss about GDP and per capita just to brag

 

[N.Siddiqui]

Authoritarian governments that do not care for reelection can do this more easily than democratic countries. Indian rupee is also over valued in my opinion

INR will see some devaluation after the huge loan repayment in next 12 months, and with it the forex crunch, but still would be in good position.

India's forex reserves to face $256 billion overseas debt challenge in next 12 months

External debt worth $256 billion matures over the next 12 months, according to the September data released by the finance ministry. This is about 43 per cent of the September external debt outstanding at $596 billion.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Patriot forever]

Numbers tells a different story...or maybe this has just began, the growth story after the initial shocks and covid 19.

The State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) latest data showed the private sector borrowing jumped by 508pc to Rs715. 7 billion in the July-December period against Rs117. 7bn in the same period of FY21. ...

Private sector borrowing sees fivefold rise in 1HFY22

The private sector’s surging borrowings are a clear sign of growing economic activities.

www.dawn.com

.

Half-yearly private sector borrowing exceeds Rs1tr

Bankers say if growth in credit off-take by the private sector continues with current pace, it will certainly set a new record.

www.dawn.com

That is absolutely true that our growth is faster in the 1st half of this FY 2022 than in FY 2021.
Our GDP growth ( old base) provisional figure for first 9 months of FY 2021 was at 3.94%.
Currently our estimated growth is 5% (old base) in the first half of FY2022 ( July-Dec).

( Please note it does not mean our GDP will be higher for the full year than last year because there was momentum moving into each quarter, now with the commodity prices and the much necessary adjustments made to minimize CAD, growth will slow down in the coming quarters).

 

[Norwegian]

Turkey is trying to emulate the same. You debase your currency and make the population more poor than they need to be without a direct pay cut. This will make your exports more competitive automatically because the population is willing to work for less (in real terms). You'll hope that this will in the long terms establish supply chains and industrial base efficiencies that will not move away from your shores when the income level eventually increases.

Maybe but it's not working in Turkey

 

[Patriot forever]

This was indeed one of China's tricks to economic rise. Turkey is trying to emulate the same. You debase your currency and make the population more poor than they need to be without a direct pay cut. This will make your exports more competitive automatically because the population is willing to work for less (in real terms). You'll hope that this will in the long terms establish supply chains and industrial base efficiencies that will not move away from your shores when the income level eventually increases.

Authoritarian governments that do not care for reelection can do this more easily than democratic countries. Indian rupee is also over valued in my opinion

GDP in PPP terms do not give you bragging rights in international comparison. Most people in public forums such as these discuss about GDP and per capita just to brag

Bro you are right in your approach.

Let put it this way, the painful phase we are going through China went through that a good 3 decades ago, India a good 1 1/2 decade ago. Comparing them to us in the current time is flawed.

2nd Indian currency is not overvalued, they have kept their currency in the very neat fair value range and have a very capable and independent RBI.

 

[Imran Khan]

This was indeed one of China's tricks to economic rise. Turkey is trying to emulate the same. You debase your currency and make the population more poor than they need to be without a direct pay cut. This will make your exports more competitive automatically because the population is willing to work for less (in real terms). You'll hope that this will in the long terms establish supply chains and industrial base efficiencies that will not move away from your shores when the income level eventually increases.

Authoritarian governments that do not care for reelection can do this more easily than democratic countries. Indian rupee is also over valued in my opinion

GDP in PPP terms do not give you bragging rights in international comparison. Most people in public forums such as these discuss about GDP and per capita just to brag

my question is simple last night my yearly income was 1193$ and today its 1666 $ wow

about re base its still better then using own ayurvedic way of calculation and becoming 2.5tr $ false economy like modi did .