@
Icarus - Do you think the ANSF would be able to perform well enough after the American Withdrawal ? Because @
jhungary - who trained them - didn't seem to think so !
@
RescueRanger - Janaab aap bhii kuch bataiiin ?
I think @
jhungary is the best source to turn to in this sense because his experience with the Afghan Forces far exceeds that of my own. I would sure like to hope that they are able to hold off the Taliban, it is in the greater interest of both our countries and the region as a whole because of one of our countries is taken by the Taliban, they're going to use it as a springboard for neighboring countries.
Lol, @
Armstrong your question here is different than the one you ask me before....
Anyway, as I promised you I will let you know my view on the Afghanistan issue post 2014, so here goes
First of all Afghan Security force is indeed a competent force, at least 70% of them Are on par with any profession force in the world, so their capability is enough to combat Taliban alone. However, as I see it, there are 3 Major problem
1.) Number, well now, since the withdrawal agreement had been going on and off and now arguing between stay and not stay. It's hard to actual see what's the situation as of now, even today is Feb1 2014...
Let's for argument sake. ISAF is in complete withdrawal .
Currently Afghan security force numbered 250,000-300,000 personnel. And NATO/ISAF numbered about 120,000. With a complete withdrawal, there will be a net gap of 120,000 void to fill by Afghan Security force, and for most part, you cannot use ANP personnel to fill the role of a NATO soldier. That would make choices even thinner.
And while Afghan Force is competently function as an effect fighting force, most of them would needed to fill the strategic important location currently occupied by NATO force, unless recruitment is up by 200% or more, the withdraw of ISAF will force the Afghan Force abandon some not so important position due to man power issue, that would definitely be used as a breeding ground and breathing place for the Taliban
2.) The CAS issue, with I high column call rate of CAS, the ISAF withdrawal would also mean taking away the close air support asset from Afghanistan. While gunship and transport role would not hurt much, the fast air component would hurt the afghan force the most.
Either the afghan force can develop a Strategy that would allow them to have fast deployment (Increased mobility) and alternative support, this will reduce the Afghan force fighting efficiency.
3.) Trust from its own people. Civilian branding is a strange thing, they will almost alway support whoever that's winning that week. Problem is you cannot control a country when your own citizen does not really believe your side is definitely winning.
So when Taliban return, compounded with the number issue, some of afghan population would most definitely be rooting for Taliban. That itself would be a major problem to the Afghan Force
If the 3 issues above is not properly address, the chance of a stable Afghanistan is not good. Well, I am not going to beat a dead rabbit with it, but 2 thing I know will certainly happen
1.) the ISAF is gonna leave, if not 2014 then it would be a later date. But they are gonna go
2.) the Taliban will return to Afghanistan.
Since I cannot predict future, so you have to interpret my view with your own way
