Erdogan comes to Russia to talk about Idlib for Manbij deal

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1088053962509570048

 

[vizier]

One possibility that came to my mind is that putin can offer Idlib anti-hts operation made by Turkey. In return offer terms for Turkey to accept Syria-sdf negotiations and maybe later on conditions like total disarmement of sdf, central government with no autonomy and similar measures to convince Turkey that there will be no sdf threat and convince Syria for Turkish operation in Idlib.
Maybe this can work depending on the conditions but who still has the last say is still usa in north eastern Syria and sdf will definately obey. trump can make u turns as we all know. For example if he decides to give the buffer zone to saudi led coalition or something similar everyone loses. Syria would give up on Idlib but also would not get north east Syria. pyd threat will still continue and it would be an unnecessary risk taken by Turkey in Idlib in that case.
Two issues should be dealt with separately in my opinion.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

One possibility that came to my mind is that putin can offer Idlib anti-hts operation made by Turkey.

Russia don't need Turkey help taking Idlib. The op won't even last 2 months. Most likely one. HTS lost a third of Idlib last year within a couple of weeks and that was before SAA took over all the other pockets.

 

[vizier]

It is not about the need for help but for making deals between Syria and Turkey putting forward the Idlib issue in exchange for ne Syria is inapplicable as long as usa is active in the region.

As I mentioned if usa decides to put saudi coalition in buffer zone later on then Turkey will lose the opportunity of neutralising sdf threat and Syria will give up conttrolling idlib and lose neast Syria.
Similar is true if usa decides to give buffer zone to Turkey after Turkey takes out hts in Idlib and gains control there. In that option Turkey gains some advantage but Syria will lose opportunity of both retaking Idlib and lose ne Syria again so they wont accept it even if putin asks for it.

That leaves Syria making idlib op in return allowing Turkey for neast Syria operations or Turkey waiting and allowing Syrian gov disarming sdf and gaining control neast Syria and after that Turkey making the Idlib op which are low probability scenarios.

So it is better to keep these issues separate.