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Containment of China & Security-Economic Imperatives for Pakistan

@Sinopakfriend
China and Pakistan are joined at hips economically and strategically and India and uncle sam know that so they are doing utmost to undo the relation and deal each one separately and if not, then surround them from every side and do the damage. China has improved its relations with Russia so its back is safe rather Russia wants to play a meaningful role along with Pakistan and China in region and benefit economically from this relationship through CPEC and similar arrangements.

However Pakistan faces two belligerent neighbours namely India and Afghanistan; the two countries with which Pakistan shares its longest borders on eastern and western fronts. Pakistan, China and Russia need to join and support each other in solving the Afghanistan issue and the solution is simple i.e. to arm and strengthen pro-Pakistan and pro-peace group in Afghanistan and give a damn to what NATO thinks. Under Taliban, Afghanistan was a peaceful place and it had just started to surge economically but USA attacked and destroyed it and made the whole region unstable. We should closely work on it. As I write this comment, Taliban and China have agreed for copper mining in Afghanistan and Russia is already negotiating with them...they are a ground reality and we should embrace it since they are not anti-Pakistan and we should disregard the propaganda by the western and Indian media and their stooges in Pakistani media against Afghan Taliban, because the fact is that Afghan Taliban have no ambitions outside of Afghanistan and it was peaceful place under their control.

Furthermore as @MastanKhan has already said that PAF needs to be strengthened asap. IMO, Su-35s can be a great addition and an instant power booster for PAF and also for air wing of PNS..thus if China-Pak-Russia can strike a deal for 3-4 sqdrns of these heavy weights, it can really alter the balance in favour of PAF vs IAF. Same goes for PNS while PA is fairing quite good and it will get even better with acquisition of the new MBTs, APVs and artillery.

The work on CPEC is progressing on a steady pace thanks to the dedication by Chinese govt and Pakistan Army. However Pakistan is suffering from the disease of incompetent and the corrupt govt which I'm sure you are totally aware of it and that adds tremendously to the woos of Pakistan and IDK what role China can play in this since this is Pakistan's internal affair but still it influences China as well. Though decision about who stay in PM house in Islamabad have been, unfortunately, decided outside the boundaries of Pakistan more often than not especially in the post-ZAB era.


Dear Pak Friend,

Valid points you make.

A circle is as strong, as clear as its centre...such is the nature of things.

Asian problems need asian solution @RiazHaq might be able to add valuable insights here.

AF is problem for China, Pak and Rus..hence the trilateral effort to find a lasting solution. AF is a curse for all of CA. Sorry for harsh words.

@MastanKhan is veteran and have his strong views....he just wishes his old country to cut the crap and get on with it...hence he beats them all rather hard.

@Khafee your views/analysis from outside of this Axis are very welcome...as whatever happends in South West Asia will effect West Asia.

Iran can be a great positive influence if it honestly join the Sino-Pak and emerging Sino-Pak-Rus Axis...
As I have observed many times earlier...Iran is oblique/opaque for me.. I find it difficult to percieve them.

Maybe @Kaptaan can provide insights to this dilema...his thesis of Pak elite has helped me form a better understanding of the political class.

We must never fail to estimate the situation with our full perception. The eastern hegemon is consolidating power and creating a new narrative which will only lead to broader conflict...since the current regime...will need either internal minorities to blame or Sino-Pak Friends...primarily Pak.

Only a concerted and well thought through design can contain this evil and hatred.

Hope some professional class is alive in Pak to this existential threat...since your political class is..what it is. So can not be relied upon in hour of need.

Modi regime's next internal power consolidation is going to be banning gold and silver...making the masses and middle class totallly dependent on central gov... already the moves are afoot to create corporate agri sector...this will drive the small farms into death spiral.

What we see before us is a cynical exploitation of masses in guise of fake and dangerous nationalism with religious fervor. The big money and current set up of this regime is all geared towards democratic fascism.

This process/mechanism is the biggest threat. BD is already a subserviant client state...Bhutan is an indian colony and SL is between rock and hard place.

Pak needs to get its act together..before..indians dry your fertile lands.

Winning without doing battle is the heighest form of Statecraft.
 
Dear Pak Friend,

A circle is as strong, as clear as its centre...such is the nature of things.

Asian problems need Asian solution. AF is problem for China, Pak and Rus..hence the trilateral effort to find a lasting solution. AF is a curse for all of CA. Sorry for harsh words.

Good points my friend and good discussions all around. USA came to the Af dance with Pak but has a new partner. Let's hope what they say about USA being United States of Amnesia stays true and India also tastes the pain that goes along with it.

home.jpg
 
Good points my friend and good discussions all around. USA came to the Af dance with Pak but has a new partner. Let's hope what they say about USA being United States of Amnesia stays true and India also tastes the pain that goes along with it.

home.jpg


Ah...Gore Vidal.. I liked his Julian..a novel.

Frankly, what matter is not what the global hegemon does...but what the regional one does...as it is next door and in your kitchen so to speak.

The rise of facism in Asia is very disturbing..since by its very nature it seeks expansion and hegemony.

Let us see how this pans out..as this regional hegemon is not only financing troubles in Pak but also around China...delusions make individuals and nations do pretty odd things.

Time to craft strategy to reverse-contain the troublemakers.
 
Dear Pak Friend,

Valid points you make.

A circle is as strong, as clear as its centre...such is the nature of things.

Asian problems need asian solution @RiazHaq might be able to add valuable insights here.

AF is problem for China, Pak and Rus..hence the trilateral effort to find a lasting solution. AF is a curse for all of CA. Sorry for harsh words.

@MastanKhan is veteran and have his strong views....he just wishes his old country to cut the crap and get on with it...hence he beats them all rather hard.

@Khafee your views/analysis from outside of this Axis are very welcome...as whatever happends in South West Asia will effect West Asia.

Iran can be a great positive influence if it honestly join the Sino-Pak and emerging Sino-Pak-Rus Axis...
As I have observed many times earlier...Iran is oblique/opaque for me.. I find it difficult to percieve them.

Maybe @Kaptaan can provide insights to this dilema...his thesis of Pak elite has helped me form a better understanding of the political class.

We must never fail to estimate the situation with our full perception. The eastern hegemon is consolidating power and creating a new narrative which will only lead to broader conflict...since the current regime...will need either internal minorities to blame or Sino-Pak Friends...primarily Pak.

Only a concerted and well thought through design can contain this evil and hatred.

Hope some professional class is alive in Pak to this existential threat...since your political class is..what it is. So can not be relied upon in hour of need.

Modi regime's next internal power consolidation is going to be banning gold and silver...making the masses and middle class totallly dependent on central gov... already the moves are afoot to create corporate agri sector...this will drive the small farms into death spiral.

What we see before us is a cynical exploitation of masses in guise of fake and dangerous nationalism with religious fervor. The big money and current set up of this regime is all geared towards democratic fascism.

This process/mechanism is the biggest threat. BD is already a subserviant client state...Bhutan is an indian colony and SL is between rock and hard place.

Pak needs to get its act together..before..indians dry your fertile lands.

Winning without doing battle is the heighest form of Statecraft.
Mate!!

Do you understand why a country a few countries are developed, strong and progressive while the rest are under developed, and backward...it is because of the vision of the leadership. If a country has visionary leadership that is able to see the risks and opportunities in advance, it becomes a developed nation sooner or later like China...it is the vision of Mao Zedong that has transformed the poor China into the world's largest economy.
Pakistan still lacks that kind of leadership who rules people, loves people and love by people but at the same time is able to anticipate the future and understand the conspiracies going around Pakistan....other than the founder, we had a one leader who came very close to this definition and his name of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto but unfortunately he was removed and killed by a puppet dictator Zia ul Haq.
 
Dear Pak Friend,

Valid points you make.

A circle is as strong, as clear as its centre...such is the nature of things.

Asian problems need asian solution @RiazHaq might be able to add valuable insights here.

AF is problem for China, Pak and Rus..hence the trilateral effort to find a lasting solution. AF is a curse for all of CA. Sorry for harsh words.

@MastanKhan is veteran and have his strong views....he just wishes his old country to cut the crap and get on with it...hence he beats them all rather hard.

@Khafee your views/analysis from outside of this Axis are very welcome...as whatever happends in South West Asia will effect West Asia.

Iran can be a great positive influence if it honestly join the Sino-Pak and emerging Sino-Pak-Rus Axis...
As I have observed many times earlier...Iran is oblique/opaque for me.. I find it difficult to percieve them.

Maybe @Kaptaan can provide insights to this dilema...his thesis of Pak elite has helped me form a better understanding of the political class.

We must never fail to estimate the situation with our full perception. The eastern hegemon is consolidating power and creating a new narrative which will only lead to broader conflict...since the current regime...will need either internal minorities to blame or Sino-Pak Friends...primarily Pak.

Only a concerted and well thought through design can contain this evil and hatred.

Hope some professional class is alive in Pak to this existential threat...since your political class is..what it is. So can not be relied upon in hour of need.

Modi regime's next internal power consolidation is going to be banning gold and silver...making the masses and middle class totallly dependent on central gov... already the moves are afoot to create corporate agri sector...this will drive the small farms into death spiral.

What we see before us is a cynical exploitation of masses in guise of fake and dangerous nationalism with religious fervor. The big money and current set up of this regime is all geared towards democratic fascism.

This process/mechanism is the biggest threat. BD is already a subserviant client state...Bhutan is an indian colony and SL is between rock and hard place.

Pak needs to get its act together..before..indians dry your fertile lands.

Winning without doing battle is the heighest form of Statecraft.


Yes, I agree that Pakistani leadership needs to get its act together.

But I also think Modi's blunders are far bigger at the moment.

His superpower delusions could prove to his and India's undoing.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2015/10/indias-superpower-delusions-modis.html
 
[QUOTE="Sinopakfriend, post: 9026631, member: 10119"@MastanKhan is veteran and have his strong views....he just wishes his old country to cut the crap and get on with it...hence he beats them all rather hard.

Iran can be a great positive influence if it honestly join the Sino-Pak and emerging Sino-Pak-Rus Axis...
As I have observed many times earlier...Iran is oblique/opaque for me.. I find it difficult to percieve them.

[/QUOTE]

Hi,

Iran is and will keep seeking its own destiny---and will never befriend any nation except for itself.

The iranians are too much in love with themselves.

As for pakistanis---their elected members have too much money invested abroad to have any loyalty left for the nation---. When the time comes---they will all jump ship.
 
[QUOTE="Sinopakfriend, post: 9026631, member: 10119"@MastanKhan is veteran and have his strong views....he just wishes his old country to cut the crap and get on with it...hence he beats them all rather hard.

Iran can be a great positive influence if it honestly join the Sino-Pak and emerging Sino-Pak-Rus Axis...
As I have observed many times earlier...Iran is oblique/opaque for me.. I find it difficult to percieve them.

Hi,

Iran is and will keep seeking its own destiny---and will never befriend any nation except for itself.

The iranians are too much in love with themselves.

As for pakistanis---their elected members have too much money invested abroad to have any loyalty left for the nation---. When the time comes---they will all jump ship.[/QUOTE]
.



Yes, MK, that much is known for Iran..nevertheless...
Regarding your observations of corrupt elite in Pak...what is the solution? Mao moment?

@Oscar has many time highlighted the pervassive instituitional corruption. Found it to be really disturbing. On the other hand..corruption is a global cancer..more so in developing world.

If all you say is valid..which I believe it to be...then why not close shop and hand over the keys to the eastern hegemon..be done with it. At least their dream of grand empire from AF to Balli can be then realised.

Pak is holding their hegemonic dreams in the dust bin...all of South Asia is practically colonised by them. BD is a full client of indians @T-Rex

All things move towards their end. This Dialectic Dynamic. So does corruption. What/how can this be tammed?

If Pak falls entire Asia will be caught in flames...since the delicate balance of power will go with it. And you will have a super-state aka grand indian empire directly challenging China and SE Asia.

We need a comprehensive counter strategy not just war planes....diplomatic, economic and of course, military.

Thanks,

SPF
.
@Riahaq

Thank you for your kind reply. We can not depend on other making mistakes..but ourselves not doing silly things.
The struggle is for Eurasian economic, social and political integeration.

indians have joined to opposing camp with full gusto...with carrot dangling of being declared nuclear power and attaining/bestowed great power status...hence they will continue with their troublemaking...regardless of the blunders they make in their own turf.

Pak needs policy..concrete and tangible policy with our the horizon gameplan..economic, social, politcal, diplomatic and then and only then military.

What are your thought on economic foundations that Pak can lay now and become an Asia Tiger once again?

Thanks,

SPF[/QUOTE]
 
Yes, MK, that much is known for Iran..nevertheless...
Regarding your observations of corrupt elite in Pak...what is the solution? Mao moment?
[/QUOTE]

Hi,

Absolutely---that is what is needed for Pakistan to get rid of this plague of corruption. You cannot build the foundations of a nation on deceit and deception.
 
Dear Pak Friend,

Valid points you make.

A circle is as strong, as clear as its centre...such is the nature of things.

Asian problems need asian solution @RiazHaq might be able to add valuable insights here.

AF is problem for China, Pak and Rus..hence the trilateral effort to find a lasting solution. AF is a curse for all of CA. Sorry for harsh words.

@MastanKhan is veteran and have his strong views....he just wishes his old country to cut the crap and get on with it...hence he beats them all rather hard.

.

Hi,

Americans are a fascinating people---they always look for simple solutions for complex problems and that is how they make their decisions in their daily lives.

There are a couple of quotes that they have---that are very important---.

First one is " Control the Controllable ". Simple isn't it---if you control what you have and what is in your resource and be good at what you have---things will get easier.

Second one---that is the one I love the best---" fear the mountain "---because you will prepare well to conquer the top---. If you are not afraid of the climb---you will not be ready for the climb and the slope will kill you---.

There are two main type of people when fear hits them---one of them---their legs go jello and the succumb to their weakness---for the others---their training and preparation kicks in for survival.

You talked about the disparity in the air force---well that is the truth---nothing much you can do about it but keep on plugging---but there is definitely one thing that can be done.

You build a better tracking system and a better missile defence---which is much less expensive----I mean to say---for every advanced stealth aircraft or a high flyer---its achilles heels has always been a missile---be it a U2 or any other aircraft---one way or the other---a missile will find a way to get to the target if it keeps pace with technology.
 
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Hi,

Americans are a fascinating people---they always look for simple solutions for complex problems and that is how they make their decisions in their daily lives.

There are a couple of quotes that they have---that are very important---.

First one is " Control the Controllable ". Simple isn't it---if you control what you have and what is in your resource and be good at what you have---things will get easier.

Second one---that is the one I love the best---" fear the mountain "---because you will prepare well to conquer the top---. If you are not afraid of the climb---you will not be ready for the climb and the slope will kill you---.

There are two main type of people when fear hits them---one of them---their legs go jello and the succumb to their weakness---for the others---their training and preparation kicks in for survival.

You talked about the disparity in the air force---well that is the truth---nothing much you can do about it but keep on plugging---but there is definitely one thing that can be done.

You build a better tracking system and a better missile defence---which is much less expensive----I mean to say---for every advanced stealth aircraft or a high flyer---its achilles heels has always been a missile---be it a U2 or any other aircraft---one way or the other---a missile will find a way to get to the target if it keeps pace with technology.

Dear MK,

Wanted to keep the Big elephat in the room for later...

However, with Mr. Trump taking charge and appointment of his cabinet do indicate that he will unlease certain creative destructions both within and without..

Contrary to popular lore he is rather smart...New Yorkers talk differently than Californians...one is brash, upfront and the others is polite and PC.

He will engage in trade tussle with China without a doubt...and among many pressure points and policy tools are of course SCS, ECS and indians unleashed.

We are going to see more deepening of strategic indo-US ties...and more brovado from indians...

Is Pak totally unprepared for such a pressure coming from this new strategic configuration?
 
Take out Pakistan then China's soft underbelly is totally exposed. The modi regime has appranetly sold this idea to its master and is working from both Eastern and Western borders to destory Pak State.

As long as China and Pakistan remain committed to fighting these challenges nothing will happen to Pakistan or China for that matter. China is already solidifying Pakistan's defensive and offensive capabilities for this reason. The Americans and Indians are in a total fix because they have been busy trying to isolate Pakistan into submission. China has prevented this from happening and this is sour grapes. It is hard to comprehend for the US and India that China Pakistan relations have obstructed their isolation designs. The US has an enormous dilemma at its hand because it is being defeated everywhere. From the Middle East to Asia and even at home. Trump is the latest incarnation of US demise.

Yes, Pakistan and China will also jointly manage the naval base at Gwadar. This is only a matter of time.
And when has US attempted to isolate Pakistan? You don't invest billions of dollars in a country that you wish to isolate.

You think that China can rescue us from all kinds of problems and threats? You are deluding yourself. Look at North Korea and Venezuela; both failed states in spite of considerable Chinese investment in them.

I have said it before that Pakistan's economy is bigger than CPEC. It is really stupid to put all of your eggs in the same basket. Pakistan should diversify its economic paradigm.

The most important strategy for Pakistan right now is to revamp its foreign policy.

Like it or not, China is really pushing its luck with its aggressive posture in the Pacific region in current times. US is bracing itself for this challenge and China will land itself in trouble (sooner or later). I worry about repercussions for Pakistan in this scenario if it doesn't plays its cards right.

Pakistan fully understands the difference between China and the US. One is interested in trade and prosperity. The other in war and backstabbing.

China and Pakistan share mutual interests on every level. No doubt, Pakistan and China cooperation will continue unabated.
Really?

How deluded one can be. China has disputes with several countries already. And it has not reached Middle East yet.

US and China are largest trading partners of each other at the moment. However, US wishes to tap additional markets as it seeks to diversify its foreign investment and reduce its reliance on China. India is banking on it. Pakistan can too. Your assessment is off the mark.

Yes, MK, China has been working on the paradigm of win-win cooperation and coexistence with indians...and yes, the Chinese thought development will win the indians over. They misread the south asian hegemon.
There is no such thing as a win-win situation in geopolitical matters of this world. Each country has its interests and ambitions. Your country is not an exception to this norm.

Imagine a world where US does not exit but the rest is same. Imagine that China is superpower of this world. Could you address Kashmir dispute? Could you address disputes of Israel? At some point, your country would be forced to choose sides and/or risk becoming controversial. This is the delimma US faces.

How are things working out for you in the Pacific region? Mired with tensions and disputes.

Pakistan brought US and China to the negotiation table during 1960s. However, Pakistan is loosing its leverage in the WEST with passage of time. Misguided foreign policy and corruption are among the factors.

China is working with the WEST for the sake of its interests; Pakistan needs to do the same. Why turn the South Asian region into Sino-Pak versus Indo-US scenario? CPEC cannot function properly in this kind of environment. Some gullible individuals fail to grasp this.

Afghanistan and India are seemingly hostile to Pakistan at the moment and Iran is facilitating them. However, US can be reasoned with. It has supported Pakistan in difficult times. It is still not too late for Pak-US relations. Diplomacy is the only way forward. No state is pure evil; you will find people in the US and even in India who are willing to work with you.

Also, you don't know Pakistani very well. One day, they will praise US. The other day, same individuals will bash it. You will find few Pakistani to be consistent in their views along-with with proper grasp of global affairs. We are an emotional bunch in the nutshell.
 
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Dear Pak Friend,

Valid points you make.

A circle is as strong, as clear as its centre...such is the nature of things.

Asian problems need asian solution @RiazHaq might be able to add valuable insights here.

AF is problem for China, Pak and Rus..hence the trilateral effort to find a lasting solution. AF is a curse for all of CA. Sorry for harsh words.

@MastanKhan is veteran and have his strong views....he just wishes his old country to cut the crap and get on with it...hence he beats them all rather hard.

@Khafee your views/analysis from outside of this Axis are very welcome...as whatever happends in South West Asia will effect West Asia.

Iran can be a great positive influence if it honestly join the Sino-Pak and emerging Sino-Pak-Rus Axis...
As I have observed many times earlier...Iran is oblique/opaque for me.. I find it difficult to percieve them.

Maybe @Kaptaan can provide insights to this dilema...his thesis of Pak elite has helped me form a better understanding of the political class.

We must never fail to estimate the situation with our full perception. The eastern hegemon is consolidating power and creating a new narrative which will only lead to broader conflict...since the current regime...will need either internal minorities to blame or Sino-Pak Friends...primarily Pak.

Only a concerted and well thought through design can contain this evil and hatred.

Hope some professional class is alive in Pak to this existential threat...since your political class is..what it is. So can not be relied upon in hour of need.

Modi regime's next internal power consolidation is going to be banning gold and silver...making the masses and middle class totallly dependent on central gov... already the moves are afoot to create corporate agri sector...this will drive the small farms into death spiral.

What we see before us is a cynical exploitation of masses in guise of fake and dangerous nationalism with religious fervor. The big money and current set up of this regime is all geared towards democratic fascism.

This process/mechanism is the biggest threat. BD is already a subserviant client state...Bhutan is an indian colony and SL is between rock and hard place.

Pak needs to get its act together..before..indians dry your fertile lands.

Winning without doing battle is the heighest form of Statecraft.

Asian problems needing an Asian solution. Good luck defining Asian

It is amazing that everyone except Afghans are called upon to solve Afghanistan problems
 
The Threat To Russia and China From India’s New Pro-US Realignment

Indian Prime Minister Modi's realignment of India with the US threatens to shatter BRICS unity reversing the course away from the US-led unipolar world.


In an earlier article I discussed India’s recent moves and how these threaten to realign India with the US against China and Russia.

In this article I will discuss the background to this and the strategic implications and how these developments threaten the development of the multipolar order that is challenging US global power.

The Chinese-Indian Cold War

South East Asia

Prime Minister Modi’s moves over the last month exacerbate an already existing low-intensity Chinese-Indian Cold War. The main focus of Chinese-Indian competition at the present time is in south east Asia.

India plans to ramp up its commercial ties with the mainland members of ASEAN – often referred to as “the Mekong River states” – by cooperating with them to build the Trilateral Highway through Myanmar and Thailand.

Part of this project links up to the Japanese East-West corridor at the Myanmar port city of Mawlamyine, connecting India to northern Thailand, southern Laos, and central Vietnam.

This map shows the crisscrossing infrastructure corridors that are planned for the Greater Mekong Subregion. India’s Trilateral Highway – labelled the Western Corridor – is coloured purple. Japan’s East-Corridor is coloured turquoise.

It is not a coincidence that these trade networks are expected to interlink with each other. India and Japan are the US’s two most important Asian allies in “containing” China. From a US perspective, it makes sense for India and China to pool their resources in the ASEAN theatre.

On the naval front, as I discussed in my previous article, India is slated to become one of the out-of-region forces active in the South China Sea alongside Japan, the US, and Australia in the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”.

Himalayan Push

The other main theatre of Chinese-Indian competition is the Himalayas, particularly Kashmir, Nepal and Arunachal Pradesh.

Kashmir:

Since 1948 Kashmir has been divided into Pakistani and Indian-administered zones. As I discussed in my previous article, India is objecting to China’s plans to build the Chinese Pakistani Economic Corridor through the Pakistani-administered zone.

In a conversation with Pakistani analyst and GPolit contributor Tayyab Baloch I was told of Pakistani fears that India might exploit the Logistic Support Agreement to obtain the deployment of US troops to Indian-controlled Kashmir. This would be seen as very threatening by Pakistan and might even facilitate the infiltration of Uighur and Tibetan terrorists into nearby China.

Though deploying US troops to this bitterly contested region would be extremely destabilising and controversial, India might be tempted to “justify” it by citing China’s refusal to stop construction of the Chinese Pakistani Economic Corridor through Pakistani-controlled Kashmir and by China’s continued occupation of the Indian-claimed territory of Aksai Chin.

Nepal:


India and China have been engaged in a fierce asymmetrical competition for influence in Nepal ever since India lent its support to Hindu-identifying Madhesi protesters in the southern Terai region during their months-long protest campaign.

The Madhesi were ostensibly protesting Nepal’s plans for federalisation which they claim will dilute their influence in Nepal’s affairs. In Nepal’s capital Kathmandu the opinion is however that India is manipulating the Madhesi protests as proxies to ensure India’s continued influence over Nepal.

During the protests Indian traders claimed it was unsafe for them to travel to Nepal, causing a de-facto blockade of the country which cut it off from most of its fuel supplies. The Nepalese government claimed this was in effect an embargo imposed on Nepal by India.

China for its part has pragmatically supported the democratically elected and legitimate Nepalese government, sending supplies to replace the products withheld by India.

China has also sealed important energy deals with Nepal and is now even discussing an expansion of the New Silk Road through the Himalayans to Kathmandu. Not surprisingly India fears this could lead to the northern Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar becoming flooded with Chinese goods. It is not difficult to see why India might therefore be tempted to use the Madhesi protests to thwart these projects.

Arunachal Pradesh:

A further region of potential Chinese-Indian rivalry in the Himalayas is the contested territory of Arunachal Pradesh, called “Southern Tibet” by China.

The dispute here dates back to the imperial era when the British marked out the border between British controlled India and a weakened China.

The essential point is that India for decades has administered this region without its right to do so being recognised by China.

This dispute is for the time being lying dormant and has largely done so since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. It does however occasionally flare up as a rhetorical whenever Indian-Chinese disagreements rise to the surface. Since China does not recognise India’s administration of Arunachal Pradesh, this territory retains the potential to become a serious flashpoint.

The Logistical Support Agreement give the US the right – if India agrees – to “resupply, repair, and rest” its forces anywhere in India. This could in theory include contested areas such as Arunachal Pradesh.

Deploying US troops so close to the border with China in a contested territory such as Arunachal Pradesh would be seen by China as intensely provocative and would be bound to provoke a Chinese reaction.

That could transform a hereto dormant conflict into an active one, creating a third subregional front of “containment” against China. All it would take would be the symbolic presence of a few US troops – no matter how ‘plausibly justified’ under the terms of the Logistical Support Agreement – to trigger a confrontation between India and China that could be exploited by hardliners in New Delhi wanting to press for a concerted US-Indian joint effort to “defend Indian territory from China”.

“Containing” China In Central Asia

There remains Central Asia as a further zone of potential Chinese-Indian conflict.

India just recently began to accede to the Ashgabat Agreement, a multinational infrastructure development platform between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Oman.

India plans to build a railroad from the Indian-financed port in Iran’s southern Chabahar district to the existing Iran-Central Asian railway network, potentially making India an important regional actor.

This North-South Corridor is expected to run in parallel to the actual one of that name which traverses Iran, the Caspian Sea region, Azerbaijan and Russia.

If completed these projects would connect India by land to the European Union, re routing India’s trade with the European Union through the Russian-Chinese zone of influence in Central Asia.

India’s increasing role in this region could benefit all parties. This however depends on how it is pursued. If India’s intentions are hostile to China and are directed at “containing” China in this region (as they increasingly seem to be everywhere else) then India’s growing presence in Central Asia could have destabilising consequences which would also inevitably affect Russia.

It is too early to say what form India’s role Central Asian will take. However whatever it is it is likely to be significant. Whether it will be positive or negative depends on India. If India continues to commit itself to multipolarity in combination with its BRICS partners Russia and China then its role in Central Asia will be positive. If instead it undermines BRICS unity (as it seems rapidly on track to do) then its actions could turn out to be severely destabilising, turning a hereto stable region into a theatre of a new global Cold War.

Hybrid War Blackmail

Prime Minister Modi seems for the moment to be going along with – even inviting – the US’s anti-Chinese strategic assistance in South Asia and other neighbouring regions. However he may be under pressure to do so.

As I wrote for Sputnik in October when discussing Bangladesh’s simmering Islamic/Salafist terrorist problem, the US and possibly even Saudi Arabia may be planning to turn Bangladesh into another focus of violent Salafist jihadism as the ultimate form of pressure on India. Moreover, the September 2014 announcement that Al Qaeda had opened up a South Asian branch may also have led the Indian establishment to think there is a long-term jihadist threat to India.

The extent to which these fears may have led India away from multipolarity towards realignment with the US is however debatable. In my opinion Prime Minister Modi was already predisposed to side with the US against China even if there were no external pressure upon him.

Nonetheless the “ticking time bombs” of jihadi militancy remain a threat should Prime Minister Modi ever to decide to reverse course, though in that case India would be able to look for support to its BRICS partners – Russia and China – in a way that might actually deepen India’s ties with them.

Breaking Up The BRICS

Prime Minister Modi increasing alignment with the US puts the BRICS organisation at serious risk of falling apart.

India does sincerely wish for the success of certain multipolar projects. These include wider use of national non-dollar currencies in bilateral trade and the establishment of alternative global institutions such as the BRICS New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, in which India would finally have representation proportionate to its size.

However these forms of economic and institutional multipolarity are very different from the geopolitical multipolarity Russia and China practice. Whilst India would obviously benefit from that too, the short-sighted obsession of its “deep state” elites (ie. its permanent intelligence-military-diplomatic bureaucracies) in “containing” China, confronting Pakistan, and conquering the rest of Kashmir blind them to its advantages. This leads to the strange paradox of India geopolitically embracing the same hegemon – the US – it opposes in the economic and institutional spheres.

Russia and China for their part had until recently assumed India shared their vision of economic, institutional, and – most importantly – geopolitical multipolarity. Now it seems the geopolitical aspect of this global vision is something India’s elite no longer wants to move forward with.

Ultimately an intensification of Chinese-Indian competition in a sort of bilateral Cold War can only serve the interests of the US. It not only risks undermining BRICS unity from within. Over time increasingly tense bilateral relations between India and China would inevitably spill over into other multipolar organisations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, undermining their unity and impairing their effectiveness.

It is easy to see how in such a situation things might get so bad that India – contrary to its own long-term interests – might decide to accept whatever deal it was offered by the US and turn its back on the BRICS entirely.

It is not inconceivable that in that case India could become a bridge between a US-sponsored TTIP in western Eurasia and a US sponsored TPP in eastern Eurasia, with India forming the link in some sort of southern “rimland alliance” against Russia and China.

Russia’s Choice

In the event of India’s destruction of BRICS unity, Russia would be forced to choose between its Chinese and Indian partners. For obvious reasons Moscow would prefer this never happened. However India’s actions might leave it no alternative.

If the point ever comes when Moscow is forced to side publicly with China against India, however politely and diplomatically this was done, the US and its proxies in India would undoubtedly use the fact to launch an information campaign claiming Moscow had “betrayed India” and had “sold India out to China”.

Russian diplomacy is no doubt striving to avoid this situation. Due to Russia’s longstanding friendly ties to India Russia is the only country that might have a chance of persuading India that its present course of undermining BRICS unity does not serve India’s interests. Even if Russia could not persuade India to reverse its new policies entirely, Russia might still play a useful role, moderating the policy and acting as a sort of bridge between New Delhi and Beijing.

Realistically however there is little Moscow can do if India’s elites are determined to adopt the anti-Chinese narrative the US has spun for them.

If India irrevocably commits itself to a pro-US anti-China course then sooner or later India will inevitably come under pressure from Washington to loosen its ties with Moscow. This would most probably happen in the context of an artificially created crisis, making it appear that the decision was Moscow’s rather than New Delhi’s or Washington’s.

Concluding Thoughts

Prime Minister Modi’s actions over the past month in the immediate wake of US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter’s visit have caused widespread alarm amongst its BRICS allies, provoking questions as why India is now so suddenly and so visibly siding with the US.

In reality the Indian elite’s obsessions with “containing” China, confronting Pakistan, and conquering all of Kashmir has always made India highly susceptible to US manipulation and provides the answer.

The stakes however could not be higher. With India’s news media and information space dominated by pro-Western narratives most Indians remain unaware of the change in strategic direction their country is taking. The result however might be to shatter the BRICS, putting other multipolar projects such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in jeopardy.

Beyond that it is difficult to see how an intensification of the Chinese-Indian Cold War could not lead in the end to a permanent realignment of India with the US, placing the whole multipolar project upon which Russian and Chinese policy is based in question.

It is not yet too late to turn back. Time is however running short. The further India moves along its present path the more difficult it will be to turn back. Beyond a certain point the momentum becomes unstoppable and the process irreversible.

India is at a crossroads. Either it deepens its cooperation with its BRICS partners, consolidating the multipolar world that is emerging, or it sabotages it and aligns with Washington.

India is today the pivot state, the country that has the decisive voice in whether or not there will be a New Cold War, and has for that reason become the object of every Great Powers’ fancy.


Source: http://theduran.com/threat-russia-china-indias-new-pro-us-realignment/
 
"The Crazy Economic Idea" of Demonetization: India's Prime Minister Modi's "Bank Transaction Tax" May Lead To Larger Conflicts
By Moon of Alabama
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The current Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, has a history of racism and can be described as a neo-fascist. A more pleasant label is Hindu nationalist but that essentially means the same.

It now turns out that Modis extremism in not confined to the nationalist bend but includes some crazy economic ideas.

Modi decided to demonetize the country from one day to another. Every bank note valued at over US$7 was taken out of circulation. The rather crazy idea behind this is to move all monetary transactions to some electronic money systems and to then tax each and every transaction. All other kind of taxes would be abolished.

Only a lunatic without any knowledge of actual economic issues can support such a move.

The predictable result of the sudden demonetization is a liquidity crunch. There suddenly is only half the amount of money in circulation than before. Bills can not be paid, salaries are withheld, services are unused because there is no money to pay for them. The government wants to move the people to open up bank accounts but the banking infrastructure in India is rudimentary, the systems running are old and the software inadequate to handle the masses. Mobs Lock Up Bankers as Pay Day Turns Pain Day in India is a current Bloomberg headline.

The protests have not reached their climax yet but expect some serious riots in India over the next weeks and months should Modi continue on this path. It will be even worse when, in a second step, the new tax system is introduced.

Taxing all transactions is digressive. The poor will end up up paying more than the rich as all kinds of property taxes and the like will end. Estimates say that the tax rate would have to be 4 to 6% on each monetary transfer to be able to eliminate all other taxes.

Manufacturing, which builds complex products from a number of pre-processed parts and inputs, will end up highly taxed. Each screw in a part that goes into a car will have been taxed when transferred from the steelmaker to the wholesale steel deal to the screw maker to the part manufacturer to the car manufacturer to the consumer. With several percents of taxes on each of these transaction this will end up as a very expensive car. There are products which easily include a dozen such stages or more.

“Sin taxes” on alcohol, gasoline and other socially or environmentally harmful stuff will be missing as regulatory instruments. Custom issues and double taxation agreements with other countries will be highly problematic.

The Indian bureaucracy is not the most capable in the world. The banking infrastructure, especially in the still mostly rural parts of India, is only sparse. It is practically impossible to have such a brutal, large conversion of the whole economy without major breakdowns.

The first real economic trouble will be noted soon. Liquidity crunches are usually followed by sharp drops in productivity and general economic activity. India until recently had a fast growing economy. It is very likely to now go into recession.

Taxes on a currency will lead to a shadow economy where people will used other means to pay, especially for small daily transfers. The new currency will probably be cigarettes or whatever can be bargained. The tax income will therefore likely be lower than estimated as the use of official money, then electronic money, in daily life will decline.

Modi was in favor of a transaction tax economy since at least 2013 though it did not play a role in his campaign and policy speeches. The people are unprepared for it and the large bumps that will come with its implementation.

My fear though is that Modi will do the usual nationalist / fascist trick when problems with the economy occur. He is unlikely to give up on his aims. He will rather look for an enemy and accuse it of causing the problems. Divert the peoples attention by a war on – take your choice: Pakistan, China, Muslims in general, any local opposition or whatever. There will always be someone to blame.

So far Modi had a rather successful run as Premier. His tax project may well ruin that. Given his background his solution will likely be to seek a conflict. In a nuclear India with a nuclear arch-enemy Pakistan nearby that is some worrisome perspective.
 

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