Martian2
SENIOR MEMBER
- Dec 15, 2009
- 5,809
- -37
China possesses all of the advanced technology that it needs. Furthermore, China can research and develop new technologies. Also, China has a huge domestic economy that is self-sustaining and growing.
China's only weakness is energy. How does China assure itself of a secure supply of energy? Let's look at six different ways.
1. Saudi Arabian oil is the easiest source. However, the U.S. Navy poses a security threat. The solution is to build a navy to counter the U.S. military. This is twenty years away. The PLA Navy needs time to build more destroyers, nuclear submarines, and aircraft carriers.
2. Iranian oil presents an alternative. The benefit of Iran is a potential land route. If China is willing to deploy its army to secure an oil pipeline over Afghanistan to Iran then the supply is secure. However, you never know whether the Iranian mullahs are willing to cooperate over the long term.
3. Russian oil is right next door. The problem is whether the Russians can be trusted. Russians tend to be the jealous type. You never know whether Russia will honor a 30-year contract.
4. The South China Sea is an intriguing possibility. Depending on the amount of oil in the South China Sea, it could potentially help China achieve energy independence. However, offshore oil platforms are expensive and wells take time to drill and develop.
5. Mongolia has 150 billion tons of coal. Since Mongolia used to be part of China prior to 1945, the reattachment of Mongolia to China in an emergency is an option.
Currently, China has four coal-to-liquid (CTL) plants. China can build a water pipeline from the Bohai Bay to Mongolia. With plentiful water, China can build as many CTL plants in Mongolia to produce synthetic oil as it likes. The break-even point for a barrel of CTL oil is about $50.
STRATEGIC PARTNER GENERAL PARTNERS MAJOR PARTNERS COAL CONVERSION OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA | Lini Fu - Academia.edu (page 12)
"Currently China has four CTL plants in operation: two in Inner Mongolia and two in Shanxi."
6. Alternative energy in the form of more hydro, nuclear (uranium- and thorium-based), solar, and wind farms (both onshore and offshore). This will take about fifty years before China can transition to a renewable-based economy.
In conclusion, the six different potential avenues to Chinese energy independence present different strengths and weaknesses. Of course, the best solution is to achieve as many of the enumerated options as possible.
China's only weakness is energy. How does China assure itself of a secure supply of energy? Let's look at six different ways.
1. Saudi Arabian oil is the easiest source. However, the U.S. Navy poses a security threat. The solution is to build a navy to counter the U.S. military. This is twenty years away. The PLA Navy needs time to build more destroyers, nuclear submarines, and aircraft carriers.
2. Iranian oil presents an alternative. The benefit of Iran is a potential land route. If China is willing to deploy its army to secure an oil pipeline over Afghanistan to Iran then the supply is secure. However, you never know whether the Iranian mullahs are willing to cooperate over the long term.
3. Russian oil is right next door. The problem is whether the Russians can be trusted. Russians tend to be the jealous type. You never know whether Russia will honor a 30-year contract.
4. The South China Sea is an intriguing possibility. Depending on the amount of oil in the South China Sea, it could potentially help China achieve energy independence. However, offshore oil platforms are expensive and wells take time to drill and develop.
5. Mongolia has 150 billion tons of coal. Since Mongolia used to be part of China prior to 1945, the reattachment of Mongolia to China in an emergency is an option.
Currently, China has four coal-to-liquid (CTL) plants. China can build a water pipeline from the Bohai Bay to Mongolia. With plentiful water, China can build as many CTL plants in Mongolia to produce synthetic oil as it likes. The break-even point for a barrel of CTL oil is about $50.
STRATEGIC PARTNER GENERAL PARTNERS MAJOR PARTNERS COAL CONVERSION OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA | Lini Fu - Academia.edu (page 12)
"Currently China has four CTL plants in operation: two in Inner Mongolia and two in Shanxi."
6. Alternative energy in the form of more hydro, nuclear (uranium- and thorium-based), solar, and wind farms (both onshore and offshore). This will take about fifty years before China can transition to a renewable-based economy.
In conclusion, the six different potential avenues to Chinese energy independence present different strengths and weaknesses. Of course, the best solution is to achieve as many of the enumerated options as possible.
