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China just dumped the dollar system

^^Marshall, I agree but why would the US freely give up its dollar dominance. It has so many advantages. The GBP to USD transition was smoothed over by the fact the same clique controlled both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. I doubt these people are in charge of the PBoC ?? You can't threaten their world order without expecting war.
Who says the US will freely give up their reserve currency status or allow countries to have a choice? The current world monetary system cannot continue on its current trajectory with the Americans printing trillions of US Dollars without expecting other countries to negatively react to the blatant depreciation of their US Dollar denominated assets. Without international support of the US Dollar, it is impossible for it to remain the dominant world reserve currency. This doesn't mean it cannot still be a reserve currency. The USA does afterall have a chokehold with their Petro Dollar system. In my opinion, the US will enforce the Petro Dollar system with a combination of their military and through the CIA, NED, Freedom House and their funded NGOs.

However, this can only prevent the TOTAL breakdown of the US Dollar as a world reserve currency but not its "relative" decline in favor of other currencies. This last part is critically important to why the US economy will in my opinion collapse. Since the US Dollar will lose its complete dominance as the world reserve currency, this will prevent them from printing money at will to fund their balance sheet deficits. In the past, they could effectively steal the economic wealth of other countries because foreign central banks and companies would buy US Dollar denominated treasuries and assets in return for US Dollars that is created from thin air. This costs the US nothing, while they gain the ability to import trillions of dollars of foreign economic output and never fear that they would ever need to pay for it because the US Dollar was until recently expected to retain its title as the world reserve currency forever. So, the collective gross total of all US Dollars given to all countries would on balance always be increasing and never decline. This is the reason why George W. Bush was quoted as saying the US debt was not important. The US budget never needed to be balanced because as long as the US Dollar remains the "dominant" world reserve currency, the debt would increase FOREVER allowing the US to FOREVER steal wealth from the rest of the world, BECAUSE THERE WOULD BE NO OTHER CHOICE since the US Dollar would essentially have a MONOPOLY. However, once the US Dollar is no longer DOMINANT as a reserve currency, I'm not saying it will not be a reserve currency, I mean when it loses it's DOMINANCE as a world reserve currency while still being a reserve currency, the rest of the world will have a choice of where to buy their goods because they could use an alternative world reserve currency for trading those goods. This is how I believe the US will lose its ability to finance their balance sheet deficits via foreign countries, because they will soon lose their ability to steal foreign economic wealth through exchange of US Dollars that are created from nothing.

If the US were successful in convincing China to join the G2, China could then be pressured to support the US Dollar to perpetuity since China would then become part of the Anglo-Saxon world order, aka "Western" world as a junior partner. If this happened, it would be all over for the rest of the developing world and the current world order would be entrenched forever. Unfortunately for the US, China is not cooperating. I'm sure the constant and unrelenting demonization has something to do with that, but in the end, I think it's because China's leadership recognizes that to support the Anglo-Saxon world order, aka "Western" alliance is supporting the same type of exploitative system that persecuted China when it was still weak as so many developing countries still are.
 
The implications of reserve currency status is H U G E. It means the world is working for you. It means the world lends you money for free. It will lift another 200 million people in China out of poverty or send 30 million Americans into poverty. Trust me, if PBoC comes close to threatening dollar dominance, it is a war worth fighting for Americans.
The death of the US Dollar as the dominant world reserve currency is now a foregone conclusion. There has been some talk of creating a one-world currency with IMF SDRs being the first step. I think China may participate in this, but NOT permanently. A one world currency, as the current proposals exist today, is essentially the permanent entrenchment of a world reserve currency to place a MONOPOLY for printing money in the hands of the leaders of the Anglo-Saxon world order (US+UK), aka "Western" alliance and permanent license to steal wealth from the rest of the world, and to GIVE money to their favored friends (allies). I liken it to economic colonialism because it is a form of financial plunder but with an air of respectability since it's done with a suit and tie instead of guns and bullets.
 
Completely wrong on this aspect! One of my friends in China got bachelor degree in Economics back in the mid 1980s. And macro-e is one of her mandatory classes.
Yeah, I was a bit loose here. It was the mid-80s. You can ask your friend if any mainland Chinese got a Ph.D. in econ from a Western university before 1988 or so.

If we believe you, that's a personal study interest of that INDIVIDUAL that was in conflict with the gosl of the government that paid for the individual's study.
He explained that was what his country really needed but the folks who sent him to the U. hadn't grasped that when he was sent to America - in 1981, I think it was.

This was particularly so when China was devastated by foreign forces, including the US.
That's too simple. Over its long history China has had money problems including debasement, counterfeiting, and forgery that wreaked havoc with internal trade, mostly during periods where "foreign forces" played little if any role. Furthermore, far from being "devastated by foreign forces" Western countries instead flooded China with silver in the late nineteenth century, part of the cause of rampant inflation throughout the country at the time. (The U.S. started mining huge quantities of silver whereas at the same time Germany demonetized it. The excess metal flowed to the East in exchange for goods. Sometimes referred to as "the fall of the rupee", since India was also affected.)

A complete free conversion of Yuan serves only SOME Westerners' interest and will damage Chinese interest, as well as ordinary Americans
Some people both in China and the U.S. will be negatively affected by full convertibility. I am aware of the inflation aspect. That's one of the reasons why China needs a mix of other reserves before implementing full convertibility; that won't prevent it, but can be used to moderate disastrous manipulations of the bond and currency markets.
 
Lots of people have the misconception that China's success is dependent on RMB value. it's not.
Quite right. For decades Communist-bloc nations maintained artificially high exchange rates in this mistaken belief. Then the only way anybody wanted a ruble or yen was if they bought it on the black market for much less.

As China is a huge importer of raw materials, a reasonable, controlled increase in the RMB value is in our interests. Not the suicidal shock therapy the US is recommending.
We faced the same situation when we went off the gold standard in the early 70s. The answer to the dilemma was found by the correct employment of currency and commodity futures markets by large corporations and institutions.
 
Quite right. For decades Communist-bloc nations maintained artificially high exchange rates in this mistaken belief. Then the only way anybody wanted a ruble or yen was if they bought it on the black market for much less.

We faced the same situation when we went off the gold standard in the early 70s. The answer to the dilemma was found by the correct employment of currency and commodity futures markets by large corporations and institutions.

It is totally uncomparable. Also, Japan's High Yen policy caused it to crash.
 
Japan also has an enormous level of debt, almost 200% of their GDP.

I don't consider the 200% GDP Debt as big a problem for Japan since it's in Yen and closely held by Japanese households. They could theoretically inflate out of it or go on a shopping spree with the strong Yen. The real problem is they are and always will be a US puppet state. That's what happens when you get nuked.
 
I don't consider the 200% GDP Debt as big a problem for Japan since it's in Yen and closely held by Japanese households. They could theoretically inflate out of it or go on a shopping spree with the strong Yen. The real problem is they are and always will be a US puppet state. That's what happens when you get nuked.

Fair enough. :tup:

Also, the reason they accumulated so much debt, is because they kept trying (and failing), to "spend" their way out of economic stagnation.

I don't see how they can get out of this downward spiral anytime soon.
 
I don't consider the 200% GDP Debt as big a problem for Japan since it's in Yen and closely held by Japanese households. They could theoretically inflate out of it or go on a shopping spree with the strong Yen. The real problem is they are and always will be a US puppet state. That's what happens when you get nuked.
Their 200% debt forces Japan to continue it's low interest policies because every 1% increase would eat up 10%+ of their annual budget. It's simply an untenable situation and the only long-term solution is to inflate out of it since growing out of it is now all but impossible. Japan's debt has become a huge drag on its economy and from the looks of it, their debt will continue growing while their economy stagnates. The only way I see Japan escaping its fate is if it's leaders decide to leave the American alliance once the US economy collapses and join a new alliance with China, something I highly doubt. It's looking pretty bad for Japan's future.
 
Fair enough. :tup:

Also, the reason they accumulated so much debt, is because they kept trying (and failing), to "spend" their way out of economic stagnation.

I don't see how they can get out of this downward spiral anytime soon.
As far as I can tell, the Japanese do not have any ideas besides more pump priming of their economy. They are simply too rigid and fixated on their existing system to realize that without radical changes, they are destined to go down the tubes.
 
Quite right. For decades Communist-bloc nations maintained artificially high exchange rates in this mistaken belief. Then the only way anybody wanted a ruble or yen was if they bought it on the black market for much less.

We faced the same situation when we went off the gold standard in the early 70s. The answer to the dilemma was found by the correct employment of currency and commodity futures markets by large corporations and institutions.
The employment of currency and commodities futures is a great way to manipulate prices and overall trade to ones advantage. It isn't just the large American corporations and institutions doing this but also the American government and its proxies (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc). Combine this with American government manipulation of economic statistics, fake economic news, compliant so-called free media, various coup d'etats disguised as color revolutions and voila, you end up with the miracle of the free market and its magic. ;)
 

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