- Dec 17, 2014
- Reaction score
Suppose it works, then what. The US will not be deterred. China can’t even ensure MAD yet. The arsenal is too small.Carriers are not safe and even becoming sitting ducks in the future high tech wars, be them from China or US.
We can clearly see China has shifted its priority to smaller attack ships especially in recent a couple of years.
The only hope is to declare an exclusionary zone around Taiwan and fight any force that attacks you first within it. At least at the point you can have some justification to be fighting in China, as the US recognizes one China.
China will have to take some blows to prevent the war from escalating beyond the boundaries it hopes to stay within.
Also, defeating the Taiwanese quickly and decisively, even at the expense of high casualties will decrease any help a foreign intervention or resupply could provide. A lesson from the Ukraine war.
Look at the afghans, took the country in 11 days, even with the U.S. troops there, nothing happened. Then in a couple weeks they finished off the holdouts in panjshir and reunification was a fait accompli. Nothing could be done after that.
China needs a shock and awe strategy for the Taiwanese, because the US won’t be shocked and awed by the Chinese, especially not at the their current capabilities.