Meliodas
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- Mar 17, 2019
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These days pak and India have been in a constant tussle since the pulwama attack and upcoming Indian elections has been cited by many as the reason for this confrontation and constant acts of aggression/intervantion/face saving by India.
Though I consider this as one of the factors and acknowledge the changing social and political scenario as India changes its Meccah from Nehru to nrmeta ji, still I think that this is not the only stimuli.
On the other side of our border (Afghanistan) things have been changing rapidly and as the weather changes an acceleration is anticipated.
Geopolitical processes are evolving around Afghanistan. A new round of talks with representatives of the Taliban movement is expected. Global capitals are making statements that one could hardly imagine a year ago. An active negotiations process (which has already turned into never-ending) involving almost all big geopolitical players is underway.
After the main contingent of US and foreign troops withdrew in 2014, a vacuum emerged, which was very quickly filled by the Taliban. The situation degraded, destabilization reached an unthinkable scale. Radical groups got around 40% of the country’s territory, an absolute majority of rural lands under control. In southern and eastern provinces, the Taliban movement virtually took power, defining taxes, informal governors and the laws, under which most people live. As it got a feel for power, the Taliban intensified confrontation. The civil war reached big cities where fundamentalists were not among favorites. Terrorist attacks became everyday routines.
That was the environment and lay of the land preceding the current geopolitical reality. In February 2018, a political sensation occurred. Taking on the role of the major peacemaker, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani reached out to the Taliban. He declared determination to acknowledge the radical movement as a political party and release imprisoned Taliban members from jails. It was suggested that radical forces take part in elections at various levels and become a full-fledged political power. That was probably the highlight of last year for Afghanistan.
The sides of the conflict – Kabul and Taliban – realized that a military victory was impossible. Whereas in the US there was a reshuffle in the administration, which at least at first sight, tends towards a certain simulacrum of go-it-alone approach, particularly in the East. The peaceful process initiated early last year envisions constant negotiations in various influential capitals. The official Kabul and Taliban representatives were expected to search for compromise solutions to break the deadlock. However, the movement would not budge and refused to foster dialogue with “Kabul’s proxy rule.” As a result, the negotiations process is underway mainly between the Taliban and the US, as well as representatives of regional and global powers. Among those involved in the process are Russia, China, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Iran.
In current situation Afghan Russia relations are not at their best and Taliban have been seen as gaining more and more control everyday.
All of this rings siren in the minds of Indian policy makers as if in the next six months situation worsens wimhich is highly likely, Indian investments in the area along with future plans will fall under jeopardy and I think the whole pulwama and its after affects are related to india's reaction of what's happening in Afghanistan.
Though I consider this as one of the factors and acknowledge the changing social and political scenario as India changes its Meccah from Nehru to nrmeta ji, still I think that this is not the only stimuli.
On the other side of our border (Afghanistan) things have been changing rapidly and as the weather changes an acceleration is anticipated.
Geopolitical processes are evolving around Afghanistan. A new round of talks with representatives of the Taliban movement is expected. Global capitals are making statements that one could hardly imagine a year ago. An active negotiations process (which has already turned into never-ending) involving almost all big geopolitical players is underway.
After the main contingent of US and foreign troops withdrew in 2014, a vacuum emerged, which was very quickly filled by the Taliban. The situation degraded, destabilization reached an unthinkable scale. Radical groups got around 40% of the country’s territory, an absolute majority of rural lands under control. In southern and eastern provinces, the Taliban movement virtually took power, defining taxes, informal governors and the laws, under which most people live. As it got a feel for power, the Taliban intensified confrontation. The civil war reached big cities where fundamentalists were not among favorites. Terrorist attacks became everyday routines.
That was the environment and lay of the land preceding the current geopolitical reality. In February 2018, a political sensation occurred. Taking on the role of the major peacemaker, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani reached out to the Taliban. He declared determination to acknowledge the radical movement as a political party and release imprisoned Taliban members from jails. It was suggested that radical forces take part in elections at various levels and become a full-fledged political power. That was probably the highlight of last year for Afghanistan.
The sides of the conflict – Kabul and Taliban – realized that a military victory was impossible. Whereas in the US there was a reshuffle in the administration, which at least at first sight, tends towards a certain simulacrum of go-it-alone approach, particularly in the East. The peaceful process initiated early last year envisions constant negotiations in various influential capitals. The official Kabul and Taliban representatives were expected to search for compromise solutions to break the deadlock. However, the movement would not budge and refused to foster dialogue with “Kabul’s proxy rule.” As a result, the negotiations process is underway mainly between the Taliban and the US, as well as representatives of regional and global powers. Among those involved in the process are Russia, China, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Iran.
In current situation Afghan Russia relations are not at their best and Taliban have been seen as gaining more and more control everyday.
All of this rings siren in the minds of Indian policy makers as if in the next six months situation worsens wimhich is highly likely, Indian investments in the area along with future plans will fall under jeopardy and I think the whole pulwama and its after affects are related to india's reaction of what's happening in Afghanistan.
