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Containment of China & Security-Economic Imperatives for Pakistan

@Sinopakfriend Thank you for tagging me. Unlike most members here I think the greatest foreign policy challange for Pakistan is Afghanistan and indeed failure could pose existential threat to Pakistan that no missiles, nuclear weapons will protect. Pakistan is a soft state - meaning the differant parts that make it are held together with limited glue. This is something most members bravado and belief in thinking that Islam will fortify everything prevents them seeing the reality.

With specific referance to Afghanistan this problem was caused by Musharaf's regime;s abject failure in making sure that a benign dispensation took root in Kabul post US invasion. Any other state would have made sure by being their inside the cockpit that whoever took over in Kabul was at least neutral inside Afghanistan. I cannot think of any country that has allowed a external power to use it's airfields, it ports and logistics to install a hostile government next door. Once this failure happened then this problem was planted. No good now cussing or complaining about Afghans. Pakistan made this problem.

At any rate today those who think building a wall sand throwing away the keys is going to remove the problem are badly mistaken. That is akin to a child closing his eyes and hoping the bad man will go away. The real threat that I am concernred about is the length USA has stayed in Afghanistan and worse that it appears to be open ended. Yes, there might be US reduction but I can't see them leaving entirely. Any reduction will be filled by Indians.

Every year that goes by the Afghan state is growing roots. These roots are spreading slowly because at the end of day it is all about economics. If your young Afghan who offers you better financial deal? Taliban or NUG - which is massively funded by the West and will continue to ne funded by the West. As NUG gains more deeper roots and Afghan national identity gets stronger - it has over the 2 decades with India supporting Pakistan will come under direct threat. A growing Afghan disapora educated in the west is playing a very stromng role in NUG taking root by providing remittances which are getting larger by the year as the diaspora grows.

Durand Line is the 'soft backbone' of Pakistan and Afghan influence that plays on ethnic nationalism will and could create problems for Pakistan. If Afghan/India influence merged with forces in KPK or Balochistan it could cause Balkanization of Pakistan with Pakistan cracking along the Indus divide..

Therefore I see extreme danger from this and frankly I don't see any strategic leadeship inside Pakistan. It's all going to fall on the Chinese to push and point fingers in private to get Pakistan to head in the right direction which I must admit thanks to Musharaf's 2001 failure is nightmare now to fix.
 
@Sinopakfriend Thank you for tagging me. Unlike most members here I think the greatest foreign policy challange for Pakistan is Afghanistan and indeed failure could pose existential threat to Pakistan that no missiles, nuclear weapons will protect. Pakistan is a soft state - meaning the differant parts that make it are held together with limited glue. This is something most members bravado and belief in thinking that Islam will fortify everything prevents them seeing the reality.

With specific referance to Afghanistan this problem was caused by Musharaf's regime;s abject failure in making sure that a benign dispensation took root in Kabul post US invasion. Any other state would have made sure by being their inside the cockpit that whoever took over in Kabul was at least neutral inside Afghanistan. I cannot think of any country that has allowed a external power to use it's airfields, it ports and logistics to install a hostile government next door. Once this failure happened then this problem was planted. No good now cussing or complaining about Afghans. Pakistan made this problem.

At any rate today those who think building a wall sand throwing away the keys is going to remove the problem are badly mistaken. That is akin to a child closing his eyes and hoping the bad man will go away. The real threat that I am concernred about is the length USA has stayed in Afghanistan and worse that it appears to be open ended. Yes, there might be US reduction but I can't see them leaving entirely. Any reduction will be filled by Indians.

Every year that goes by the Afghan state is growing roots. These roots are spreading slowly because at the end of day it is all about economics. If your young Afghan who offers you better financial deal? Taliban or NUG - which is massively funded by the West and will continue to ne funded by the West. As NUG gains more deeper roots and Afghan national identity gets stronger - it has over the 2 decades with India supporting Pakistan will come under direct threat. A growing Afghan disapora educated in the west is playing a very stromng role in NUG taking root by providing remittances which are getting larger by the year as the diaspora grows.

Durand Line is the 'soft backbone' of Pakistan and Afghan influence that plays on ethnic nationalism will and could create problems for Pakistan. If Afghan/India influence merged with forces in KPK or Balochistan it could cause Balkanization of Pakistan with Pakistan cracking along the Indus divide..

Therefore I see extreme danger from this and frankly I don't see any strategic leadeship inside Pakistan. It's all going to fall on the Chinese to push and point fingers in private to get Pakistan to head in the right direction which I must admit thanks to Musharaf's 2001 failure is nightmare now to fix.
.


My Pak Brother,


We agree practically all the time. We are on the same page...opium of the masses has made them utterly blind.

The need of the hour is Dialectic Acceleration!

You have been doing your part and never give up.

AF is the Curse of Pak. When will your people wake up? The State doesn't have brothers...only the interests of the State. Why your people are so navie?

Their Waters are being threatened...their lifeblood is in danger and yet merrily they waste their energies on petty threads with RSS bigots.

I have tried Positivism but, sadly, without any avail. A guest has limits and there is decorum to consider.....

You speak the language of your peoples...perhaps they might listen to you.

Your State is in the eye of storm yet... all we hear is Voices without Sounds...

When they listen to their Friends?

I hope you have been analysing the policy of the eastern nemesis from Agri to Finance..the regime has sold its people for currying favours with the global empire. In guise of Black money crap they have made their own very poor and totally dependent on the regime. Did you know that all of the socalled black money gets recycled and less than 5% is actually is in circulation...same as your good country.

Part of bigger design. I know you will discern it. Dig deeper.

Pak is a pivotal state for global struggle of New World Order... yet your people are so distracted and without any focus.

One wishes your State can act with what its really worth.

Sad!

SPF

The only stupid in this region is Iran which is being ruled by Mullah....Did you know there was a road which used to go from Pakistan to Turkiye via Iran......but....everything got changed when Mullah took charge in Iran in 1979...otherwise this whole region would have been integrated...

Taming of Iran is need of the hour..

KSA and Arabs appears to be got matured now....As US sending messages not to sell latest weapons to Arab world...Arabs are looking for counter weight...China and Pakistan can fit in...what a perfect combo this is...

Turkiye holds lot of influence in CARs...Thats why Turkiye's integration is necessary into SCO...

Indians can be taken care of with lot of ease if Pakistan put its economy in right direction (which I think we are doing with help of China) and at the same time we need stable Middle East, which is getting destabilized by idiot Persians who have a habit of poking nose in Arab world even if no one wants...

Pakistan and Turkiye can safeguard Middle East as we are acceptable to Arabs...China can oversee (guide) it and may shape paradigm for it..

This is my opinion, with which anyone can disagree or oppose...


Young brother,

You know that you enjoy my esteem. You points might be valid...yet you need to see through smoke screen.

You need to defend your own with your own strength. Iran is difficult nut to crack better to be integerated into CPEC.

First you need to take care of the immediate threat to your existence.

How are you going to do that?

Kind Sir, undermining or downplaying Chinese on the globe means putting the Asians on mute mode.


Can we come out of this situation and bring a win win solution for every one? I think yes !

But to deal with this contemporary ever increasing threat, PAF needs to be equipped with 5 to 6 squadrons of either jh-7 b's or J16's or a combo of both.

This narrative might sound pretty foolish to you but, only then China can truly count on Pak -------

the solution is somewhat expensive but when taken into the account the Goliath of an impending anarchy for Asia and beyond , its a fair bet . @MastanKhan


Dear Mentee,

I do very much like you...and you know it. Same for @MastanKhan ...he is Casandera!

Just beating PAF is not the solution...

What can be done now? Otherwise, we remain in spirals falling on themselves... we need outward movements..not inward denegaration.

Please, come up with mindblowing thesis. You can do it.

SPF
 
As the US draws down from AF leaving indians and their AF supporters in charge, a grave security threat is emerging for both China and Pak.

But also its implications for CA and Russia are becoming clearer. Hence, we see greater coordination between Sino-Pak axis and Russia.

How can Pak together with China and to some extent Rus craft and implement defensive strategies to counter-contain the south asian hegemon and its patron.

Critical thing to remember is the fact that Security of China and Pakistan is interrelated.

Take out Pakistan then China's soft underbelly is totally exposed. The modi regime has appranetly sold this idea to its master and is working from both Eastern and Western borders to destory Pak State.

Let us hope that Pak State is alive to these challenges.



The hole in the Heart of Asia

There was one word missing from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s speech at the “Heart of Asia” conference at Amritsar concerning Afghan security and Pakistan. So let me say it:

ChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina

The last few months have seen Ghani and the US government working assiduously to construct a “light at the end of the tunnel” narrative foretelling the decline of the Taliban, one that pushes Pakistan and China to the sidelines while elevating India.

There was one word missing from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s speech at the “Heart of Asia” conference at Amritsar concerning Afghan security and Pakistan. So let me say it:

ChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina

The US obligingly assassinated the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Mansoor with a drone strike inside Pakistan in May 2016 in order to 1) punctuate the anti-Pakistan tilt of US policy and 2) sow dismay and discord within the Taliban and give Ghani the chance for some political inroads.

A key win was luring Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the notorious Afghan warlord (and notoriously long-lived; by the time he was target of the first recorded targeted-assassination by drone strike attempt in US history in 2002 he’d already been fighting inside Afghanistan for over two decades) into the government tent, either to serve as a model for peace deals initiated by Kabul or, in an alternate scenario, hoping that he will now be willing to inflict mayhem on the Taliban instead of fighting alongside it.

Meanwhile, there have been dire Western reports not only of factional feuding within the Taliban, and of competition between the Taliban and ISIS. I might note in passing the magical ability of ISIS to pop up when US strategists most need it. In the Philippines, President Duterte turns against the US military and bingo! He’s battling the Isis-affiliated Maute group in Mindanao.

Recently, the Guardian, loyally carrying water for the Atlanticist line, reported that donors were turning away from the Taliban because of growing civilian casualties from its operations.

You don’t believe that, I don’t believe that, even the guy who supposedly said it, Ramutallah Kakazada, didn’t believe it, telling an Arab news outlet that he had been misquoted.

Kakazada, by the way, is Ghani’s go-to guy for ostensibly insider skinny on Taliban decline. At Amritsar, Ghani quoted Kakazada as an authority for assigning all of Kabul’s woes to Pakistan:

As Mr. Kakazada, one of the key figures in the Taliban movement recently said, if they did not have sanctuary in Pakistan, they would not last a month.

Kakazada is not Taliban, by the way, let alone a “key figure.” He’s ex-Taliban, having served in the pre-2001 Taliban government as consul in Karachi. His claim to distinction is that he “maintains close contact” with the Taliban on behalf of the Kabul government.

Actually, the Taliban is doing pretty well in Afghanistan, judging by a headline from June 2016 in Military Times: The Taliban now hold more ground in Afghanistan than any point since 2001.

Indefatigable US hawks are unwilling to abandon a loyal client and are playing the card that Iran and Russia (not just Pakistan!) are supporting the Taliban, presumably on the theory that inclusion of those hot-button evildoers in the Afghanistan equation will sustain US interest in hugging this geostrategic tar baby.

However, US troop levels are going down and the underpowered Afghan government needs a new sugar daddy to keep the struggle against the Taliban going for another decade.

Therefore, Ghani is signing on to Modi’s anti-Pakistan policy.

Ghani’s speech at Amristar was an extravagant tongue bath for India, extolling India’s utterly disinterested benevolence in assisting Afghanistan, bookended with a resounding slap at Pakistan:

Pakistan has generously pledged 500 million dollars for reconstruction of Afghanistan. This fund, Mr. Aziz, could very well be used for containing extremism …

India has persisted in soft-power and spook-centric involvement in Afghanistan (with concomitant attacks on its embassies, consulates, and assets by the Pakistan-oriented Taliban) for decades.

Now it’s openly dipping its hard-power toe into the Afghan quagmire.

Immediately before Amritsar, the Indian government provided a refurbished attack helicopter, the fourth, to the Afghan military and Ghani has reportedly given India a military aid wishlist which would involve India taking a major role in refurbishing Kabul’s arsenal:

Indian assistance would include resurrecting abandoned Russian-made ANDSF Mil Mi-17 ‘Hip’ transport and Mi-35 ‘Hind’ assault helicopters, MiG-21 fighters, Antonov An-32 transport aircraft, Soviet-era field guns, and T-55 and T-72 tanks, as well as restoring an abandoned ordnance factory near Kabul.

According to Sputnik, Ghani also hopes to get factory-fresh Indian battle tanks, howitzers, and planes.

So I doubt we need to look much further in explaining Ghani’s enthusiasm for inviting the assistance of India — and Prime Minister Modi, the alleged promoter of the notorious Gujarat pogrom of 2002 — into his overwhelmingly Muslim country.

That means signing on to Modi’s strategy of isolating Pakistan, diplomatically, morally, and militarily as a sponsor of westward (Afghanistan) and eastward (India/IoK) terrorism. Well, add southward (Balochistan Province) and northward (Gilgit Baltistan territory) terrorism for narrative symmetry.

The general drift under Ash Carter (who seems to have run US Asia policy during the second Barack Obama administration) seems to have been, what Modi wants Modi gets, not just because of India’s value as an anti-China asset, but also because India might be willing to step up and fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan during the American draw-down … and prevent it from being filled by China.

Hey, there’s China again.

Modi recognizes that the US pro-India tilt plus US desperation to salvage the Kabul regime gives him a green light to go after Pakistan to neutralize its terrorist networks in every direction and at the same time strike at the power and prestige of the military apparatus that dominates Pakistan.

So we see retaliatory strikes against terror basis across the Line of Control in Kashmir; the burgeoning security relationship with Afghanistan; and Modi’s ostentatious injection of Indian interest in Pakistan’s internal security matters of Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan.

But by going after Pakistan, Modi is also going after the People’s Republic of China’s key South Asian asset. By going into Afghanistan, he’s heightening the Indian factor in a key PRC security concern, the potential traffic in militants between Central Asia and Xinjiang.

PRC-Indian competition is coming down to competing visions of vital national interests.

Should India cut the PRC some slack on the nagging issues of Gilgit Baltistan (mired in the Kashmir dispute) and Balochistan so China can push its One Belt One Road to the Indian Ocean, deliver an economic upgrade to Pakistan, and potentially provide a foothold for the PLA Navy at Gwadar?

Framed that way, it doesn’t seem terribly likely.

So should China give up on Pakistan and cede South Asia as India’s uncontested sphere of influence?

Unfortunately, Modi has probably gone too far in his anti-PRC shenanigans for the PRC to turn its back on the admittedly dysfunctional Pakistan regime.

India is now a little too eager to play the anti-PRC separatist card. It allowed a China democracy promotion conference — also attended by a US government representative — to take place at the Indian base of the Tibetan government in exile at Dharmsala. Uyghurs as well as Tibetans (and Chinese democracy advocates and Falun Gong) got a place at the table. That toothpaste isn’t going back in the tube, I’m afraid.

Recently, the Indian government allowed the Karmapa — head of the Karma Kagyu sect of Tibetan Buddhism — to follow the Dalai Lama with his own visit to Tawang.

The Karmapa is the Dalai Lama’s preferred successor as cultural and spiritual leader of Tibetans (though I wonder what the intensely factional Gelugpa religious establishment thinks), at least in international dealings, and apparently the Dalai Lama’s pre-positioned riposte if the CCP, as expected, manipulates the selection of a new pro-PRC Dalai Lama reincarnation on his passing to claim leadership over the Tibetan community.

Tawang is an important Tibetan monastery town seized by India at Independence and claimed by the PRC for the Tibet Special Autonomous Region; the Karmapa’s visit to the town affirming it is “part of India” is a key tell the future leadership of the Tibetan diaspora is in step with the Indian program concerning the border dispute with China and the overall Indian policy for China.

Add to the Tibetan factor opportunistic Indian meddling in Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan to threaten the security and viability of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the major push into Afghanistan — all sensitive Muslim regions with implications for PRC rule over the Uyghurs in Xinjiang — hopes that the PRC will believe in the innocence of India’s intentions and give it a free hand in diddling with Pakistan is probably delusional.

The fate of Masood Azhar is perhaps the most reliable barometer of PRC-Indian relations.

Azhar is a rather nasty terrorist with a history of decades of anti-Indian activity. He is also conspicuously coddled by the Pakistan government. In order to highlight Pakistan’s role as a sponsor of terrorism, India has called for Azhar to be put on the UN Sanctions Committee list as a proscribed terrorist. Using its prerogative as a member of the UN Security Council, the PRC has repeatedly placed a technical hold on the designation, most recently in early October.

I consider it unlikely that PRC-Indian friction over Pakistan will diminish in the near future for the simple reason that the American anti-Pakistan tilt might not last forever — what if Trump tires of both Afghanistan and the Great Game, after all?– and Modi has to assume he has a limited time window to make hay while the sun shines and also create enough favorable facts on the ground to convince the US to stick with the policy.

In the end, it will be up to India to decide how forcefully — or recklessly — it will promote its strategy for regional hegemony.


Source: http://www.atimes.com/hole-heart-asia/
so usa wanna run off form afg due 2 piling up losses taliban as this article quotes hold most land since 2001 regime change and afg expects india 2 come in and take place of usa in providing troops 2 die in field and 10s of billions of $ 2 run afg gov budget and not 2 mention pak will b there 2 make india life IN AFG hell if pak didnt let usa get its grip in afg would it let india =NO CHANCE
 
so usa wanna run off form afg due 2 piling up losses taliban as this article quotes hold most land since 2001 regime change and afg expects india 2 come in and take place of usa in providing troops 2 die in field and 10s of billions of $ 2 run afg gov budget and not 2 mention pak will b there 2 make india life IN AFG hell if pak didnt let usa get its grip in afg would it let india =NO CHANCE

But this is a bigger theatre... and Pak is in the middle of global struggle... your eastern enemy has sponsored terror in you country for 10 years and has killed 1000s of your people and your economy has suffered immensley.

CPEC is under threat...which means Sino-Pak Axis is under permanent threat from this sick eastern nemesis.

On Kashmir front there is constant threat and loss of life in your part of Kashmir..mostly civilians.

Please, connect the dots and see the bigger picture... from SCS to Gawadar there is great challenges confronting Sino-Pak Friends.

Please, see the bigger picture. Time for creative thinking from your political classes. You armed forces are professional and loyal...but...
 
.


My Pak Brother,


We agree practically all the time. We are on the same page...opium of the masses has made them utterly blind.

The need of the hour is Dialectic Acceleration!

You have been doing your part and never give up.

AF is the Curse of Pak. When will your people wake up? The State doesn't have brothers...only the interests of the State. Why your people are so navie?

Their Waters are being threatened...their lifeblood is in danger and yet merrily they waste their energies on petty threads with RSS bigots.

I have tried Positivism but, sadly, without any avail. A guest has limits and there is decorum to consider.....

You speak the language of your peoples...perhaps they might listen to you.

Your State is in the eye of storm yet... all we hear is Voices without Sounds...

When they listen to their Friends?

I hope you have been analysing the policy of the eastern nemesis from Agri to Finance..the regime has sold its people for currying favours with the global empire. In guise of Black money crap they have made their own very poor and totally dependent on the regime. Did you know that all of the socalled black money gets recycled and less than 5% is actually is in circulation...same as your good country.

Part of bigger design. I know you will discern it. Dig deeper.

Pak is a pivotal state for global struggle of New World Order... yet your people are so distracted and without any focus.

One wishes your State can act with what its really worth.

Sad!

SPF




Young brother,

You know that you enjoy my esteem. You points might be valid...yet you need to see through smoke screen.

You need to defend your own with your own strength. Iran is difficult nut to crack better to be integerated into CPEC.

First you need to take care of the immediate threat to your existence.

How are you going to do that?

Pakistan is correcting its path...We are returning to our lost glory...We were distracted from economy by war on terrorism but not anymore..

The traitors are within my country...Pakistanis know about them...As a 22 year old guy, I can feel and say I will play my part for my country...

Pakistani youth is very bright...I can be biased but believe me...We cannot be underestimated.

Pashtun majority areas of Afghanistan can be merged into Pakistan if policy makers care to give this thought a chance..
 
But this is a bigger theatre... and Pak is in the middle of global struggle... your eastern enemy has sponsored terror in you country for 10 years and has killed 1000s of your people and your economy has suffered immensley.

CPEC is under threat...which means Sino-Pak Axis is under permanent threat from this sick eastern nemesis.

On Kashmir front there is constant threat and loss of life in your part of Kashmir..mostly civilians.

Please, connect the dots and see the bigger picture... from SCS to Gawadar there is great challenges confronting Sino-Pak Friends.

Please, see the bigger picture. Time for creative thinking from your political classes. You armed forces are professional and loyal...but...
even in west most of foreign policies r tailered of bureaucreats and dpts pooliticans r 4 public apperance in this regard usa exit from afg is certian and india doesnt has usa level of power 2 fill vacuum which even usa couldnt fill once change of regime in afg happens that front will close on sino-pak terms
 
Well practical we are in limbo:

1) Instead of creating friends we tend to create enemies.Just today people are saying Iran had committed an act of war..This is our shallow thinking..We need to integrate more countries instead of pushing away attitude. Episode started from the day when Musharaf blindly surrender to US and told in a meeting "I have a committment that NA or whatever, but it will not be Anti-Pak"..What happened later on we all know..I don't understand why Pakistan did not force them to extradite Osama either by hook or crook..

2) After US entered in Afghanistan .Now there is Anti-Pak government we then again act like Kid and are continued in that way.Crisis of Leader in-fact we don't have statesman who can think and act..Either we should deal with afghanistan in such a way that the cost of biting paksitan is indispensable .Or make them feel that your future is with us not with India and to integrate them with Paksitan that is mutually benefit..What we are doing is none of it and getting blame too..

3) I really see less hope in our political leadership.. Right or wrong i believe China needs to coerce them you may call it medicine sometime necessary to remove virus from body..Absence of strategic thinking and knee jerk reaction is what we are victim of..
 
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we need outward movements
This!
The longer the spear is the safer the hand operating it ----- this outward expansion of progressive forces out of Asia will follow only after we're done with the short to medium term threats .

P.s : Dear Sir , frankly speaking. I think of myself as too naive to give my opinion on the dynamics of CPEC and Pak China axis vis a vis the strategic game of thrones at Intel level . I hope one day InshAllah I'll be able to come up with my own words---
 
so usa wanna run off form afg due 2 piling up losses taliban
No, they bloody don't want to run away. I wish they did but at strategic level they want to remain in Kabul. Some form of US military presence is here to stay in Afghanistan but they will slowly let India take over more of the routine stuff. That is the problem for Pakistan and China.

And worse is the longer the US stays amnd those against NUG come to the conclusion they are NOT going to leave then more of them will switch sides. Leaving just a tiny hardcore to fight it out for long time. That is the problem.
 
This!
The longer the spear is the safer the hand operating it ----- this outward expansion of progressive forces out of Asia will follow only after we're done with the short to medium term threats .

P.s : Dear Sir , frankly speaking. I think of myself as too naive to give my opinion on the dynamics of CPEC and Pak China axis vis a vis the strategic game of thrones at Intel level . I hope one day InshAllah I'll be able to come up with my own words---


Bless you young brother...for your honesty! No wonder I am fond of you people. Something wierdly beautiful about you lot!
 
Pakistan is correcting its path...We are returning to our lost glory...We were distracted from economy by war on terrorism but not anymore..

The traitors are within my country...Pakistanis know about them...As a 22 year old guy, I can feel and say I will play my part for my country...

Pakistani youth is very bright...I can be biased but believe me...We cannot be underestimated.

Pashtun majority areas of Afghanistan can be merged into Pakistan if policy makers care to give this thought a chance..


Forget about merging with AF, even when given for free and three toffees included. Think about your State and forget about this brotherhood nonsense. Please, do forgive my harsh words..but Charity Must begin at Home i.e. Pak.

You are young and in the process of forming the contours of your mind...please, seek best within yourself. Your State must be above and beyond everything in the world.

Destiny is calling you people...do not waste this opportunity...

No, they bloody don't want to run away. I wish they did but at strategic level they want to remain in Kabul. Some form of US military presence is here to stay in Afghanistan but they will slowly let India take over more of the routine stuff. That is the problem for Pakistan and China.

And worse is the longer the US stays amnd those against NUG come to the conclusion they are NOT going to leave then more of them will switch sides. Leaving just a tiny hardcore to fight it out for long time. That is the problem.


Brother, you need to shake the tree....your people are brilliant and generous to a fault...but their minds have been rusted by the so-called rulers and elite...which according to your analysis are what they are.

Masses need direction...a new horizon. Your Civilisation States go through their cycles...use your dialectict analysis to come to synthesis...

Your people are about to become alive!

Play your part...you know in your heart it is your calling! Nothing gives you more than your true calling...

Apart from beamers and gals...but then pleasures of mind of greater than the pleasure of flesh...

Shape the Dialectic Acceleration!
 
As the US draws down from AF leaving indians and their AF supporters in charge, a grave security threat is emerging for both China and Pak.

But also its implications for CA and Russia are becoming clearer. Hence, we see greater coordination between Sino-Pak axis and Russia.

How can Pak together with China and to some extent Rus craft and implement defensive strategies to counter-contain the south asian hegemon and its patron.

Critical thing to remember is the fact that Security of China and Pakistan is interrelated.

Take out Pakistan then China's soft underbelly is totally exposed. The modi regime has appranetly sold this idea to its master and is working from both Eastern and Western borders to destory Pak State.

Let us hope that Pak State is alive to these challenges.



The hole in the Heart of Asia

There was one word missing from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s speech at the “Heart of Asia” conference at Amritsar concerning Afghan security and Pakistan. So let me say it:

ChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina

The last few months have seen Ghani and the US government working assiduously to construct a “light at the end of the tunnel” narrative foretelling the decline of the Taliban, one that pushes Pakistan and China to the sidelines while elevating India.

There was one word missing from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s speech at the “Heart of Asia” conference at Amritsar concerning Afghan security and Pakistan. So let me say it:

ChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina

The US obligingly assassinated the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Mansoor with a drone strike inside Pakistan in May 2016 in order to 1) punctuate the anti-Pakistan tilt of US policy and 2) sow dismay and discord within the Taliban and give Ghani the chance for some political inroads.

A key win was luring Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the notorious Afghan warlord (and notoriously long-lived; by the time he was target of the first recorded targeted-assassination by drone strike attempt in US history in 2002 he’d already been fighting inside Afghanistan for over two decades) into the government tent, either to serve as a model for peace deals initiated by Kabul or, in an alternate scenario, hoping that he will now be willing to inflict mayhem on the Taliban instead of fighting alongside it.

Meanwhile, there have been dire Western reports not only of factional feuding within the Taliban, and of competition between the Taliban and ISIS. I might note in passing the magical ability of ISIS to pop up when US strategists most need it. In the Philippines, President Duterte turns against the US military and bingo! He’s battling the Isis-affiliated Maute group in Mindanao.

Recently, the Guardian, loyally carrying water for the Atlanticist line, reported that donors were turning away from the Taliban because of growing civilian casualties from its operations.

You don’t believe that, I don’t believe that, even the guy who supposedly said it, Ramutallah Kakazada, didn’t believe it, telling an Arab news outlet that he had been misquoted.

Kakazada, by the way, is Ghani’s go-to guy for ostensibly insider skinny on Taliban decline. At Amritsar, Ghani quoted Kakazada as an authority for assigning all of Kabul’s woes to Pakistan:

As Mr. Kakazada, one of the key figures in the Taliban movement recently said, if they did not have sanctuary in Pakistan, they would not last a month.

Kakazada is not Taliban, by the way, let alone a “key figure.” He’s ex-Taliban, having served in the pre-2001 Taliban government as consul in Karachi. His claim to distinction is that he “maintains close contact” with the Taliban on behalf of the Kabul government.

Actually, the Taliban is doing pretty well in Afghanistan, judging by a headline from June 2016 in Military Times: The Taliban now hold more ground in Afghanistan than any point since 2001.

Indefatigable US hawks are unwilling to abandon a loyal client and are playing the card that Iran and Russia (not just Pakistan!) are supporting the Taliban, presumably on the theory that inclusion of those hot-button evildoers in the Afghanistan equation will sustain US interest in hugging this geostrategic tar baby.

However, US troop levels are going down and the underpowered Afghan government needs a new sugar daddy to keep the struggle against the Taliban going for another decade.

Therefore, Ghani is signing on to Modi’s anti-Pakistan policy.

Ghani’s speech at Amristar was an extravagant tongue bath for India, extolling India’s utterly disinterested benevolence in assisting Afghanistan, bookended with a resounding slap at Pakistan:

Pakistan has generously pledged 500 million dollars for reconstruction of Afghanistan. This fund, Mr. Aziz, could very well be used for containing extremism …

India has persisted in soft-power and spook-centric involvement in Afghanistan (with concomitant attacks on its embassies, consulates, and assets by the Pakistan-oriented Taliban) for decades.

Now it’s openly dipping its hard-power toe into the Afghan quagmire.

Immediately before Amritsar, the Indian government provided a refurbished attack helicopter, the fourth, to the Afghan military and Ghani has reportedly given India a military aid wishlist which would involve India taking a major role in refurbishing Kabul’s arsenal:

Indian assistance would include resurrecting abandoned Russian-made ANDSF Mil Mi-17 ‘Hip’ transport and Mi-35 ‘Hind’ assault helicopters, MiG-21 fighters, Antonov An-32 transport aircraft, Soviet-era field guns, and T-55 and T-72 tanks, as well as restoring an abandoned ordnance factory near Kabul.

According to Sputnik, Ghani also hopes to get factory-fresh Indian battle tanks, howitzers, and planes.

So I doubt we need to look much further in explaining Ghani’s enthusiasm for inviting the assistance of India — and Prime Minister Modi, the alleged promoter of the notorious Gujarat pogrom of 2002 — into his overwhelmingly Muslim country.

That means signing on to Modi’s strategy of isolating Pakistan, diplomatically, morally, and militarily as a sponsor of westward (Afghanistan) and eastward (India/IoK) terrorism. Well, add southward (Balochistan Province) and northward (Gilgit Baltistan territory) terrorism for narrative symmetry.

The general drift under Ash Carter (who seems to have run US Asia policy during the second Barack Obama administration) seems to have been, what Modi wants Modi gets, not just because of India’s value as an anti-China asset, but also because India might be willing to step up and fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan during the American draw-down … and prevent it from being filled by China.

Hey, there’s China again.

Modi recognizes that the US pro-India tilt plus US desperation to salvage the Kabul regime gives him a green light to go after Pakistan to neutralize its terrorist networks in every direction and at the same time strike at the power and prestige of the military apparatus that dominates Pakistan.

So we see retaliatory strikes against terror basis across the Line of Control in Kashmir; the burgeoning security relationship with Afghanistan; and Modi’s ostentatious injection of Indian interest in Pakistan’s internal security matters of Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan.

But by going after Pakistan, Modi is also going after the People’s Republic of China’s key South Asian asset. By going into Afghanistan, he’s heightening the Indian factor in a key PRC security concern, the potential traffic in militants between Central Asia and Xinjiang.

PRC-Indian competition is coming down to competing visions of vital national interests.

Should India cut the PRC some slack on the nagging issues of Gilgit Baltistan (mired in the Kashmir dispute) and Balochistan so China can push its One Belt One Road to the Indian Ocean, deliver an economic upgrade to Pakistan, and potentially provide a foothold for the PLA Navy at Gwadar?

Framed that way, it doesn’t seem terribly likely.

So should China give up on Pakistan and cede South Asia as India’s uncontested sphere of influence?

Unfortunately, Modi has probably gone too far in his anti-PRC shenanigans for the PRC to turn its back on the admittedly dysfunctional Pakistan regime.

India is now a little too eager to play the anti-PRC separatist card. It allowed a China democracy promotion conference — also attended by a US government representative — to take place at the Indian base of the Tibetan government in exile at Dharmsala. Uyghurs as well as Tibetans (and Chinese democracy advocates and Falun Gong) got a place at the table. That toothpaste isn’t going back in the tube, I’m afraid.

Recently, the Indian government allowed the Karmapa — head of the Karma Kagyu sect of Tibetan Buddhism — to follow the Dalai Lama with his own visit to Tawang.

The Karmapa is the Dalai Lama’s preferred successor as cultural and spiritual leader of Tibetans (though I wonder what the intensely factional Gelugpa religious establishment thinks), at least in international dealings, and apparently the Dalai Lama’s pre-positioned riposte if the CCP, as expected, manipulates the selection of a new pro-PRC Dalai Lama reincarnation on his passing to claim leadership over the Tibetan community.

Tawang is an important Tibetan monastery town seized by India at Independence and claimed by the PRC for the Tibet Special Autonomous Region; the Karmapa’s visit to the town affirming it is “part of India” is a key tell the future leadership of the Tibetan diaspora is in step with the Indian program concerning the border dispute with China and the overall Indian policy for China.

Add to the Tibetan factor opportunistic Indian meddling in Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan to threaten the security and viability of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the major push into Afghanistan — all sensitive Muslim regions with implications for PRC rule over the Uyghurs in Xinjiang — hopes that the PRC will believe in the innocence of India’s intentions and give it a free hand in diddling with Pakistan is probably delusional.

The fate of Masood Azhar is perhaps the most reliable barometer of PRC-Indian relations.

Azhar is a rather nasty terrorist with a history of decades of anti-Indian activity. He is also conspicuously coddled by the Pakistan government. In order to highlight Pakistan’s role as a sponsor of terrorism, India has called for Azhar to be put on the UN Sanctions Committee list as a proscribed terrorist. Using its prerogative as a member of the UN Security Council, the PRC has repeatedly placed a technical hold on the designation, most recently in early October.

I consider it unlikely that PRC-Indian friction over Pakistan will diminish in the near future for the simple reason that the American anti-Pakistan tilt might not last forever — what if Trump tires of both Afghanistan and the Great Game, after all?– and Modi has to assume he has a limited time window to make hay while the sun shines and also create enough favorable facts on the ground to convince the US to stick with the policy.

In the end, it will be up to India to decide how forcefully — or recklessly — it will promote its strategy for regional hegemony.


Source: http://www.atimes.com/hole-heart-asia/

Hi,

Occam's Razor-----. The solution is in front of us most of the time---but out of our inherent arrogance---we don't tend to look at simpler solutions.

What needs to be started from the top down---must never be initiated from the bottoms up.

And in a similar manner what needs to be directed at the middle class and the masses---it must not be directed from the top down.

We have seen its effects---what the Saudis and the Emiratis did to Pakistan regarding the Yemen crisis---.

A similar thing needs to be done right now---. Marketing marketing and marketing---media and military needs to be moved---some urgency needs to be created.

I think that china may need to dig in a little more in pakistan's affairs---maybe get Mushhy involved---or certain other like minded people---hire someone to speak for them---someone who can force some J10---J16's JH7B's down the throat of the Paf---.

I think that china also did not anticipate this problem---and as you know that I have talked about it extensively for many a years---.

You have to find someone who can speak up for Pakistan.

Y
You lost more than a decade of economic growth. A strong and prosperous Pak is in China's strategic interests but not in indian's.


Hi,

Please allow me to add---Pakistan lost a Decade of NO procurement of much needed major weapon systems---and that is even worst than the economic growth issues.
 
Hi,

Occam's Razor-----. The solution is in front of us most of the time---but out of our inherent arrogance---we don't tend to look at simpler solutions.

What needs to be started from the top down---must never be initiated from the bottoms up.

And in a similar manner what needs to be directed at the middle class and the masses---it must not be directed from the top down.

We have seen its effects---what the Saudis and the Emiratis did to Pakistan regarding the Yemen crisis---.

A similar thing needs to be done right now---. Marketing marketing and marketing---media and military needs to be moved---some urgency needs to be created.

I think that china may need to dig in a little more in pakistan's affairs---maybe get Mushhy involved---or certain other like minded people---hire someone to speak for them---someone who can force some J10---J16's JH7B's down the throat of the Paf---.

I think that china also did not anticipate this problem---and as you know that I have talked about it extensively for many a years---.

You have to find someone who can speak up for Pakistan.




Hi,

Please allow me to add---Pakistan lost a Decade of NO procurement of much needed major weapon systems---and that is even worst than the economic growth issues.



Dear MK,

Regarding your first contention...yes, Pak has no PR at all. None. Why don't your state realise its own worth. Truly sad state of affairs.

I am afraid..China has to come up with a graceful plan for Pak..since, I fail to see any movement at all by your good country.

As I said...things are interconnected from SCS to your Gawadar. Even the blinds can see this simple relationship.

We agree on the fact that Pak needs to develop a security framework which includes ME. US and China both will support such a Pak role. Certainly with Mr.Trump coming to charge.

What people do not realise that the leverage and influence China has today in Pak is much more than the US ever had. For a simple reason: Pak is critical to Chinese Security.

You dig into this and you will see this fact validated.

Hope your establishment doesn't only rely on bravery..but utilise mind over matter principle.

Otherwise, Nixxon's words might be prophetic.
 

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