China after 2023, a talk for Chinese members

[Paul2]

So, what do you think?

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

what is so special after 2023? Hong kong?

 

[shi12jun]

继续发展中国家，直到2049年建国百年我们才进入发达国家。

 

[Paul2]

what is so special after 2023? Hong kong?

Leadership transition, even if Xi is not be going away, there is a very tiny cadre reserve he has just to run the country. And Xi himself is a mortal man too, and he will be turning 69 in 2023. Even if he stays, he will not be able to play politics as actively as he does now. He certainly have to find somebody to take over at least a part of his day to day duties.

Current Chines leadership is the oldest one in a while. 19th central committee has the highest member age since Hu Yaobang's term. Only 2 people on it are of seventies generation, a situation never seen before.

Current provincial level officials, with few notable exceptions, are people in their late fifties already, even if some of them will come to Beijing in 2023, none of them will stay for long. And they themselves will have to share power with a lot of people I would say being quite random. Very few notable personalities are on the horizon, and they will not be anywhere as politically potent as anybody like the current generation of leaders. I think, it's even possible that some complete newcomers in their forties will try to get into Beijing, if not in 2023, then during a mid-term reshuffle or in 2038.

One thing for sure, we will see really a lot of new faces entering the scene on provincial and municipal level as political landscape now in near completely levelled by Xi. Shanghai camp, other than that of Xi's own people, are all expunged. Tuanpai/CYL are politically neutered, with very few of them on even municipal level. Zhou's camp is steamrolled. Bo's gang blown apart to pieces. The last group you can call a "camp" was that of Shaanxi's cadres, and they just got politically nerfed too.

And what comes next is even less clear. When 5th generation leaders came to power, all camps already had a reserve of supporters and cadres from 6th generation prepared, but it's not the case now. None of prominent 6th generation cadres have any kind of "supporters camp" now.

Current forties people are an extremely assorted bunch. I knew few myself in Shenzhen's government, but they themselves say that they have no idea of what is to come after 2023. Most people of seventies generation who got into CPC, did it just for the job. People of that generation had very, very different upbringing, as they haven't seen much of that pre-Deng's Soviet style China, and their adult years coincided with market reforms.

Why I am saying this? This is because these people have very different attitude to "redness." Ask anybody who was born before 1970 of what they think of early nineties, and they will say nothing good, but you will get a diametrically opposed opinion from people born after 1970.

I'd say the only historical precedent to the situation we will see in 2023 will be that of when Deng Xiaoping made his big purge of Maoist, Lin Biaoist, Huaist, Pengist, remnants of the Gang of Four, and ten other "-ist" camps, and then the politics of modern China started anew, from a blank sheet.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

我希望 香港和台湾 回来 。

 

[Mista]

I think it's likely that Xi will continue his leadership because there's no apparent younger leadership in the politburo currently to takeover from him. How many terms will he continue I don't know. I've read that Xi is consolidating power so as to break up the vested interests of local governments and liquidate local government assets to pay down government debts, and there's huge resistance because the local governments' power depends on their control of local assets to a large assets.

So it depends on the state of the economy and how successful is the deleveraging campaign.

Over the long term I think China will continue to open up politically as many of the younger generation of leaders in the cities are educated in elite universities in the West and are very much aware of the rest of the world. They can communicate with and have friends from all over the world, and know how China is perceived with all the 'redness' in the media. They are unlikely to believe in 'redness' or these political slogans genuinely from the bottom their heart.

 

[Suika]

我希望 香港和台湾 回来 。

Taiwan was never part of communist China.

 

[Beast]

Taiwan was never part of communist China.

It's doesn't matter. It still part of China.

I think it's likely that Xi will continue his leadership because there's no apparent younger leadership in the politburo currently to takeover from him. How many terms will he continue I don't know. I've read that Xi is consolidating power so as to break up the vested interests of local governments and liquidate local government assets to pay down government debts, and there's huge resistance because the local governments' power depends on their control of local assets to a large assets.

So it depends on the state of the economy and how successful is the deleveraging campaign.

Over the long term I think China will continue to open up politically as many of the younger generation of leaders in the cities are educated in elite universities in the West and are very much aware of the rest of the world. They can communicate with and have friends from all over the world, and know how China is perceived with all the 'redness' in the media. They are unlikely to believe in 'redness' or these political slogans genuinely from the bottom their heart.

China did attempt to thinking of open up but what makes them more and more restricted on media is the 颠覆活动which the west repeatedly attempt by them to disrupt the progress of China. There is no doubt that the world media is mostly control by west. Hong Kong is a great example how freedom of media has disrupt the society and cohesion. See how Russia, turkey, Iran (all the US targeted countries ) start controlling their media and freedom of speeches after repeat attack by western.

China will definitely welcome any constructive criticism of their system but fact is, most online are just vicious attack to spread hatred and anti-communist. You need to realise the danger China facing. China is a very sensible country. China rather invest the money on research and innovation to increase the living standard of human beings than invest huge money like west on senseless media attack aim at weakening opponent.

See how US innovation are eroding and it doesn't take a genius to know why US lacks even behind China in terms of 5G. With all the money US invested in 颠覆活动, US might even able to get 6G now.

There is still a lot of innovation from US but it's from past 20years of hardwork build up by then. See how US continue to decrease in innovation compare to China. The effect of US under invested in innovation by divert the money spend in media will soon see in coming years when more China higher tech surpass US incoming near future.

 

[Zsari]

Taiwan was never part of communist China.

As long as it is a part of China under ROC, it still is a part of China after PRC became the successor state to ROC. That's how succession works under international law, just as Guantanamo Bay is still Cuban territory even though Castro's Cuba has never controlled the territory, and regardless who replaces the Castro government afterwards, the said territory will still be Cuban territory.

 

[Beast]

Leadership transition, even if Xi is not be going away, there is a very tiny cadre reserve he has just to run the country. And Xi himself is a mortal man too, and he will be turning 69 in 2023. Even if he stays, he will not be able to play politics as actively as he does now. He certainly have to find somebody to take over at least a part of his day to day duties.

Current Chines leadership is the oldest one in a while. 19th central committee has the highest member age since Hu Yaobang's term. Only 2 people on it are of seventies generation, a situation never seen before.

Current provincial level officials, with few notable exceptions, are people in their late fifties already, even if some of them will come to Beijing in 2023, none of them will stay for long. And they themselves will have to share power with a lot of people I would say being quite random. Very few notable personalities are on the horizon, and they will not be anywhere as politically potent as anybody like the current generation of leaders. I think, it's even possible that some complete newcomers in their forties will try to get into Beijing, if not in 2023, then during a mid-term reshuffle or in 2038.

One thing for sure, we will see really a lot of new faces entering the scene on provincial and municipal level as political landscape now in near completely levelled by Xi. Shanghai camp, other than that of Xi's own people, are all expunged. Tuanpai/CYL are politically neutered, with very few of them on even municipal level. Zhou's camp is steamrolled. Bo's gang blown apart to pieces. The last group you can call a "camp" was that of Shaanxi's cadres, and they just got politically nerfed too.

And what comes next is even less clear. When 5th generation leaders came to power, all camps already had a reserve of supporters and cadres from 6th generation prepared, but it's not the case now. None of prominent 6th generation cadres have any kind of "supporters camp" now.

Current forties people are an extremely assorted bunch. I knew few myself in Shenzhen's government, but they themselves say that they have no idea of what is to come after 2023. Most people of seventies generation who got into CPC, did it just for the job. People of that generation had very, very different upbringing, as they haven't seen much of that pre-Deng's Soviet style China, and their adult years coincided with market reforms.

Why I am saying this? This is because these people have very different attitude to "redness." Ask anybody who was born before 1970 of what they think of early nineties, and they will say nothing good, but you will get a diametrically opposed opinion from people born after 1970.

I'd say the only historical precedent to the situation we will see in 2023 will be that of when Deng Xiaoping made his big purge of Maoist, Lin Biaoist, Huaist, Pengist, remnants of the Gang of Four, and ten other "-ist" camps, and then the politics of modern China started anew, from a blank sheet.

Xi implement the long term presidency is to rid of Jiang influence. Jiang knows Xi current anti-corruption campaign is popular. Despite Jiang is 93, he is weighting on his fact, he may outlive Xi presidency and make a comeback on incoming president to be under his manipulation. Xi by having the unlimited term of presidency shatter Jiang any plan to undermine China leadership in future.

China just need to wait for Jiang to pass away before any new chapter of era can happen.

 

[Paul2]

我希望 香港和台湾 回来 。

At the current stage, it will take years for HK mess to settle down. And whatever blunder will come upon is, it will only steel Taiwanese resolve.

The best move there would've been to pretend that nothing is happening, as just any development will be playing against us. But people in BJ are thin skinned, and they barred visits to Taiwan.

Xi implement the long term presidency is to rid of Jiang influence. Jiang knows Xi current anti-corruption campaign is popular. Despite Jiang is 93, he is weighting on his fact, he may outlive Xi presidency and make a comeback on incoming president to be under his manipulation. Xi by having the unlimited term of presidency shatter Jiang any plan to undermine China leadership in future.

China just need to wait for Jiang to pass away before any new chapter of era can happen.

Jiang Zemin's camp is dead and burred years ago. One has to have a very vivid imagination to think that the toad can come back now.

 

[Beast]

At the current stage, it will take years for HK mess to settle down. And whatever blunder will come upon is, it will once steel Taiwanese resolve.

The best move there would've been to pretend that nothing is happening, as just any development will be playing against us. But people in BJ are thin skinned, and they barred visits to Taiwan.


Jiang Zemin's camp is dead and burred years ago. One has to have a very vivid imagination to think that the toad can come back now.

HK mess is due to PRC too soft to handle the tycoon elite. The way HK operates is impossible to survive in long run. All necessity like oil, gas, telecom and electricity are all operate by private enterprise. Private enterprise aim is to make money and they wouldnt care about improving the welfare of people. Look at the top 10 tycoon in HK, their wealth is incredible high for an economy size of Hong Kong.

Large number of ordinary Hker cant even afford to buy a small home and need to resort to rental. It become a rat race for middle class and low income class. Its a disaster waiting to happen for rioting as young people felt no hope for future.

Its good China state companies now start to act and enter HK market and compete with private sector to make necessity more affordable for HKer.

As for Jiang, I think you have underestimate his influence and legacy. This guy is corrupted but he is very smart too. He has lay a huge network for his legacy to continue. Hu suffer badly during his term as chairman and basically a puppet under his control.

Many of Jiang Tiger had hunt down but is not fully complete. Do not underestimate him as long as he is alive.

 

[Paul2]

Large number of ordinary Hker cant even afford to buy a small home and need to resort to rental. It become a rat race for middle class and low income class. Its a disaster waiting to happen for rioting as young people felt no hope for future.

It's 100% clear to me what those Hongkongers are not happy with. It's not their material well being, but the country across the Shenzhen river, and its political system.

Most of kids in black are well educated middle class, who are all well travelled, knowledgeable about politics, and who had their future being secured by their parents for them. They plainly want more power. Even if the suffrage is granted, they will not stop. Then they will want seats on legco, have their own diplomacy, and ultimately sovereignty.

The handover terms. If the old rumour was indeed correct, British were ready to hand over HK without any conditions back in eighties, aside from us not gulaging the populace right away. Prior to joint declaration, China did on record offered British a "Macau solution" a number of times, but it turned out that British were more happy to get rid of HK, than the Chinese side was eager to get HK on board.

Aside from the nominal sovereignty, the Chinese side was very conciliatory, and I think it was Deng's idea to force the 2 systems 1 country because of his own and party's indecision on how to handle it.

So the talks was actually about a compromise in between letting HK's influence "spilling" all over China in case of full integration, and usage of dramatic measures to prevent that (purging tycoons, and most of valued HK's wealth along with it.) If you remember, there were even talks of HK being a Western "Trojan horse."

In eighties, there was a wall to prevent people running away to HK, now we need a wall around HK to prevent the mess from spilling over. HK truly turned out to be that Trojan horse.

If solving HK crisis was as simple as giving every kid in black an apartment in the mainland in exchange for them shutting up, then doing so would've solved the crisis by now. If you don't know, a number of cities in Guangdong were already giving out free apartments to HK youth for years.

 

[Beast]

It's 100% clear to me that what those Hongkongers are not happy with. It's not their material well being, but the country across the Shenzhen river, and its political system.

Most of kids in black are well educated middle class, who are all well travelled, knowledgeable about politics, and who had their future being secured by their parents for them. They plainly want more power. Even if the suffrage is granted, they will not stop. Then they will want seats on legco, have their own diplomacy, and ultimately sovereignty.

The handover terms. If the old rumour was indeed correct, British were ready to hand over HK without any conditions back in eighties, aside from us not gulaging the populace right away. Prior to joint declaration, China did on record offered British a "Macau solution" a number of times, but it turned out that British were more happy to get rid of HK, than the Chinese side was eager to get HK on board.

Aside from the nominal sovereignty, the Chinese side was very conciliatory, and I think it was Deng's idea to force the 2 systems 1 country because of his own and party's indecision on how to handle it.

So the talks was actually about a compromise in between letting HK's influence "spilling" all over China in case of full integration, and usage of dramatic measures to prevent that (purging tycoons, and most of valued HK's wealth along with it.) If you remember, there were even talks of HK being a Western "Trojan horse."

In eighties, there was a wall to prevent people running away to HK, now we need a wall around HK to prevent the mess from spilling over. HK truly turned out to be a Trojan horse.

It seems to look more of political than material but what you expect the ordinary HKer to do what? March and protest in street against HK tycoon and elite?

HK tycoon and elite are no idiots. They are not waiting for that day for ordinary to march on street against them. Do you know why this round of protest is much longer and successful? Becos even the HK elite and rich support it. These true capitalism HK elite who exploit the poor has long spread rumour, fabircate lies that their misery is all caused by PRC, sponsor most of the protest and keep the ordinary HKer to fight CPC. Young HKer with no hope for future are easily misled. When you have no hope, you will believe anything. Root of the problem still need to trace back to basic living standard. It's Abit hard to explain. But I believe you heard the news about Li KaShing sold many of his asset in HK And transfer to Europe. He knows CPC are going to decentralized his wealth and control over HK soon to reduce living gap between the classes of HKer.

 

[Paul2]

Young HKer with no hope for future are easily misled. When you have no hope, you will believe anything. Root of the problem still need to trace back to basic living standard. It's Abit hard to explain.

From my own experience, regular HK proletarian toiling in seven elevens can't give a bigger f**k about HK politics. They are by far the most apolitical layer of society there, and so are the superrich who just bought Canadian passports and went for retirement there.