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Containment of China & Security-Economic Imperatives for Pakistan

Mangus Ortus Novem

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Jun 7, 2008
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As the US draws down from AF leaving indians and their AF supporters in charge, a grave security threat is emerging for both China and Pak.

But also its implications for CA and Russia are becoming clearer. Hence, we see greater coordination between Sino-Pak axis and Russia.

How can Pak together with China and to some extent Rus craft and implement defensive strategies to counter-contain the south asian hegemon and its patron.

Critical thing to remember is the fact that Security of China and Pakistan is interrelated.

Take out Pakistan then China's soft underbelly is totally exposed. The modi regime has appranetly sold this idea to its master and is working from both Eastern and Western borders to destory Pak State.

Let us hope that Pak State is alive to these challenges.



The hole in the Heart of Asia

There was one word missing from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s speech at the “Heart of Asia” conference at Amritsar concerning Afghan security and Pakistan. So let me say it:

ChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina

The last few months have seen Ghani and the US government working assiduously to construct a “light at the end of the tunnel” narrative foretelling the decline of the Taliban, one that pushes Pakistan and China to the sidelines while elevating India.

There was one word missing from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s speech at the “Heart of Asia” conference at Amritsar concerning Afghan security and Pakistan. So let me say it:

ChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina

The US obligingly assassinated the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Mansoor with a drone strike inside Pakistan in May 2016 in order to 1) punctuate the anti-Pakistan tilt of US policy and 2) sow dismay and discord within the Taliban and give Ghani the chance for some political inroads.

A key win was luring Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the notorious Afghan warlord (and notoriously long-lived; by the time he was target of the first recorded targeted-assassination by drone strike attempt in US history in 2002 he’d already been fighting inside Afghanistan for over two decades) into the government tent, either to serve as a model for peace deals initiated by Kabul or, in an alternate scenario, hoping that he will now be willing to inflict mayhem on the Taliban instead of fighting alongside it.

Meanwhile, there have been dire Western reports not only of factional feuding within the Taliban, and of competition between the Taliban and ISIS. I might note in passing the magical ability of ISIS to pop up when US strategists most need it. In the Philippines, President Duterte turns against the US military and bingo! He’s battling the Isis-affiliated Maute group in Mindanao.

Recently, the Guardian, loyally carrying water for the Atlanticist line, reported that donors were turning away from the Taliban because of growing civilian casualties from its operations.

You don’t believe that, I don’t believe that, even the guy who supposedly said it, Ramutallah Kakazada, didn’t believe it, telling an Arab news outlet that he had been misquoted.

Kakazada, by the way, is Ghani’s go-to guy for ostensibly insider skinny on Taliban decline. At Amritsar, Ghani quoted Kakazada as an authority for assigning all of Kabul’s woes to Pakistan:

As Mr. Kakazada, one of the key figures in the Taliban movement recently said, if they did not have sanctuary in Pakistan, they would not last a month.

Kakazada is not Taliban, by the way, let alone a “key figure.” He’s ex-Taliban, having served in the pre-2001 Taliban government as consul in Karachi. His claim to distinction is that he “maintains close contact” with the Taliban on behalf of the Kabul government.

Actually, the Taliban is doing pretty well in Afghanistan, judging by a headline from June 2016 in Military Times: The Taliban now hold more ground in Afghanistan than any point since 2001.

Indefatigable US hawks are unwilling to abandon a loyal client and are playing the card that Iran and Russia (not just Pakistan!) are supporting the Taliban, presumably on the theory that inclusion of those hot-button evildoers in the Afghanistan equation will sustain US interest in hugging this geostrategic tar baby.

However, US troop levels are going down and the underpowered Afghan government needs a new sugar daddy to keep the struggle against the Taliban going for another decade.

Therefore, Ghani is signing on to Modi’s anti-Pakistan policy.

Ghani’s speech at Amristar was an extravagant tongue bath for India, extolling India’s utterly disinterested benevolence in assisting Afghanistan, bookended with a resounding slap at Pakistan:

Pakistan has generously pledged 500 million dollars for reconstruction of Afghanistan. This fund, Mr. Aziz, could very well be used for containing extremism …

India has persisted in soft-power and spook-centric involvement in Afghanistan (with concomitant attacks on its embassies, consulates, and assets by the Pakistan-oriented Taliban) for decades.

Now it’s openly dipping its hard-power toe into the Afghan quagmire.

Immediately before Amritsar, the Indian government provided a refurbished attack helicopter, the fourth, to the Afghan military and Ghani has reportedly given India a military aid wishlist which would involve India taking a major role in refurbishing Kabul’s arsenal:

Indian assistance would include resurrecting abandoned Russian-made ANDSF Mil Mi-17 ‘Hip’ transport and Mi-35 ‘Hind’ assault helicopters, MiG-21 fighters, Antonov An-32 transport aircraft, Soviet-era field guns, and T-55 and T-72 tanks, as well as restoring an abandoned ordnance factory near Kabul.

According to Sputnik, Ghani also hopes to get factory-fresh Indian battle tanks, howitzers, and planes.

So I doubt we need to look much further in explaining Ghani’s enthusiasm for inviting the assistance of India — and Prime Minister Modi, the alleged promoter of the notorious Gujarat pogrom of 2002 — into his overwhelmingly Muslim country.

That means signing on to Modi’s strategy of isolating Pakistan, diplomatically, morally, and militarily as a sponsor of westward (Afghanistan) and eastward (India/IoK) terrorism. Well, add southward (Balochistan Province) and northward (Gilgit Baltistan territory) terrorism for narrative symmetry.

The general drift under Ash Carter (who seems to have run US Asia policy during the second Barack Obama administration) seems to have been, what Modi wants Modi gets, not just because of India’s value as an anti-China asset, but also because India might be willing to step up and fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan during the American draw-down … and prevent it from being filled by China.

Hey, there’s China again.

Modi recognizes that the US pro-India tilt plus US desperation to salvage the Kabul regime gives him a green light to go after Pakistan to neutralize its terrorist networks in every direction and at the same time strike at the power and prestige of the military apparatus that dominates Pakistan.

So we see retaliatory strikes against terror basis across the Line of Control in Kashmir; the burgeoning security relationship with Afghanistan; and Modi’s ostentatious injection of Indian interest in Pakistan’s internal security matters of Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan.

But by going after Pakistan, Modi is also going after the People’s Republic of China’s key South Asian asset. By going into Afghanistan, he’s heightening the Indian factor in a key PRC security concern, the potential traffic in militants between Central Asia and Xinjiang.

PRC-Indian competition is coming down to competing visions of vital national interests.

Should India cut the PRC some slack on the nagging issues of Gilgit Baltistan (mired in the Kashmir dispute) and Balochistan so China can push its One Belt One Road to the Indian Ocean, deliver an economic upgrade to Pakistan, and potentially provide a foothold for the PLA Navy at Gwadar?

Framed that way, it doesn’t seem terribly likely.

So should China give up on Pakistan and cede South Asia as India’s uncontested sphere of influence?

Unfortunately, Modi has probably gone too far in his anti-PRC shenanigans for the PRC to turn its back on the admittedly dysfunctional Pakistan regime.

India is now a little too eager to play the anti-PRC separatist card. It allowed a China democracy promotion conference — also attended by a US government representative — to take place at the Indian base of the Tibetan government in exile at Dharmsala. Uyghurs as well as Tibetans (and Chinese democracy advocates and Falun Gong) got a place at the table. That toothpaste isn’t going back in the tube, I’m afraid.

Recently, the Indian government allowed the Karmapa — head of the Karma Kagyu sect of Tibetan Buddhism — to follow the Dalai Lama with his own visit to Tawang.

The Karmapa is the Dalai Lama’s preferred successor as cultural and spiritual leader of Tibetans (though I wonder what the intensely factional Gelugpa religious establishment thinks), at least in international dealings, and apparently the Dalai Lama’s pre-positioned riposte if the CCP, as expected, manipulates the selection of a new pro-PRC Dalai Lama reincarnation on his passing to claim leadership over the Tibetan community.

Tawang is an important Tibetan monastery town seized by India at Independence and claimed by the PRC for the Tibet Special Autonomous Region; the Karmapa’s visit to the town affirming it is “part of India” is a key tell the future leadership of the Tibetan diaspora is in step with the Indian program concerning the border dispute with China and the overall Indian policy for China.

Add to the Tibetan factor opportunistic Indian meddling in Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan to threaten the security and viability of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the major push into Afghanistan — all sensitive Muslim regions with implications for PRC rule over the Uyghurs in Xinjiang — hopes that the PRC will believe in the innocence of India’s intentions and give it a free hand in diddling with Pakistan is probably delusional.

The fate of Masood Azhar is perhaps the most reliable barometer of PRC-Indian relations.

Azhar is a rather nasty terrorist with a history of decades of anti-Indian activity. He is also conspicuously coddled by the Pakistan government. In order to highlight Pakistan’s role as a sponsor of terrorism, India has called for Azhar to be put on the UN Sanctions Committee list as a proscribed terrorist. Using its prerogative as a member of the UN Security Council, the PRC has repeatedly placed a technical hold on the designation, most recently in early October.

I consider it unlikely that PRC-Indian friction over Pakistan will diminish in the near future for the simple reason that the American anti-Pakistan tilt might not last forever — what if Trump tires of both Afghanistan and the Great Game, after all?– and Modi has to assume he has a limited time window to make hay while the sun shines and also create enough favorable facts on the ground to convince the US to stick with the policy.

In the end, it will be up to India to decide how forcefully — or recklessly — it will promote its strategy for regional hegemony.


Source: http://www.atimes.com/hole-heart-asia/
 
The American author is living in lala land and is oblivious to the ground realities.

Afghanistan is a foregone conclusion. It is a beacon of instability. No one wants to burn their hands in Afghanistan anymore. An opium driven economy with no hope. Ghani cannot even control the infighting among his own faction in his country. Ghani sits all day long in his fortress hoping the Indians will fix his mess. A disillusioned man leading a disillusioned nation. The US troop withdrawal speaks volume. Pakistan is already tired of Afghan refugees and sending them back in hordes. The Afghan border is being sealed. India can have a dysfunctional Afghanistan. It doesn't bother Pakistan in anyway.

Pakistan has more important projects to deal with. Pakistan is improving its security and economy. Pakistan is cooperating with its ally China to achieve these goals. CPEC/Gwadar and everything associated with this project is our prime concern. India, Afghanistan and the USA don't figure in any of our plans. It is the US, India and Afghanistan who keep blaming and expecting something from Pakistan. It is the US who keeps offering aid to Pakistan in exchange for favors. Not the other way round. We won't fall for it anymore. It is over.
 
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india is welcome into afghanistan. hope they enjoy our hospitality. they don't know what real guirilla war is. they think killing untrained, lightly armed mujahideen in kashmir make them greatest.
 
Take out Pakistan then China's soft underbelly is totally exposed. The modi regime has appranetly sold this idea to its master and is working from both Eastern and Western borders to destory Pak State.

As long as China and Pakistan remain committed to fighting these challenges nothing will happen to Pakistan or China for that matter. China is already solidifying Pakistan's defensive and offensive capabilities for this reason. The Americans and Indians are in a total fix because they have been busy trying to isolate Pakistan into submission. China has prevented this from happening and this is sour grapes. It is hard to comprehend for the US and India that China Pakistan relations have obstructed their isolation designs. The US has an enormous dilemma at its hand because it is being defeated everywhere. From the Middle East to Asia and even at home. Trump is the latest incarnation of US demise.

Yes, Pakistan and China will also jointly manage the naval base at Gwadar. This is only a matter of time.
 
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Take out Pakistan then China's soft underbelly is totally exposed. The modi regime has appranetly sold this idea to its master and is working from both Eastern and Western borders to destory Pak State.

As long as China and Pakistan remain committed to fighting these challenges nothing will happen to Pakistan or China for that matter. China is already solidifying Pakistan's defensive and offensive capabilities for this reason. The Americans and Indians are in a total fix because they have been busy trying to isolate Pakistan into submission. China has prevented this from happening and this is sour grapes. It is hard to comprehend for the US and India that China Pakistan relations have obstructed their isolation designs.

Yes, Pakistan and China will also jointly manage the naval base at Gwadar.

You make valid observations. However, the question is not of courage but strategy here.

What can Pak do to make sure that regional hegemon doesn't cause too much trouble through its proxies in AF... the cost of blood and treasure to Pak has been too great so far...

You lost more than a decade of economic growth. A strong and prosperous Pak is in China's strategic interests but not in indian's.
 
You make valid observations. However, the question is not of courage but strategy here.

What can Pak do to make sure that regional hegemon doesn't cause too much trouble through its proxies in AF... the cost of blood and treasure to Pak has been too great so far...

You lost more than a decade of economic growth. A strong and prosperous Pak is in China's strategic interests but not in indian's.

China is going to play a major role in devising a grand strategy along with Pakistan to ward off the threats from the East and West. Pakistan is not alone in facing these threats. Both China and Pakistan fully comprehend the threats. The Pakistan army has already drastically reduced the amount of terror attacks to a bare minimum. This should give you an indication how seriously the Pak army is taking this responsibility. We will do everything in our power to accommodate China and secure our assets. Failure is not an option.
 
China is going to play a major role in devising a grand strategy along with Pakistan to ward off the threats from the East and West. Pakistan is not alone in facing these threats. Both China and Pakistan fully comprehend the threats. The Pakistan army has already drastically reduced the amount of terror attacks to a bare minimum. This should give you an indication how seriously the Pak army is taking this responsibility.

Of course, very valid observation again.

However, what is your political class doing? What is your diplomatic charge?

CPEC is name of the strategy that you tried in your reply. But CPEC is also seen by the troublemakers as biggest threat to their designs and strategies.

You need a national consensus without any doubts... the rise of facism in your area is quite disturbing...yet one see no discourse even here at the PDF.

Relying on only bravery is never enough... mind over matter!
 
Of course, very valid observation again.

However, what is your political class doing? What is your diplomatic charge?

CPEC is name of the strategy that you tried in your reply. But CPEC is also seen by the troublemakers as biggest threat to their designs and strategies.

You need a national consensus without any doubts... the rise of facism in your area is quite disturbing...yet one see no discourse even here at the PDF.

Relying on only bravery is never enough... mind over matter!

All major stakeholders which includes the political elite and the Pakistan army are unanimously on one page regarding cooperation with China and CPEC.

The few bad apples that make noise are irrelevant. Such bad apples exist in Pakistan and China. We can discard them because the consensus of the majority and stakeholders matters.

Had it been up to the naysayers and the critics, CPEC wouldn't even have seen the daylight. We have come a long long way. Make no mistake about that. Remember how the critics and naysayers used to taunt Pakistan and China. Today, they stand clueless and red faced staring at each other. Plotting and scheming. Fuming with jealousy and anger.

China and Pakistan must continue to work hard at all fronts. That's the only solution to tackle all the problems and challenges. We know who our common enemies are. We must work out solutions to confront them and reduce the risks to a bare minimum. No doubt about it.
 
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China is going to play a major role in devising a grand strategy along with Pakistan to ward off the threats from the East and West. Pakistan is not alone in facing these threats. Both China and Pakistan fully comprehend the threats. The Pakistan army has already drastically reduced the amount of terror attacks to a bare minimum. This should give you an indication how seriously the Pak army is taking this responsibility. We will do everything in our power to accommodate China and secure our assets. Failure is not an option.

If you surrender your own interests in the hands of someone else, you always keep yourself exposed to exploitation. If your answer to all your security threats is 'ChinaChinaChinaChina', then you will find, in due time, yourself to be again used and dumped. China will be USA all over again. China and Russia are getting along quite well these days but both of them are very much looking after their own interests.
 
If you surrender your own interests in the hands of someone else, you always keep yourself exposed to exploitation. If your answer to all your security threats is 'ChinaChinaChinaChina', then you will find, in due time, yourself to be again used and dumped. China will be USA all over again. China and Russia are getting along quite well these days but both of them are very much looking after their own interests.

The typical naysayers I suppose. Your voice has been heard and trashed, thank you!
 
If you surrender your own interests in the hands of someone else, you always keep yourself exposed to exploitation. If your answer to all your security threats is 'ChinaChinaChinaChina', then you will find, in due time, yourself to be again used and dumped. China will be USA all over again. China and Russia are getting along quite well these days but both of them are very much looking after their own interests.

Pakistan fully understands the difference between China and the US. One is interested in trade and prosperity. The other in war and backstabbing.

China and Pakistan share mutual interests on every level. No doubt, Pakistan and China cooperation will continue unabated.
 
@PaklovesTurkiye @Mentee @MastanKhan @Kaptaan @Chinese-Dragon @ChineseTiger1986 @LA se Karachi

Friends, do you not see what is going on here... the fascist regime is bent on sabotaging the Eurasian integeration in collaboration with the troublemakers... yet all the engergies are going into trivia here in this section.

Do take charge and disect what is unfolding in the neighbourhood. Sino-Pak Security is intertwined...this should be obvious.

Looking forward to your valuable insights!

Regards,

SPF
 
@PaklovesTurkiye @Mentee @MastanKhan @Kaptaan @Chinese-Dragon @ChineseTiger1986 @LA se Karachi

Friends, do you not see what is going on here... the fascist regime is bent on sabotaging the Eurasian integeration in collaboration with the troublemakers... yet all the engergies are going into trivia here in this section.

Do take charge and disect what is unfolding in the neighbourhood. Sino-Pak Security is intertwined...this should be obvious.

Looking forward to your valuable insights!

Regards,

SPF

The only stupid in this region is Iran which is being ruled by Mullah....Did you know there was a road which used to go from Pakistan to Turkiye via Iran......but....everything got changed when Mullah took charge in Iran in 1979...otherwise this whole region would have been integrated...

Taming of Iran is need of the hour..

KSA and Arabs appears to be got matured now....As US sending messages not to sell latest weapons to Arab world...Arabs are looking for counter weight...China and Pakistan can fit in...what a perfect combo this is...

Turkiye holds lot of influence in CARs...Thats why Turkiye's integration is necessary into SCO...

Indians can be taken care of with lot of ease if Pakistan put its economy in right direction (which I think we are doing with help of China) and at the same time we need stable Middle East, which is getting destabilized by idiot Persians who have a habit of poking nose in Arab world even if no one wants...

Pakistan and Turkiye can safeguard Middle East as we are acceptable to Arabs...China can oversee (guide) it and may shape paradigm for it..

This is my opinion, with which anyone can disagree or oppose...
 
@PaklovesTurkiye @Mentee @MastanKhan @Kaptaan @Chinese-Dragon @ChineseTiger1986 @LA se Karachi

Friends, do you not see what is going on here... the fascist regime is bent on sabotaging the Eurasian integeration in collaboration with the troublemakers... yet all the engergies are going into trivia here in this section.

Do take charge and disect what is unfolding in the neighbourhood. Sino-Pak Security is intertwined...this should be obvious.

Looking forward to your valuable insights!

Regards,

SPF

Kind Sir, undermining or downplaying Chinese on the globe means putting the Asians on mute mode.


Can we come out of this situation and bring a win win solution for every one? I think yes !

But to deal with this contemporary ever increasing threat, PAF needs to be equipped with 5 to 6 squadrons of either jh-7 b's or J16's or a combo of both.

This narrative might sound pretty foolish to you but, only then China can truly count on Pak -------

the solution is somewhat expensive but when taken into the account the Goliath of an impending anarchy for Asia and beyond , its a fair bet . @MastanKhan
 

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