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Capital suggestion

Dr Farrukh Saleem

Sunday, April 10, 2011


Point Number 1: Arab monarchs are up against an unprecedented wave of national uprising.

Point Number 2: The interests of the United States of America and that of Arab monarchs will be best served by maintaining the status quo.

Point Number 3: Arab armies are either incapable or unwilling to suppress uprisings.

Point Number 4: The US Army is overstretched.

Now consider this brief timeline of events:

February 25: President Zardari meets the emir of Kuwait.

February 26: President Zardari meets Prince Nayef, the second deputy prime minister of Al Mamlakah al Arabiyah as Suudiyah.

March 8: Commander royal Saudi land forces meets our chief of army staff.

March 26: Prince Bandar, secretary-general of Saudi Arabia’s National Security Council, arrives in Islamabad.

March 29: Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa, Bahrain’s foreign minister, arrives in Islamabad.

April 5: The Right Honourable David Cameron arrives in Islamabad.

April 6: Robert Gates arrives in Riyadh.

April 7: General Mattis, commander of United States Central Command, meets General Kayani, COAS.

Undoubtedly, a window of Pak Army’s ‘strategic utility’ is opening up – yet once again. Here’s our current order of battle: I Corps’ 37th Infantry Division is already in Swat. II Corps’ 14th and 40th Divisions are in Okara while the 1st Armoured Division is in Multan. IV Corps’ 10th and 11th Divisions are both in Lahore. V Corps is headquartered in Karachi. X Corps 19th Infantry Division is in Northern Swat and its 111 Infantry Brigade is focused on Islamabad. XI Corps is in Waziristan, XII in Quetta, XXX in Sialkot and XXXI in Bahawalpur. In effect, Pak Army has no ‘strategic surplus’. How about raising a new corps with Saudi and American input?

Back to the Middle East, the three powers that are trying to contain Iran are: the United States of America, Saudi Arabia and Medinat Yisra’el (Israel). At the same time, the House of Saud, backed by the American war machine, is now the biggest defender of status quo in the Middle East – the ultimate counterrevolutionaries.

Here are the pros and cons of Pakistan’s involvement in the Middle East:

Pros: One; additional leverage over the US. Two; leverage over Saudi Arabia. Three; increased military aid. Four; advanced weapons systems. Five; oil on deferred payment basis.

Cons: One; Pakistani workers in the Middle East may face threats. Two; expatriate remittances may be affected adversely. Three; Iran-instigated trouble in Balochistan. Four; potential of trouble from domestic shia population. Five; more trouble in the AfPak region.

Pakistani decision makers must stay ahead of the curve. To be certain, every Pakistani decision – to get involved or not in the Middle East – will have a cost associated with it. Over in Manama, 1,444 km west of Rawalpindi, the defenders of status quo seem to be winning – for now. Can there be a military solution to a political problem? Is it the lull before the real storm? Congratulations; Round 1 goes to counterrevolutionaries!



The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com
 
Back to the Middle East, the three powers that are trying to contain Iran are: the United States of America, Saudi Arabia and Medinat Yisra’el (Israel). At the same time, the House of Saud, backed by the American war machine, is now the biggest defender of status quo in the Middle East – the ultimate counterrevolutionaries.

Here are the pros and cons of Pakistan’s involvement in the Middle East:

Pros: One; additional leverage over the US. Two; leverage over Saudi Arabia. Three; increased military aid. Four; advanced weapons systems. Five; oil on deferred payment basis.

Cons: One; Pakistani workers in the Middle East may face threats. Two; expatriate remittances may be affected adversely. Three; Iran-instigated trouble in Balochistan. Four; potential of trouble from domestic shia population. Five; more trouble in the AfPak region.

Pakistani decision makers must stay ahead of the curve. To be certain, every Pakistani decision – to get involved or not in the Middle East – will have a cost associated with it. Over in Manama, 1,444 km west of Rawalpindi, the defenders of status quo seem to be winning – for now. Can there be a military solution to a political problem? Is it the lull before the real storm? Congratulations; Round 1 goes to counterrevolutionaries!


Now that some of us have gotten the sectarian rubbish out of their system, i hope we can think rationally about events and their meanings, in particular, we should keep in mind the lives millions of Pakistanis have built in the peninsula and gulf --- and the even larger numbers who depend on remittances -- The counter revolutionaries can win all they want, but in the end, the Princes will fail, the people will win -- and Pakistan must stand with the people, not just because it's in her interests but also because it's the right thing to do -- Before your eyes, the world is changing, a area of the world that was once thought to be out of history, is asserting that it is in history -- the status quo cannot remain, instead of riding the crest of the wave of change and becoming the champions that the people want, the US backed Princes imagine they will defeat the people and make the area secure for the US - that the US is a now losing proposition, there is little doubt about, the Princes may save themselves by recognizing that their future depends not on the US but on the degree to which they can create legitimacy among the people
 
Pakistan army and its citizen, are they different identities with their common goals as a void??? One sought profit in raising wars along with U.S and other sees destruction and chaos all around with any thing U.S.
War on terror has push Pak economy years back and if not back halt it for years. At the same time columnist aka think tanks are looking for another millitary involvement and that too against "their own people(ummah)". That would certainly push the extremists against Pak and hence setback to WOT.
 
Capital suggestion

Undoubtedly, a window of Pak Army’s ‘strategic utility’ is opening up – yet once again. Here’s our current order of battle: I Corps’ 37th Infantry Division is already in Swat. II Corps’ 14th and 40th Divisions are in Okara while the 1st Armoured Division is in Multan. IV Corps’ 10th and 11th Divisions are both in Lahore. V Corps is headquartered in Karachi. X Corps 19th Infantry Division is in Northern Swat and its 111 Infantry Brigade is focused on Islamabad. XI Corps is in Waziristan, XII in Quetta, XXX in Sialkot and XXXI in Bahawalpur. In effect, Pak Army has no ‘strategic surplus’. How about raising a new corps with Saudi and American input?

Though the ORBAT is accurate to an extent, but then WTF kind of formula is this to define the ORBAT and then sarcastically suggesting the 'raising' of Strat (Pool) 'Reserves'?!
 

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