war&peace
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Don't trust a word out of the Modi gov't.
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war&peace
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Yes, India’s Economy Is Growing, but Can You Trust the Data?
A scooter factory in Bangalore. The Indian government’s official data shows the economy expanding 7 to 8 percent a year, rivaling or exceeding China.CreditRebecca Conway for The New York Times
Image
A scooter factory in Bangalore. The Indian government’s official data shows the economy expanding 7 to 8 percent a year, rivaling or exceeding China.CreditCreditRebecca Conway for The New York Times
By Keith Bradsher
The Indian government’s official data shows the economy expanding 7 to 8 percent a year, rivaling or exceeding China since he took office in 2014. But changes in India’s statistical processes, particularly tracking whether jobs were created or lost under Mr. Modi, have prompted allegations of political interference and questions about data quality.
A new national employment survey was scheduled for release early last year and was to be used to reassess economic growth, but has been delayed repeatedly, prompting two senior government statisticians to resign in January. Some of its data was leaked to the Business Standard, an Indian newspaper, showing unemployment at 6.1 percent, more than double previous reports. Labor Ministry surveys from 2011 through 2016 had the jobless rate below 3 percent.
The big question is: Whose data do you trust?
Some economists, particularly in academia, are deeply suspicious of the government’s statistics. “They have politicized this whole data collection process,” said Jayati Ghosh, an economist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “Nobody believes the numbers anymore.”
Subscribe to The Times
Countries around the world, including the United States, once used versions of that approach, although industrialized countries mostly abandoned it over the last several decades. But growth statistics produced by this method are highly dependent on the price estimates. For example, if you are counting cars, you could miss the economic growth that occurs as manufacturers charge more for their cars when they add fancier engines or leather seats.
The new method — which India has embraced — relies on financial data reported to the government. The financial results of 900,000 companies incorporated in India are assessed to gauge the country’s total economic activity. India is one of the first developing countries to adopt this method.
But small businesses abound in India, and until the past couple of years they operated almost entirely on cash. This so-called informal economy, including agriculture, represents nearly half of India’s economic output. The new statistical method assumes that the informal economy will go up and down in parallel to the incorporated companies.
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Most of the time, that is a fair assumption, said Pronab Sen, a longtime civil servant who oversaw India’s economic statistics and the introduction of the new system before retiring in 2016. But small businesses were less able to cope with some big structural changes of the Modi years, he said.
“Corporate India is doing very well,” Mr. Sen said in an interview at his home in southwestern New Delhi. “Noncorporate India, which accounts for about 45 percent of the economy, is not.”
Mr. Modi abruptly recalled the country’s large-denomination currency bills in November 2016. It was a mostly unsuccessful effort to catch people skirting taxes. Large businesses could adapt by asking customers to use credit cards or bank wire transfers for easier transactions. Small businesses, reliant on cash, suffered months of severe disruption.
Seven months later, in summer 2017, a single value-added tax was introduced, partly to better monitor taxable revenue. The new tax replaced a labyrinth of 17 state and national taxes, and considerably curtailed widespread bribery between businesses and tax collectors. Big businesses could afford to hire specialists to cope with the change and the government’s buggy software. Small businesses struggled, and are still struggling, to adjust.
Government economic statistics have not measured the divergence between how small and large businesses were affected by the reforms. The Modi campaign ran partly on its efforts to free businesses from red tape, but it provided no data from the past two years on joblessness, a key indicator of the informal sector’s health.
Disputes over India’s data prompted rancor, including complaints from 108 economists and social scientists who signed a letter in March that contended the Modi government was silencing bad news. “In fact, any statistics that cast an iota of doubt on the achievement of the government seem to get revised or suppressed on the basis of some questionable ideology,” the letter said.
Mr. Modi’s economic policy commission has insisted that the unemployment survey data — which remains unpublished — needs further review. Amitabh Kant, the commission’s chief executive and one of Mr. Modi’s top appointees, said in an interview that “India is creating a lot of jobs, but India is not creating quality jobs.”
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Catch up and prep for the week ahead with this newsletter of the most important business insights, delivered Sundays.
News reports that unemployment may have doubled, as the Business Standard account indicated, have inflamed the debate. Some business allies of Mr. Modi have taken to questioning how unemployment is even recorded.
“We are foolishly chasing the myth of jobs,” said Shailesh Haribhakti, a Mumbai accountant and financier who is on the boards of 16 companies. “The world has moved on from the previous direction of putting people to work from 9 to 5 and paying them a monthly salary.”
Mr. Sen, the retired civil servant, said he believed that workers who were paid directly for individual jobs, like Uber drivers, were being properly counted. The most likely explanation for the reported leap in unemployment, he said, is that many small businesses are still recovering from the currency overhaul of two years ago.
What is the true rate of economic growth now? Mr. Sen said he would not even hazard a guess.
A scooter factory in Bangalore. The Indian government’s official data shows the economy expanding 7 to 8 percent a year, rivaling or exceeding China.CreditRebecca Conway for The New York Times
Image
A scooter factory in Bangalore. The Indian government’s official data shows the economy expanding 7 to 8 percent a year, rivaling or exceeding China.CreditCreditRebecca Conway for The New York Times
By Keith Bradsher
- May 30, 2019
The Indian government’s official data shows the economy expanding 7 to 8 percent a year, rivaling or exceeding China since he took office in 2014. But changes in India’s statistical processes, particularly tracking whether jobs were created or lost under Mr. Modi, have prompted allegations of political interference and questions about data quality.
A new national employment survey was scheduled for release early last year and was to be used to reassess economic growth, but has been delayed repeatedly, prompting two senior government statisticians to resign in January. Some of its data was leaked to the Business Standard, an Indian newspaper, showing unemployment at 6.1 percent, more than double previous reports. Labor Ministry surveys from 2011 through 2016 had the jobless rate below 3 percent.
The big question is: Whose data do you trust?
Some economists, particularly in academia, are deeply suspicious of the government’s statistics. “They have politicized this whole data collection process,” said Jayati Ghosh, an economist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “Nobody believes the numbers anymore.”
Subscribe to The Times
Countries around the world, including the United States, once used versions of that approach, although industrialized countries mostly abandoned it over the last several decades. But growth statistics produced by this method are highly dependent on the price estimates. For example, if you are counting cars, you could miss the economic growth that occurs as manufacturers charge more for their cars when they add fancier engines or leather seats.
The new method — which India has embraced — relies on financial data reported to the government. The financial results of 900,000 companies incorporated in India are assessed to gauge the country’s total economic activity. India is one of the first developing countries to adopt this method.
But small businesses abound in India, and until the past couple of years they operated almost entirely on cash. This so-called informal economy, including agriculture, represents nearly half of India’s economic output. The new statistical method assumes that the informal economy will go up and down in parallel to the incorporated companies.
What if They Made a Dirty Rom-Com About People Who Looked Like Them?
Why 1999 Was Hollywood’s Greatest Year
36 Hours in Bend, Ore. (and Environs)
Most of the time, that is a fair assumption, said Pronab Sen, a longtime civil servant who oversaw India’s economic statistics and the introduction of the new system before retiring in 2016. But small businesses were less able to cope with some big structural changes of the Modi years, he said.
“Corporate India is doing very well,” Mr. Sen said in an interview at his home in southwestern New Delhi. “Noncorporate India, which accounts for about 45 percent of the economy, is not.”
Mr. Modi abruptly recalled the country’s large-denomination currency bills in November 2016. It was a mostly unsuccessful effort to catch people skirting taxes. Large businesses could adapt by asking customers to use credit cards or bank wire transfers for easier transactions. Small businesses, reliant on cash, suffered months of severe disruption.
Seven months later, in summer 2017, a single value-added tax was introduced, partly to better monitor taxable revenue. The new tax replaced a labyrinth of 17 state and national taxes, and considerably curtailed widespread bribery between businesses and tax collectors. Big businesses could afford to hire specialists to cope with the change and the government’s buggy software. Small businesses struggled, and are still struggling, to adjust.
Government economic statistics have not measured the divergence between how small and large businesses were affected by the reforms. The Modi campaign ran partly on its efforts to free businesses from red tape, but it provided no data from the past two years on joblessness, a key indicator of the informal sector’s health.
Disputes over India’s data prompted rancor, including complaints from 108 economists and social scientists who signed a letter in March that contended the Modi government was silencing bad news. “In fact, any statistics that cast an iota of doubt on the achievement of the government seem to get revised or suppressed on the basis of some questionable ideology,” the letter said.
Mr. Modi’s economic policy commission has insisted that the unemployment survey data — which remains unpublished — needs further review. Amitabh Kant, the commission’s chief executive and one of Mr. Modi’s top appointees, said in an interview that “India is creating a lot of jobs, but India is not creating quality jobs.”
Subscribe to With Interest
Catch up and prep for the week ahead with this newsletter of the most important business insights, delivered Sundays.
News reports that unemployment may have doubled, as the Business Standard account indicated, have inflamed the debate. Some business allies of Mr. Modi have taken to questioning how unemployment is even recorded.
“We are foolishly chasing the myth of jobs,” said Shailesh Haribhakti, a Mumbai accountant and financier who is on the boards of 16 companies. “The world has moved on from the previous direction of putting people to work from 9 to 5 and paying them a monthly salary.”
Mr. Sen, the retired civil servant, said he believed that workers who were paid directly for individual jobs, like Uber drivers, were being properly counted. The most likely explanation for the reported leap in unemployment, he said, is that many small businesses are still recovering from the currency overhaul of two years ago.
What is the true rate of economic growth now? Mr. Sen said he would not even hazard a guess.
El Sidd
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sorry man you must follow government line and see peace with Modi as ideal for economic prosperity.
you dont have to be emotional. you have to be practical. IPI and TAPI will help billions lift themselves out of poverty.
stop listening to the devil. stand for the written word and not seek worldly pleasure.
bad dude. deep pits of hell will welcome you. look at what happened to Lahab and Qarun and Shaddad.
well Modi is Minion of the Dajjal and hence everyone is confused.
now you understand. good.
YeBeWarned
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If anyone Questions Modi he/she will be labelled as Traitor and lynched by the RSS goons .
Dubious
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What in God's name is happening here? You talking/ agreeing-disagreeing with yourself mate?
Kamikaze Pilot
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El Sidd
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i was bored
Dubious
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I was going to call the German pagal khanna near your place to come pick you up
El Sidd
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I was going to call the German pagal khanna near your place to come pick you up
if you ask my neighbours they think its already one.
从八品主簿
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gold! gold! gold! Modi made a meritorious deed, and Modi made a merit! Don't give the poor any chance. Great Indian Prime Minister! He inherited the tradition of Ashoka. Akbar the Great, Tagore, Mahatma Gandhi in this moment soul possession! Modi is a person who represents India's long history and tradition. At this moment he is not alone in fighting, he is not alone!
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