Countries most likely to default

[Hafizzz]

Here Are The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default
UBS: Here Are The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default

Italy is being touted as the country that is too big to save. And with the ECB legally prevented from being a lender of last resort, an Italian debt restructuring is inevitable, according to Nouriel Roubini.

Italian 10-year yields have exploded over 7% and clearing house LCH.Clearnet SA has raised the cost of trading Italian debt.

With the the turmoil in Italy, Ireland is having a harder time convincing markets and investors that it could escape contagion. Meanwhile, Greece is still waiting on a new government.

As the European debt crisis continues, we drew on UBS analyst Andrew Cates' aggregate balance sheet risk index to provide a snapshot of the financial fragility of countries that look most likely to default. The factors that help determine balance sheet risk include high cumulative credit outstanding, high banking sector leverage as measured by loan-deposit ratios, and substantial public sector debt as a percentage of GDP.

Here Are The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default

19. US
18. Poland
17. Romania
16. Norway
15. Canada
14. Italy
13. Finland
12. Bulgaria
11. Netherlands
10. Sweden
9. Belgium
8. France
7. Denmark
6. Hungary
5. UK
4. Greece
3. Spain
2. Portugal
1. Ireland

Cool. Not a single Asian country on the list !!!

Go Asia Go !!!

 

[StandForInsaf]

Cool. Not a single Asian country on the list !!!

Go Asia Go !!!

I think Asians are not in that because they are way backward. They need to do much more work for their countries.

 

[Hafizzz]

I think Asians are not in that because they are way backward. They need to do much more work for their countries.

As far as I know, Japan is an Asian country.

 

[Bharthi]

Greece,Italy.

 

[rai_kamal]

Hey,their economies r at saturation so their growth will go down..
It is obvious that Asia is growing and will grow for long term.
But i m happy that Japan is not in the list..

 

[airuah]

there is nothing to be happy about that our countries are not on the list.....if the above countries default...every other nation will be affected too because of the simple reason that most of asia trades with Europe and US and are dependent on them to consume our stuff....if they default it maens they have no money to pays us .....then where do you think well get our cash from?

 

[anon45]

If the US is behind Canada in likelihood to default, I guess the world is safe from an American default. Either that or the article is wrong, take your pick.

 

[Hussein]

Greece,Italy.

Italy having a good economy: they have equilibrum.
the problem like many other countries: they got a debt that they hardly can money back.
I am hopeful for Italia .
Not for Greece which cheated the Europeans when they entered Europe.

France is trying its best for its reform? Sarkozy doesn't want to stop the taxes'gifts for the rich people.
So he becomes more and more unpopular .

 

[silko]

i am surprised Scandinavian countries is in the list...

now, can anyone tell me what "most likely to default" means?

 

[bandit]

i am surprised Scandinavian countries is in the list...

now, can anyone tell me what "most likely to default" means?

The link states that it is an analysts list based of a selection of criteria he thinks appropriate for default probability. You may well make your own list using different criteria or simply juggle weights given to criteria to come up with a different list.

That said, developed nations have a higher tendency to take on debt due to better reporting and credit standards. More money is given out as debt knowing you have a lot of information who you are lending to, meaning there is good chance of getting your money back since lenders have more information. That is the reason these contries score high on debt to X ratios used here. I also suspect this only lists major economies and not all smaller economies.

I would also include the capacity to pay back when considering the sovereign debt profile, kinda more realistic comparison when you can say a contry can pay back 10 trillion of its debt compared to 300 or so billion that Greece owes in sunk debts.

 

[somebozo]

If these countries default it will stop the export to resources form Asian and Middle Eastern countries which will force them to consume of their own and grow their internal economies stronger

 

[StandForInsaf]

If the US is behind Canada in likelihood to default, I guess the world is safe from an American default. Either that or the article is wrong, take your pick.

I don't think Canada is near default it going well, where as US has problems and if default happens it would be financial disaster because almost all countries have huge dollar reserves , US is to big to default.